How to Fail Less

Tuesday, April 17th, 2012

Derek Thompson interviews Steve Blank on the secrets of start-ups — or how to fail less:

Can you really teach entrepreneurship?

Many people say you can’t. They’re ignorant. But it was true that we didn’t know how to teach entrepreneurship for decades, because we didn’t understand how start-ups were different from large companies.

Large companies execute. Start-ups in their early stage don’t execute. They search. And for a long time, we had no tools for search. But in the last few years, we’ve started to build the equivalent of an execution plan for start-ups. We’ve cracked the code for early stage ventures. We can say that we know how to make start-ups fail less.

Tell me how you teach entrepreneurship. What does it mean to learn how to search?

The old entrepreneurship class was: Let’s write a business plan do a PowerPoint presentation for the investors. But that plan is a static item. It says, “Here’s my idea. Here’s the opportunity. Here’s the team. Here’s the forecast.” It has no learning. I teach at Stanford and Berkley. Let me tell you, the smartest kids in the world can put together a great plan with no bearing on reality.

So I came up with the idea of a “Lean Launchpad.” It’s been picked up by various universities and the US government. The Lean Launchpad says: We don’t care about your initial hypotheses. The hypothesis is just a thought. The safest bets are probably all wrong. Your initial guess about customer and price are going to be wrong. About 950 of the 1000 best start-ups don’t execute their first plan.

The old process — Does you hypothesis seem good? Here’s a grade. — is great for professors because we can grade it. In my class, you test these hypotheses. You talk to 15 customers a day. You’re doing constant iterations. Every once in a while, you come up against the facts just don’t match. That major change is called the pivot.

A pivot sounds terrifying for a team that put months and thousands of hours into executing what they thought was a great idea.

It is scary. But embracing the pivot is neat way to look at things. In the old days, we fired the VP of sales and the VP marketing if the plan didn’t work. Our thinking is, don’t fire the people first. Fire the plan first. Your first start-up ideas are just guesses you pulled out of somewhere. They’re probably wrong. The new way to teach is as hypothesis-testing.

Making Money through Online Education

Wednesday, April 11th, 2012

I didn’t realize the business model online educators like Udacity were considering:

And Mr. Thrun’s new company, Udacity, which is supported by Charles River Ventures, plans to, essentially, monetize its students’ skills — and help them get jobs — by getting their permission to sell leads to recruiters.

“We’re going to have detailed records on thousands of students who have learned these skills, many of whom will want to make those skills available to employers,” said Mr. Evans, the Virginia professor. “So if a recruiter is looking for the hundred best people in some geographic area that know about machine learning, that’s something we could provide, for a fee. I think it’s the cusp of a revolution.”

Where Business Titans Work Out

Tuesday, April 10th, 2012

Sitaras Fitness, on East 58th Street in Manhattan, is where business titans work out — including James D. Robinson III, Sandra Navidi, George Soros, Fred Adler and Larry Neubauer:

It’s Mr. Sitaras’s proprietary personal training program that separates his center from other high-end clubs. Under the program, clients must undergo six hours of mandatory tests, spread out over six visits, that measure the strength, flexibility and endurance of more than 35 major muscles and joints.

The results are then entered into a software program that Mr. Sitaras designed. It uses more than 5,000 variables, he says, to draw up a personalized fitness program. All clients must commit to at least two personal training sessions a week. Each of their workouts is tracked and monitored, and the program is adjusted as fitness improves.

Mr. Sitaras also recently unveiled an advanced digital tracking room, which notes and evaluates each muscle’s capacity, improvement and weakness.

[...]

He worked as an assistant for a physiotherapist, Dr. Norman Marcus in Manhattan, and then worked at local fitness clubs such as Sports Club/LA, Sparta, and Lift Fitness, where he built his clientele and reputation.

Unhappy with what he called a cookie-cutter approach to fitness at many gyms, he developed his own system and, with only $17,000, embarked on a plan to open his own gym. “Within a short period of time, I had a really good following,” including some well-known Wall Street clients who spread the word among their friends, Mr. Sitaras says.

He picked the brains of those financial clients for business advice — and received financing from them. Investors put in nearly $1.5 million, and the club opened in November 2007.

[...]

Sitaras charges no initiation fee; monthly fees are $150, and members must commit to at least two personal training sessions a week at $115 a pop, which means that total annual fees start at $13,760.

Sophie la Girafe

Saturday, April 7th, 2012

Sophie la Girafe is a French teething toy created in 1961 — and a global star:

Priced at $25 in the U.S., compared with less than $5 for more ordinary teethers, Sophie is stocked in high-end baby boutiques around the world, including Mexico, Japan and Australia. The offspring of celebrities such as Sandra Bullock and Kate Hudson have been photographed clutching the giraffe.

[...]

Vulli’s sales of €22 million ($29 million) have more than quadrupled since 2006, just before Sophie was first sold outside France. This year, for the first time, the company expects to sell more outside of France than domestically.

That’s saying something, because in France, Sophie is a national tradition. In 2010, Vulli sold 816,000 giraffes in France, and 828,000 babies were born, meaning that nearly every French newborn got one.

Sophie isn’t nearly as elite at home in France. Local supermarkets sell the blister-packaged toy for $12, less than half of its U.S. sticker price.

The Stoner Arms Dealers

Friday, April 6th, 2012

Guy Lawson of Rolling Stone calls David Packouz and Efraim Diveroli the stoner arms dealers as he describes how their $300 million contract to deliver guns and ammo to the Afghans on behalf of the American government started to unravel:

But as Packouz’s miso-marinated Chilean sea bass arrived, his cellphone rang. It was the freight forwarder he had employed to make sure the ammunition made it from Hungary to Kabul. The man sounded panicked.

“We’ve got a problem,” he told Packouz, shouting to be heard over the restaurant’s thumping music. “The plane has been seized on the runway in Kyrgyzstan.”

The arms shipment, it appeared, was being used as a bargaining chip in a high-stakes standoff between George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin. The Russian president didn’t like NATO expanding into Kyrgyzstan, and the Kyrgyzs wanted the U.S. government to pay more rent to use their airport as a crucial supply line for the war in Afghanistan. Putin’s allies in the Kyrgyz KGB, it seemed, were holding the plane hostage — and Packouz was going to be charged a $300,000 fine for every day it sat on the runway. Word of the seizure quickly reached Washington, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates himself was soon on his way to Kyrgyzstan to defuse the mounting tensions.

Packouz was baffled, stoned and way out of his league. “It was surreal,” he recalls. “Here I was dealing with matters of international security, and I was half-baked. I didn’t know anything about the situation in that part of the world. But I was a central player in the Afghan war — and if our delivery didn’t make it to Kabul, the entire strategy of building up the Afghanistan army was going to fail. It was totally killing my buzz. There were all these shadowy forces, and I didn’t know what their motives were. But I had to get my shit together and put my best arms-dealer face on.”

Sitting in the restaurant, Packouz tried to clear his head, cupping a hand over his cellphone to shut out the noise. “Tell the Kyrgyz KGB that ammo needs to get to Afghanistan!” he shouted into the phone. “This contract is part of a vital mission in the global war on terrorism. Tell them that if they fuck with us, they are fucking with the government of the United States of America!”

Ikea Urbanism

Wednesday, April 4th, 2012

Ikea’s LandProp Services is bringing Scandinavian urban design to England:

Amid this 11-hectare expanse of ancient rusting machinery, waste piles and grinding construction equipment is a converted brick sugar warehouse where a team of Swedes and Brits are poring over blueprints and renderings. LandProp Services bought the land in 2009. Their vision is to turn this grey netherworld, once planning approval is done, into a tightly packed neighbourhood they’ll call Strand East.

It will look, once complete, like a reproduction of the sort of historic, chic downtown neighbourhoods you find in the far more central parts of London or Paris, not in this distant expanse of former dockyards and bloodless public-housing project. At its core are straight, car-free streets lined with simple townhouses and ground-floor-access flats in five-storey rows. In the alleyways behind – an imitation of the classic London backstreet, the mews – will be little two- and three-storey homes, all with direct access to the street.

The 1,200 homes and apartments, 40 per cent of them large enough for families (making it a much more child-filled place than most post-industrial developments), will be priced to appeal to a range of incomes, the Swedes promise. A few seven- to 11-storey condominium towers will pepper the area, and offices for high-tech firms and a hotel will fill the busier edges. Secreted beneath the whole structure is an underground parking garage, to keep cars off the interior streets. Bus lanes and pedestrian walkways will cut across it, squares and public areas abound. The whole thing is designed to create the sense of felicity and discovery you get when wandering a historic European neighbourhood – or, for that matter, an Ikea store.

[...]

But what might make it seem alien to Brits and North Americans is Ikea’s very active role in the neighbourhood’s life – in large part because the houses will be fully owned by Ikea. In a model that is the norm in Sweden and other parts of continental Europe, but alien to English-speaking countries, this will be an all-rental private neighbourhood, run and overseen by a private company.

[...]

The answer, Mr. Müller says, is that the Swedes have a long-term interest in success – much like a municipal council does, and, in fact, Ikea will be acting very much like a municipal government.

After all, what IKEA is really doing here is finding a place to sink a small part of its huge pile of cash. They want to earn a profit over 10 to 20 years, not the three or four years of a conventional property developer – and are therefore very interested in the long-term livability of the project.

“We’re just securing our money long-term – and of course creating more profits at the end,” Mr. Müller says. “But we are acting as a long-term investor, we are equity-driven, so we are acting very differently from a developer.” In a very real sense, the furniture company wants to invest its money in your entire life.

Hobbit Holes

Saturday, March 31st, 2012

An Etsy seller has built a series of Bag End children’s playhouses:

This Hobbit Hole playhouse is 12′ wide, has a maximum interior height of 6’3″ and about 50 square feet of floor space. Comes painted as shown. Comes with a set of plexiglass and screen windows. Has a pressure treated floor system and all cedar framing. Floor is urethane-treated sanded plywood.

The real expense is likely excavation.

(Hat tip to io9.)

Romantica

Monday, March 19th, 2012

Electronic readers, like the Kindle, are the ultimate brown paper wrapper, boosting sales of women’s romantica:

As with romance novels, romantica features an old-fashioned love story and pop-culture references like those found in “chick lit.” Plus, there is sex — a lot of it. Yet unlike traditional erotica, romantica always includes what’s known as “HEA” — “happily ever after.”

[...]

Romance fans were among the earliest adopters of e-reading. Nearly 40% of all new romance books purchased are in digital form, says Kelly Gallagher, vice president of Bowker Market Research. In erotica, the digital portion is that high or higher, he says. It is about 20% for other adult trade genres — except for mysteries, which have recently caught up with romance.

Power Trip

Friday, February 24th, 2012

Power Trip is a darkly amusing documentary that looks at what happened when a bunch of dopey foreigners working for Dennis Bakke‘s AES tried to bring their “responsible” and “fun” corporate values to the former Soviet republic of Georgia after buying the nation’s nominally privatized power company.

The Americans and Brits make sure to open up their office space and delegate as much authority as possible. Meanwhile, the power they’re buying from the national supplier is going to politically connected players and not to them.  And their customers feel no duty to pay them.

(It’s free for subscribers to stream from Amazon Prime. Addendum: Apparently it was available until very, very recently.)

5-Hour Energy

Friday, February 17th, 2012

I don’t quite understand the allure of 5-Hour Energy, which packages the caffeine of a large coffee or over-the-counter pill into a vile-tasting two-ounce “shot” — but it has made Manoj Bhargava, now 58, a lot of money:

Bhargava was born into affluence in Lucknow, India, thriving capital of the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. His family left their comfortable villa to move to America in 1967 so his father could pursue a doctorate at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business.

Their new residence — a third-floor walkup in West Philadelphia that rented for $80 a month — offered a potentially dispiriting contrast to life in Lucknow. But young Bhargava was, if anything, inspired, using his talent for mathematics to win a full scholarship to The Hill School, an elite private academy.

When he was 17, Bhargava became an entrepreneur, purchasing a Chevy dump truck for $400 and removing debris from demolition sites in poverty-stricken North Philly. He banked $600 over a summer, then resold the truck for what he’d paid for it. This was his first taste of profit, and he liked it — no matter the squalor that surrounded the enterprise (rats larger than cats, murders taking place nearby).

Bhargava made it to Princeton in 1972, but what he found — a snobbish social scene and insufficiently-challenging math courses — didn’t agree with him. He left after one year, moving back in with his parents, who had relocated to Fort Wayne, Ind., where his father had a PVC plastics company.

The country was in the economic doldrums, and Bhargava was adrift. He began to read about a Hindu saint whose life had been spent on a spiritual quest; it struck him as a worthy pursuit. By 1974, he was back in the country of his birth.

Bhargava wasn’t, strictly speaking, a monk, but “it’s the closest Western word,” he says, for what he did in India. He spent 12 years on and off in ashrams, trying to learn to “still the mind,” but came back to the U.S. from time to time, where he took odd jobs such as cab driver. Once he returned to America to stay, he obliged his parents, who had been rather upset about his dropping out of Princeton, by going into the family business.

Despite having absolutely no interest in plastics, Bhargava became something of a turnaround artist. By 2001, the company had become a serious success, with $25 million in annual sales. Financially secure, he moved to Michigan, where his wife’s family lived, and declared himself retired.

But Bhargava had learned an important lesson from his time in PVC manufacturing: “Chemicals are really simple,” he told Forbes. “You mix a couple things together and sell it for more than the materials cost.” He applied that simple idea in the spring of 2003, after attending a natural products trade show in Anaheim, Calif. There he encountered a booth whose attendants were hawking a 16-ounce elixir that purported to raise productivity for hours. Bhargava drank it, and was impressed. “For the next six or seven hours I was in great shape. I thought, Wow, this is amazing. I can sell this.”

But not exactly that. Sixteen ounces was too much — too much like the recently-released Red Bull, and sure to have to compete head to head with Coke and Pepsi. So Bhargava looked over the ingredient list, and cooked up his own, much lower-in-volume version.

The formula: “a blend of B-vitamins [like niacin], amino acids [such as taurine] and nutrients,” and “about as much caffeine as a cup of premium coffee,” according to 5-Hour’s website. But as Forbes reports, a 2010 independent analysis by ConsumerLab.com determined that 5-Hour contained levels of vitamins “thousands of times higher than recommended daily allowances,” as well as “207mg of caffeine — a massive amount per ounce, but less than the 260mg in a Starbucks tall coffee.” Still, it clocked in at only four calories and contained no sugar at all — major selling points featured prominently on 5-Hour’s diminutive, shrink-wrapped bottle.

It took Bhargava only six months, from the time he sipped that inspiring potion, to get 5-Hour into stores. Then his sales team went to work, convincing GNC (GNC) to carry it, then Walgreens (WAG), Rite Aid (RAD), and regional grocers like Sheetz.

But his greatest triumph was landing 5-Hour in the Walmart (WMT) checkout aisle. (Every Walmart store in the U.S. sells all four flavors of 5-Hour; Sam’s Club carries 24-packs.) “Getting it next to the register isn’t hard,” Rise Meguiar, Living Essentials’s vice president of sales, told Forbes. “Keeping it there? Very hard. Anything that sells, the stores will try. To own that space is really hard.”

“What we did wasn’t rocket science,” math whiz Bhargava told Forbes. “It’s not the little bottle. It’s not the placement. It’s the product. You can con people one time, but nobody pays $3 twice.”

Why Manga Publishing Is Dying

Sunday, February 12th, 2012

American sales of Japanese-style comics, or manga, have dropped 43 percent since their heyday in 2007, even further than American sales of American comics.

Apparently Borders’ bankruptcy did not help, because Borders led the way in selling manga and may have represented a third of all manga sales in the US.

Manga sales aren’t great in Japan though, either. They peaked in their homeland in 1995.

While manga publishing is dying, as a business, the product is still popular — just not with paying customers. So-called “scanlation” aggregators make the pirated product available online for free, and the old-school publishers haven’t adapted.

As usual, the fans analyzing the problem don’t understand fixed costs, variable costs, and bundling:

One problem is that Japanese manga publishers still rely on magazines to launch new titles, and the magazine model itself is obsolete. If you’re buying songs on iTunes, you don’t need to buy an entire album when all you want is one song. And there’s no way I’m signing up for Starz network when I only want to watch Torchwood: Miracle Day.

In the same way, manga readers can’t be expected to buy an entire 400-page manga magazine anymore when they only want to read their one favorite title.

It doesn’t cost the publishers one-tenth as much to produce just the 40 pages you want to read. Again, really, you’re not paying for the channels you never watch.

Spotting the Great but Imperfect Resume

Thursday, February 9th, 2012

Employers look for candidates with perfect resumes, but that can backfire:

Directors of summer internship programs, for example, have soured on seemingly “perfect” students with 3.9 grade-point averages from elite schools, who have mastered multiple foreign languages. The reason: these recruits show surprisingly little initiative once they arrive at a big, busy company; they keep waiting to be told what to do. Ultra-rigorous screening of internship candidates has inadvertently eliminated the freewheeling mavericks of previous eras. Those earlier interns might have lacked great transcripts, but they didn’t need anyone’s permission to try something bold.

Small-company chief executive officers voice a similar lament. They are eager to hire lieutenants whose career zigzags have created a burning desire to succeed in a new job. In the boardroom, though, such plans elicit frowns. Directors keep nudging these CEOs to play it safe, filling the management team with steady performers whose work history closely matches the job at hand, even if there’s no sense of “wow!” in the job interviews.

Insist on a perfect resume each time, and it’s impossible to make the most of highly promising candidates with “jagged resumes.” The lost opportunities can be excruciating. Imagine the remorse of a venture capitalist unwilling to back Steve Jobs in 1977, because the personal-computer pioneer never finished college. For that matter, consider Apple’s fate in the 1990s, if the company hadn’t invited Jobs back for a second turn at leading the company, even though his first run ended in dismissal.

In researching The Rare Find, George Anders settled on two key insights:

First, organizations that consider jagged resumes have clear ideas of what high points they must see. Teach for America looks for perseverance. The New England Patriots look for a deep-seated desire to play football, not just to be a famous athlete. Linear Technology looks for tinkerers, who have been experimenting with electrical circuits since childhood.

In all these cases, organizations seize on a few central character traits that are well known internally as future markers of likely success. Such enterprises think harder about which candidates might grow the most on the job, rather than which ones already possess all needed competencies for the task at hand. Traits such as resilience, efficiency, curiosity and self-reliance are among the most likely ones to be prized. This bolder hiring philosophy can be summed up by the maxim: “Compromise on experience. Don’t compromise on character.”

Second, connoisseurs of the jagged resume have well-thought-out ideas about which apparent shortcomings don’t matter (and which ones do.) Hopscotch work histories often are viewed leniently. Quirky personalities and inconsistent grades can be forgiven, too. There’s no forbearance, though for lapses in ethics, an inability to work with people, or a lack of motivation. Jagged-resume hiring can succeed only if the cultural fit between candidate and company is unusually good, so warning flags in that area are taken seriously.

How Darcie Chan Became a Best-Selling Author

Monday, February 6th, 2012

Darcie Chan was a thirty-something lawyer drafting environmental legislation for the US Senate when she found her novel, The Mill River Recluse turned down by a dozen publishers. She decided instead to self-publish and soon sold 400,000 copies:

She bought some ads on Web sites targeting e-book readers, paid for a review from Kirkus Reviews, and strategically priced her book at 99 cents to encourage readers to try it. She’s now attracting bids from foreign imprints, movie studios and audio-book publishers, without selling a single copy in print.

Only a handful of self-published authors have sold more than a million copies of their books on the Kindle:

While they represent a tiny minority of independent authors, the ranks of the successful are growing. Thirty authors have sold more than 100,000 copies of their books through Amazon’s Kindle self-publishing program, and a dozen have sold more than 200,000 copies, according to Amazon.

[...]

Self-published titles have been buoyed by an explosion in digital book sales. E-book sales totaled $878 million in 2010, compared to $287 million in 2009, according to the Association of American Publishers. Some analysts project that e-book sales will pass $2 billion in 2013.

[...]

Several successful self-published authors have gone on to cut deals with major publishers. After selling around 1.5 million digital copies of her books on her own, 27-year-old fantasy writer Amanda Hocking signed with St. Martin’s Press. She won a $2 million advance for a new four-book fantasy series called “Watersong”; St. Martin’s will also reprint her best-selling self-published “Trylle” trilogy about attractive teenage trolls.

Self-published thriller and Western writer John Locke, whose 13 books have sold more than 1.7 million digital copies, signed an unusual contract with Simon & Schuster in August. The publishing house will print and distribute his books—the first title comes out next month—while allowing Mr. Locke to remain as the publisher. Mr. Locke is paying for the printing, shipping and marketing costs himself, according to his agent. The print editions, which will sell as mass-market paperbacks for $4.99, won’t be edited. “The opportunity to get into bookstores, Targets, Wal-Marts, Costcos, airports—I can’t do that as an independent author,” Mr. Locke says.

J.A. Konrath, a mystery writer who has sold 400,000 digital copies of his self-published books, earning some $500,000 a year, signed a contract with Amazon’s new mystery imprint to publish his novel “Stirred,” co-written with Blake Crouch, digitally and in print. It recently hit No. 1 on the Kindle top-100 list. Mr. Konrath says he was won over by Amazon’s powerful marketing machinery. “They can really blow my books up,” he says.

The World’s Most Fabulous Airport

Saturday, February 4th, 2012

Singapore’s Changi is arguably the world’s most fabulous airport:

Since it opened in 1981, the airport has notched more than 370 “best” awards world-wide from travel trade groups and publications. A look at its operations reveals much about how to run a top-notch airport—and ways other airports could improve.

The airport offers amenities found elsewhere only in airlines’ fancy lounges for premium passengers. There are comfortable areas for sleeping or watching TV, premium bars, work desks and free Internet. A nap room is about $23 for three hours; a shower can be had for $6. If you want to put your feet in a tank with tiny fish that eat dead skin, that’s $17 for 20 minutes.

The pool is free to guests of the airport’s in-transit hotels; otherwise it’s about $11 a person. A bus tour of Singapore is offered free by the airport. The tour is arranged so that passengers don’t have to clear immigration—the airport retains passports so passengers don’t run off.

Simple steps matter, like minimizing annoying announcements and honking carts and instead playing soothing music to reduce stress. Placing rival currency-exchange booths and clothing stores side-by-side stimulates competition. Touch screens in bathrooms let travelers send text messages to supervisors when toilet paper runs out, for example.

Changi figures such perks entice passengers to spend more money at the airport and select Singapore over other connecting hubs. About 750,000 square feet of concession space—approximately the size of a suburban shopping mall—provides 50% of the airport’s revenue, helping to pay for amenities and keep down costs to airlines. The airport says its merchants recorded $1 billion in retail sales last year.

A four-story amusement-park type slide is even tied into retail. If you want to use the slide, you have to have a receipt from an airport merchant showing roughly $8 and up in purchases. Without that, you can only ride the bottom 1½ stories of the slide.

Terminal 3, the largest, opened in 2008 with skylights, a wall of windows and an interior wall covered in plants rotated out of the airport’s greenhouse. It is a city unto itself: dry cleaners, medical center with everything from dental care to fertility treatments, a grocery store, pharmacy, flower shop, jewelry stores, clothing stores and an indoor amusement park for kids with a balloon bounce house.

Matthew Broderick’s Day Off

Friday, February 3rd, 2012

I still have a soft spot for Ferris Bueller’s Day Off — and I’m still not interested in the Honda CR-V: