MBA startups at Stanford reach all-time high

Wednesday, June 13th, 2012

A record-breaking 16% of the Stanford’s Graduate School of Business class of 2011 chose to start their own companies at graduation, exceeding the school’s 12% peak during the dot-com boom:

About 30% started companies in Internet services and e-commerce, but 15% ventured into investment and financial services, and 7% each in food and beverages, retail or wholesale, and sport or sports management. Roughly 5% of the Stanford MBA entrepreneurs launched enterprises in healthcare, with another 5% in cleantech and alternative energy.

Gatorade Goes Back to the Lab

Tuesday, June 12th, 2012

Almost half a century ago, Gatorade made its name as a sports drink. Then PepsiCo made a fortune selling Gatorade cheaply in grocery stores and convenience stores as just another soft drink. Now Gatorade is going back to its roots:

Determined to walk away from discount-driven sales—or “rented volume,” as [Gatorade president Sarah] Robb O’Hagan calls it—the company decided in 2008 to turn away from couch potatoes who chugged Gatorade to wash down a cheeseburger or cure a hangover. Analysts gasped during a 2009 earnings call when PepsiCo Chief Executive Officer Indra K. Nooyi said such consumers — who had by then reverted to cheaper beverages like soft drinks and tap water — “didn’t really have a right to exist in the Gatorade world.” Harsh, perhaps, but it was Nooyi’s way of saying PepsiCo wasn’t selling out anymore.

[...]

“The huge aha! for me was, ‘We’re an athletic performance brand, we’re selling in convenience stores, grocery stores, Wal-Mart (WMT), but we don’t even show up in a sporting goods store, in a cycling store, in a place where an athlete actually goes to equip themselves to play sports,’?” she says. Robb O’Hagan has since brought Gatorade back to athletes and to the science that gave the brand its credibility.

First developed by researchers at the University of Florida in 1965, Gatorade took off quickly with college and professional athletes because it has a formula proven on the playing field. By 1983 it had became the National Football League’s official sports drink. In 2001, PepsiCo bought the $2 billion-a-year brand, and the soft-drink and snack giant spent the better part of the decade pushing Gatorade through its massive distribution system. PepsiCo introduced hundreds of flavors and package deviations, including a breakfast version, Gatorade A.M., pitched by Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. The strategy made sense at the time, Robb O’Hagan allows, but it crashed along with the economy in 2008. In 2007 the sports-drink category had mushroomed to $8 billion a year in the U.S., and Gatorade controlled 80 percent, according to industry newsletter Beverage Digest. Within three years, the sports-drink market had declined by $1 billion, and Gatorade’s market share had eroded to 74.8 percent. Meanwhile, serious athletes were turning away from sports drinks to a raft of emerging products, including Jelly Belly Sport Beans, Bonk Breaker Energy Bars, and the Honey Stinger energy waffles endorsed by Tour de France champion Lance Armstrong. They bought Carbo-Pro powders in large tubs. Gatorade had mostly conceded these markets. “It’s our role to make anything to drive an athlete’s performance that goes inside their body,” Robb O’Hagan says, drawing a comparison to her former employer’s strategy. “Nike’s all about what’s outside your body. We’re about what’s inside.”

They can expect some challenges educating the customers about their new product lines:

Naturally, Gatorade can’t make individualized products for everyone; the company has to find common denominators. Its solution so far has been the G Series. The core line is targeted to “performance” athletes — competitive high school swimmers to adult basketball league players — who make up nearly a quarter of the U.S. population, Robb O’Hagan says. The series includes a 4-ounce carbohydrate-loaded “pre-game fuel” drink pouch designed to be easily torn open and squeezed into your mouth. The flavored recovery water in the series is packed with protein and carbohydrates.

G Series Fit moves down the ladder a bit and is intended for the roughly 55 million Americans aged 18 to 34 who exercise three times or more per week. These people work out to stay healthy, without necessarily competing. The supplements in Fit are scaled back to match less intense workouts. This line is where Gatorade’s departure from beverages is most pronounced so far: The main offering is a fruit-and-nut bar segmented into bite-size, 50-calorie squares. A fruit smoothie provides an after-workout dose of protein to help the athlete recover sooner.

G Series Pro, meanwhile, is a consumer version of products Gatorade had already been producing for professional athletes. A recovery bar contains whey and casein from milk protein for muscle growth. Vitamins and minerals in the bar boost muscle metabolism, Gatorade says, while carbohydrates help store energy in muscles and the liver in the form of glycogen sugar. Gatorade soon will roll out Pro chews — essentially Gummi Bears for endurance athletes — to compete with Gu Chomps and Clif Bloks that are a staple on long-distance courses. The company also sells two all-natural versions of its new drinks that use noncaloric sweeteners. Gatorade drinkers accustomed to buying 32-oz. bottles for 99¢ may experience sticker shock when it comes to the newest products. PepsiCo charges for its innovation. A 12-oz. bottle of the Pro pre-workout carbohydrate drink sells for $2.99.

This product lineup demands an equally dramatic shift in how and where PepsiCo distributes Gatorade in stores. Before Gatorade’s transformation, sales were split fairly evenly among grocery chains, club stores such as Wal-Mart, and convenience stores. “We are setting a different bar for how we are looking at retail,” says brand marketing Vice-President Fairchild, whom Robb O’Hagan recruited from Nike last year.

Gatorade has taken its Pro series into cycling and running specialty stores that cater to endurance athletes as well as health supplement stores such as GNC. “People come in and buy nutrition from me every day and spend hundreds of dollars,” says Julian Angus, 40, owner of Tempo Cyclery in Sarasota, Fla., who remembers a time last decade when only a few companies made products for elite athletes. Margins rival those of clothing and accessories, he says. Still, Angus was skeptical when Gatorade first pitched him on the products and started sending displays. He worried that customers, not realizing these were new offerings, would think they were being charged boutique prices for the same old drinks they could buy at the supermarket.

Performance athletes make up a quarter of the US population?  That seems optimistic.

Gallup’s Health and Healthcare survey asks Americans to say how frequently they participate in moderate sports or recreational activities, vigorous sports or exercise activities, and weight-lifting or weight-training.

Approximately 6 in 10 Americans indicate they regularly engage in moderate exercise (59% in 2007); about half as many regularly engage in vigorous exercise (32%); and about half as many as that report doing regular weight training (15%).

I would say those self-reported numbers set an upper bound.

Will Truckers Ditch Diesel for Natural Gas?

Friday, June 8th, 2012

Diesel prices are up, and natural-gas prices are down.  Will truckers ditch diesel for natural gas?

Rising diesel costs last year forced Waste Management Inc. to charge customers an extra $169 million, just to keep its garbage trucks fueled. This year, the nation’s biggest trash hauler has a new defensive strategy: it is buying trucks that will run on cheaper natural gas.

In fact, the company says 80% of the trucks it purchases during the next five years will be fueled by natural gas. Though the vehicles cost about $30,000 more than conventional diesel models, each will save $27,000-a-year or more in fuel, says Eric Woods, head of fleet logistics for Waste Management. By 2017, the company expects to burn more natural gas than diesel.

“The economics favoring natural gas are overwhelming,” says Scott Perry, a vice president at Ryder Systems Inc.,  one of the nation’s largest truck-leasing companies and a transporter for the grocery, automotive, electronics and retail industries.

The shale gas revolution, which cut the price of natural gas by about 45% over the past year, already has triggered a shift by the utility industry to natural gas from coal. Vast amounts of natural gas in shale rock formations have been unlocked by improved drilling techniques, making the fuel cheap and plentiful across the U.S.

[...]

Although the U.S. has loads of natural gas, adoption of natural gas vehicles has been spotty. Less than 0.1% of vehicles on American roads burn the fuel today and the percentage sagged slightly from 2005 to 2010, when federal policies encouraging their use waned. The number began edging up last year, lifted by market forces.

Meanwhile, in the Asia-Pacific region, natural gas vehicle sales have grown at an average annual clip of 42% during the past decade, according to NGV Global, a trade group formed in 1986 to promote gas-friendly policies. Pakistan led the list in 2010 with 2.7 million natural gas vehicles, though many are tiny tuk-tuks, out of a total of 13 million natural gas vehicles worldwide. The U.S. came in 14th with 112,000 natural gas vehicles.

[...]

The potential market is enormous. The 3.2 million big rigs on U.S. roads today burn some 25 billion gallons of diesel annually. Almost 7 million single-unit trucks, such as UPS or FedEx Corp. trucks, consume another 10 billion gallons of diesel.

Converting even a modest number of these trucks, which often get 5 to 8 miles a gallon, to natural gas could save significant amounts of money. Tailpipe emissions also would drop, since natural gas burns cleaner than diesel or gasoline.

If large numbers of fleet operators decided to embrace natural gas, it could rev up truck manufacturing, which slowed dramatically during the recession. North American heavy duty truck sales peaked in 2006 with 360,000 units, just ahead of tighter emission standards, and plunged to 110,000 units in 2009.

Noel Perry, principal at Transport Fundamentals Inc., a trucking research company in Lebanon, Penn., says one disadvantage of natural gas is that it isn’t as dense as diesel. CNG is only 25% as dense and LNG is 60% as dense. That means trucks need more tanks or bigger tanks to go as far, or they must refuel more often. That’s not a big deal for city buses or delivery trucks that go back to home base each night, where they can refuel. But it’s a problem for trucks that drive unpredictable routes or venture out into the hinterland.

As a meta note, I find it interesting how the vital information — the list of trade-offs between diesel and natural gas — comes at the end of the article.

Untangling “Hairballs”

Thursday, May 31st, 2012

3M has begun untangling the “hairballs” in its supply chain:

3M Co.’s Command picture-hanging hooks, made of plastic and strips of sticky foam, don’t look complicated. Until a couple of years ago, however, the Command production process meandered more than 1,300 miles through four factories in four states.

3M’s recently retired chief executive officer, George Buckley, branded such convoluted production trails as “hairballs.” The 110-year-old conglomerate is still trying to untangle them to wring costs out of one of the world’s most complex manufacturing enterprises.

[...]

The goal is to reduce cycle times — the period needed to go from ordering raw materials to delivering finished goods — by 25%.

Before the war on hairballs, the production process for Command hooks began at a 3M plant in Springfield, Mo., which made the adhesives. Those adhesives were shipped about 550 miles to a 3M plant in Hartford City, Ind., where they were applied to polyethylene foam.

The foam was shipped 600 miles to a contractor’s plant near Minneapolis, where the product was imprinted with the 3M logo and sliced into needed sizes. Then the product was trucked about 200 miles to central Wisconsin, where another contractor bundled adhesive foam with plastic hooks and put the product into blister packaging.

About two years ago, 3M consolidated these steps at its plant in Hutchinson, Minn., one of the super hubs, where Scotch tape, Nexcare bandages, furnace filters and other items are made.

That plant creates finished Command products for the Americas while sending giant rolls of unfinished sticky foam to Singapore and Poland, where they are tailored for Asian and European markets. The cycle time for making Command has dropped to 35 days from 100, Mr. Welsh says.

3M’s Littmann stethoscopes used to be made in steps involving 14 outside contractors and three 3M plants. Now all processes are being brought into a plant in Columbia, Mo. The cycle time will fall to 50 days from 165, Mr. Welsh promises.

Hairballs mean more inventory costs because at each geographically separate production stage a buffer stock of unfinished items is kept to cope with any disruptions in the flow from another plant. Holding that inventory is expensive in terms of space and cash sunk into materials waiting to become merchandise.

Why did 3M let some processes get so complicated? Part of it, says Mr. Welsh, is the company’s risk-averse culture. An old saying at 3M is “make a little, sell a little.” In other words, don’t buy a lot of new machinery and set up plants until a product has proved itself in the market.

So 3M product developers would look around for available machines and expertise even if it was hundreds of miles away. That meant 3M could keep machinery running round the clock more often, gaining efficiency. But it also meant more costs for shipping and longer production cycles. Now 3M’s goal is to ramp up production much faster when it has a hit product and avoid “disjointed supply chains,” Mr. Welsh says.

Lean Ulysses

Monday, May 28th, 2012

This jolt of lean — as in lean manufacturing — comes from The Personal Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant — the general who won the war that spawned our modern Memorial Day:

There never was a corps better organized than was the quartermaster’s corp with the Army of the Potomac in 1864. With a wagon-train that would have extended from the Rapidan to Richmond, stretched along in single file and separated as the teams necessarily would be when moving, we could still carry only three days’ forage and about ten to twelve days’ rations, besides a supply of ammunition.

To overcome all difficulties, the chief quartermaster, General Rufus Ingalls, had marked on each wagon the corps badge with the division color and the number of the brigade. At a glance, the particular brigade to which any wagon belonged could be told. The wagons were also marked to note the contents: if ammunition, whether for artillery or infantry; if forage, whether grain or hay; if rations, whether bread, pork, beans, rice, coffee or whatever it might be.

Empty wagons were never allowed to follow the army or stay in camp. As soon as a wagon was empty, it would return to the base of supply for a load of precisely the same article that had been taken from it. Empty trains were obliged to leave the road free for loaded ones. Arriving near the army they would be parked in fields nearest to the brigades they belonged to. Issues, except of ammunition, were made at night in all cases.

No More Harvard Debt

Friday, May 25th, 2012

I’m not quite sure what to say about Joe Mihalic’s No More Harvard Debt project:

I’m guessing he didn’t major in finance at HBS. Half of his decisions seems perfectly sensible…

Buying Olympic Gold with Visa

Wednesday, May 16th, 2012

Americans no longer dominate the Olympics, but the top three decathletes are all Americans — apparently because of a little decision by Visa years ago:

For nearly a decade, the credit-card giant Visa provided funding for the U.S. decathlon team. But in a demonstration of how far a modest amount can go, that funding ended nearly 13 years ago and never added up to a fortune. “It really was almost a rounding error in our budget,” said John Bennett, a retired Visa marketing executive who has been hailed as “the Godfather” of American decathlon.

[...]

But this decline [after Bruce Jenner's 1976 win] bothered many in track circles, particularly Fred Samara, a former Olympic decathlete and the men’s track-and-field coach at Princeton. Along with fellow decathlete coach Harry Marra, Samara began knocking on corporate doors in search of funding. “We beat the bushes,” said Samara. “I mean, it was a long succession of pitches that didn’t go anywhere” — until they approached Visa. As an international Olympic sponsor, Visa was already spending $40 million on the Games. But Bennett, its marketing honcho, was intrigued. “I said, ‘Well, what do you need?’” Bennett recalled.

They created the USA-Visa Decathlon team, granting membership to the top-10 finishers at the annual national championships. Each athlete would receive a monthly stipend ranging from roughly $300 to $900, and the entire team would convene twice a year for national training camps, where they would receive top level-coaching. The entire program would cost just $200,000 per year.

Launched in 1990, the team recorded progress in 1992, when Dave Johnson secured America’s first decathlon medal in 16 years by taking a bronze. Four years later, Dan O’Brien broke a 20-year gold drought by finishing first at the Atlanta Games. America hasn’t gone without a decathlon medal since.

The Visa program ended in 2000, not long after Bennett retired. But its influence remains evident. Clay, the defending Olympic champion, attended Visa’s developmental programs as a youngster. At 32, Clay is hoping to become the first decathlete to win medals at three Olympic Games. “I would love to own that piece of history,” he said.

Eaton is coached by Marra, the cofounder of the Visa team. A three-time NCAA champion at the University of Oregon, Eaton is hoping at age 24 to win a spot at his first Olympics. And Hardee, who has posted two of the top three scores in the world since the Beijing Games, is coached by Mario Sategna, who competed as a member of the Visa team. Hardee, 28, was holding down fourth place in Beijing until he bonked the pole vault.

At the University of Arkansas, meanwhile, is a young hotshot named Gunnar Nixon — a freshman who holds the national high-school decathlon record. His coach studied under Kip Janvrin, who once starred on the Visa team. Marra said he considers Nixon to be a “third generation” product of the Visa program. “It’s heartwarming to see what we started still going forward,” said Marra.

How Ferragamo Remade the Shoe Industry

Wednesday, May 16th, 2012

Salvatore Ferragamo first made his name by developing comfortable, attractive, period-appropriate cowboy boots for Hollywood:

“The West would have been conquered earlier if they had had boots like these,” said director Cecil B. DeMille.

Then he developed the arch:

He enrolled at the University of Southern California, in Los Angeles, to study anatomy.

There, Ferragamo tested his theories about weight distribution and the human skeleton. And he realized that he, like everyone else, was making shoes wrong. By measuring the foot while flat, they were creating shoes that supported the ball and the heel only. But human feet, when they are wearing shoes, need arch support. Ferragamo began building it into his shoes, and suddenly his customers began telling him he made them the most comfortable shoes they’d ever worn.

After establishing a successful shoe shop in Los Angeles, he went back to Italy:

Over the years, to increase his inventory, he had begun to sell some machine-made footwear — made on his own arch-friendly lasts — but had never been satisfied with the quality of the shoes. He began to wonder why the factory model couldn’t be applied to handmade shoes. In Italy, where labor was cheaper than in America and shoemaking a more widespread artisanal craft, he could hire other cobblers to work for him, creating an assembly line on which every stage of manufacture would be touched by human hands.

Italian shoemakers weren’t won over easily, however. Ferragamo went first to Naples, where the cobblers laughed at his proposal. He tried Rome, Milan, Turin, Venice and Padua with no luck. Finally, he settled in Florence, all but bribing shoemakers to work for him by offering the highest wages around. With 60 men in his employ, Salvatore designed an 18-shoe collection. Then, after sailing back to New York, he invited the city’s top department-store buyers to his room at the Roosevelt Hotel to see his new shoes.

George Miller of the I. Miller department store was first to arrive. “You have nothing, nothing!” he proclaimed. “Go back to Hollywood.”

Ferragamo then called Manuel Gerton of Saks Fifth Avenue and braced himself.

Gerton was in a rush, but Ferragamo could see that his eyes were alight. “You have done something new, Salvatore,” he said. “You keep these shoes away from everyone. I want them.”

And so Ferragamos became the first Italian shoes ever to be exported and sold internationally.

The Great Depression and sanctions imposed on Italy almost killed his business. Then he developed the wedge.

How Unhip Amazon Can Walk the Fashion Runway

Tuesday, May 15th, 2012

How can a middle-brow company like Amazon become a credible source of fashion rather than merely apparel? Virginia Postrel offers a few suggestions:

Emphasize that you are providing a large market, rather than a mass market.

Mass markets spread the fixed cost of producing the same good over a lot of different buyers. They tend toward homogeneity and one-size-fits-all products. Large markets simply have a lot of people in them. A large population can transform a formerly unprofitable niche into a profitable market. The bigger the market, the more varied the goods. That’s why you find more variety in New York than in Kansas City.

The big advantage an online retailer like Amazon offers a fashion house is the chance to bring together all the potential customers scattered outside the largest cities. At the pricey end, at least, Amazon is not looking for a mass market. It is creating a large one — making room for many more niche brands and potentially for a given brand’s full line of styles. Success doesn’t depend on dumbing down fashion. And selection, not low prices, is the killer app.

Don’t be Macy’s when you can be Bloomingdale’s.

Macy’s Inc. owns both department stores, but Bloomingdale’s Inc. carries more expensive, exclusive fashion brands. Amazon’s primary site competes with middle-market Macy’s. It needs a different brand to compete with Bloomingdale’s. That could be MyHabit, its existing upscale flash-sale site, or it could be something new.

Audience With The King Of Space

Sunday, May 13th, 2012

I haven’t played Eve Online, but this interview with the head of the so-called Goon Fleet dips into political philosophy and the nature of leadership:

Autocracy is the most effective form of government in null sec [the enormous sections of space within Eve Online with no AI police, where players rule themselves]. Council systems don’t work very well.

[...]

Democracy is death. In a situation where you need to be able to respond quickly and with force to strategic problems, invasions or what have you, you can’t wait for a vote.

[...]

Eve is a fascinating social sandbox. People with the ability to bind people to them are rare in real life, and they are in Eve as well. One of the scariest moments for me in Eve was during our most recent campaign, the Fountain Campaign. We’d created this coalition called The Clusterfuck, and I was set to give this speech. Occasionally we do this, and we call it the State of the Goonion and it gets four hundred or five hundred people on Teamspeak. So I gave a speech and welcoming the Clusterfuck, and found one thousand, two hundred and seventy humans had tuned in to hear me talk about a bad game. And then we went off to break up the alliance we were at war with.

You can’t kill an alliance unless you break up the social bonds that hold it together. Espionage is only ever a means to an end to induce a failure cascade.

When things get bad, when an alliance starts losing enough that they stop logging in, when they start blaming each other and they start internalising their failures, then you start seeing “the graph”. An alliance goes into failure cascade when its capabilities have been degraded to the point that one failure piles on top of another, and they start shedding corporations, because rather than identifying with the alliance the pilots say “Well, I’m still a proud member of my corporation”, and then one corp goes its seperate ways. And if one corp stops showing up on operations, everyone else says “What the fuck is with these people?” And it becomes a circular firing squad.

During the Great Wars 1 and 2 we had destroyed Band of Brothers and taken their space, but they were still a cohesive social force and simply reformed. It was only most recently during the Fountain campaign that they went into true failure cascade, and are now three or four different alliances which hate each other’s guts now. Which is great!

Failure cascades just fascinate me. That’s why I play the game, really — to tear social groups apart. That’s the stuff that’s interesting about Eve. The political and social dimensions. Not the brackets shooting brackets shit. That’s why we say Eve is a bad game.

[...]

I used to actually be a very bad leader. Many years ago Remedial – the guy now facing 25 million dollars in fines  —  retired and made me CEO against my will, and I failed spectacularly. I listened to too many people and tried to poll my membership for what I should do, and it was a disaster. I handed leadership over to somebody who knew what they were doing and the organisation was much better for it.

Later, after watching so many failure cascades, I saw some commonalities in what made good and bad leaders. Through my spy network and watching the mistakes of others I developed into what I would call a good leader.

It’s essentially about delegation. People will show up and be good leaders, but they’ll try and do everything, then they’ll burn out, disappear and their alliance dies. For example, in Goonswarm we have a team structure. I’m the autocrat, but we have a finance team, a fleet commander team, a logistics team and so on, and these teams don’t have heads. These teams simply work together to solve common problems, and that removes single person dependencies which are a huge problem in alliances.

In some ways, it’s a lot more complicated than running a small business. Most small businesses are between a hundred and two hundred employees, or less. We run an organisation of six thousand people in a coalition of ten thousand.

[...]

The purpose of the autocrat is to essentially let the people who are experts do their jobs, make large strategic decisions and be a figurehead, but a lot of it’s just human resources work. Resolving disputes, hiring good people, firing bad people.

I don’t know shit about logisitics, I’m not a fleet commander — I’ve got spying down, but I’m just a leader. I’ve got the charisma. Micromanaging is death. It leaves you with good people wondering why the fuck some asshole is telling them how to run a logistics chain or what ships to use in the fleet they’re composing. A lot of other autocrats meddle too much.

(Hat tip to Buckethead.)

Game of Thrones on Track to be Most Pirated Show of 2012

Friday, May 11th, 2012

Game of Thrones is on track to be the most pirated show of 2012:

Approximately 25-million times have people decided to pay the iron price for the show, and as the comments on Reddit attest, it’s often because the gold price wasn’t even an option.

(So, The Oatmeal was right.)

I tried to watch Game of Thrones, and this is what happened

Wednesday, May 9th, 2012

I don’t regularly read The Oatmeal, but this “I tried to watch Game of Thrones, and this is what happened” strip is far too accurate:

(Hat tip to Gabriel Rossman, who asks, What’s HBO Go’s problem? And, if I may reiterate, you’re not really paying for all the channels you don’t watch.)

Viacom’s SpongeBob Crisis

Friday, May 4th, 2012

After 13 years on the air, SpongeBob is facing a crisis:

The average number of viewers aged 2 to 11 watching Spongebob at any given time dropped 29% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to Nielsen.

And because “Spongebob” is the backbone of Nickelodeon — accounting for as much as 40% of the network’s airtime late last year — it is dragging down the whole network. Nickelodeon’s ratings fell 25% in the quarter, after a more-modest fall-off in the second half of last year.

Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Todd Juenger notes that “SpongeBob” could affect the ratings of other Nickelodeon programming because children often change channels to find their favorites program, then stay tuned in to that network.

“SpongeBob” still averages two million viewers in the 2-11 age group during its top Saturday-morning showtime, according to Nielsen data provided by Nickelodeon. A Nickelodeon spokesman says “‘SpongeBob’ and the rest of our network were performing consistently well as it has for years until the sudden ratings decreases that we experienced in September. It remains the number one rated animated series in all of kids’ television and there is nothing that we have seen that points to ‘SpongeBob’ as a problem.”

The drop may be due to overexposure — “SpongeBob” accounted for 31% of Nickelodeon’s programming — or to its availability on Netflix — or to the Pediatrics paper noting that SpongeBob impairs kids’ thinking.

Is There A “Run” On Firearms Right Now?

Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012

Is there a “run” on firearms right now? Yes, CTD Mike says:

There have been several articles in the mainstream media about the boom in FBI NICS background checks. NICS checks only track sales of firearms through Federal Firearms License holders, so it is not an exact science. Guns sold in private sales between individuals do not require a NICS check (this is what politicians like to call the “gun show loophole”), so the NICS checks don’t represent the total number of guns sold. On the other hand, many gun stores, pawnbrokers, and online Web sites deal largely in used firearms, so not every NICS check represents the sale of a newly manufactured gun just entering the firearms market for the first time. The FBI says it received 16.3 million inquiries for NICS checks in 2011, up from 12.7 million in 2008 and 11.4 million in 2007. However, that does not mean four million more new-in-the-box firearms were sold last year compared to 2008. The Brady Campaign is actually circulating a claim that the number of total firearms owners in the U.S.A. is going down, but facts have never been important to them. Many Americans are buying their first gun, but there is also some anecdotal evidence that this surge in sales is due mostly to existing gun owners adding more guns to their collections. However, there are no hard statistical numbers supporting this, and as 2nd Amendment supporters we do not particularly want the government or anyone else to keep track of how many guns each gun owner keeps in their safe. Nevertheless, it is abundantly clear that right now, people are buying guns faster than manufacturers can build them.

We heard this over and over again at the 2012 SHOT Show when asking gun makers when we could expect to see their newest products on the market. Without exception, they all said not to expect the new products anytime soon, because they were focusing all their resources on filling the backorders for their existing product lines. Ruger announced on March 22, 2012 that they are temporarily suspending new orders for guns, because they have exceeded a million orders for firearms they have not built yet. That’s a pretty big backlog for a company that doesn’t outsource any components. Ruger makes everything in house so it’s not as if they are waiting to receive springs or magazines from some other company that has problems with production. They just simply cannot meet demand.

Are ammo makers cutting production because of an ammunition “glut”? Heck no:

Ammo sales have followed gun sales and are currently at record highs. Ammo companies are building cartridges as fast as they can, but raw components are harder to get and now cost more than ever before. Bulk military surplus ammo is largely a thing of the past. An executive order by President Bill Clinton in the late 1990s made it illegal for the U.S. military to sell surplus ammunition unless it was done through the government’s ODCMP Civilian Marksmanship Program. The Program does sell ammunition but has no U.S. government surplus on hand at this time. Cheaper Than Dirt sometimes gets inquiries about the bulk 5.56 NATO ammo we sell, asking whether it is some kind of “factory seconds” that didn’t make muster for the military. It is illegal to sell ammo intended for use by the U.S. military due to that executive order. Millions of rounds of that ammo, paid with your tax dollars, is burned every year instead. At the same time, a two-front war in Afghanistan and Iraq for the past decade has consumed untold amounts of cartridge components. The Government Accounting Office reported last year that the U.S. military fired an estimated 250,000 rounds of ammunition for every insurgent killed in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past ten years. Surplus? I wish! In fact, the U.S. military had to make a special ammo order from Israel to supplement the best efforts of ATK/Lake City. Total usage for training and combat has now reached about 1.8 billion rounds per year, or almost five million rounds of ammo expended every day. Those numbers are pretty difficult for me to comprehend.

Even if you don’t own a 5.56 rifle and you only shoot a .270 Winchester, the wars have greatly affected the cost of the components used to make your ammunition too. The lead and copper to make bullets, and the brass to make cases, all cost more now because we took all we had and shot it at bad guys halfway around the world. The cost of new ammunition has risen about 8% so far this year and we are just in March. Hornady is selling innovative “Steel Match” ammo in an attempt to prove that not all steel cased ammo has to be inaccurate Russian-made stuff. They would never have considered doing that only a few years ago. They just have to do something, anything, to keep their ammo affordable, and buying more brass isn’t affordable anymore. Look for other ammo companies to follow their example soon. Polymer-cased ammunition is also making a comeback. PCP Ammo came out with an improved plastic casing design and was promptly swamped with orders at SHOT Show this year. Where has all the brass gone? Well, it’s all over the ground in Fallujah and Marjah.

He also notes that scary black rifles have moved into the mainstream, outselling wood-stocked hunting rifles.

America’s Most Unlikely Business Guru

Monday, April 30th, 2012

The 1972 Chouinard catalog shaped the sport of climbing and changed the business of selling climbing equipment. Yvon Chouinard had taught himself how to blacksmith, and his pitons were the best in the business — until he decided that pitons were destroying the rock faces he loved, and he issued his “clean climbing” manifesto, which launched a whole new product line.

He and his wife own the entirety of his company, Patagonia, which brought in $414 million in sales last year — very little of it from climbing equipment:

The evolution of Patagonia into a clothing company began in the 1970s, when Chouinard — then a world-class mountain climber and a designer of mountaineering equipment — started importing durable rugby shirts and corduroy knickers for his climber pals to wear. Soon enough, Patagonia was designing its own line of clothes. Soon after that, sales of the clothes far outstripped sales of the climbing gear. This is how Yvon Chouinard became an accidental apparel mogul. This truly hit home when fashion models in New York City started wearing Patagonia fleece vests. He had no idea why, and didn’t really care. But he realized his life had changed.

Most corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives may do good, but few play to a company’s strengths:

Chouinard got his books in order. He vowed to run the company debt-free, which he now does. Then he looked at everything Patagonia made, shipped or processed, and resolved to do it all more responsibly. He changed materials, switching in 1996 from conventional to organic cotton — despite the fact that it initially tripled his supply costs — because it was less harmful to the environment. He created fleece jackets made entirely from recycled soda bottles. He vowed to create products durable enough and timeless enough that people could replace them less often, reducing waste. He put “The Footprint Chronicles” up on Patagonia’s website, exhaustively cataloging the environmental damage done by his own company. He now takes responsibility for every item Patagonia has ever made — promising either to replace it if the customer is dissatisfied, repair it (for a reasonable fee), help resell it (Patagonia facilitates exchanges of used clothes on its website), or recycle it when at last it’s no longer wearable.

To be sure, these initiatives also serve as effective branding. Part of Patagonia’s appeal stems from its commitment to the environment. Consider the clever reverse psychology of its recent advertising. Last November, on Black Friday — the unofficial American holiday of consumer gluttony — Patagonia took out a full-page ad in the “New York Times” with the bold-face headline “Don’t Buy This Jacket.” Below a picture of the fleece jacket in question, the ad copy listed, in grueling detail, how much water was wasted and carbon emitted in the course of its construction.

“I’ve never seen a company tell customers to buy less of its product,” marvels Harvard Business School professor Forest Reinhardt. “It’s a fascinating initiative. Yvon has the confidence to pull it off.” In fact, Chouinard says the ad boosted Patagonia sales — though he argues it didn’t drive more overall consumption, but rather stole existing customers from his competitors.

Reinhardt co-authored a Harvard Business School case study of Patagonia in 2010. Like many of the other business-school professors I spoke with about Patagonia, he seemed genuinely impressed by Chouinard. Which is logical: In one sense, Patagonia’s current success stems from classic business-school principles. The brand has maximized what B-school types refer to as WTP, or willingness to pay. Patagonia’s perceived quality and do-gooder aura convince customers that its goods are worth a higher price.

It’s not just the marketplace Chouinard is affecting — it’s the workplace. His flex-time policies allow workers to come and go whenever they want — say, when waves are high at the nearby surf point — as long as deadlines are met. There’s a yoga room available any time of day (I walked in on the head menswear designer meditating there at around 11 a.m. on a Tuesday.) At the prodding of Chouinard’s wife, Malinda, Patagonia was one of the first companies in California to provide on-site, subsidized day care. Even the chief bean counter, COO and CFO Rose Marcario, seems spiritually fulfilled. In previous jobs at other companies, she says, “I might have looked for ways to defer taxes in the Cayman Islands. Here, we are proud to pay our fair share of taxes. It’s a different philosophy. My life is more integrated with my work because I’m trying to stay true to the same values in both.”

Skeptics argue that this kind of feel-good stuff could never work at a giant, publicly listed corporation, or at one that doesn’t charge eye-popping prices for its gourmet gear. But when Chouinard counseled Walmart on sustainability, the retail behemoth found it actually saved money through environmental initiatives, like reducing its packaging and water consumption. “We are very focused on lowering prices for our customers,” says Fox. “There were some investments we needed to make at the beginning, but the returns were quick enough that it came back in a reasonable time frame.”

Similarly, Levi Strauss — with more than 10 times the annual revenue of Patagonia — has embraced Chouinard’s efforts to set data-driven benchmarks for improving apparel makers’ environmental practices. Levi’s has spent the past 18 months redesigning processes to save 45 million gallons of water, along with the energy that would have heated that water. This is not simply altruism. While the company won’t share specific numbers, “the business savings costs are real,” says Michael Kobori, Levi’s V.P. of social and environmental sustainability.

It says something about the way that people and organizations think that bottom-line oriented firms won’t make money-saving “green” changes in order to save money but only as a side-effect of being “forced” to examine their environmental impact.