Very wealthy people can hold lots of gatherings you can’t afford to hold

Saturday, November 22nd, 2025

Very wealthy people can hold lots of gatherings you can’t afford to hold, Eric Weinstein notes:

This is a superpower.

They then take what they learned at the last gathering, tweak it and repeat it at the next one, and repeat this to learn more and more. Dinner as an intelligence tool that pays for itself many times over.

Epstein did this. How do I know? Because he did it with Physicists and there aren’t all that many top ones with original ideas. So we all kinda know everyone in that circle.

Thus, when someone does this in a tiny scientific community, you knew exactly who he was tweaking if you were honest. “Oh that’s Lee and Carlo disagreeing in there…That’s Lisa…and I can hear Andy’s change of heart from last year too!”

It didn’t work on me just because I knew those people because it was a small science community. If it were sports or vacation destinations, it might not have been as obvious to me at all. This was a flaw in his construction.

Second Conclusion: He was holding gatherings and repeating scientists to each other. Scientists who wanted to see the magic trick for what it was could see it. Scientists who needed his grant money could also look past it because he wasn’t repeating things verbatim. Hence the disparity. Not going to lie: I also wanted to look past it. I just couldn’t ignore it for some reason. It was menacing, even before the Florida conviction.

Uranium is toxic as well as radioactive

Friday, November 21st, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesThe electromagnetic process they implemented at Oak Ridge entailed a number of special hazards, General Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), because uranium is toxic as well as radioactive:

Some of the raw materials were also extremely difficult to handle. High temperatures and pressures were involved and many irritants such as phosgene had to be used. Liquid nitrogen was used in large quantities at a temperature of –196° Centigrade. Huge amounts of electricity were used throughout the process. Each control cubicle, for example, of which there were ninety-six for each alpha track and thirty-six for each beta, consumed about as much electricity as a large radio station.

[…]

We had eight fatal accidents in all of our plant operations through December, 1946. Five people were electrocuted, one was gassed, one was burned and one was killed by a fall.

[…]

Despite all the difficulties that had to be overcome, the first shipment of enriched uranium was sent to Los Alamos in March, 1944, just a few days more than a year after the construction of the plant was begun.

[…]

The chemical side of the electromagnetic process, in fact of the entire project, has often been treated as a simple auxiliary to its more eye-catching atomic physics aspects. Actually, chemistry was the beginning and the end of each of the separation processes. Production efficiency could be won or lost in chemistry, as well as in physics. Each was indispensable.

[…]

The gaseous diffusion process, later termed the K-25 project, was a large scale multistage process for the separation of U-235 from U-238 by means of the principle of molecular effusion. The method was completely novel. It was based on the theory that if uranium gas was pumped against a porous barrier, the lighter molecules of the gas, containing U-235, would pass through more rapidly than the heavier U-238 molecules. The heart of the process was, therefore, the barrier, a porous thin metal sheet or membrane with millions of submicro-scopic openings per square inch. These sheets were formed into tubes which were enclosed in an airtight vessel, the diffuser. As the gas, uranium hexafluoride, was pumped through a long series, or cascade, of these tubes it tended to separate, the enriched gas moving up the cascade while the depleted moved down. However, there is so little difference in mass between the hexafluorides of U-238 and U-235 that it was impossible to gain much separation in a single diffusion step. This was why there had to be several thousand successive stages.

[…]

Without question the most serious problem that confronted us throughout was our inability to produce until late 1944 the barrier material which was the heart of the process. This prevented the orderly installation of the production equipment. It meant that before the first unit could be put in operation, some $200 million had been spent on construction and on the purchase of special equipment, and most of this had been done before we knew even that a satisfactory barrier could be made in the quantities we would require. Yet in spite of this major unknown factor, we had to press ahead with the construction of one of the largest industrial plants ever built, comprising over forty acres of floor space.

[…]

The Oak Ridge plant was a first in every sense, and its design, involving many acres of barrier, was based on this small piece less than two square inches in area. Even this practical foundation soon disappeared when it became known that the material used in the first filter could never be employed in the main plant.

[…]

Finally, after warning us that they were so overloaded with war work that he did not see how they could possibly undertake it, he consented to our talking with his chief engineer. We were amazed when, after we had described in some detail the exacting performance specifications, he replied, “Yes, we can do that. We have already manufactured pumps of the same type, but of course of much smaller capacity.” The contract was accepted and perfectly performed.

[…]

In our hotel rooms we talked at some length about another design problem: how to handle a breakdown within a particular unit. In the course of the discussion, I expressed surprise that it was thought to be a problem, since all that was necessary was to cut out the particular unit that had broken down. The difference between the makeup of the gas varied from diffuser to diffuser so slightly as to be un-noticeable and almost unmeasurable, and I asked how the diffusers could ever tell the difference. That casual question immediately suggested the answer. As so often occurs, it was a case of a simple solution occurring immediately to someone who had not been struggling for months with the problem.

To minimize the effects of gas corrosion, it was first proposed that we use solid nickel for the some hundred miles of process piping. K. T. Keller, the head of the Chrysler Corporation, which was to produce the diffusing units, pointed out that our demands in that case would exceed the entire nickel production of the world, and insisted that heavy nickel plating on the inside of the larger pipe, four inches and above, was feasible. To attempt to heavily nickel-plate the interior of the quantity of pipe we needed was an unprecedented undertaking, but it was solved by a small manufacturer in Belleville, New Jersey, the Bart Laboratories. They developed a novel method in which they used the pipe itself as an electroplating tank. The pipe was rotated during the operation in order to obtain a uniform thickness of deposit. Their success eliminated what otherwise would have been a most difficult situation.

[…]

We had to be absolutely sure that in the hundreds of miles of piping the total leakage of air into the system, particularly through the welds, would not exceed that which would enter through a single pinhole. This problem was solved by industrial engineers. By using helium gas with an improved mass spectrometer, we were able to detect all leaks before the individual piping assembly was installed, and because we could not permit any leakage, no matter how slight, we could not tolerate normal commercial shop welding of the pipe connections, so special welding techniques had to be developed.

[…]

The cleaning and conditioning of equipment prior to installation was vital and the closest practical approach was made to surgical conditions. This involved the complete removal of dirt, grease, oxide, scale, fluxes and other extraneous matter. Any such material, even in small amounts, could very well have caused a complete failure.

The cleaning methods were based on procedures developed by the Chrysler Corporation. The individual steps were not too unusual in industrial practice, but the combination of all of them, their rigorousness and their application to the thousands of pieces of equipment were unheard of.

[…]

All workers changed into clean outer clothing from head to foot upon entering a restricted building.

[…]

Everything possible was done to eliminate dirt and dust. Vacuum cleaners were used instead of brooms, and dust mops were used in order to avoid raising dust by dry sweeping.

The Russians want to increase the zone of contested airspace

Thursday, November 20th, 2025

The third function Russian fighters are optimized for, escort and interdiction, is carried out by a range of aircraft, from the Su-30SM and MIG-31BM to the Su-35S, and will likely involve the Su-57 in the future:

In these missions, Russian aircraft fly beyond the protection of friendly air defences. They are also tasked with trying to disrupt the penetration of Russian airspace by NATO very-low observable (VLO) aircraft. As a result, these mission sets are also those where the gaps between Russian and NATO aircraft are most problematic for the VKS. Conceptually, the Russians want to increase the zone of contested airspace. By expanding the launch points for aero-ballistic missiles, such as the Kinzhal, and low-signature cruise missiles, such as the Kh-69, they hope to reduce NATO’s comfort zone. Because aircraft are exposed during these missions, it is critical for them to reduce the radar cross-section (detectability) of the aircraft. It is important to note that demonstrating an ability to have a reduced radar cross-section airframe — even if not a VLO one — allows Russia to suggest to the world that it can keep up with evolving technological trends. While the Russians therefore use a variety of aircraft in this mission set, it is the future procurement of the Su-57 that will be critical to Russia’s ability to credibly undertake this mission.

While the inherent flexible nature of airpower means that Russia can employ combat aircraft in a wider set of roles — as it attempted in the opening phase of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine — its failures reflected in 2022 how an air force can struggle to operate beyond what it is trained for. Considering, however, the clear tasks for which Russia has optimised its aircraft and aircrew training, it is reasonable to assess that investment within Russian aviation will continue to prioritise Su-34, Su-35S and Su-57 models. The key point is that despite technological inferiority, Russian combat aircraft make a material contribution to Russian combat power, but as Russia’s struggle to build a VLO aircraft demonstrate, the capacity of its aerospace sector to continue to innovate and modernise is fundamental to the capacity of the VKS to expand its opportunities on the battlefield. NATO should therefore be closely concerned with the performance of this sector.

The demands for copper to be used in defense projects far exceeded the national supply

Wednesday, November 19th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesApart from the plutonium plant at Hanford, General Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), the heart of the effort to produce material for a fission bomb was Oak Ridge:

Here were located all our uranium separation plants — the plants designed to separate the easily fissionable Uranium-235 from the more abundant but much less fissionable isotope, Uranium-238. There were a number of ways we thought this could be done, but for practical reasons, to suit our immediate purposes, they were whittled down to two, the electromagnetic process and the gaseous diffusion process.

[…]

We had decided at the start that the several uranium process plants at Oak Ridge should be well separated, so that in case a disaster struck one it would not spread to or contaminate the others. For that reason, the electromagnetic and gaseous diffusion plants were located in valleys some seventeen miles apart. Later, when the thermal diffusion plant was built, we had to disregard this policy and put it quite near the steam-generating plant for the gaseous diffusion process, in order to take advantage of its supply of extra steam.

[…]

It is a physical rather than a chemical process, although a great deal of chemistry is involved in the handling of the material. Basically, electromagnetic separation of isotopes is based on the principle that an ion describes a curved path as it passes through a magnetic field. If the magnetic field is of constant strength, the heavier ions will describe curves of longer radii. Therefore, the various isotopes of an element, since they differ in mass, can be isolated and collected by such an arrangement.

[…]

Rather early in the American effort, Lawrence had proved to his own satisfaction that electromagnetic separation was feasible, but he stood almost alone in this optimism. The method called for a large number of extremely complicated, and as yet undesigned and undeveloped, devices involving high vacuums, high voltages and intense magnetic fields.

[…]

Dr. George T. Felbeck, who was in charge of the gaseous diffusion process for Union Carbide, once said it was like trying to find needles in a haystack while wearing boxing gloves.

[…]

The first estimate for construction alone was for an unrealistic sum of between $ 12 and $ 17 million; soon afterward this was increased to $35 million. These figures were for a plant much smaller than the one we finally built. In its first report to President Roosevelt early in December, 1942, the Military Policy Committee estimated the cost of the entire project as of the order of $ 400 million. At that time we thought that over $100 million would be needed for this process as a whole.

[…]

Exclusive of the value of silver borrowed from the Treasury for electrical conductors, the construction costs, by December 31, 1946, totaled $304 million; research cost $20 million, the engineering $6 million and operation $204 million. The cost of operating power was almost $10 million.

[…]

Originally we had thought we would need a work force of 2,500. This was a sad underestimate, resulting from our inability to anticipate how complex and difficult the job would be and how many units would be needed. Eventually we had over 24,000 on the payroll.

[…]

We could not permit or even consider the unionization of the operating forces of any of the plants turning out U-235 because we simply could not allow anyone over whom we did not have complete control to gain the over-all, detailed knowledge that a union representative would necessarily gain.

[…]

Later, when our needs grew even more pressing, we were unable to find enough pipe fitters to maintain our schedule. Investigation showed that there simply were not enough in the United States to fill the demands. The solution we adopted was to locate a considerable number of pipe fitters, all union members, who had been inducted into the Army. These men were given the opportunity to be furloughed to the inactive reserve on condition that they would accept employment at Hanford as civilians at the going rates of pay.

When they arrived they were kept together as a group so that their output would not be held down by the pressure of any union officials or of the men already working there. In a direct comparison on identical work, they produced about 20 per cent more than the other men. Pressure was brought on them to slow down, but they refused. A typical comment was: “I’m not working as hard as I did in the Army, nobody’s shooting at me, I’m being paid a lot more and, what’s more important, I’ve a lot of friends in my old outfit that I hope to see come back alive.” As time went on, the other men were apparently shamed into greater effort, with the result that their output went up about 10 per cent.

[…]

On my next visit to Oak Ridge I talked for five or ten minutes to some two thousand of these men. I was not introduced by name but merely as the general in charge of the work for the War Department. The reason for this was to avoid drawing attention to me personally; this was our policy throughout the project until security no longer required it. (My wife once commented that I was undoubtedly the most anonymous major general in the history of the United States Army.)

As simply as possible, I told the group that, as the officer in charge, I could state positively, both officially and personally, that their work was of extreme importance to the war effort, and that my views were a true reflection of those of the Chief of Staff, General Marshall, of Secretary of War Stimson and of President Roosevelt. I added that they could see for themselves how important it was from the terrific effort we were making, our obviously enormous expenditures in money and labor, and our evident ability to obtain materials that were in critically short supply. I said nothing about what we were working on or our hope that its success would quite possibly end the war. There was no flowery oratory; I would have been incapable of it, and it certainly would not have appealed to the audience.

Creedon estimated that after this meeting the efficiency of his construction operations improved by as much as 15 to 20 per cent. I never quite believed this, but the progress reports did indicate an increase of well over 10 per cent. This was far beyond anything I had anticipated; indeed, I would have been pleased with any improvement at all.

[…]

Although we were certain sabotage was not involved [in the “snag” with the magnets on the “race track”], in our detailed review of the situation we found that it would be possible for a saboteur, who would have to be an employee on one particular assignment, to throw iron filings into a feed opening in the oil circulation system and thus put an entire section of track out of action. Steps were taken at once to station counterintelligence agents on and around these spots.

One difficulty, which was unforeseen, because we lacked experience with magnets of such enormous power, was that the magnetic forces moved the intervening tanks, which weighed some fourteen tons each, out of position by as much as three inches. This put a great strain on all the piping connected to them. The problem was solved by securely welding the tanks into place, using heavy steel tie straps. Once that was done, the tanks stayed where they belonged.

[…]

Other substances that had previously had very limited application were needed in staggering quantities. For example, each alpha track used four thousand gallons of liquid nitrogen every week.

One incident that delayed production on a bin in an alpha track for several days involved a mouse. In some unknown way, he got into the vacuum system, where his presence prevented the bin from reaching the necessary high vacuum. After several days of trouble-shooting failed to reveal the source of the trouble, the run was terminated and the bin opened. The remains of the mouse, a bit of fur and a tail, disclosed what had caused the trouble, but no one ever learned how he got into the system in the first place.

More serious in effect was the suicidal action of a bird which perched on an outside wire in such a way as to short the electrical system. We had to shut down an entire building, and, because of the nature of the process, it was several days before operations again became normal.

[…]

Waste such as piping, scrap cloth, filter cloths, papers, rubber gloves, clothing and the like had to be carefully saved in order to recover the small concentrations of uranium, particularly of Uranium-235.

I don’t know if you caught that passage about the costs: “Exclusive of the value of silver borrowed from the Treasury for electrical conductors, the construction costs, by December 31, 1946, totaled $304 million; research cost $20 million, the engineering $6 million and operation $204 million. The cost of operating power was almost $10 million.”

Exclusive of the value of silver borrowed from the Treasury for electrical conductors?

Preliminary design calculations on the Y-12 electromagnetic plant in the summer of 1942 had indicated that enormous quantities of conductor material would be required. Because the demands for copper to be used in defense projects far exceeded the national supply, the Administration had decided that the need for copper should be reduced by substituting for it silver borrowed from the Treasury Department.

Colonel Marshall thereupon called on the Under Secretary of the Treasury, Daniel Bell. Mr. Bell said that he might be able to make available some 47,000 tons of free silver, together with 39,000 tons more which could be released from the backup of silver certificates, if Congress authorized its use through appropriate legislation. At one point early in the negotiations, Nichols, acting for Marshall, said that they would need between five and ten thousand tons of silver. This led to the icy reply: “Colonel, in the Treasury we do not speak of tons of silver; our unit is the Troy ounce.”

Under the terms of the final agreement, the silver required by the project was to be withdrawn from the West Point Depository. Six months after the end of the war an equal amount of silver would be returned to the Treasury. It was further agreed that no information would be given to the press on the removal of the silver, and that the Treasury would continue to carry it on their daily balance sheets. Our relations with the Treasury were most cordial, and Mr. Bell and the various officials of the Mint and the Assay Office were always very pleasant and helpful.

Because of the natural reluctance of any private company to accept the responsibilities for safeguarding and accounting for the large amounts of silver that were involved, the MED had to carry out this responsibility with its own forces. This meant organizing separate guard and accountability units, establishing special inspection procedures employing special consultants and arranging to convert the silver into the conductors that we so urgently needed.

We accepted the Treasury’s certification of the bar weights of the silver as we took it over at West Point. Then we delivered it to a processor, who cast the bullion bars into billets which could be extruded into forms more suitable for manufacture into bus bars, magnet coils and similar items. The casting was done by the Defense Plant Corporation and by the U.S. Metal Refinery Company. For the large magnets which used the bulk of the silver, Phelps Dodge Copper Products Company then extruded the billets into strips, which were rolled into coils about the size of a large automobile tire. These coils were shipped to Allis-Chalmers, where they were wound, suitably insulated, around the steel bobbin plate of the magnet casing.

Special MED guards watched the silver at all times while it was being processed, and accompanied every shipment except that of the final magnets from Allis-Chalmers to the Clinton works. We decided that at this point we could achieve adequate security by sending unguarded railway cars over different routes on varying time schedules. The silver coils were encased in large, heavy, steel shells which were completely welded together. Although silver is a valuable commodity, to have made away with any great amount of it during shipment would have been a major task, as our experience in opening one of these shells at Oak Ridge later confirmed. Moreover, the railroads always followed our shipments carefully, and we would have known immediately if any car had been waylaid.

[…]

No recovery operation was undertaken unless the recoverable amounts were expected to be of more value than the cost of recovery. Nevertheless, throughout the entire operation we lost only .035 of one per cent of the more than $300 million worth of silver we had withdrawn from the Treasury.

That’s still $105,000, by the way — and back when that meant something.

The Russians have moved away from both medium-altitude precision bombing and lobbed rocket salvos by aircraft at low altitude

Tuesday, November 18th, 2025

The second function Russian fighters are optimized for is the delivery of precision firepower in support of ground operations, with a particular emphasis on the reduction of enemy strong points rather than interdiction:

The second mission set — delivering firepower in support of ground manoeuvre — follows a well-established Soviet tradition of having an Air Army support each operational direction to provide additional firepower. The approach, however, has had to change due to an evolving threat environment. Soviet concepts of air operations, from the Il-2 of the Second World War to the Su-25 Frogfoot, emphasised direct attack with guns, rockets and gravity bombs, initially meant to assist with delivering concentrated fire at the point of breakthrough, and thereafter to extend the depth of strikes of Soviet manoeuvre forces, thereby advancing beyond the range of concentrated artillery groups. The growing effectiveness of NATO fighter aircraft, however, pushed the Russians to transition to precision-guided bombing and then to undertake stand-off attacks using glide bombs. These types of attacks allow Russian aircraft to stay well behind the defensive screen of friendly air defences. Hence, Russia has emphasised the delivery of precision bombs with their own inertial and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) guidance, to deliver munitions with a far larger payload than ground-launched munitions suitable for large-scale employment. Such strikes target identified strong points, fighting positions and other targets where a large payload is critical to achieving lethal effect.

During Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russians have moved away from both medium-altitude precision bombing and lobbed rocket salvos by aircraft at low altitude, to instead employ gravity bombs augmented with a glide and guidance kit (UMPK). In 2022, Russia assessed what capabilities would achieve the greatest damage for the lowest price per unit and identified the UMPK fitted to its FAB-500, FAB-1000 and FAB-1500 bombs as the most promising capability against this metric. Primarily dropped from Su-34, glide bombs are now systematically used as part of Russian preparatory fires, destroying defensive positions in advance of Russian ground force operations. Hundreds of glide bomb strikes are recorded each week along the front. The Armed Forces of Ukraine recorded 3,370 UMPK strikes in February 2025, 4,800 in March, over 5,000 in April, 3,100 in June, 3,786 in July and 4,390 in August.8 Production of UMPK kits has risen dramatically, from several thousand in 2023 to 40,000 in 2024, and a production target of 70,000 in 2025.9 The accuracy of these glide bombs has varied over the course of the war, depending on the performance of Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) against Kometa jam-resistant GNSS navigation modules. Degradation in accuracy, however, is temporary as the Russians modify the Kometa-M regularly. With around a 50–70-km stand-off range, VKS aircraft conducting UMPK strikes are hard to intercept.

Because of the copper shortage, the War Production Board suggested aluminum cables

Monday, November 17th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesThey were fortunate that Hanford was served by adequate electric power, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, as Grand Coulee was able to make 20,000 kVA available immediately and could supply their entire power needs by September, 1943:

Within the Hanford site, we had to build over fifty miles of 230,000-volt transmission lines and four step-down substations. Because of the copper shortage, the War Production Board thought that we should use aluminum cables. We encountered considerable difficulty and delay in obtaining any decision from the WPB on this matter and it was not until July, 1943, that procurement could begin. Then only the most vigorous expediting enabled du Pont to obtain the material in time to meet its construction schedules.

Aluminum wiring became popular in the 1960s and 1970s when copper prices soared.

Pros of aluminum wire

Lighter weight. Aluminum is a lightweight material that’s very flexible. Installs are often faster since wire pulls are much quicker in long runs.

Less expensive per pound. Aluminum is considerably less expensive than copper, which makes it more desirable to use in large projects where runs span long distances.

Cons of aluminum wire

Less longevity. Prone to cracking and failure when subject to vibration. Aluminum is also more subject to corrosion than copper, meaning its useful life can be shorter as it becomes brittle and subject to breakage.

Difficult to solder. Aluminum is difficult to solder, limiting its flexibility. Oxidation on aluminum often inhibits soldering.

Larger size. Because aluminum conductors are larger than copper conductors, larger raceways are required (and additional costs).

Potential dangers when use incorrectly. When aluminum is properly installed, it is safe. When it is installed incorrectly, there is a potential risks for fire because expansion and contraction cycles have a larger impact on aluminum and can loosen connections. Normal inspections should be performed.

Terminal points. Aluminum requires an anti-oxidation compound at each terminal point because it is susceptible to oxidation. Oxidation occurs when it comes into contact with moisture and dissimilar metals.

Russian fighters are optimized to perform three functions

Sunday, November 16th, 2025

Russian fighters are optimized to perform three functions:.

The first is maintaining medium- to high-altitude combat air patrols for defensive counter-air (DCA) operations. The second is the delivery of precision firepower in support of ground operations, with a particular emphasis on the reduction of enemy strong points rather than interdiction. Third, Russian fighters have been tasked with escorting bombers or naval vessels and conducting periodic intercepts beyond Russia’s borders.

The first mission set of DCA operations grew out of Soviet anxieties as to the paucity of the country’s radar coverage. From the 1970s, Soviet planners came to acknowledge that they were unlikely to keep pace with NATO airpower in a symmetrical competition. As a result, the Soviet Union prioritised the maturation of its air defences as a means of asymmetrically countering NATO airpower. A major limitation for ground-based radars, however, was their horizon, and the resulting possibility for NATO air forces or cruise missiles to fly at a low altitude to approach defended sites.

In turn, Soviet planners, and later the VKS, appreciated that their A-50 airborne early warning aircraft, their MiG-25 and MiG-31 interceptor patrols – perched at medium to high altitude over friendly air space – could use their radar to detect NATO aircraft approaching frontline areas at low altitude. In addition, the MiG-25 and MiG-31 interceptors could take advantage of launching R-33 missiles from a high altitude to outrange many NATO air-to-air missiles. Even if the target would have had sufficient time to ‘turn cold’, away from the missile, and thereby avoid being hit, this would have still defeated the low-altitude approach into Russian air space. Conversely, were the NATO aircraft to approach at a higher altitude to push back the Russian Combat Air Patrol (CAP), they would be well within the radar coverage of Russian ground-based air defence. The significance of this defensive mission expanded further as the Soviet Union, and later Russia, assessed NATO’s growing stocks of precision air-launched cruise missiles. Here, interdiction from the air was seen as essential by Russia, especially considering the size of Russian territory and the corresponding difficulty of tracking low-flying targets from all possible approaches.

Russia has notably had significant success in its use of the Su-35S to provide DCA-CAPs during its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has largely deterred Ukraine from using aircraft at any significant scale near the frontline, other than when shaping operations create limited windows of opportunity, or when employing stand-off weapons. The Russians have also inflicted a steady rate of air-to-air kills against the Ukrainian Air Force, including at significant range. The R-37M air-to-air missile, in particular, has been used to destroy several Ukrainian aircraft at long range, with one kill recorded at 177 km. This is significantly beyond the engagement range of most NATO air-to-air munitions, although the success of these engagements was heavily determined by Ukraine’s lack of effective radar warning receivers. The Russians have also significantly improved the performance and utility of their aircraft during the war, with a particular emphasis on using synthetic aperture radar imagery for targeting and battle damage assessment and improved data passing between the Su-35S and Russian air defence and ground-based fires.

All design was governed by three rules

Saturday, November 15th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesThe original plutonium-production piles in Hanford, Washington, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, were going to be helium cooled:

A major consideration in dropping the helium-cooled pile was the problem of designing and maintaining the necessary pressure-sustaining enclosure for the pile. Among other difficulties was that of loading and unloading such a unit under pressure. When it developed that the water-cooled pile would be easier and cheaper to design and build, all work on the helium method was stopped.

[…]

Later, after we had decided on water-cooling, we discovered that not only was it necessary to have large quantities of cold water, but that its purity was of the utmost importance. We were just lucky that the Columbia River water did not contain dissolved chemicals in sufficient amounts to necessitate more than normal treatment.

[…]

I was discussing the advisability of this with G. M. Read of du Pont, one night at Hanford, when Dr. Hilberry came into the room. I asked him for his views, and he replied that he did not think we would need the deionizing plant, but if we did, we could not do without it. I turned to Read and said, “Go ahead and build it.” Hilberry then asked what it would cost and I told him that it would be somewhere between six and ten million dollars. He replied, “I’m glad I didn’t know that when I gave my opinion.” Such quick decisions were not too frequent and they were always preceded by as much research, study and thought as could be devoted to them without delaying the completion of the project. Nevertheless, there were many decisions that had to be made when the unknown factors far outweighed the known. We built only the one deionizing plant and fortunately never found any need for it, for had it proved necessary, we would have had to build two more in a hurry, and would have lost considerable production while they were under construction.

[…]

Shortly after the Hanford site was selected, I had talked to Robins, who had built the fish ladders and elevators at the Bonneville Dam, and outlined the measures we were taking to protect the salmon in the Columbia River. He made a lasting impression on me at that time when he said, “Whatever you may accomplish, you will incur the everlasting enmity of the entire Northwest if you harm a single scale on a single salmon.” As it turned out, we did not.

The concrete side walls of the retention basins were designed to extend high enough above the ground to prevent anyone within a critical distance from being exposed to radiation. To avoid any turbulence in the river, the discharge lines were brought into the main stream at an angle to provide for a converging flow, and, to prevent fish from swimming up the discharge pipe, a minimum velocity of over twenty miles per hour was planned. In addition, all effluent was monitored continuously by instruments to make certain that the radioactivity was at all times within entirely safe limits.

[…]

Each pile unit was made of carefully machined, very pure graphite blocks with built-in aluminum tubes which were charged or loaded with uranium in the form of small cylinders or slugs. Since the piles were water-cooled, we were greatly concerned about the effects of corrosion, for it was estimated that the failure of only a small percentage of the tubes could cause the complete failure of the pile.

All design was governed by three rules: 1, safety first against both known and unknown hazards; 2, certainty of operation—every possible chance of failure was guarded against; and 3, the utmost saving of time in achieving full production. The complications were many, for many pieces of equipment weighing as much as 250,000 pounds each had to be assembled with tolerances more suitable for high-grade watchmaking. It was through the assistance and the strength of the industrial companies of America that du Pont was able to solve the hundreds of difficult design and material problems that had to be mastered.

[…]

We also encountered an extremely difficult problem in the welding of the steel plates surrounding the piles. This work had to be almost perfect. An average superior job would not do. It took months to perfect the techniques required. We created a special super-classification of welders with premium pay. To hold this classification, a welder was required to take special training. He then had to take practical examinations at regular intervals to make certain that the quality of his work would remain up to what we needed.

[…]

In order to insure an adequate water supply for each pile, completely independent water facilities were provided, each with duplicate lines. At the same time, all individual units were cross-connected. Arrangements were made for driving the water pumps by either electric motors or steam turbines, so that in case of a power failure from either source, a safe amount of water would still be provided. In addition, there were emergency elevated tanks with automatic cut-ins, in case the normal supply failed.

[…]

The piles themselves were surrounded by heavy shields of steel, pressed wood and concrete, to protect the operators from the extreme radioactivity that accompanies the formation of plutonium. The energy of this radiation is equivalent to that of hundreds of tons of radium.

[…]

Each plant was a continuous concrete structure about eight hundred feet long, in which there were individual cells containing the various parts involved in the process equipment. To provide protection from the intense radioactivity, the cells were surrounded by concrete walls seven feet thick and were covered by six feet of concrete.

In use, the equipment would become highly radioactive and its maintenance and repair would be difficult, if not impossible, except by remote control. Consequently, periscopes and other special mechanisms were incorporated into the plant design; all operations could thus be carried out in complete safety from behind the heavy concrete walls. The need for shielding and the possibility of having to replace parts by indirect means required unusually close tolerances, both in fabrication and in installation. This was true even for such items as the special railroad cars that moved the irradiated uranium between the piles and the separation plants. The tracks over which these cars moved were built with extreme care so as to minimize the chances of an accident. Under no circumstances could we plan on human beings directly repairing highly radioactive equipment.

After being discharged from the reactors, the uranium slugs were kept under water continuously, then sent on the specially designed railroad cars to an isolated storage area. There they were immersed in water until their radioactivity had decreased enough to permit the separation of their plutonium content by chemical treatment.

Following the removal of the plutonium the residues were still highly radioactive. They still had to be handled by remote control.

[…]

Experience gained at the Clinton laboratories indicated that the danger to anyone outside the immediate operating area would be much less than we had originally feared, but that the danger from the toxicity of the final product was considerably greater.

[…]

Those body cells which multiply rapidly, such as bone marrow, are most easily affected by gamma radiation, while the slower-growing cells are relatively unaffected.

[…]

The National Advisory Committee on X-Ray and Radium Protection had established a tolerance dose for gamma rays at one-tenth of one roentgen per day. Because this was not definitely known to be safe, the tolerance dose at Hanford was set at one-hundredth of a roentgen per day. This dose could be absorbed in a short period of time, or over an entire day, so long as it was not exceeded within a period of twenty-four hours. It was calculated that one foot of lead, seven feet of concrete or fifteen feet of water would provide adequate protection from the maximum radioactivity to be expected during the operation of one of our reactors.

[…]

In addition to all the other precautions, du Pont designed a control system for the piles that we thought would be safe no matter what happened. It consisted of three distinct elements: first, the control rods could be moved either automatically or manually into the side of the pile; second, safety rods were suspended above the pile so that, in an emergency, they could be instantaneously released; and third, as a last resort, arrangements were made to flood the pile with moderating chemicals. This last device was designed for remote operation from a shielded control room. If this safety device had to be employed, the pile would no longer be usable.

The Bataclan attack started with 1,200 rounds of AK fire, followed by a half-hour of deliberate torture

Friday, November 14th, 2025

I recently stumbled across a post on X marking 10 years since the Bataclan massacre, and it ended with some unsettling details:

Victims were castrated, raped, disembowelled and tortured before execution. French authorities suppressed this fact for ‘social cohesion’.

Grok suggests that much of this is documented, but any rapes are unconfirmed:

Yes, the Bataclan theater attack during the November 13, 2015, Paris attacks involved elements of torture and mutilation, according to multiple eyewitness testimonies, official French parliamentary inquiries, and survivor accounts. Rape allegations have been reported but remain more contested, with some claims debunked or unconfirmed by official investigations.

[…]

French Parliamentary Inquiry (2016): A commission led by MP Georges Fenech interviewed over 100 witnesses. The final report (published July 2016) confirmed “acts of torture and barbarism,” including:

  • Castration and genital mutilation.
  • Eye gouging.
  • Evisceration (slitting open abdomens).

These acts were described as deliberate, not just killings via gunfire/explosives. The report noted that some victims’ bodies showed knife wounds inconsistent with mere execution.

The Bataclan attack started with 1,200 rounds of AK fire, followed by a half-hour of deliberate torture.

The Bataclan attack doesn’t get its own Wikipedia entry, by the way. It’s just one of the November 2015 Paris attacks.

Addendum: With a fresh context window and a more carefully worded prompt, Grok offers the opposite point of view:

The weight of evidence—particularly forensic reports, the absence of direct witnesses among hundreds of survivors, and consistent trial testimonies—indicates no involvement of deliberate rape, torture, or mutilation beyond the mass shootings and explosions. The 2016 claims appear to stem from shock, misinterpretation of blast injuries, and rumor amplification amid grief (e.g., post-Nice attack in 2016). While the attack was barbaric, official accounts portray it as rapid, indiscriminate slaughter rather than prolonged sadism. For deeper reading, the French parliamentary inquiry transcripts and 2022 trial records provide primary sources.

AI is remarkably good at mischaracterizing and hallucinating evidence it collates across sources.

Its climate was excellent, it was well isolated, and had the additional advantage of being far inland

Thursday, November 13th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesOnce Oppenheimer’s appointment was settled, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, they had to pick out a location for Project Y:

We needed good transportation, by air and rail, adequate water, a reasonable availability of labor, a temperate climate, to permit year-round construction and out-of-doors experimental work, and all the other things that make for an efficient operation. As before, we sought an isolated area so that near-by communities would not be adversely affected by any unforeseen results from our activities. Yet this installation would be different, because here we were faced with the necessity of importing a group of highly talented specialists, some of whom would be prima donnas, and of keeping them satisfied with their working and living conditions.

[…]

One would lie somewhere along the Santa Fe Railroad, in New Mexico or Arizona, while the other would be in California. The Navy was already interested in the most promising California site, which did not have suitable living conditions from our point of view, and which would have been extremely expensive to develop adequately. While shielded by surrounding mountains against the chance of an accidental explosion, the teeming millions of Los Angeles County were too near for us to maintain the security we deemed necessary.

[…]

I was also certain that it would be extremely difficult and unpleasant to try to keep our scientific personnel from mixing socially with the faculty of the California Institute of Technology. Inevitably, we would have had security breaches, and there would have been just too many people knowing what we were trying to do.

[…]

After Oppenheimer and I had gone over the possibilities at some length, we agreed that there seemed to be nothing that suited our purposes as well as the general vicinity of Albuquerque. There was good rail service between that city and Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington, and all TWA flights to the Coast stopped there. Its climate was excellent, it was well isolated, and had the additional advantage of being far inland, which appealed to me because of the ever-present threat of Japanese interference along the Coast.

Because a New Mexico National Guard regiment had been captured in the Philippines we could count on a population and a state government intensely interested in furthering the war effort. The support we received was superb.

Oppenheimer owned a ranch in the near-by Sangre de Cristo Range, so we could draw upon a firsthand source of information on the general character of the country in judging whether our scientific people might find working there to their liking.

[…]

The only major problem left was whether the school’s owners would object to its being taken over. It was a private school with students from all over the country and, had they chosen to do so, its owners could have made considerable trouble for us, not so much by making us take the condemnation proceedings into court as by causing too many people to talk about what we were doing. When the initial overtures were made to them, I was most relieved to find that they were anxious to get rid of the school, for they had been experiencing great difficulty in obtaining suitable instructors since America had entered the war, and were very happy indeed to sell out to us and close down for the duration — and, as it turned out, forever.

He had had almost no administrative experience of any kind, and he was not a Nobel Prize winner

Tuesday, November 11th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesIn addition to his other work, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, Arthur Compton had been assigned over-all responsibility for the physics of bomb development:

As a first step in June, 1942, he had appointed Dr. J. Robert Oppenheimer to take charge of this particular phase of the project. Oppenheimer was then at the University of California at Berkeley. He began work on the problem with a small group of theoretical physicists.

[…]

Adding to my cause for doubt, no one with whom I talked showed any great enthusiasm about Oppenheimer as a possible director of the project.

My own feeling was that he was well qualified to handle the theoretical aspects of the work, but how he would do on the practical experimentation, or how he would handle the administrative responsibilities, I had no idea.

[…]

Of the men within our organization I had no doubt that Ernest Lawrence could handle it. He was an outstanding experimental physicist, and this was a job for an experimental physicist. However, he could not be spared from his work on the electromagnetic process; in fact, without him we would have had to drop it, for it was far too difficult and complex for anyone else. I knew of no one then and I know of no one now, besides Ernest Lawrence, who could unquestionably have carried that development through to a successful conclusion.

[…]

Oppenheimer had two major disadvantages — he had had almost no administrative experience of any kind, and he was not a Nobel Prize winner. Because of the latter lack, he did not then have the prestige among his fellow scientists that I would have liked the project leader to possess. The heads of our three major laboratories — Lawrence at Berkeley, Urey at Columbia, and Compton at Chicago — were all Nobel Prize winners, and Compton had several Nobel Prize winners working under him. There was a strong feeling among most of the scientific people with whom I discussed this matter that the head of Project Y should also be one.

[…]

His background included much that was not to our liking by any means. The security organization, which was not yet under my complete control, was unwilling to clear him because of certain of his associations, particularly in the past. I was thoroughly familiar with everything that had been reported about Oppenheimer. As always in security matters of such importance, I had read all the available original evidence; I did not depend upon the conclusions of the security officers.

Finally, because I felt that his potential value outweighed any security risk, and to remove the matter from further discussion, I personally wrote and signed the following instructions to the District Engineer on July 20, 1943:

In accordance with my verbal directions of July 15, it is desired that clearance be issued for the employment of Julius Robert Oppenheimer without delay, irrespective of the information which you have concerning Mr. Oppenheimer. He is absolutely essential to the project.

Ever-present in our thinking was the sad example of the luminous watch-dial painters of World War I

Sunday, November 9th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesIt was understood that all du Pont’s work would be based on technical information to be furnished by the Metallurgical Laboratory, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, and that the government assumed all responsibility for the results of the endeavor, as well as for any damages that might be incurred in the course of the work:

This last provision was necessary because of the nature of the entirely unpredictable and unprecedented hazards involved.

Normal insurance coverage was impossible because of the need to maintain security. While we could have disclosed the normal risks involved to a single insurance representative, there would have been little point in it, for reinsurance on large risks requires that adequate knowledge be in the hands of many groups, which would seriously have endangered our security. Moreover, the unusual hazards were such that no group of insurance companies could possibly have written the coverage, even after complete disclosure. First, no one had any reasonable idea of what the hazards might be or the likelihood of their occurring. Second, no one could predict the duration of the effects of the hazard, or, in many instances, even when the effects might first appear. Third, no one could possibly predict the extent of the damage if a major catastrophe occurred.

For all these hazards the government assumed full responsibility. To facilitate the handling of claims not resulting from a major catastrophe a special fund was established. This fund was placed under the control of du Pont so that it could continue to be available for many years. All claims were to be approved by the government before payment.

Ever-present in our thinking was the sad example of the luminous watch-dial painters of World War I. Here the effects did not become apparent for many years. The delayed reaction to excessive radiation also hit many of the original researchers and users of X-rays. How could we be certain that radiation exposure in our installations might not have similar effects despite all our efforts to prevent them?

[…]

Mr. Carpenter said that du Pont did not want any fee or profit of any kind for this work, and wanted furthermore to be certain that the company would receive no patent rights. A new letter of intent incorporating provisions to this effect was prepared and was immediately accepted.

[…]

At du Pont’s request, Dr. Bush forwarded a letter to the President outlining the circumstances surrounding the assumption by the United States of all responsibility for the unusual hazards involved in this work. Mr. Roosevelt initialed his approval on the letter and a photostatic copy of it was given du Pont.

[…]

We encountered one other snag in making sure that, though du Pont was doing the job without profit, it would not be subject to any direct financial losses. For purely legal reasons, provision was made for a fee of one dollar.

Although the expected duration of the contract was stated, as is usual, soon after V-J Day du Pont was paid the entire fee of one dollar. This resulted in a disallowance by government auditors, since the entire time of the contract had not run out. Consequently, du Pont was asked to return thirty-three cents to the United States. Fortunately, the officers of du Pont had retained their sense of humor throughout their many years of association with the government, and were able to derive considerable amusement from this ruling.

He was invited by Compton on the ground that he was the youngest and would be able to talk about it for the most years

Friday, November 7th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. Groves The original plan for the first experimental test pile had been to place it in the Argonne Forest, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, some fifteen miles out of Chicago, where special facilities were being built to accommodate the pile and its accompanying laboratories:

The already insufficient time available for this construction was cut even further by some labor difficulties which, while not particularly serious, led to delays.

In the meantime, work had begun on a small pile under the West Stands of Stagg Field at the University of Chicago. This pile was to be used to perform exponential experiments to determine the feasibility of the larger test pile. An exponential experiment, as its name indicates, is one from which, using measurements of the results obtained under varying conditions, the results to be expected under vastly different conditions can be calculated. When the supply of pure graphite necessary for the construction of a self-sustaining pile became available somewhat sooner than had been anticipated, Compton raised the question: “Why wait for Argonne?”

There was no reason to wait, except for our uncertainty about whether the planned experiment might not prove hazardous to the surrounding community. If the pile should explode, no one knew just how far the danger would extend. Stagg Field lies in the heart of a populous area, while the Argonne site was well isolated. Because of this, I had serious misgivings about the wisdom of Compton’s suggestion. I went over the situation with him, and told him of my feelings, but I did not interfere with his plans, nor did I display outwardly my concern by being present during the initial test. I learned then that nothing is harder for the man carrying the ultimate responsibility, in this case myself, than to sit back and appear calm and confident while all his hopes can easily be destroyed in a moment by some unexpected event over which he has no direct control.

[…]

Although the committee was in the Chicago laboratories on December 2, 1942, when the Fermi experimental atomic pile was first placed in operation, the only committee member to witness the actual demonstration was Greenewalt. He was invited by Compton on the ground that he was the youngest and would be able to talk about it for the most years.

[…]

“The Italian navigator [Fermi] has just landed in the new world. The natives are friendly.”

The December 2 test proved that a controlled chain reaction could be achieved, but it gave no assurance that it could be used to produce plutonium on a large scale. Neither did it give us any assurance that a bomb using plutonium or U-235 would explode. In the reactor the chain reaction was based on slow neutrons, i.e., ones slowed down by graphite or other means. In the bomb, the neutrons would be fast, for because of technical limitations there could be no moderators. Nevertheless, the committee, basing its opinion on what it had seen and heard during its inspections, reported favorably on the plutonium process.

[…]

In his letter, Compton was quite positive. He stated that the production of plutonium following the procedure then in hand was feasible; that there was a 99 per cent probability that it would be successful; that the probability of a successful bomb was 90 per cent; and that the time schedule, assuming continued full support, would see delivery of the first bomb in 1944 and a production rate of one bomb per month in 1945. This was by far the most optimistic estimate that I ever received prior to the explosion of the first bomb some thirty months later; and it was not at all justified by the existing knowledge.

It had taken them many years to get nylon into mass production; yet the nylon process was simple compared to what we were asking of them

Wednesday, November 5th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. Groves After he had studied all the possibilities, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, he concluded that only one firm was capable of handling all three phases of the plutonium effort, and that firm was du Pont:

When I broached the subject to Arthur Compton, he agreed at once, saying that he knew Stone and Webster were overburdened and were way out of their field of experience, and that it would be a great relief to have du Pont in the picture. However, he warned me that we would encounter opposition, some of it quite strong and quite influential, from some of the people in his laboratory.

He told me that in the previous June he had assembled his staff and proposed bringing in an industrial firm to take over responsibility for the production phase of the plutonium project. The suggestion had resulted in a near rebellion, particularly among those whose entire experience had been in academic institutions. They simply did not comprehend the immensity of the engineering, construction and operating problems that had to be overcome. Whenever attempts were made to explain them, they brushed them aside as inconsequential. After the furor had subsided, Compton announced that he expected to go ahead with his idea.

He said that while his position had been accepted then, he had no doubt that there would be many objections, voiced and unvoiced, and that the selection of du Pont — the very symbol of large industry — would be particularly opposed. He went on to assure me that personally he was very much in favor of my proposal and, moreover, that he felt that du Pont was by far the best choice that could be made.

On the other hand, a number of his scientific people, particularly those who had been trained in Europe, where scientific and engineering education were more closely linked than in this country, had the idea that all design and engineering for the project should be accomplished under their personal direction. Some even went so far as to say that they could also supervise the construction.

When I visited the laboratory on October 5 and again on October 15, I was told by several different persons that if I would provide them with from fifty to one hundred junior engineers and draftsmen, they would then themselves design and construct the plutonium plant, rapidly and without delay. They added that the plant could then be turned over to a private company for operation, or possibly be run under the Civil Service.

The absurdity of such a proposal is apparent when it is remembered that this was the plant where our construction forces reached a peak of forty-five thousand and was so difficult an undertaking as to strain even the great resources of du Pont, with the full power of, and considerable aid from, the government and much of America’s industry behind it.

[…]

The urgency of the project did not allow time for us to conduct any detailed security checks in advance of negotiations; instead, we relied upon the discretion and patriotism of American industry. We considered this a good risk and we were never disappointed.

[…]

I said that there were three basic military considerations involved in our work. First, the Axis Powers could very easily soon be in a position to produce either plutonium or U-235, or both. There was no evidence to indicate that they were not striving to do so; therefore we had to assume that they were. To have concluded otherwise would have been foolhardy. Second, there was no known defense against the military use of nuclear weapons except the fear of their counter-employment. Third, if we were successful in time, we would shorten the war and thus save tens of thousands of American casualties. (I have always believed it was for these reasons, and particularly the last, that Carpenter and his colleagues on the du Pont Executive Committee agreed to undertake the work in spite of all the hazards it entailed for their company.)

[…]

They pointed out that even in one of their own fields of specialization they would not attempt to design a large-scale plant without the necessary data that could be accumulated only by a long period of laboratory research, followed by semi-works operation: for example, it had taken them many years to get nylon into mass production; yet the nylon process was simple compared to what we were asking of them.

[…]

I should make it clear that reactor theory at this time did not overlook the possibility that once a chain reaction was started, it could, under some conditions, get out of control and increase progressively to the point where the reactor would explode. If highly radioactive materials were blown into the atmosphere and spread by winds over a wide area, the results could be catastrophic. We knew, too, that in the separation of the plutonium we might release into the atmosphere radioactive and other highly toxic fumes which would constitute a distinct hazard for operating personnel. It was not surprising, therefore, that du Pont should entertain grave doubts about the desirability of joining us in our work.

[…]

As the directors entered the room at their next Board meeting, they were asked not to look at the faced-down papers on the table in front of them. Carpenter explained that the Executive Committee was recommending that du Pont accept a contract from the government for a project in a previously unexplored field so large and so difficult that it would strain the capacity of the company to the utmost. He added that there were elements of hazard in it that under certain conditions could very well seriously damage if not well-nigh destroy du Pont. He said that the highest officials in the government, as well as those who knew the most about it, considered it to be of the highest military importance. Even its purpose was held in extreme secrecy, although if any Board member wished to he was free to read the faced-down papers before voting. Not a single man, and they were all heavy stockholders, turned them over before voting approval — or afterwards — a true display of real patriotism.

Nothing would be more fatal to success than to try to arrive at a perfect plan before taking any important step

Monday, November 3rd, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. Groves On October 5, 1942, General Groves paid his first visit to the Metallurgical Laboratory at the University of Chicago, as he explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, where he met with Arthur Compton and “about fifteen of his senior men”:

Among them were two other Nobel Prize winners, Enrico Fermi and James Franck, together with the brilliant Hungarian physicists Eugene Wigner and Leo Szilard, and Dr. Norman Hilberry, Compton’s assistant.

[…]

With respect to the amount of fissionable material needed for each bomb, how accurate did they think their estimate was? I expected a reply of “within twenty-five or fifty per cent,” and would not have been greatly surprised at an even greater percentage, but I was horrified when they quite blandly replied that they thought it was correct within a factor of ten.

[…]

My position could well be compared with that of a caterer who is told he must be prepared to serve anywhere between ten and a thousand guests. But after extensive discussion of this point, I concluded that it simply was not possible then to arrive at a more precise answer.

[…]

This uncertainty surrounding the amount of material needed for a bomb plagued us continuously until shortly before the explosion of the Alamogordo test bomb on July 16, 1945. Even after that we could not be sure that Uranium-235 (used in the Hiroshima bomb) would have the same characteristics as plutonium (used in the test and later against Nagasaki), although we knew of no reason why it should be greatly different.

[…]

After the meeting, Compton and I resumed a discussion we had begun earlier with Szilard on how to reduce the number of approaches which were being explored for cooling the pile. Four methods—using helium, air, water and heavy water—were under active study. It was essential that we concentrate on the most promising and more or less abandon work on the others. By the end of the afternoon we settled on helium cooling. But within three months this decision was changed. The design problems early encountered in the comparatively small air-cooled reactor at Clinton indicated that the handling of any gaseous coolant in the much larger Hanford reactors would be very difficult. And as the operation of the Fermi test pite in December had proved that in a properly designed uranium pile water could be used as a coolant, it was adopted for the plutonium reactors we built at Hanford.

I left Chicago feeling that the plutonium process seemed to offer us the greatest chances for success in producing bomb material. Every other process then under consideration depended upon the physical separation of materials having almost infinitesimal differences in their physical properties. Under such circumstances, the design and operation of any industrial processes to accomplish this separation would involve unprecedented difficulties. It was true that the transmutation of uranium by spontaneous chain reaction into usable quantities of plutonium fell entirely outside of existing technical knowledge; yet the rest of the process—the chemical separation of the plutonium from the rest of the material—while extremely difficult and completely unprecedented, did not seem to be impossible.

Up until this time, only infinitesimal quantities of plutonium had been produced, and these by means of the cyclotron, a laboratory method not suitable for production in quantity. And by quantity production of plutonium, I do not mean tons per hour, but rather a few thimblefuls per day. Even by December, 1943, only two milligrams had been produced.

[…]

This was in accord with the general philosophy I had followed throughout the military construction program and to which we adhered consistently in this project; namely, that nothing would be more fatal to success than to try to arrive at a perfect plan before taking any important step.