Studying what, exactly, workers in a knowledge economy do all day

Saturday, June 27th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinGloria Mark, David Epstein’s explains (in Inside the Box), has been at the forefront of studying what, exactly, workers in a knowledge economy do all day:

Early on, this meant that she and her colleagues were shadowing office workers with stopwatches and logging all of their activity.

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The resulting paper was published in 2004, and for its title she borrowed an emblematic quote from one of the subjects: “Constant, Constant, Multi-tasking Craziness.”

Mark found that the typical office worker switched tasks every three minutes, on average. When her team studied “working spheres”—basically groups of tasks that are connected to the same project—they found that people switched about every twelve minutes and cycled through ten different working spheres per day. Whenever a sphere was interrupted, it took about twenty-five minutes on average to get back to it.

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By 2012, office workers were switching tasks every seventy-five seconds. By 2022, it had stabilized at about every forty-five seconds.

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In simplified form, the shift between tasks actually occurs in two steps: “goal shifting” (switching what you want to do) and then “rule activation” (mentally turning off the rules of one task and on those of another). This takes effort and time, and it is why studies of drivers, in both simulators and the real world, have shown that those having conversations react slowly to hazards, and the impact is the same whether they’re talking on a handheld or hands-free phone.

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Even when people are allowed to switch between tasks at their own discretion, the more they choose to switch, the longer everything takes. As Mark has written: “We find that in real-world work, the more switches in attention a person makes, the lower is their end-of-day assessed productivity.” They also perform worse on important tasks. Multitasking physicians and pilots make more prescribing and in-flight errors, respectively. Famed investor Charlie Munger had it right when he said: “I see these people doing three things at once, and I think, God what a terrible way that is to think.”

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Perhaps the most surprising of Mark’s findings has to do with “self-interruptions.” Self-interruptions are what they sound like: not a phone call or an app notification, but a thought, perhaps about something left undone or what’s happening on social media, that commandeers our attention and leads us to switch goals. Mark found that we are nearly as likely to self-interrupt as we are to be interrupted by some external cue. And here’s the frightening part: We gravitate to a customary level of interruption. If you are disrupted all day, every day by notifications, even if those external triggers magically disappear, you will unconsciously increase your self-interrupting in order to maintain the rhythm of distraction to which you have become accustomed. It is as if we have some sort of internal distraction barometer that, once used to a certain rhythm, will work to maintain it. That is why the mere presence of a smartphone on a desk, or in a pocket—even if it is turned off—has been shown to impair performance on cognitive tests particularly among people who are more phone dependent.

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Background music can have energizing or calming effects that improve performance, but it also has a distracting effect that becomes important when a task is new. Rousing background music has been shown to impair performance among new surgeons learning an unfamiliar task, and a survey of more than two thousand professional software developers found that they tend to turn music off when learning new tools.

Older adults are more likely to activate opposing ankle muscles at the same time

Tuesday, June 16th, 2026

As people age, they adopt a more cautious walking strategy, prioritizing staying upright over moving efficiently:

The study, conducted by researchers at Flinders University and the University of Canberra, found that aging leads to a more “safety-first” walking pattern. While this approach improves stability, it also reduces speed and energy efficiency, helping explain why older adults tend to fatigue more quickly and face a greater risk of falls.

By analyzing movement data from 107 healthy adults between the ages of 26 and 86, the researchers identified important age-related changes in how the ankle and surrounding muscles work during walking.

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The researchers found that older adults are more likely to activate opposing ankle muscles at the same time, a phenomenon known as co-contraction. This increases joint stiffness and helps improve balance when the foot contacts the ground.

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The study also found that older adults generate less push-off power with each step, leading to shorter strides and slower walking speeds.

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Rather than focusing only on strength, the researchers say exercise programs should also address balance, coordination, and the way muscles work together during each step.

Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been over shadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields

Sunday, June 14th, 2026

On January 17, 1961, in his farewell address, President Dwight Eisenhower famously warned against the establishment of a “military-industrial complex,” but he also warned about a scientific-technological elite:

Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades.

In this revolution, research has become central; it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.

Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been over shadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.

Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.

It is the task of statesmanship to mold, to balance, and to integrate these and other forces, new and old, within the principles of our democratic system — ever aiming toward the supreme goals of our free society.

Whatever you do, just don’t do what we’ve always done, because we’ll never compete with the Americans that way

Saturday, June 13th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinBack when he was a reporter for Sports Illustrated, David Epstein explains (in Inside the Box), a coach named Mark Wood shared a unique “preclude” story from his time working with the Canadian skeleton team:

(Skeleton is the Winter Olympics sport in which athletes slide face-first down an icy track.) At the time, every skeleton athlete started out with two hands gripping the sled; then they would start sprinting, and after a few seconds flop atop the sled to ride down. The sprint start is make-or-break for athletes in sliding sports, so Canada constructed a refrigerated facility—the Ice House—where athletes could practice starts on short tracks in the offseason. In the summer of 2001, the US team came to train at the Ice House. The Americans arrived stocked with biomechanics equipment and placed sensors all along the track so that they could analyze an athlete’s every move. “I was blown away,” Wood told me. “I’m thinking, ‘Why aren’t we doing something like this?’ But I didn’t have the resources.” Out of desperation, Wood gave his athletes a preclude directive:

Get in the Ice House and start experimenting; whatever you do, just don’t do what we’ve always done, because we’ll never compete with the Americans that way.

Skeleton athletes Pascal Richard and Paul Boehm took up the preclude challenge.

“Pascal and Paul came back to me within the hour,” Wood told me. “They said, ‘Woody, look what we’ve done.’”

With the familiar solution blocked, they had invented the one-handed start: running beside the sled and keeping the other arm free for a natural sprinting motion. They shattered their personal records, and the one-handed start was soon ubiquitous in skeleton.

His one Sports Illustrated story about skeleton doesn’t mention this anecdote, by the way.

These little monsters have plagued livestock and humans in tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas for centuries

Friday, June 12th, 2026

Oh, good, Polimath quips, screwworms are back:

Unlike most flies that lay eggs in dead and rotting organic matter, the Newworld Screwworm lays eggs in the open wounds and mucus membranes of living animals. The maggots then eat the animal (or human!) alive. Its scientific name is cochleomyia hominivorax which literally means “man-eating snail”.

These little monsters have plagued livestock and humans in tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas for centuries. This includes the southern US, the Caribbean, and most of Central and South America. The devastation of these terrible creatures amounted to billions of dollars of yearly damage on top of the fact that they are extremely gross and cause massive human and animal suffering.

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In the 1930’s, Raymond Bushland and Edward Knipling were studying the screwworm in Texas where it was devastating livestock herds. These two scientists proposed and developing the “sterile insect technique” (SIT), which involves breeding the insects, sterilizing them with radiation, and releasing them into the wild. Because the female screwworm fly mates only once, if she mates with a sterile male fly any eggs she lays will not produce maggots.

This has the immediate benefit of stopping the maggots from killing livestock but also has the long term benefit of eradicating these little assholes. Of course this would mean intentionally breeding sterile flies on an industrial scale and releasing millions of them into the wild. So that is what they decided to do.

In 1954, this strategy was tested on a small island of Curaçao. The screwworm was eliminated from the island in the space of seven weeks.

Over the next 30-40 years, the there was a major push for screwworm eradication in North America. It was driven out of the US in the 60’s. With enormous international cooperation, they were pushed out of Mexico and Belize in the 80’s and eradication was pushed down to Panama by the 1990’s.

By a happy accident of geography, Panama was an excellent choke-point for the screwworm eradication. We could effectively maintain a screwworm border in Panama with a minimal effort because the geographic area to sterilize was physically small and politically stable. This also meant that screwworm control could be maintained through limited screwworm production facilities based in Panama and managed by COPEG, a joint commission between Panama and the US. COPEG is an institution specifically founded to maintain control over the screwworm barrier in Panama.

[…]

But then something went wrong.

Apparently in 2022, the screwworm barrier was breached. I say “apparently” because there seems to be wide agreement that 2022 is when this happened but no one can point to an event or any form of data about when this happened. The year 2022 seems to be a backward extrapolation from the fact that in 2023 there were 6,500 screwworm cases in Panama. Since then, cases have spread up through Central America and into Mexico.

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It seems very likely that unchecked northward migration of livestock herds in 2022-2023 was a big factor in this ongoing disaster. Expert entomologists have looked at the pattern with exasperation and concluded that this is really the only plausible explanation since the flies themselves simply do not spread that quickly on their own. They were almost certainly transported via unchecked northward migration of people and animals.

My frustration with this is less about how it started and more about how it has gone on for so long unchecked. I have a long-standing grudge against people who think that the good things we enjoy in a rich first-world civilization just landed here by accident and are not the result of relentless efforts from determined people who take very seriously the responsibility of holding back the chaos of nature red in tooth and claw.

Some group of people were in charge of holding the line on the screwworm barrier. They failed.

[…]

The screwworm barrier in Panama cost $15 million a year. This is zero dollars to the US government. This program was basically free and it protected an entire continent from billions of dollars of yearly damage.

Constraints force people off the path of least resistance

Sunday, June 7th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinThe tendency for constraints to spur creativity, David Epstein explains (in Inside the Box), appears in study after study:

In a study reminiscent of Geisel’s Cat in the Hat strategy, participants made more creative rhyming messages when they were required to incorporate a particular word compared to when they had no restrictions.

In a famous study of toy creation, designers were more creative (and worked harder) when they were given five randomly selected components to work with and forced to incorporate all of them, compared to when they were offered a larger set of pieces and allowed to use them however they wanted. “Constraints,” the researchers wrote, “were forcing people off the path of least resistance.”

A study of mechanical inventions was nearly identical, with the most creative results occurring when inventors were given a category (like tools, weapons, or transportation) and made to work with assigned pieces from a larger set.

Inventor Simone Giertz, famous for her wacky robots and ingenious products—like a hinged hanger that folds for small closets—crafted a simple tool to spark ideas: a set of three dice. One die lists objects, another materials, and another properties. Roll the dice and you might have to make a piece of furniture from cardboard that makes music, or a metal art object using no power tools. “If I have just an open field of possibilities, I won’t come up with any new ideas,” Giertz told me. “I made the dice to create as specific a brief as possible. And you can stray from it, but it gives me enough constraints to get started. It’s like if you can cook any meal, you’re probably going to cook something you already know, but if you can only cook with these three ingredients, you’re going to have to come up with something new.”

Composition takes place in a cul-de-sac of the customary

Friday, June 5th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinYears ago, Tim Harford’s Cautionary Tales discussed Keith Jarrett’s Köln Concert, David Bowie’s “Heroes”, and Brian Eno’s Music for Airports, in an episode about how staying in your comfort zone isn’t always the best option and that disruption can feed creativity. David Epstein makes those same points in Inside the Box and covers that same concert:

Eighteen-year-old Vera Brandes had not intended to make music history on the night of January 24, 1975. She planned only to put on a sold-out concert at the opera house in Cologne, Germany.

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At seventeen, when she learned that a concert in Cologne featuring a well-known band from America was about to fall through, she stepped in to save it, finalizing contracts, securing a venue, and mustering promotion at the last minute. It played to a sold-out crowd of eight hundred, and thus she became a concert promoter.

Next, Brandes started her own concert series. She called it New Jazz in Cologne.

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She reserved the Cologne Opera House for a Friday night, which meant the concert would be late—eleven p.m.—because it would have to begin after that night’s opera.

To allow anyone interested to attend, she kept the tickets cheap; some went for four deutsche marks, or about $ 1.50. When the day of the show rolled around, all 1,432 seats had been sold.

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Jarrett had performed in Lausanne, Switzerland, the night before, and had to drive the four hundred miles with his producer, Manfred Eicher, overnight to get to Cologne. Neither had slept, and Jarrett was wearing a brace due to persistent back pain.

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They also wanted to check out the piano, which Jarrett had specifically requested: a nine-and-a-half-foot-long Bösendorfer 290 Imperial concert grand piano.

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The piano was sitting on the orchestra lift, a platform in the orchestra pit that can be raised up to the level of the stage. Brandes found someone who could raise the platform, and Jarrett tested a few keys. Then Eicher tested a few keys. Brandes could hear immediately that something was wrong. Eicher walked over and told her that if she couldn’t find another piano, the concert was off.

It wasn’t just that the piano was wildly out of tune. It was the wrong piano. In addition to being two and a half feet shorter than the Bösendorfer Imperial, it actually had fewer keys in the bass range.

There were two Bösendorfer pianos in the arts complex that included the opera house, and a transport company had moved the wrong one.

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The tuner was able to get the middle register in order and the bass register playable, but the upper register was still a problem. The first tinkling notes mimicked the pre-concert bell that ushered the audience to their seats—an unusual start that elicited a giggle from the crowd. Over the next hour of improvisation, Jarrett stuck to the middle of the piano for extended periods. Instead of relying on the full range of notes, he wielded shifts in the loudness and softness of the music to craft an emotional sonic journey, moving between driving rhythms and fragile whispers. He focused on ostinatos, or repetitive patterns of notes, out of which recurring themes blossomed. Combined with steady rhythmic changes, it gave the playing a gorgeous, ethereal quality. In contrast to the sprawling “free jazz” improvisation that was common in Europe at the time, Jarrett spent long stretches playing a few chords with his left hand (one ten-minute span alternates between two adjacent chords, one minor and one major) while his right hand played the part of soloist, improvising groove passages, often in a narrow pitch range but with widely varying rhythms and recurring elements. The smaller piano was not meant to project sound that could reach the balconies, so Jarrett had to press the keys (especially in the bass register) aggressively. He occasionally supplemented that with a novel percussive element: stamping his foot against the pedal without pressing it down. Here and there, he added a well-timed hoot of apparent delight.

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Even after Jarrett had agreed to play, he and Eicher almost dismissed the recording team. But since the sound engineers were already there, they let them proceed, assuming nothing would come of it. Instead, the Cologne performance was released later that year, using the German name of the city in the album title: The Köln Concert. Jarrett’s improvisations that night were too long for radio. But when people heard the album, they loved it. The repetitive elements and anchored improvisations are thrilling but easy to follow, even for a complete novice. It immediately began to spread by word of mouth or by people hearing it played in record stores and asking if they could buy it. It started selling… and selling, and selling, until it had sold millions of copies in all. That recording, of the undersized, partly tuned, sticky-pedaled piano, eventually became the bestselling solo piano album of all time.

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“What happened with this piano was that I was forced to play in what was—at the time—a new way,” he said. “Somehow I felt I had to bring out whatever qualities this instrument had. And that was it.” Decades later, referring to a different performance (his best, he felt), he told Keyboard Magazine: “When I find a piano that has this ‘imperfect’ character, it’s actually much more to deal with—and I mean that in a good sense—than a ‘perfect’ piano.”

Jarrett is hinting at what psychologist Catrinel Tromp has termed the Green Eggs and Ham model of creativity—the paradoxical idea that “working with constraints can yield more creative outputs.” The model gets its name from the origin of the seminal children’s book by Theodor Geisel (aka Dr. Seuss), which began when Bennett Cerf at Random House bet Geisel fifty dollars that he couldn’t write a children’s book using just fifty words.

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In the mid-1950s, the typical reading primer for children was, as the journalist and novelist John Hersey wrote after serving on a school-study council: an “antiseptic little sugar-book showing how Tom and Betty have fun at home and school… uniform, bland, idealized and terribly literal.” With that in mind, the head of Houghton Mifflin’s education division invited Geisel to dinner. He gave Geisel a list of vocabulary words for kids and asked him to write a book for six-and seven-year-olds using no more than 225 words from the list.

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The list exasperated Geisel. “There are no adjectives!” he complained to his wife. In fine Seussian form, he compared it to “trying to make a strudel without any strudels.” So he looked over the list again, and decided that the first two rhyming words he found would form the title of the book, and he’d proceed from there. Thus, The Cat in the Hat was born, transforming contemporary children’s literature. Like Jarrett, Geisel was given limited sounds to work with, so he had to focus more intently on exploring rhythm, quickening the words as the plot quickened. He found it extremely difficult, but also extremely generative.

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As a prominent creativity study put it, given complete freedom, our very strong urge is to follow the “path of least resistance.”

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A related phenomenon is known as the Einstellung effect, a psychology term for the instinct of problem solvers to employ only familiar methods even if better ones are available. “Without constraints,” as one creativity researcher eloquently put it, “composition takes place in a cul-de-sac of the customary.”

Messy by Tim HarfordI should probably read Tim Harford’s Messy, on this subject. He shares some of his sources:

Paul Trynka’s biography of David Bowie is Starman. Sasha Frere-Jones has a fine profile of Brian Eno in the New Yorker, but my main source is my own discussions with Brian.

Brian Eno and Peter Schmidt printed their collection of oblique strategies — aphorisms for creativity — on cards in 1975.

The brain is not designed for thinking

Wednesday, June 3rd, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinAs a pair of psychologists first put it in the 1980s, David Epstein explains (in Inside the Box), humans are “cognitive misers”:

With our limited cognitive resources, it is efficient to reach for solutions that are easy and intuitive. Given complete freedom, we tend to default to simple solutions, not because they are good, but because they are familiar.

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Because we are cognitive misers, breakthrough creativity happens when the easy and intuitive path is blocked—by choice or by force.

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As the cognitive scientist Daniel Willingham has written: “Contrary to popular belief, the brain is not designed for thinking. It’s designed to save you from having to think.” Because the brain is naturally inclined to avoid effortful thinking and to rely instead on familiar patterns, complete freedom tends to lead to unoriginal ideas, simply repeating what is known. Constraints push the brain beyond its default tendencies, forcing it to engage in deeper problem-solving. Total freedom, then, is the enemy of creativity, and constraint its companion.

Daniel Willingham is the author of Why Don’t Students Like School? and Outsmart Your Brain and the “Ask the Cognitive Scientist” column in American Educator magazine.

More headline-worthy results followed

Thursday, May 28th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinBetween 1970 and 1999, David Epstein explains (in Inside the Box), the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) funded thirty large clinical trials that tested drugs or dietary supplements for the treatment or prevention of cardiovascular disease:

While more than half of the studies published before 2000 found a benefit, only two out of twenty-five published early in the twenty-first century did. It was as if some millennium bug had struck, and medicine stopped working.

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Beginning in 2000, “authors face greater constraints in reporting the results of their studies.” They had to restrict what has come to be known as “researcher degrees of freedom,” and that restriction caused a shift from mostly positive drug-trial results to mostly negative results.

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Wansink was a scientific star, making headlines and influencing policy—until a well-intended blog post he wrote in the fall of 2016 abruptly ended his academic career. It was titled: “The Grad Student Who Never Said ‘No.’ ”

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At the start of the post, Wansink mentioned a study in which diners at an all-you-can-eat buffet were charged different prices. He was disappointed that the study had “failed”—that is, had not supported whatever hypothesis he started with. But along came the industrious graduate student. Wansink handed her the data and told her to start looking for positive results. “There’s got to be something here we can salvage,” he told her.

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As Wansink wrote in his blog post: “Eventually we started discovering solutions that held up.”

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Because the grad student was doing such a good job at finding positive results, Wansink gave her data from other samples to work with. More headline-worthy results followed.

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Wansink’s blog post was openly explaining how he had encouraged the graduate student to do what is known as “HARKing”: Hypothesizing After the Results are Known.

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Since the year after his blog post, eighteen of Wansink’s studies have been retracted from scientific journals. In 2018, he resigned from Cornell.

Wansink’s work received coverage in the New York Times (and one of your favorite blogs).

He called it the Pocket Crystal

Sunday, May 10th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinAs I mentioned recently, I quite enjoyed David Epstein’s The Sports Gene and Range, so I went ahead and got Inside the Box the day it came out.

He opens with the famous story of Dmitri Mendeleev seeing the periodic table in a dream and contrasts that myth with the reality that Mendeleev had a deadline approaching for the second volume of his textbook, and he needed a way to discuss dozens of elements more sensibly and efficiently.

His primary example though — or counter-example, since it demonstrates what a lack of constraints does — is General Magic, founded by two Apple legends and the guy who coined the term Information Economy, Marc Porat:

One day, Porat took a Sharp Wizard — a new electronic organizer with a calendar and phone book — and duct-taped it to a Motorola analog cell phone. He had his concept.

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He called it the Pocket Crystal.

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The Pocket Crystal schematic depicted a thin glass rectangle with no protruding buttons—just a touch screen. It would be a computer that combined a phone and fax machine; you would use it to send text messages, watch movies, play video games, buy plane tickets, and download new apps. It would fit in your pocket, and it would be beautiful. Following the sketch, Porat wrote in his red book: “It must offer the kind of personal satisfaction that a fine piece of jewelry brings. It will have a perceived value even when it’s not being used. It should offer the comfort of a touchstone, the tactile satisfaction of a seashell, the enchantment of a crystal.”

In 1989, only 15 percent of American households even had a computer, which didn’t fit in anyone’s pocket; zero percent were browsing the web, because it didn’t exist. And yet, there was Marc Porat, essentially sketching the iPhone.

Apple took a board seat, Sculley introduced them to Sony, and soon “General Magic’s partners controlled so much of the world’s communications industry that Alliance meetings had to begin with an antitrust lawyer listing all the topics they were prohibited from discussing.”

Porat raised so much money so quickly to create “heaven for engineers.”

“They were free to imagine and play and invent and write,” he said. “They were inventing one thing after another, after another, after another and for an engineer, what more can you ask for?”

The answer, it turned out: a little less freedom.

The General Magic documentary explains:

A textbook case of discovery

Friday, May 8th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinI quite enjoyed David Epstein’s The Sports Gene and Range, so I went ahead and got Inside the Box the day it came out. It’s a light, Gladwellian collection of pop-sci bits exploring How Constraints Make Us Better.

“It is a myth — widely believed but not less mythical for that — that people are most creative when they are most free.”
— Herbert Simon

He opens with the famous story of Dmitri Mendeleev seeing the periodic table in a dream. There’s very little evidence of that, but there is plenty of evidence that he was struggling to fit the remaining dozens of elements into the second volume of his new chemistry textbook, and he needed a way to group them.

“He was boxed in by a book contract,” Epstein notes, “and that made all the difference.”

Belief effects do have a ceiling

Sunday, May 3rd, 2026

Do Hard Things by Steve MagnessWith Sabastian Sawe breaking the two-hour marathon, Steve Magness notes, we’ve got a new self-help story that will dominate public speaking for decades to come, like Bannister’s breaking the four-minute mile:

After Roger Bannister broke the 4-minute mile barrier, John Landy got under the mark just 46 days later. The next year 3 more men got under. And within 2.5 years, there were 10 runner who were now sub-4 milers.

But perhaps most interesting is that of the first five men to break 4 minutes for the mile, three were British. And they all shared a coach: Franz Stampfl. A year after Bannister broke the barrier, Stampfl’s athletes Chris Chattaway and Brian Hewson would become the 4th and 5th men to go sub-4. Chattaway was actually one of the original pacers in Bannister’s attempt. The other pace and training partner, Chris Brasher, went on to win Gold at the 1956 Olympics in the steeplechase.

For a belief effect to take hold, it has to feel real.

When we see someone we train with (or have competed against) who isn’t too dissimilar from us do something that once seemed crazy, we start to think, “If he or she can, why not me?” Famed psychologist Albert Bandura spent his career studying a type of inner confidence he called self-efficacy. The most powerful contributor was what he called mastery experiences, where you go into the arena and do the thing. You gain experience through the work, and that experience gives you evidence that you have a shot.

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Most people get this backwards. They wait until they feel sure before they act. But confidence isn’t something you summon. It’s something you accumulate. The more reps you put in, the more faith you gain in your respective craft, and in yourself. It is not blind or delusional faith. It is faith based on a concrete body of evidence—and it’s the only kind that holds up when it matters.

Another major contributor to self-efficacy is vicarious experience. It occurs when you watch someone like you attain your goal successfully. Bandura emphasized that the impact depends heavily on perceived similarity. It’s the Bannister effect to a T. His training partners saw what he did every day and thought, “We’re keeping up with him… maybe we can do it too.”

Bannister’s coach Franz Stampfl put it this way, “Effort is really a mental image. The basis of athletic coaching must be to make the state of mind so strong that a world record performance is reduced to the level of instinct.” While the trio of marathoners (Sawe, Kejelcha, and Kiplimo) who smashed records on Sunday weren’t training partners, they had raced each other numerous times. In fact, Kejelcha had a 2-1 lead over Sawe in the half-marathon. And Kiplimo had finished 2nd to Sawe at last year’s London marathon. So if someone you’ve competed with closely is going for it, you say “I’ve run with them before, so why not.” And this explains how you get three guys breaking a world-record in one race.

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Research? shows that role models can either inspire or discourage us. The difference comes from whether you see a role model or worthy rival’s success as achievable. Meaning, the more a role model or worthy rival seems like you (or perhaps comes from a background that allows you to say “this could be me”), the more likely that role model or worthy rival inspires. If, however, the role model or worthy rival is too distant, we create all sorts of reasons for why that couldn’t be us, and we psych ourselves out.

[…]

Belief effects do have a ceiling. We can’t just wish or manifest our way to crazy performance, despite what some in the self-help world may say. In a fascinating study on cyclists who were deceived while doing a time trial, the researchers put a fake avatar and racing splits as being 2% faster than their personal best. They beat their own personal bests. But when they bumped that up to 5%, their performance crashed. It was too far of a stretch. The brain unlocks reserves up to a believable margin and shuts down past it.

There’s one other separate mechanism that plays a role here that goes deeper than belief. Henk Aarts and Peter Gollwitzer’s research on goal contagion found that watching someone pursue a goal makes you automatically adopt it yourself, often without realizing it. Goal contagion is the unconscious cousin to belief effects. And just like its close relative, it also runs on proximity. The closer the model of the goal, the stronger the pull. If you watch a random stranger run hard, you might catch a tiny bit of contagion. But if you watch your training partner go to the well in a workout, the contagion is massive. The brain adopts the goals of people it considers “us,” which is the exact biological mechanism behind why training groups elevate individual performance.

[…]

Find the people doing what you want to do. Get close enough to feel it. The “impossible” becomes more possible when it’s standing next to you. And then give yourself the personal evidence—from practice, from prior experiences—that you can make the jump if things come together.

You don’t need to feel ready. What you need is a body of evidence: your own hard work and people around you who show you’ve got a chance.

China will be the greatest scientific power the world has ever seen — or bust

Wednesday, April 29th, 2026

T. Greer argues that the Chinese system has a new telos:

In 2026, the aim of China’s communist enterprise is to lead humanity through what they call “the next round of techno scientific revolution and industrial transformation.” The Chinese leadership believes humanity stands on the cusp of the next industrial revolution. China can only be restored to its ancestral greatness if it is the pioneer of this revolution. All machinery of party and state bend towards this end. All 100 million members of the Communist Party of China, all 50 million government employees of the PRC, all two million soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army, and ultimately all of the 1.4 billion people that call China home must be mobilized to accomplish this aim. That is the ambition. China will be the greatest scientific power the world has ever seen — or bust.

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Now scientific achievement is difficult to measure. One common metric is to count the so-called “high impact papers” – journal articles highly cited by other leading lights in a given scientific field. Count up these papers over the course of a year, see who wrote them, see where those authors work, and — voila! — you have a ranked list of which institutions are putting out the most high-impact science in a given year. Had you done this counting exercise in the year 2005, you would have discovered that six of the world’s ten most productive universities were in the United States. Today only one of those universities is in the United States. That university is Harvard, coming in at spot number three on the list. At spot number one? Zhejiang University.

How many of you have heard of Zhejiang University? Can I get a show of hands?

And of course, Zhejiang University is just one of the Chinese institutions on this top ten list. China claims not just the number-one spot, but also the number-two spot. And not just the number-one and number-two spots, but also the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eight, ninth spots go to the Chinese.

The scientific publisher Nature makes a similar catalog on a slightly more granular level, looking at specific fields of science. According to Nature’s most recent rankings, 18 of the top 25 most productive research institutes in the physical sciences, 19 of the top 20 in geosciences, and a full 25 out of 25 in chemistry are Chinese. Only in the biosciences do American scientists still have a lead — but even on that list three of the top ten are Chinese.

The kicker is, none of that was true even just a decade ago.

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China graduates five times the number of medical and biomedical students than we do every year, seven times the number of engineers, and two-and-a-half times the number of undergraduates with research experience in artificial intelligence. Last year China graduated almost double the number of STEM PhD students than we did—and that number is actually worse than it sounds because — depending on the exact year you do the counting — between one sixth and one fifth of our STEM graduates are themselves Chinese.

Scientists remove “zombie” cells and reverse liver damage in mice

Sunday, April 26th, 2026

UCLA scientists have uncovered a harmful group of immune cells that quietly builds up in aging tissues and in the livers of people with fatty liver disease:

When these cells were removed in mice, inflammation dropped sharply and liver damage was reversed, even though the animals continued eating an unhealthy diet.

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They found that the combination of two proteins, p21 and TREM2, reliably marks macrophages that are truly senescent and no longer functioning properly, while still driving inflammation in nearby tissue.

Using this marker, the researchers observed a dramatic shift with age. In young mice, only about 5% of liver macrophages were senescent. In older mice, that number rose to between 60 and 80%, closely matching the increase in chronic liver inflammation seen with aging.

Aging is not the only factor behind this buildup. The researchers discovered that excess cholesterol can also push macrophages into a senescent state. When healthy macrophages were exposed to high levels of LDL cholesterol in the lab, they stopped dividing, began releasing inflammatory proteins and displayed the same p21-TREM2 signature.

“Physiologically, macrophages can handle cholesterol metabolism,” said Ivan Salladay-Perez, first author of the new study and a graduate student in the Covarrubias lab. “But in a chronic state, it’s pathological. And when you look at fatty liver disease, which is driven by overnutrition and too much cholesterol in the blood, that excess cholesterol appears to be a major driver of the senescent macrophage population.”

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To test whether removing these cells could improve health, the team treated mice with ABT-263, a drug designed to selectively eliminate senescent cells. The effects were dramatic. In mice fed a high-fat, high-cholesterol diet, liver size dropped from about 7% of body weight to a healthier 4-5% percent. Body weight also fell by about 25%, decreasing from roughly 40 grams to around 30 grams.

The treated livers appeared smaller and healthier, with a normal red color, compared to the enlarged, yellowish livers seen in untreated animals.

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Although ABT-263 worked in mice, it is too toxic for widespread use in humans.

The Sun is much hotter than a compost heap

Thursday, April 23rd, 2026

Atomic Adventures by James MahaffeyNuclear fusion is generally presented as the sci-fi energy source of the future, providing unlimited, clean energy, but, while listening to the audiobook version Atomic Adventures by James Mahaffey, I was reminded that the astronomical output of the sun comes from its astronomical mass:

At the center of the Sun, fusion power is estimated by models to be about 276.5 watts/m3. Despite its intense temperature, the peak power generating density of the core overall is similar to an active compost heap, and is lower than the power density produced by the metabolism of an adult human. The Sun is much hotter than a compost heap due to the Sun’s enormous volume and limited thermal conductivity.