Fight Quest

Saturday, January 5th, 2008

If you’ve been enjoying Human Weapon, might I recommend Discovery Channel’s Fight Quest?

Some guys like to fight. The rest of us like to watch.

Welcome to Fight Quest, airing Fridays at 10 p.m. ET/PT starting Jan. 4. A blend of cultural immersion and good old-fashioned smackdown, the series follows seasoned mixed martial arts fighter Jimmy Smith and 25-year-old rookie Doug Anderson as they travel the globe, adding fight styles from Kali to kickboxing to their repertoire.

In each episode, Jimmy and Doug will explore a new location identified with a style of fighting, such as kung fu in Dengfeng, China, and boxing in Mexico City, Mexico. There, after first immersing themselves in the sounds, smells and tastes of the local scene, the two guys will separate to train with local masters of that method — sometimes an ancient art of combat, and other times a modern form of butt-kicking. After several days of intense instruction, Jimmy and Doug will each face off against a local in a no-holds-barred test of skill.

Chaotic Furrballs

Saturday, January 5th, 2008

In Chaotic Furrballs, Kevin Meyer compares Italian traffic to lean manufacturing:

So with our [U.S.] “highly disciplined system” we have slugs (batches…) of traffic starting then stopping at the next traffic control, while in Italy it may move a little slower… but it is always moving. Very rarely did I come to a full stop. Those of us in the lean manufacturing would should immediately recognize the consequence of continual versus batch flow… steadier and higher output.

Google: the chainmail version

Friday, January 4th, 2008

The Official Google Blog sometimes highlights the non-work interests and pastimes of individual Googlers, like this chainmail banner created by data center technician TJ Riley:

For the numbers-minded, here are some details:
  • The entire project is exactly 25,829 rings.
  • Dimensions: 67 units by 44 units (c. 66″ x 27″)
  • Rings: 1/4″ 16-gauge aluminum; the silver is bright aluminum and the inlay uses colored anodized aluminum.
  • The entire thing is the traditional 4 in 1 pattern turned 90 degrees.

Hasbro’s Little Cash Cows

Friday, January 4th, 2008

In Hasbro's Little Cash Cows, Christopher Palmeri of BusinessWeek notes that “sales of the company’s toys for girls have soared from $60 million to $600 million in five years,” powered by its Littlest Pet Shop line of inch-tall animal figures:

The girls’ toys revival at Hasbro dates back to the relaunch of My Little Pony, a big hit in the 1980s. While archrival Mattel (MAT) and newcomer MGA Entertainment were battling it out with their Barbie and Bratz dolls, Hasbro reintroduced its plastic ponies (with long, brushable hair) in 2003. “Everyone was complaining that dolls had gotten edgy—that girls were growing up too fast,” John says. “We went with a very sweet back-to-basics product.”

In its marketing, Hasbro played up nostalgia for the toy. One ad in Parenting magazine promised moms they could “share those wonderful memories” of My Little Pony with their daughters. Hasbro even decided to keep the original theme song (My little pony, my little pony/Will there be exciting sights to see?/Where will you wander? Hither and yonder).

After that, Verrecchia wanted a whole portfolio of girls’ brands. Executives decided to look methodically for toys for each age group. My Little Pony targeted girls age two to five; John and her team figured Littlest Pet Shop could be pitched to six- to eight-year-olds.

In redesigning Littlest Pet Shop, John’s group mixed the modern with the traditional. They gave the animals the big, vulnerable eyes made popular by Japanese animators. They toned down the pink packaging and went with more contemporary purple and green. But they kept the figures the same size as before—much smaller than most dolls—knowing girls like to collect and carry little things.

Then John applied a few time-tested lessons from boys’ action figures. The company created more than 300 versions of the animals, changing them every few months to keep kids interested. And for the holiday season there’s Littlest Pet Shop bobble heads ($4), electronic diaries ($19), and plug-’n'-play TV games ($25).

Now comes the digital strategy—which will sound familiar to those who know about Webkinz. Hasbro has started selling what it calls Virtual Interactive Pets on its Web site and those of a few retailers. The bigger, $15 dolls come with a secret code that unlocks an online world where kids can create virtual pets and play games. Hasbro hopes the new line, which goes national in February, will draw in girls older than eight.

Sometime later in 2008, Hasbro, through a relationship with video-game maker Electronic Arts, will introduce Littlest Pet Shop games for Nintendo’s handheld DS and Wii game platforms. Maybe then boys will want to play, too.

Microsoft’s Games Get Serious

Thursday, January 3rd, 2008

Microsoft's Games Get Serious as they finally open up their Flight Simulator — they call the package ESP:

It’s the first time a major software company has entered the “serious”—or nonentertainment—games arena with a product to help other corporations build their own employee-training video games in-house via a simple, Windows-based program. And priced at only $799 per license, Microsoft ESP poses a cost-effective threat to smaller studios that develop custom games—at a cost of $500,000 and up per game—for corporations, hospitals, and the armed forces.

For years, companies such as military contractor Northrop Grumman (NOC) had contacted Microsoft, asking if they could license the game engine for Flight Simulator. “Since the late 1990s, there have been ongoing inquiries to our game studio by various companies who ask, ‘Can we use this for training? How can we make it do this or that?’” recalls David Boker, senior director of the Business Development Group at Microsoft’s Aces Studio, one of Microsoft’s game studios, where ESP and Flight Simulator were developed. But at first, Microsoft wasn’t interested.
[...]
Northrop Grumman, for instance, has been beta-testing the ESP platform and its early incarnations for the past several months. It saw significant slashes in budgets and schedules. One team used ESP to create a prototype of an aviation simulation training game—in only three days.

“Typically, the same type of simulation would have taken six to 18 months to make from scratch,” says Randy Schmidt, a technical director at Northrop Grumman. “I was surprised.” Schmidt says the Windows-based platform and the easy-to-use interface of the software made it simple to choose from a library of cockpit, terrain, and other design elements—all originally created for the Flight Simulator video game—and combine them with Northrop Grumman’s own visuals and software.

Schmidt adds that to build a complete training aviation simulation—beyond the prototype phase—with realistic 3D graphics from scratch and for a military customer, could still cost well into the tens of millions of dollars. But the cost savings, in terms of purchasing the $799 license for Microsoft ESP that can be used for multiple serious games, is vast, he says. The Windows interface is designed so that in-house designers can create a simulation without writing new code (so no expense of hiring an outside developer). “The entertainment-game graphics are quite realistic,” he says. “Some of the military sims look like poor-man’s versions of video games.”

Tribes of Terror

Thursday, January 3rd, 2008

In Tribes of Terror, Stanley Kurtz looks at the Waziristan problem:

Lord Curzon, Britain’s viceroy of India and foreign secretary during the initial decades of the 20th century, once declared:
No patchwork scheme — and all our present recent schemes…are mere patchwork — will settle the Waziristan problem. Not until the military steam-roller has passed over the country from end to end, will there be peace. But I do not want to be the person to start that machine.

Nowadays, this region of what is today northwest Pakistan is variously called “Al-Qaedastan,” “Talibanistan,” or more properly, the “Islamic Emirate of Waziristan.” Pakistan gave up South Waziristan to the Taliban in Spring 2006, after taking heavy casualties in a failed four-year campaign to consolidate control of this fierce tribal region. By the fall, Pakistan had effectively abandoned North Waziristan. The nominal truce — actually closer to a surrender — was signed in a soccer stadium, beneath al-Qaeda’s black flag.

Having recovered the safe haven once denied them by America’s invasion of Afghanistan, al-Qaeda and the Taliban have gathered the diaspora of the worldwide Islamist revolution into Waziristan. Slipping to safety from Tora Bora, Osama bin Laden himself almost certainly escaped across its border. Now Muslim punjabis who fight the Indian army in Kashmir, Chechen opponents of Russia, and many more Islamist terror groups congregate, recuperate, train, and confer in Waziristan. This past fall’s terror plotters in Germany and Denmark allegedly trained in Waziristan, as did those who hoped to highjack transatlantic planes leaving from Britain’s Heathrow Airport in 2006. The crimson currents flowing across what Samuel Huntington once famously dubbed “Islam’s bloody borders” now seem to emanate from Waziristan.

Slowly but surely, the Islamic Emirate’s writ is pushing beyond Waziristan itself, to encompass other sections of Pakistan’s mountainous tribal regions — thereby fueling the ongoing insurgency across the border in Afghanistan. With a third of Pakistanis in a recent poll expressing favorable views of al-Qaeda, and 49% registering favorable opinions of local jihadi terror groups, the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan may yet conquer Pakistan. Fear of a widening Islamist rebellion in this nuclear-armed state was General Musharraf’s stated reason for the recent imposition of a state of emergency. And in fact Osama bin Laden publicly called for the overthrow of Musharraf’s government this past September. It is for fear of provoking such a disastrous revolt that we have so far dared not loose the American military steamroller in Waziristan. When Lord Curzon hesitated to start up the British military machine, he was revolving in his mind the costs and consequences of the great 1857 Indian “Mutiny” and of an 1894 jihadist revolt in South Waziristan. Surely, Curzon would have appreciated our dilemma today.

Some history:

The British solution in Waziristan was to rule indirectly, through sympathetic tribal maliks (elders), who received preferred treatment and financial support. By treaty and tradition, the laws of what was then British India governed only 100 yards on either side of Waziristan’s main roads. Beyond that, the maliks and tribal custom ruled. Yet Britain did post a representative in Waziristan, a “political agent” or “P.A.,” whose headquarters was protected by an elite military force, and who enjoyed extraordinary powers to reward cooperative maliks and to punish offenders. The political agent was authorized to arrest and jail the male kin of miscreants on the run (particularly important given the organization of Waziristan’s tribes around male descent groups). And in special cases, the political agent could blockade and even destroy entire settlements. After achieving independence in 1947, Pakistan followed this British scheme, indirectly governing its many tribal “agencies” and posting P.A.s who enjoyed the same extraordinary powers as under the British.

Akbar Ahmed, a British-trained social anthropologist, served as Pakistan’s P.A. in South Waziristan from 1978 through 1980. Drawing on his academic background and political experience, he has written a fascinating book about his days as “king” (as the tribesmen used to call the political agent). First published in 1983 under the title Religion and Politics in Muslim Society, the book was reissued in 1991, and revised and released again in 2004, each time under the title Resistance and Control in Pakistan. Its obscure title and conventional academic introductory chapters explain why it has been neglected. Yet that neglect is a serious mistake. Given Waziristan’s new-found status as the haven and headquarters of America’s global enemies, Ahmed’s book is an indispensable guide to thinking through the past and anticipating the future of the war on terror. In addition to shedding new and unexpected light on the origins of the Taliban, Resistance and Control in Pakistan offers what is, in effect, a philosophy of rule in Muslim tribal societies — a conception of government that has direct relevance to our struggle to stabilize Iraq.

What a delightful place:

The first thing that strikes the reader of Resistance and Control in Pakistan is the pervasive nature of political violence in South Waziristan. And here, in contrast to his later work, Ahmed himself is at pains to emphasize the point. A popular novelist of the British Raj called Waziristan tribesmen “physically the hardest people on earth.” British officers considered them among the finest fighters in the world. During the 1930s Waziristan’s troublesome tribesmen forced the British to station more troops in that agency than in the remainder of the Indian subcontinent. In more settled agricultural areas of Pakistan’s tribal Northwest Frontier Province, Ahmed says, adults, children, and soldiers mill about comfortably in the open, while women help their men in the fields. No guns are visible. But arid Waziristan is a collection of silent, fortress-like settlements. Women are invisible, men carry guns, and desolation rules the countryside.

Even in ordinary times, from the British era through the present, the political agent’s headquarters at Wana in South Waziristan wears the air of a fortress under perpetual siege. Five British political agents died in Waziristan. Ahmed reports that during a visit to Wana by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1976, the entourage of Pakistan’s prime minister was kept nervously awake most of the night by machine gun and rifle fire from the surrounding hills. In short, the Wana encampment in South Waziristan seems like nothing so much as a century-old version of Baghdad’s Green Zone.

Politics in Waziristan is inseparable from violence. A British official once called firing on government officers the local “equivalent for presenting a petition.” Sniping, explosions on government property, and kidnappings are common enough to necessitate continuous military protection for political officials. And the forms of routinized political violence extend well beyond direct attacks on government personnel.

Because government allowances are directed to tribal elders who control violent trouble-makers in their own ranks, ambitious maliks have reason to insure that such outlaws do in fact emerge. Waziristan’s many “Robin Hoods,” who make careers out of kidnapping even non-government officials and holding them for ransom, are simultaneously encouraged and controlled by local maliks. This double game allows the clans to profit from their own capacity for causing trouble, while also establishing a violence valve, so to speak, through which they can periodically convey displeasure with the administration. “To create a problem, control it, and terminate it is an acknowledged and highly regarded yardstick of political skill,” writes Ahmed. For the most part, income in Waziristan is derived from “political activity such as raiding settled districts” and “allowances from the administration for good behavior.” Unfortunately, a people who petitions by sniper fire seems poorly suited to democratic citizenship.

Modern Americans have forgotten what it’s like to be responsible for one’s own:

The connection arises from the way Middle Eastern tribes are organized. These tribes are giant lineages, traced from male ancestors, which sub-divide into tribal segments, which in turn divide into clans, sub-clans, and so on, down to families, in which cousins may be pitted against cousins, or brother against brother. Traditionally existing outside the police powers of the state, Middle Eastern tribes keep order through a complex balance of power between these ever-fusing and -dividing ancestral groups. (Anthropologists call such tribes “segmentary lineages.”)

In such tribes, the central institution is the feud. Absent state policing, security depends on the willingness of every adult male in a given family, clan, tribe, etc., to take up arms in its defense. An attack on a lineage-mate must be avenged by the entire group. Likewise, any lineage member is liable to be killed for an offense committed by a relative, just as all lineage members would collectively share in compensation should peace be made (through, say, a tribal council or the mediation of a holy man). Tribal feuding and segmentation allow society to keep a rough (sometimes very rough) peace in the absence of a state. Conversely, societies with strong tribal components tend to have weak states.

A powerful code of honor ties the system together. Among the Pushtun tribes that populate Waziristan and much of Afghanistan, that code is called “Pushtunwali.” Avenging lineage honor is only one aspect of Pushtunwali. The code also mandates that hospitality and sanctuary be provided to any stranger requesting them. Thus a means is provided whereby, in the absence of a state, zones of security are established for travelers. Yet the system is based on an ever-shifting balance of terror which turns friends into enemies, and back again into friends, in a heartbeat. And this ethos of honor writes violent revenge and collective guilt deep into the cultural psyche. Although the British political agents who learned to live with Pushtunwali generally lionized it, Winston Churchill condemned it as a “system of ethics, which regards treachery and violence as virtues rather than vices.” In any case, the dynamics of the war on terror are easily recognizable as an extension of this tribal system of collective guilt, honor, humiliation, and revenge.

New cars that are fully loaded — with debt

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2008

The LA Times looks at new cars that are fully loaded — with debt:

Gone are the days of the three-year car loan. The length of the average automobile loan hit five years, four months in October, up more than six months from 2002, according to the Federal Reserve. And nearly 45% of loans written today are for longer than six years. Even some staid lenders owned by the carmakers, such as Toyota Financial Services and Ford Credit, are offering seven-year financing. And a few credit unions, particularly in the West, are tinkering with the eight-year note.

At the same time, the amount of money drivers owe on their cars is soaring. In October, the average amount financed hit $30,738, up $3,500 in just a year and nearly 40% in the last decade, according to the Fed. More troubling, today’s average car owner owes $4,221 more than the vehicle is worth at the time it’s sold — up from $3,529 in 2002, according to industry analyst Edmunds.

The longer loans are directly related to the higher balances. By extending the length of loans, lenders keep monthly payments down. But because these loans take longer to pay off, a much larger piece of the principal remains unpaid at the time the car is traded in.

The response of the automotive finance industry? Extend loans further and allow the indebted customer to roll what he owes into a new loan with little, if any, effect on his new monthly payment. In effect, the driver is paying a loan on two — or more — cars at once.
[...]
In the 1970s and ’80s, car loans hovered between 36 and 48 months, and drivers typically kept their cars longer than the life of the loan. A number of factors changed that.

One key was interest rates, which fell from a high of 17.8% in the early 1980s to lower than 5% today, according to the Federal Reserve. Another was affordability. According to an index tracked by Comerica Bank, cars have steadily gotten more affordable — as compared to median family income — since the late 1990s.

With cheap money at hand for more-affordable cars, the temptation to keep buying became huge. Today, according to Pregmon, financed cars are typically turned over in 24 to 36 months.

At the same time they were extending loan maturities, lenders, competing with one another, began offering more money and requiring smaller down payments.

Today, most lenders offer financing on 100% or even 125% of the sticker price, and some offer the most credit-worthy buyers loans for twice the value of the vehicle they’re purchasing. Last year, the average amount financed for new cars reached 99%, according to the Consumer Bankers Assn., up from 95% in 2005.

The article treats “upside-down” loans, where the amount owed is greater than the value of the car, as an unnatural aberration, but when you have a constant payment and an asset that doesn’t depreciate linearly, you shouldn’t be surprised to see the loan go upside-down at some point.

Peak Helium

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2008

Helium is a peculiar resource, because we were granted vast reserves — but once those reserves get used, the helium is lost and gone forever. It’s a noble gas, and it’s lighter than air. If you let it out from underground, it floats away into space.

Now helium supplies appear to be endangered, threatening science and technology:

In America, helium is running out of gas.

The element that lifts things like balloons, spirits and voice ranges is being depleted so rapidly in the world’s largest reserve, outside of Amarillo, Tex., that supplies are expected to be depleted there within the next eight years.

This deflates more than the Goodyear blimp and party favors. Its larger impact is on science and technology, according to Lee Sobotka, Ph.D., professor of chemistry and physics in Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis.

“Helium’s use in science is extremely broad but its most important use is as a coolant,” said Sobotka, a specialist in nuclear chemistry and physics who collaborates with researchers at several national laboratories.

Generally the larger users of helium (He ), such as the national laboratories, have the infrastructure to efficiently use and recycle helium, Sobotka said. The same cannot be said of many smaller scale users.

“Helium is non-renewable and irreplaceable. Its properties are unique and unlike hydrocarbon fuels (natural gas or oil), there are no biosynthetic ways to make an alternative to helium. All should make better efforts to recycle it. “

The helium we have on earth has been built up over billions of years from the decay of natural uranium and thorium. The decay of these elements proceeds at a super-snail’s pace. For example, one of the most important isotopes for helium production is uranium-238. In the entire life span of the earth only half of the uranium-238 atoms have decayed — yielding eight helium atoms per uranium atom in the process) and an inconsequential fraction decay in, say , 1, 000 years. As the uranium and thorium decay, some of the helium is trapped along with natural gas deposits in certain geological formations. Some of the produced helium seeps out of the Earth’s mantle and drifts into the atmosphere, where there is approximately five parts per million of helium. However ,this helium, as well as any helium ultimately released into the atmosphere by users, drifts up and is eventually lost to the earth.

“When we use what has been made over the approximate 4.5 billion of years the earth has been around, we will run out,” Sobotka said . “We cannot get too significant quantities of helium from the sun ¬— which can be viewed as a helium factory 93 million miles away — nor will we ever produce helium in anywhere near the quantities we need from earth-bound factories. Helium could eventually be produced directly in nuclear fusion reactors and is produced indirectly in nuclear fission reactors, but the quantities produced by such sources are dwarfed by our needs.”

Helium plays a role in nuclear magnetic resonance, mass spectroscopy, welding, fiber optics and computer microchip production, among other technological applications. NASA uses large amounts annually to pressurize space shuttle fuel tanks.

From EBR to CPR

Tuesday, January 1st, 2008

Here’s how to take an AR-15 from EBR to CPR:

So called “Assault Weapons Bans” such as the now expired 1994 Clinton ban and the one still in place in states such as California seek to ban rifles that our misguided legislators feel have no purpose in civilian hands. They identify “evil features” they can use to generically classify these “military style” weapons in sweeping terms. Of course these features, such as plastic pistol grips, barrel shrouds, and bayonet lugs have absolutely nothing to do with the firearms potential lethality in the real world and are merely cosmetic features. After all, it really doesn’t matter what color the firearm is if it fires the same ammunition right? Well, in the “spirit” of the California Assault Weapon Ban I decided to do my best to alleviate the fears of my fellow citizens and gun-banning legislators when I put together a new AR-15 for my wife. Below is the result of my painstaking work to transform an Evil Black Rifle (EBR) into a Cute Pink RIfle (CPR). Introducing the Hello Kitty AR-15!

This rifle is 100% legal in California because it is based on an “off-list” lower receiver made by Stag Arms and has no evil features at all, instead featuring a fixed stock instead of the evil collapsible stock, a muzzle brake in place of the vile flash-hider, and a MonsterMan Grip instead of the heinous and malicious plastic pistol grip.