Science!

Thursday, September 4th, 2008

Proclaim your support for Science! with these t-shirts by Jeremy Kalgreen:

(Hat tip to Mike.)

Battleground 2000

Thursday, September 4th, 2008

In his Danger Room column for Wired, Noah Shachtman shares Usborne Publishing’s 1979 illustrated trip to the far-off world of the year 2000 — and beyond!, complete with orbital factories, floating pyramid cities, and laser-powered replicators. His professional interests tend towards the military though:

Some of the predictions aren’t too far off; take off the laser cannon and the mini-wings in front, and the fighter plane, designed for “dogfighting in the 1990′s,” is reminiscent of today’s F-22. It’s even got “robot missiles” that “home in on the target by themselves.”

Other prognostications didn’t pan out, alas. “Armed hovercars” haven’t replaced Humvees. 100-kph hydrofoil patrol boats” didn’t make it to “most, if not all, world navies” by “the 1990′s.” And troops aren’t climbing into “giant rocket transport[s]” to “quell an uprising in a state halfway around the world.” They’re still stuck with old-fashioned jets to do the job. Sigh.

Ex-boxing champ shot dead in smoking dispute

Thursday, September 4th, 2008

Nigerian-born former British heavyweight boxing champion James Oyebola was shot in the neck in a nightclub after asking a group of men to stop smoking.

Being 6’9″ and skilled is no match for being armed and ruthless.

Nifty New Risk Calculations of What’s Likely to Kill You

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

Ronald Bailey of Reason Magazine magazine notes that the Journal of the National Cancer Institute has produced Nifty New Risk Calculations of What’s Likely to Kill You:

At all ages, the 10-year risk of death from all causes combined is higher for men than women. The effect of smoking on the chance of dying is similar to the effect of adding 5 to 10 years of age. For men who never smoked, heart disease death represents the single largest cause of death from age 50 on. For men who currently smoke, the chance of dying from lung cancer is of the same order of magnitude as the chance of dying from heart disease from age 60 on, and after age 50, it is 10 times greater than the chance of dying from prostate or colon cancer. For women who never smoked, the 10-year risks of death from breast cancer and heart disease are similar until age 60; from this age on, heart disease represents the single largest cause of death. For women who currently smoke, the chance of dying from heart disease or lung cancer exceeds the chance of dying from breast cancer from age 40 on.

20 Tech Habits to Improve Your Life

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

Gina Trapani of PC World suggests 20 Tech Habits to Improve Your Life:

  1. Telecommute by Remotely Controlling Your Office Computer
  2. Schedule Automatic Hard-Drive Backups, Locally and Remotely
  3. Work Faster and More Efficiently Without a Mouse
  4. Lose Weight, Get Fit, Save Money, and Increase Your Mileage Online
  5. Clear Out Your Inbox Every Day
  6. Get Your Cables Under Control
  7. Stay on Task With the Right To-Do List
  8. Replace Your Laptop With a Thumb Drive or iPod
  9. Use Your Camera Phone as Your Digital Photographic Memory
  10. Create Your Own Price-Protection System
  11. Consolidate Multiple E-Mail Addresses With Gmail
  12. Never Forget a Birthday, Teeth Cleaning, or Oil Change Again
  13. Never Forget a Password Again
  14. Encrypt Your Private Files
  15. Stream Content From Your PC to Your Tivo, PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, or Wii
  16. Get Your TV and Music Fix Online
  17. Reach Favorite Sites and Searches Faster With Firefox Keywords
  18. Tweak, Monitor, and Extend Your Wi-Fi Network With a Firmware Upgrade (or Aluminum Foil)
  19. Master Search Techniques to Pinpoint Files or Web Sites
  20. Print Smart to Reduce Costs

Teach the Controversy

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

Teach the Controversy with intelligently designed t-shirts by Jeremy Kalgreen:



(Hat tip to Mike.)

We are running out of dirt

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

Charles Mann examines Our Good Earth and the problems we’re creating for the soil beneath our feet, starting with compaction:

Midwestern topsoil, some of the finest cropland in the world, is made up of loose, heterogeneous clumps with plenty of air pockets between them. Big, heavy machines like the harvesters mash wet soil into an undifferentiated, nigh impenetrable slab — a process called compaction. Roots can’t penetrate compacted ground; water can’t drain into the earth and instead runs off, causing erosion. And because compaction can occur deep in the ground, it can take decades to reverse. Farm-equipment companies, aware of the problem, put huge tires on their machines to spread out the impact. And farmers are using satellite navigation to confine vehicles to specific paths, leaving the rest of the soil untouched. Nonetheless, this kind of compaction remains a serious issue — at least in nations where farmers can afford $400,000 harvesters.

The bigger problems, of course, are in nations where farmers can’t afford $400,000 harvesters:

In the developing world, far more arable land is being lost to human-induced erosion and desertification, directly affecting the lives of 250 million people. In the first — and still the most comprehensive — study of global soil misuse, scientists at the International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC) in the Netherlands estimated in 1991 that humankind has degraded more than 7.5 million square miles of land. Our species, in other words, is rapidly trashing an area the size of the United States and Canada combined.
[...]
“Taking the long view, we are running out of dirt,” says David R. Montgomery, a geologist at the University of Washington in Seattle.

Is U.C.L.A. Illegally Using Race-Based Affirmative Action in Admissions?

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

Is U.C.L.A. Illegally Using Race-Based Affirmative Action in Admissions? Steven D. Levitt’s friend and co-author, Tim Groseclose, a professor of political science at U.C.L.A., thinks so:

Groseclose was a member of U.C.L.A.’s Committee on Undergraduate Admissions and Relations With Schools until yesterday, when he resigned from the committee in a very public way and released an 89-page report documenting what he calls “malfeasance” and an “accompanying cover-up.”

The gist of Groseclose’s allegations is that Proposition 209 prohibits public institutions in California from considering race, sex, or ethnicity, but that U.C.L.A. nonetheless uses such information in admissions decisions.
[...]
Indeed, it seems that the adoption of the “holistic” approach to judging applications was designed precisely to accomplish that goal, as David Leonhardt has written about previously.

Statistics suggest the holistic approach did lead to a big jump in enrollment by African-Americans at U.C.L.A., which was accompanied by a sharp decline in the S.A.T. scores of the African-American students admitted.

Google Chrome

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

In case you haven’t heard, Google has announced its own browser, Google Chrome, via online comic.



If that’s insufficiently geeky for your taste, please realize that the comic is by Scott McCloud, of Understanding Comics fame.

Where can a laymen get an introduction to the current state-of-the-art of "hard AI"?

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

Where can a laymen get an introduction to the current state-of-the-art of “hard AI”?, a redditor asked, and one martincmartin replied:

I worked on (baby steps toward) hard AI until about 2003, first at CMU, then MIT. I thought a lot about where the field is going, and why. Here’s a brief history of AI:

1940s:

  • computer invented; clearly does things that, in people, are considered intelligent (e.g. arithmetic)
  • Atomic bomb changes face of science research in America. It’s hard to overstate the impact of going from conventional bombs (killing groups of people) to atomic bombs (wiping out entire cities). Russians quickly catch up. People know we’re just scratching the surface of sub-atomic physics, and wonder what else lies hidden in the atom. Physics funding increases 10x.

1950s:

  • Computers can solve calculus problems, which looks to many people like they have the intelligence of an undergraduate.
  • Dartmouth conference and AI starts to gel as a discipline.
  • Sputnik shows that Russians can push a button and two hours later, an atomic bomb explodes in the U.S., with no way to stop it. ARPA founded to give scientists lots of money to research basic science. Funding in physics goes up another 10x.

1960s:

  • Space race, where Russians are continually ahead of the Americans: first person in space, first person in orbit, first device on the moon, etc.
  • Computers do more things that look intelligent: hold simple conversations, re-discover hundreds of years of math in a few hours. People worry that Russians will be able to create intelligence thousands or millions of times greater than a human’s, and outsmart us. This peaks around 1970, as captured in the movie “The Forbin Project.”
  • The media focuses on the most outlandish predictions.
  • The movie 2001 is seen as more-or-less plausible depiction of what could happen by the year 2001. Perhaps a little optimistic, but not wildly so.

1970s:

  • Russians fall behind in space & physics. Hyped AI doesn’t pan out. Low hanging fruit in symbol systems AI are taken, and it’s into a hard slog. Voters grumble about all the money being spent on research. ARPA renamed DARPA and told to focus on military specific technology.

1980s:

  • The people funding AI no longer want to hear about hard AI, they want people to solve practical, near-term problems. There’s a growing consensus that symbol systems, hard AI stuff doesn’t work and isn’t going to work any time soon.
  • An AI professor at MIT told me that, in the 1980s, CS professors were embarrassed to say they were working in AI, and hasted to add “but not that kind of AI!”
  • There’s lots of talk about what the next paradigm will be. Stuff that looks like other engineering disciplines wins. (Hidden Markov Models come from communications theory, as do Khalman filters, etc.)

1990s:

  • “Machine learning” (aka applied statistics) takes over as the only game in town (in the U.S.). Essentially, AI is in its behaviorist stage, where it’s assumed that anyone who talks about strong AI is a flake.

2000s:

  • More “machine learning = AI”. Perhaps the seeds of the next paradigm are being laid, but we’ll only know in retrospect.

Astrospies

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

I enjoyed NOVA‘s Astrospies a few months ago. Noah Shachtman’s Danger Room post reminded me of it and alerted me that the full show is online. Here’s a taste:

How To Pacify Iraq, 1918 Style

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008



David Hambling cites The Times History Of The War, published in the 1920s, which explains How To Pacify Iraq, 1918 Style:

“It was one of Sir Percy Cox’s first triumphs that he brought about a friendly understanding between the Shi’ites and Sunnites at Baghdad… The jurisdiction of the religious heads of the various communities was recognised and strengthened. The Baghdadi of all sects responded by giving willing help to the British authorities.”

The capital gained a new police force and a fire brigade, numerous schools, electric street lighting and a reliable water supply. Mosques were repaired, roads built, and “sanitary squads have penetrated the most hidden purlieus pf the city.”

Under the new system of law, justice was executed “but people found that account was taken of their customs, and even the prejudices, and that no attempt was made to thrust upon them a British and alien system.”

Meanwhile, thousands of workers were taken on at Basra to develop the port, and the railway was extended from Basra to Baghdad. (The British Empire loved railways, which were essential for the rapid movement as troops — as well as for opening up new markets and new sources of supply.)

One problem was the perpetual feuding between tribes, which had apparently been encouraged by the Turks. All boundary disputes were settled on the basis of tribal custom and the authority of the local sheikhs. This was made possible by “the personal friendship and confidence which exists between them [the British political officers] and many of the sheikhs with whom they have had to deal. “ Interestingly, it notes that “in two cases at least it was noted that the head of the tribe was a woman.”

All in all, it seems a lot more politically correct than one might have expected ninety years ago.

Of course, one reason this all worked was that the British didn’t mess around:

One serious incident did occur at the holy city of Najaf, which was inhabited largely by “well-disposed holy people” but also a hard core of “irreconcilables” who would not accept the British. Some of the latter fired on British troops “causing a few casualties.” Captain W. M. Marshall, the political officer decided against violent punitive action, “not wishing to injure a town which is full of sacred memories for Mahommedans” and instead ordered the arrest of the two Sheikhs known to be responsible. They fled before they could be captured, and were presumably replaced by rulers who were more cautious about openly attacking the British.

When a British officer was later killed at Najaf, a blockade was ordered. The town was surrounded by military posts connected with barbed wire until those implicated in the murder were given up.

The marshes of lower Mesopotamia were seen as a particular challenge, being full of outlaws and feuding tribes. But within twelve months they were pacified with “security of tenure, just taxation, water for their lands, safe transport and an assured market for their produce.”

A unit was formed from the former outlaws to police the area, providing “an outlet for restless spirits and opportunity of honorable employment to petty chiefs and impoverished members of ruling families.”

Gridiron Gear Goes to War

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

Gridiron Gear Goes to War to tackle head trauma:

Helmet manufacturer Riddell knows a bit about football and military helmets. Founder John Riddell helped invent the World War II suspension helmet and his company currently has an 84 percent market share in the NFL and approximately 40 percent in college. Asked by military personnel in February to improve the Army’s Advanced Combat Helmet (ACH), Riddell provided a prototype inner liner in just six months. Riddell was instructed to maintain the outer ballistic shell of the ACH and the offset distance from the head to the inside of the shell (3/4 inch). Adapting the dual density foam at the heart of its Revolution football helmet, Riddell claims the new padding reduces impact magnitudes by 50 percent.
[...]
Over the past 30 years few truly novel innovations have gained any real traction in the helmet industry. But, a former Harvard quarterback, intimately familiar with concussive impacts, and equipped with an MD and an MBA from Columbia hopes to change that. Vincent Ferrara, CEO of Xenith LLC (Lowell, MA), believes the technology in his X1 helmet can help better protect those on the gridiron and the battlefield. The X1 relies on eighteen thermoplastic shock absorbers filled with nothing but air that adapt depending how hard someone gets hit. A single hole allows the air to expel and the absorber to compress fully on all impacts. Ferrara uses a bicycle pump to explain how the X1 works. Push down lightly and the air flows out smoothly into the tire, but slam down on the pump and it resists compression. By churning the air into a turbulent state, the absorber similarly stiffens for big impacts but allows air to flow out more easily on smaller hits.

Traditional padding can only compress to its material thickness, but the shock absorber can expel all the air and fold completely flat. Like trying to stop a car in 100 yards instead of just 10, this additional distance reduces the dangerous acceleration the brain (or the car) withstands by providing more time to dissipate the energy (or stop the car). The chamber refills in approximately three milliseconds ensuring it’s ready for the next incoming linebacker. Ferrara claims the X1 provides reduced maximum acceleration as compared to competitors in low, medium and high energy impact testing. Developed over four years and with more than $10 million in financing, Xenith will provide 1,500 helmets to colleges and high schools this fall and plans a full launch in 2009. The helmets will retail at $350, as compared to leading competitors that range from $175 to $300. Ferrara has had early discussions with military brass and an active development for something customized to the battlefield could begin this fall.

(Hat tip to Wired. Also, I’ve discussed the Xenith X1 before.)

Internet Traffic Begins to Bypass the U.S.

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

Internet Traffic Begins to Bypass the U.S. — with policy implications:

American intelligence officials have warned about this shift. “Because of the nature of global telecommunications, we are playing with a tremendous home-field advantage, and we need to exploit that edge,” Michael V. Hayden, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee in 2006. “We also need to protect that edge, and we need to protect those who provide it to us.”

Indeed, Internet industry executives and government officials have acknowledged that Internet traffic passing through the switching equipment of companies based in the United States has proved a distinct advantage for American intelligence agencies. In December 2005, The New York Times reported that the National Security Agency had established a program with the cooperation of American telecommunications firms that included the interception of foreign Internet communications.

Some Internet technologists and privacy advocates say those actions and other government policies may be hastening the shift in Canadian and European traffic away from the United States.

“Since passage of the Patriot Act, many companies based outside of the United States have been reluctant to store client information in the U.S.,” said Marc Rotenberg, executive director of the Electronic Privacy Information Center in Washington. “There is an ongoing concern that U.S. intelligence agencies will gather this information without legal process. There is particular sensitivity about access to financial information as well as communications and Internet traffic that goes through U.S. switches.”

But economics also plays a role. Almost all nations see data networks as essential to economic development. “It’s no different than any other infrastructure that a country needs,” said K C Claffy, a research scientist at the Cooperative Association for Internet Data Analysis in San Diego. “You wouldn’t want someone owning your roads either.”

Indeed, more countries are becoming aware of how their dependence on other countries for their Internet traffic makes them vulnerable. Because of tariffs, pricing anomalies and even corporate cultures, Internet providers will often not exchange data with their local competitors. They prefer instead to send and receive traffic with larger international Internet service providers.

This leads to odd routing arrangements, referred to as tromboning, in which traffic between two cites in one country will flow through other nations. In January, when a cable was cut in the Mediterranean, Egyptian Internet traffic was nearly paralyzed because it was not being shared by local I.S.P.’s but instead was routed through European operators.

The issue was driven home this month when hackers attacked and immobilized several Georgian government Web sites during the country’s fighting with Russia. Most of Georgia’s access to the global network flowed through Russia and Turkey. A third route through an undersea cable linking Georgia to Bulgaria is scheduled for completion in September.

Ms. Claffy said that the shift away from the United States was not limited to developing countries. The Japanese “are on a rampage to build out across India and China so they have alternative routes and so they don’t have to route through the U.S.”

Andrew M. Odlyzko, a professor at the University of Minnesota who tracks the growth of the global Internet, added, “We discovered the Internet, but we couldn’t keep it a secret.” While the United States carried 70 percent of the world’s Internet traffic a decade ago, he estimates that portion has fallen to about 25 percent.

American Apparel’s New Image

Wednesday, September 3rd, 2008

Fast Company writes about American Apparel's New Image — it went from emphasizing its “ethical” sweatshop-free production to “sexy T-shirts for young people” — but what interested me was its new internal emphasis on efficient operations:

The company’s — and Charney’s — image had gotten so much attention that nobody seemed to bother checking into how its actual business might have changed. So I met with Marty Bailey, the company’s vice president of operations. Quiet, serious, soft-spoken, and fully clothed, Bailey was an industry veteran who had begun his long education in manufacturing efficiency — and the hard realities of globalization — with Fruit of the Loom more than 20 years earlier. He had come to see offshore outsourcing as a mixed proposition. He believed that its promised labor savings had been diluted by the costs of moving materials to the cheap-labor haven and back, and by sacrificed quality. He believed that with the right plan, a U.S. manufacturer could still make money.

American Apparel’s factory was, he reckoned, the 41st manufacturing facility he had walked into with the mission of improving efficiency. The company was producing 32,000 pieces a day and struggling to keep up with orders. In months, Bailey’s system was churning out 90,000 pieces a day and would eventually reach 250,000. While the company was projecting an air of almost reckless decadence in its ads, it was quietly building a thriving made-in-America business model.