Conflict of Interests

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

In Conflict of Interests, Nicholas Lemann looks back at Arthur Fisher Bentley’s poli-sci classic, The Process of Government: A Study of Social Pressures, which argues that interest groups don’t corrupt an otherwise-pure political process; they constitute it:

“The Process of Government” is a hedgehog of a book. Its point — relentlessly hammered home — can be stated quite simply: All politics and all government are the result of the activities of groups. Any other attempt to explain politics and government is doomed to failure. It was, in his day as in ours, a wildly contrarian position. Bentley was writing “The Process of Government” at the height of the Progressive Era, when educated, prosperous, high-minded people believed overwhelmingly in “reform” and “good government,” and took interest groups to be the enemy of these goals. The more populist Progressives liked having the people as a whole decide things by direct vote; the more élitist Progressives wanted to give authority to experts. But Bentley, who seems to have shared the Progressives’ goal of using government to curb the power of big business, rejected such procedural tenets. In Chicago terms, Bentley was the rare Progressive intellectual who believed, in effect, that the machine had a more accurate understanding of how politics worked — how it always and necessarily worked — than the lakefront liberals did.
[...]
Bentley’s insights are almost entirely missing from political discussion these days. Only in the realm of foreign policy is it permissible even to use the word “interests” in a positive way, and then they must be vital national interests. In domestic policy, interest groups (and particularly those in that ill-defined but malign category known as special-interest groups) are always the bad guys. So are their representatives in Washington, the lobbyists. We’re inclined to think that the wheedling of interest groups — tree-hugging anti-free-traders, the Sugar Association, AIPAC — distorts politics. (For Bentley, the workings of interest groups — in interaction with one another — constitute politics.) When a politician speaks at an interest group’s convention, we want to hear that he has somehow challenged or confronted the group, rather than “pandered” to it. Partisanship is bad, and “partisan bickering,” which by Bentley’s lights would count as a basic description of politics, is even worse. To an unusual extent, our Presidential candidates this year got where they are by presenting themselves as reformers, as champions of the transcendent public interest — as the enemies of Washington dealmaking-as-usual. For Bentley, there was no such thing as a transcendent public interest, and no politics that didn’t involve dealmaking, disguised or not.

Closer attention to Bentley would help us understand why, as politicians succeed, they become more obviously attentive to interest groups, more obviously engaged in bargain and compromise. Hillary Clinton was this year’s version of the pandering, old-politics candidate, a role that proved more appealing the longer the primary season went on. But when she was a new face in Washington, back in 1993, her identity was pretty much the opposite. Both John McCain and Barack Obama have disappointed some of their early, ardent supporters by modifying many of their positions to accommodate the established and organized interests of their parties. Much of the conversation about the Presidential election over the summer has been about how censorious we should be about their “flip-flops.”
[...]
The heart of “The Process of Government” is a series of dyspeptic rejections of other explanations of how politics works. If Bentley’s strictures were applied today, just about everybody who makes a living explaining American politics (practitioners of what Bentley called “that particular form of activity which consists in the moving of the larynx or the pushing of a pencil”) would be out of business. Under Bentley’s rules, you can’t talk about public opinion, because there is no such thing as “the public” (there are only groups) and opinions don’t matter, only actions do. Abstractions like “the people” and “popular will” have no real content, either. “The public interest” is a useless concept, he says, because “there is nothing which is best literally for the whole people.” You can’t talk about a society as a whole having a collective soul, or about events being moved by the “spirit of the age” or the “Zeitgeist” or by feelings, individual or collective.

On a wing and a prayer

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

The Qantas jet managed to land on a wing and a prayer:

As the investigation unfolds, it’s becoming clear that the 365 passengers and crew aboard Qantas flight 30, which made an emergency landing in Manila on July 25th, are lucky to be alive. The Boeing 747-400 suffered an explosive decompression 29,000 feet over the South China Sea. The explosion — apparently caused by a defective oxygen cylinder in the baggage hold — blew a three-metre hole in the side of the fuselage. In a similar accident in 1996, when oxygen generators in the baggage hold of a ValuJet DC-9 exploded over the Everglades, all 110 people on board perished.

Actually, I’m told that the 10′ hole in the outer hull — light-weight aluminum fairing used to blend the wing into the body for aerodynamic purposes — was largely cosmetic; the hole in the inner, pressurized hull was much smaller.

Anyway, air travel safety has improved dramatically over the years:

Back in the 1920s, when air travel was just getting underway, the safety figures were horrendous. In fact, America’s worst year on record remains 1929, when 61 people died in air crashes — equal then to one fatality for every million person-miles. Given our present volume of air travel, that would equate to 7,000 deaths a year today.

Mercifully, air travel is thousands of times safer nowadays. Over the past decade, the number of air fatalities has averaged no more than one per two billion person-miles. That doesn’t include the effects of terrorism, but even the attacks of September 2001 only raised fatalities to one death per billion person-miles.

For comparison purposes, 1.3 motorists die per 100m vehicle-miles. That’s equivalent to around 30 deaths per billion person-miles when each accident involves at least a couple of fatalities.

Face Swapper Privacy

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

New software offers Face Swapper Privacy:

Face swapping software finds faces in a photograph and swaps the features in the target face from a library of faces. This can be used to “de-identify” faces that appear in public, such as the faces of people caught by the cameras of Google Street View. So instead of simply blurring the face, the software can substitute random features taken from say Flickr’s pool of faces. A mouth here, an eye there. Like this:

Nearly Waterless Washing Machine to Debut in 2009

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

Nearly Waterless Washing Machine to Debut in 2009:

A new washing machine that uses just a cup of water, a pinch of detergent, and about 1,000 small plastic chips to clean clothes may be available for consumers in the UK next year.
Researchers at Leeds University designed the machine, which will be marketed by a spin-off company called Xeros Ltd (which means “dry” in Greek). Company founder Stephen Burkinshaw, a professor of textile chemistry, explains that the machine will reduce both water and energy consumption.

Currently, washing machine use accounts for 13 percent of daily household water consumption in the UK, or about 21 liters (5.5 gallons) of water per day, according to the UK organization Waterwise. Besides saving water, the Xeros machine uses just 2% of the energy of a conventional washing machine. And since clothes come out nearly dry, they don´t require the use of a dryer.

“We have shown that it can remove all sorts of everyday stains, including coffee and lipstick, while using a tiny fraction of the water used by conventional washing machines,” Burkinshaw said.

When doing a load of wash, users throw their clothes in like a normal washing machine. Then a cartridge in the back of the machine adds plastic chips — about 45 pounds (20 kg) of them — to the load. Next, a cup of water containing the detergent is added. After the water dissolves the dirt, the chips absorb the water, without the need for a rinse or spin cycle. When finished, a grill at the bottom of the machine opens to collect the chips.

According to Xeros, the chips can last for about 100 loads of laundry, or about six months for an average family. The company has not yet provided details on what the chips are made of, or how easily and safely the chips can be disposed of or recycled.

Working with Leeds University´s commercialization partner IP Group, Xeros has secured an investment of almost 500,000 pounds ($984,400) for the project. The price of the Xeros washing machines for consumers is “not expected to be dramatically different from (conventional) washing machines,” according to the company.

Toyota Announces Segway Killer: The Winglet Personal Transporter

Monday, August 4th, 2008

Toyota has announced its new Segway killer, the Winglet “personal transporter” — which seems to assume that the Segway needs a competitor to kill it:

Only a year after taking control of Sony’s robotics business, Toyota has come up with a vertical, mechanized scooter (or personal transporter, in future-speak) intended to help people move about in public areas.

Called the Winglet because of its fleet nature, it is the first gadget to duplicate the celebrated, and often mocked, navigation system of Dean Kamen’s Segway Transporter: self-balancing through gyroscopic sensors detecting the gentle directional tilts of a rider.

However, this personal scooter is probably not up to par to the Segway in speed or ruggedness. The newest Segway model can go up to 12.5 miles per hour (versus the Winglet’s 3.7 MPH), and the slightness of the Winglet’s frame probably wouldn’t survive a Police chase.

Check out these maps of GDP

Monday, August 4th, 2008

Check out these maps of GDP, on Megan McArdle’s recommendation:







As Megan notes, “When you see the map, it becomes radically apparent just how firmly Britain was the root of the Industrial revolution.”

We Know How Many Kindles Amazon Has Sold: 240,000

Monday, August 4th, 2008

Erick Schonfeld of TechCrunch says, We know how many Kindles Amazon has sold: 240,000:

Doing a little back of the envelope math, that brings total sales of the device so far to between $86 million and $96 million (the price of the device was reduced to $360 from $400 last May). Then add the amounts spent on digital books, newspapers, and blogs purchased to read on the device, and you get a business that has easily brought in above $100 million so far. (Each $25 worth of digital reading material purchased per Kindle, add $6 million in total revenues).
[...]
Scott Devitt, an analyst at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., predicts that Amazon is on track to sell 500,000 to 750,000 more Kindles over the next four quarters (including this one). He estimates that Kindle owners will buy an additional $120 to $150 worth of books and other content for each device, bringing the total revenues over that time period to somewhere between $225 million and $355 million. Based on that, he values the Kindle as a $1 billion business for Amazon.

Book your next vacation with the interplanetary time-travel agency

Monday, August 4th, 2008

Book your next vacation with the interplanetary time-travel agency, Blue Wyvern suggests, with a number of retro-futurist posters.

(Hat tip to Drawn!)

Who let this guy work with anthrax?

Monday, August 4th, 2008

The scientist suspected in the anthrax attacks committed suicide — but he already had a reputation for erratic behavior:

Bruce E. Ivins, the late microbiologist suspected in the 2001 anthrax attacks, had attempted to poison people and his therapist said she was “scared to death” of him, according to court testimony that emerged Saturday.

Social worker Jean Duley testified at a court hearing in Frederick on July 24 in a successful bid for a protective order from Ivins — who five days later committed suicide — that he “actually attempted to murder several other people.”

Ivins took a fatal dose of Tylonel as federal authorities monitored his movements and prepared to charge him with the murder of five people who died from anthrax poisonining in the weeks after the Sept. 2001 terror attacks.
[...]
An audio recording of the court session was obtained by The New York Times and posted it on its Web site.

“As far back as the year 2000, the respondent has actually attempted to murder several other people, either through poisoning. He is a revenge killer. When he feels that he’s been slighted or has had – especially toward women – he plots and actually tries to carry out revenge killings,” Duley said.

She added that Ivins “has been forensically diagnosed by several top psychiatrists as a sociopathic, homicidal killer. I have that in evidence. And through my working with him, I also believe that to be very true.”

Ivins, 62, who worked at an Army biodefense laboratory at Fort Detrick, took his own life Tuesday as federal authorities were closing in after investigating him for more than a year in connection with the deaths of five people poisoned by anthrax sent through the mail.

‘Major discovery’ from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution

Monday, August 4th, 2008

In the words of MIT’s house organ, 'Major discovery' from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution:

Inspired by the photosynthesis performed by plants, Nocera and Matthew Kanan, a postdoctoral fellow in Nocera’s lab, have developed an unprecedented process that will allow the sun’s energy to be used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen gases. Later, the oxygen and hydrogen may be recombined inside a fuel cell, creating carbon-free electricity to power your house or your electric car, day or night.

The key component in Nocera and Kanan’s new process is a new catalyst that produces oxygen gas from water; another catalyst produces valuable hydrogen gas. The new catalyst consists of cobalt metal, phosphate and an electrode, placed in water. When electricity — whether from a photovoltaic cell, a wind turbine or any other source — runs through the electrode, the cobalt and phosphate form a thin film on the electrode, and oxygen gas is produced.

Combined with another catalyst, such as platinum, that can produce hydrogen gas from water, the system can duplicate the water splitting reaction that occurs during photosynthesis.

The new catalyst works at room temperature, in neutral pH water, and it’s easy to set up, Nocera said. “That’s why I know this is going to work. It’s so easy to implement,” he said.

Scientists Crack Secrets Of 2,000-year-old Astronomical Computer

Monday, August 4th, 2008

Professor Mike Edmunds of the School of Physics and Astronomy and mathematician Dr Tony Freeth of Cardiff University have unraveled the secrets of the 2,000-year-old Antikythera Mechanism:

The calculator was able to follow the movements of the moon and the sun through the Zodiac, predict eclipses and even recreate the irregular orbit of the moon. The team believe it may also have predicted the positions of the planets.

The findings suggest that Greek technology was far more advanced than previously thought. No other civilisation is known to have created anything as complicated for another thousand years.

Exercise in a pill?

Monday, August 4th, 2008

Researchers were hoping to deliver exercise in a pill, but instead they produced a performance-enhancing drug:

In 2004, Evans and his colleagues genetically engineered mice by tweaking a gene called PPAR-delta, a master regulator of different genes. Gene-engineered mice could run twice as far as normal mice and stayed lean even when fed a high-fat diet.

The next step was to find a drug that might mimic these effects.

Evans tested a compound called GW1516, one of a family of compounds that researchers are looking at as obesity and diabetes drugs. But even though it affected the genes of the mice, it did not affect their metabolism.

“There was no change at all in running performance. Nothing — not even a percent,” Evans said in a statement.

Then the researchers thought about what happens in real life.

“If you’re out of shape — and most of us are — and you want to change, you have to do some exercise. The way we reprogram muscle in adults is by training.”

So they trained the mice while some were on the drug and others were not.

All the mice became more athletic but those given GW1516 ran 68 percent longer than those that had only done the exercise training. “The dramatic effect of the drug was stunning,” Evans said.

A drug like that doesn’t help couch potatoes, of course, or anyone with, say, a muscle-wasting disease, so they produced another drug along the same lines:

Mice given AICAR ran 44 percent longer than untreated animals, the researchers found.

“This is a drug that is like pharmacological exercise,” Evans says. “After four weeks of receiving the drug, the mice were behaving as if they’d been exercised.”

Treated mice could outrun mice given traditional exercise training, Evans said.

Everybody’s Second Choice

Sunday, August 3rd, 2008

Michael Schrage cites former Chrysler vice chairman Robert Lutz on prototyping to avoid being everybody’s second choice:

When we showed the early prototype for the new “big-rig-inspired” dodge Ram pickup to consumer focus groups in the early ’90s, the reaction was so polarized that the room practically vibrated with magnetism. A whopping 80 percent of the respondents disliked the bold new drop-fendered design. A lot even hated it! They wanted their pickups to keep on resembling the horizontal cornflake boxes they were used to, not to be striking or bold. According to traditional consumer research strategy, we should have thrown that design out on its ear, or at least toned it down to placate the hatemongers. But that would have been looking through the wrong end of the telescope, for the remaining 20 percent of the clinic participants were saying they were truly, madly, deeply in love with the design. And since the old Ram had only about 4 percent of the market at the time, we figured, What the hell! even if only half of those positive respondents actually buy, we’ll more than double our share! The result? Our share of the pickup market shot up to 20 percent on the radical new design.

Hippies and Nerds

Sunday, August 3rd, 2008

Before going on to describe Lumpenprogrammers — the lowest programmers in the techie hierarchy, the ones who “remediate” old COBOL code — Robert X. Cringely describes two broad classes of “good” programmers — hippies and nerds:

Hippie programmers have long hair and deliberately, even pridefully, ignore the seasons in their choice of clothing. They wear shorts and sandals in the winter and T-shirts all the time. Nerds tend to be neat, the sons and daughters of fathers who in a previous era would have worn pocket protectors.

Nerds carry calculators; hippies borrow calculators. Nerds use decongestant nasal sprays; hippies snort cocaine. Nerds typically know forty-six different ways to make love but don’t know any women.

Hippies know women.

In the actual doing of that voodoo that they do so well, there’s a major difference, too, in the way that hippies and nerds write computer code. Hippies tend to do the right things poorly; nerds tend to do the wrong things well. Hippie programmers are very good at getting a sense of the correct shape of a problem and how to solve it, but when it comes to the actual code, they can be sloppy and make major errors through pure boredom. For hippie programmers, the problem is solved when they’ve figured out how to solve it rather than later, when the work is finished and the problem no longer exists. Hippies live in a world of ideas. In contrast, the nerds are so tightly focused on the trivial details of making a program feature work efficiently that they can completely fail to notice major flaws in the overall concept of the project.

Yes, this is an over-generalization, but it is also correct.

Serious Power Trips

Saturday, August 2nd, 2008

Serious games and simulations can lead to serious power trips:

Policy and custom expressly forbid the president of the United States from active participation in decision making during national-security war games. The secretary of state plays, the joint chiefs play, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency plays, only the president does not. The U.S. national-security establishment has decreed that no one should know how the president might react to speculative scenarios. Presidential advisers in real national-security emergencies should not be influenced by prior knowledge of how the president responded to a simulated crisis. Nor should potential enemies of the United States. The president should in effect be above simulated frays.

This points to a larger problem:

The Pentagon discovered during 1960s-era war-game exercises that pitting officers of different ranks against one another didn’t work. Well-meaning military innovators had believed that mixed-rank exercises would enhance career development and encourage nonhierarchical communication, but the actual result was rivalry and recrimination. “The Pentagon found out that you don’t play general against colonels,” recall defense-simulation designer Clark Abt. “You play peer to peer.”

In fact, Princeton mathematical economist Martin Shubik has pointed out that all models have two sets of rules: the rules of the model itself and the rules of the larger world it inhabits. Beating the boss is a pyrrhic victory.