Not so blinding as New Mexico test because of bright sunlight

Sunday, January 4th, 2026

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. Groves At about 4:30 a.m. the Duty Officer delivered General Groves the detailed hoped-for cable from Farrell, as Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), which had been dispatched after the bomber returned to Tinian. It read:

Following additional information furnished by Parsons, crews, and observers on return to Tinian at 060500Z. Report delayed until information could be assembled at interrogation of crews and observers. Present at interrogation were Spaatz, Giles, Twining, and Davies.

Confirmed neither fighter or flak attack and one tenth cloud cover with large open hole directly over target. High speed camera reports excellent record obtained. Other observing aircraft also anticipates good records although films not yet processed. Reconnaissance aircraft taking post-strike photographs have not yet returned.

Sound—None appreciable observed.

Flash—Not so blinding as New Mexico test because of bright sunlight. First there was a ball of fire changing in a few seconds to purple clouds and flames boiling and swirling upward. Flash observed just after airplane rolled out of turn. All agreed light was intensely bright and white cloud rose faster than New Mexico test, reaching thirty thousand feet in minutes it was one-third greater diameter.

It mushroomed at the top, broke away from column and the column mushroomed again. Cloud was most turbulent. It went at least to forty thousand feet. Flattening across its top at this level. It was observed from combat airplane three hundred sixty-three nautical miles away with airplane at twenty-five thousand feet. Observation was then limited by haze and not curvature of the earth.

Blast—There were two distinct shocks felt in combat airplane similar in intensity to close flak bursts. Entire city except outermost ends of dock areas was covered with a dark grey dust layer which joined the cloud column. It was extremely turbulent with flashes of fire visible in the dust. Estimated diameter of this dust layer is at least three miles. One observer stated it looked as though whole town was being torn apart with columns of dust rising out of valleys approaching the town. Due to dust visual observation of structural damage could not be made.

At no time was there any idea of testing the gun-type bomb

Monday, December 29th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. Groves In late June, as the forces under General MacArthur and Admiral Nimitz approached within bombing range of the Japanese homeland, General Groves realized that they had not been told about the ban on certain cities, as he explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), for at the time it was imposed they had been too far away to make it necessary:

This concern was soon removed, however, for when we brought the matter to the attention of the Joint Chiefs, they hastily reserved our targets from all air attack.

We were fairly sure by now that we would be able to test the Fat Man, the implosion-type bomb, sometime around the middle of July. (At no time was there any idea of testing the gun-type bomb.) Planning for this operation, which carried the code name of Trinity, had begun back in the spring of 1944 when Oppenheimer and I decided that a test might be necessary to make certain that the complex theories behind the implosion bomb were correct, and that it was soundly designed, engineered, manufactured and assembled—in short, that it would work.

We thought then that we might want to explode the first bomb inside a container, so that if a nuclear explosion did not take place or if it was a very small one, we might be able to recover all or much of the precious plutonium. Also, we wanted to prevent its being scattered over a wide area and creating a health hazard that would make it necessary to guard the area against trespassers for many years.

Consequently we ordered from Babcock and Wilcox a heavy steel container, which because of its great size, weight and strength was promptly christened Jumbo. To move it from the manufacturing plant in the East to New Mexico, it had to be loaded onto specially reinforced cars and carefully routed over the railroads. At the nearest railroad stop to the test site it was unloaded onto a specially built trailer with some thirty-six large wheels, and then driven overland about thirty miles to Alamogordo.

But by the time of the test we had decided we would not need to use Jumbo, for we had learned enough to be reasonably certain of a fair-sized nuclear explosion. Even if it were as low as 250 tons, as many of our scientists were predicting, the container would only create additional dangers.

It is interesting to speculate about what would have happened, with the actual explosion of almost twenty thousand tons, if we had used Jumbo. That the heat would have completely evaporated the entire steel casing is doubtful. If it did not, pieces of jagged steel would probably have been hurled for great distances.

The scientist in charge of the test was Dr. K. T. Bainbridge, who had the unusual qualification of being a physicist with undergraduate training in electrical engineering.

[…]

I had ruled out using Los Alamos for the test on grounds of security and also because I doubted if the area could be expanded sufficiently. Later, we decided that we would need a site measuring approximately seventeen by twenty-four miles, that it should be in a generally non-populated area, and that it should be no further from Los Alamos than necessary. I added one special prohibition: that it should have no Indian population at all, for I wanted to avoid the impossible problems that would have been created by Secretary of the Interior Harold L. Ickes, who had jurisdiction over the Bureau of Indian Affairs. His curiosity and insatiable desire to have his own way in every detail would have caused difficulties and we already had too many.

[…]

Air travel has improved considerably since those days. The field we used at Pasadena was very small, and our approach to it was impeded by some high-tension lines at the end of the strip. As he came in, our pilot found himself lined up on the taxiway and quite low. Instead of circling the field, he came in over the wires and then side-slipped, landing with a terrific bounce—both horizontal and vertical. Our landing brought everyone out of the small operations office, including one of my security officers who had missed the plane in San Francisco, and who was waiting to rejoin us in Pasadena. He remarked afterward that, if not the first, at least the second thought that flashed through his mind was: “How am I going to explain the accidental death of Bush, Conant and Groves, without publicity to the project and resulting breaches of security?”

We left the next morning from March Field in Riverside in order to be sure that the predicted Los Angeles fog would not interfere with our taking off.

[…]

The main problem was the weather. We had obtained the very best men that the armed forces had on long-range weather forecasting, and, for a considerable period, they had been making accurate long-range weather predictions for the test site. The only time they were not right was on the one day that counted. The weather that evening was quite blustery and misty, with some rain. Fortunately, the wind seemed to be in the right direction.

We were interested in the weather for a number of reasons: First and foremost, we wanted to avoid as much radioactive fallout2 as possible, particularly over populated areas. This was a matter that had not received any attention until about six months earlier, when one of the Los Alamos scientists, Joseph Hirschfelder, had brought up the possibility that it might be a real problem. For this reason, we felt it would be desirable to explode the bomb when rain was unlikely, since rain would bring down excessive fallout over a small area instead of permitting it to be widely distributed and therefore of little or no consequence. In reaching this decision we could not ignore the old reports that heavy battle cannonading had sometime brought on rain, even though no scientific basis was known for a such phenomenon.

Second, it was extremely important that the wind direction be satisfactory, because we did not want the cloud, if one developed, to pass over any populated areas until its radioactive contents were thoroughly dissipated. It was essential that it not pass over any town too large to be evacuated. The city about which we were most concerned was Amarillo, some three hundred miles away, but there were others large enough to cause us worry. The wind direction had to be correct to within a few degrees.

Third, we wanted suitable flying weather so that we could have observation planes flying over the near-by areas; and finally, we wanted to avoid prior heavy rain or continuous dampness, which might ruin our electrical connections, both for firing the bomb, and for the various instruments.

[…]

I was extremely anxious to have the test carried off on schedule. One reason for this was that I knew the effect that a successful test would have on the issuance and wording of the Potsdam ultimatum. I knew also that every day’s delay in the test might well mean the delay of a day in ending the war; not because we would not be ready with the bombs, for the production of fissionable material would continue at full tilt anyway, but because a delay in issuing the Potsdam ultimatum could result in a delay in the Japanese reaction, with a further delay to the atomic attack on Japan. Obviously, a reasonable time had to be allowed for the Japanese to consider the ultimatum.

From a purely technical point of view, also, it was desirable to avoid a postponement, for the chances of short circuits and a misfire would increase appreciably with every hour that our connections were subjected to excessive moisture.

[…]

It had originally been scheduled for 4 a.m. on July 16. This hour had been fixed with the thought that an explosion at that time would attract the least attention from casual observers in the surrounding area, since almost everyone would be asleep. We expected there would be a tremendous flash of light, but thought it would not be great enough to waken many people who were well removed from the burst. Then, too, we wanted the darkness for our photography.

[…]

As the hour approached, we had to postpone the test—first for an hour and then later for thirty minutes more—so that the explosion was actually three and one half hours behind the original schedule. While the weather did not improve appreciably, neither did it worsen. It was cloudy with light rain and high humidity; very few stars were visible. Every five or ten minutes, Oppenheimer and I would leave the dugout and go outside and discuss the weather. I was devoting myself during this period to shielding Oppenheimer from the excitement swirling about us, so that he could consider the situation as calmly as possible, for the decisions to be taken had to be governed largely by his appraisal of the technical factors involved.

[…]

Everyone was told to lie face down on the ground, with his feet toward the blast, to close his eyes, and to cover his eyes with his hands as the countdown approached zero. As soon as they became aware of the flash they could turn over and sit or stand up, covering their eyes with the smoked glass with which each had been supplied.

[…]

As I lay there, in the final seconds, I thought only of what I would do if, when the countdown got to zero, nothing happened. I was spared this embarrassment, for the blast came promptly with the zero count, at 5: 30 A.M., on July 16, 1945.

My first impression was one of tremendous light, and then as I turned, I saw the now familiar fireball. As Bush, Conant and I sat on the ground looking at this phenomenon, the first reactions of the three of us were expressed in a silent exchange of handclasps. We all arose so that by the time the shock wave arrived we were standing.

I was surprised by its comparative gentleness when it reached us almost fifty seconds later. As I look back on it now, I realize that the shock was very impressive, but the light had been so much greater than any human had previously experienced or even than we had anticipated that we did not shake off the experience quickly.

Unknown to me and I think to everyone, Fermi was prepared to measure the blast by a very simple device. He had a handful of torn paper scraps and, as it came time for the shock wave to approach, I saw him dribbling them from his hand toward the ground. There was no ground wind, so that when the shock wave hit it knocked some of the scraps several feet away. Since he dropped them from a fixed elevation from near his body which he had previously measured, the only measurement he now needed was the horizontal distance that they had traveled. He had already calculated in advance the force of the blast for various distances. So, after measuring the distance on the ground, he promptly announced the strength of the explosion. He was remarkably close to the calculations that were made later from the data accumulated by our complicated instruments.

I had become a bit annoyed with Fermi the evening before, when he suddenly offered to take wagers from his fellow scientists on whether or not the bomb would ignite the atmosphere, and if so, whether it would merely destroy New Mexico or destroy the world. He had also said that after all it wouldn’t make any difference whether the bomb went off or not because it would still have been a well worth-while scientific experiment. For if it did fail to go off, we would have proved that an atomic explosion was not possible. Afterward, I realized that his talk had served to smooth down the frayed nerves and ease the tension of the people at the base camp, and I have always thought that this was his conscious purpose. Certainly, he himself showed no signs of tension that I could see.

[…]

These plans proved utterly impracticable, for no one who had witnessed the test was in a frame of mind to discuss anything. The reaction to success was simply too great. It was not only that we had achieved success with the bomb; but that everyone—scientists, military officers and engineers—realized that we had been personal participants in, and eyewitnesses to, a major milestone in the world’s history and had a sobering appreciation of what the results of our work would be. While the phenomenon that we had just witnessed had been seriously discussed for years, it had always been thought of as a remote possibility—not as an actuality.

[…]

Several days after I got back to Washington, Dr. R. M. Evans, of the du Pont Company, came to see me about some of the operating problems at Hanford. After we had finished and as he was leaving, he turned, his hand on the doorknob, and said, “Oh, by the way, General, everybody in du Pont sends you their congratulations.” I quickly replied, “What are you talking about?” He answered, “It’s the first time we ever heard of the Army’s storing high explosives, pyrotechnics and chemicals in one magazine.” He went on to add that the radio announcement on the Pacific Coast had been teletyped in to Wilmington from Hanford. My only response was: “That was a strange thing for the Army to do, wasn’t it?”

[…]

Mr. Stimson’s diary for Sunday, July 22, 1945, is most enlightening:

Churchill read Groves’ report in full. He told me that he had noticed at the meeting of the Three yesterday that Truman was much fortified by something that had happened, that he had stood up to the Russians in a most emphatic and decisive manner, telling them as to certain demands that they could not have and that the United States was entirely against them. He said, “Now I know what happened to Truman yesterday. I couldn’t understand it. When he got to the meeting after having read this report, he was a changed man. He told the Russians just where they got on and off and generally bossed the whole meeting.” Churchill said he now understood how this pepping up had taken place and he felt the same way.

The Pumpkins began to arrive at the end of June

Saturday, December 27th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesGeneral Groves was highly impressed with Curtis Lemay, as he explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project:

It was very evident that he was a man of outstanding ability. Our discussion lasted about an hour, and we parted with everything understood and with complete confidence in each other. This feeling lasted throughout the operation and into the years since then.

I explained to him the anticipated outcome of our work, describing the probable power of the bombs, their expected delivery dates and probable production rates, and said that we fully expected to drop each bomb as soon as it was ready. I also went into the general organization and state of training of the 509th Group; the responsibilities of the supporting groups from Los Alamos; the factors governing the altitude from which the bomb would have to be dropped, which was approximately the maximum altitude of the B-29; the approximate weights of the two types of bomb; the targets that we had selected; and the type of instructions that would be issued to the field. I made it perfectly clear that the conduct of the operation would be entirely under his control, subject, of course, to any limitations that might be placed upon him by his instructions. Finally, I explained the roles of the two weaponeers, Parsons and Ashworth—the men who would actually arm the bomb—giving him a resume of their particular qualifications.

LeMay asked a few very pertinent questions, and then announced that he would want to carry out the bombing operation using a single unescorted plane. In explaining his reasons for preferring this radical tactic, he pointed out that the Japanese were unlikely to pay any serious attention to a single plane flying at a high altitude, and would probably assume that it was on either a reconnaissance or a weather mission. I replied that I thought his plan was sound, but that this phase of the operation came under his responsibility. I added, however, that some arrangement should be made for the necessary observation planes to be present in the general area at the time the bomb was dropped.

[…]

Because they had been modified to carry the atomic bomb, the B-29’ s of the 509th Group could not easily carry standard conventional bombs. They could, however, deliver bombs having the same shape as the Fat Man, and such a bomb had been developed and produced to provide training and experience to the crews. Known as the Pumpkin, this bomb contained 5,500 pounds of explosives, and was designed for blast effect only, with a proximity fuse that would permit its use for an air burst. Although it was primarily a training device, we had always recognized that it could have tactical uses; now as part of the group’s security cover, we let it leak out on Tinian that its mission was the delivery of Pumpkins in battle. We also hoped that analysis of the results obtained by the use of the Pumpkins might help us to refine the ballistic data for the real bomb.

The Pumpkins began to arrive at the end of June. Reaction to these bombs were mixed. The members of the 509th who, with a few exceptions, still did not know the real reason for their training, were somewhat disappointed that they had spent so much time in practicing to deliver this fairly modest weapon. On the other hand, some members of the other Air Force units based on Tinian, who likewise did not know what the 509th’s real purpose was, became quite enthusiastic about the effectiveness of the Pumpkin’s air bursts over enemy targets and set up a clamor to have more of them made available to their theater.

[…]

As I have explained, a high air burst was necessary for maximum results. It was also dictated by our desire to eliminate, if possible, or in any case to decrease, residual radioactivity on the ground below the burst; to decrease to a negligible degree any harmful fallout downwind; and to diminish to a minimum serious radioactive injuries to the population in the bombed area. We felt that the high burst would confine casualties for the most part to nonradioactive injuries; namely, those due directly and indirectly to the force of the unprecedented explosion.

To be well removed from the point of burst, the bombing plane would have to maneuver as no heavy bomber had ever had to maneuver before. As soon as the bomb was “away,” the plane was to make a sharp diving turn to get as far as possible from the point of explosion. This was one of the reasons why the run was made at the then unprecedented altitude of some thirty thousand feet. The high altitude also greatly reduced the danger of gunfire from enemy airplanes, permitting the removal of the fuselage turrets and all other armament except for the tail guns. This weight reduction appreciably increased the plane’s range and the height at which it could fly.

Studies made at Los Alamos had determined that with a bomb of twenty thousand tons of TNT equivalent, a B-29 plane ten miles away from the burst would be safe from destruction by a factor of two. Under these conditions, the aircraft, which had been designed to withstand a force of four times gravity, would be subjected to a force equivalent to no more than two times gravity. It was calculated that by making a sharp diving turn, the sharpest possible consistent with safety, the B-29 could reach a point at least ten miles from the burst by the time the bomb exploded.

It took years, if not decades and centuries, after their first use for their revolutionary influence upon warfare to be felt

Tuesday, December 23rd, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesThere has never been an improvement in weapons comparable in degree and in sudden impact to the atomic bomb, General Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project):

In the case of other developments, such as explosives, the airplane, the tank, long-range artillery, armor-clad warships, submarines, and even rifles, it took years, if not decades and centuries, after their first use for their revolutionary influence upon warfare to be felt. In the case of the atomic bomb it took only a few hours.

[…]

When I told Arnold there was a chance that we might not be able to fit the bomb into the B-29, no matter how hard we tried, he asked me what I would do then. I said that if the B-29 could not be used, we would have to consider the use of a British plane, the Lancaster, which I was sure the Prime Minister would be glad to make available to us.

This brought from him the characteristic reply that I had hoped and expected to hear: that he wanted an American plane to deliver our bomb, and that the Air Force would make every effort to ensure that we had a B-29 capable of doing the job.

[…]

Fortunately, as time went on, we were able to make changes in the design of both types of bombs, so that it became possible to fit them into a specially modified B-29.

[…]

The effects of General Arnold’s wholehearted co-operation became very evident when elements of the Air Force appeared reluctant to furnish the necessary number of B-29’ s. Their reaction was quite understandable, for these planes were in such short supply that it was impossible to give the crews that were to operate them overseas even the desired minimum of training.

After exploring the situation, Wilson told me that the only way we could get the planes was for me to go see Arnold myself. Even then, in his judgment, we would not get them until shortly before the actual operation.

General Arnold did not hesitate. He fell in with my request almost without discussion, without any evidence of disinclination, and without any suggestion that I might get along with a smaller number. This was typical of all my experiences in dealing with him. He fully realized the importance of the project and never expressed the slightest doubt of our ultimate success.

As I left Arnold’s office to walk down to Wilson’s to tell him how I had made out, he met me in the hall and said that Arnold had just telephoned him. When he added that he was completely surprised and quite impressed by Arnold’s prompt agreement, I replied that I was not the least bit surprised; it was just what I had expected.

Not only did Arnold’s action in this case provide us with the planes we so urgently needed, but it indelibly impressed upon all his staff that MED requests were to be granted without argument.

This stood us in good stead until a few months before our actual operations against the Japanese began, when Parsons reported that he did not think our planes were in the best operating condition, and said they should be replaced by new ones. Investigation showed that he was right, but again Wilson felt it would be impossible to do much about it because of the tremendous demands for B-29’ s in the Pacific Theater.

When I appealed to Arnold, however, his response again was quick and emphatic. He said that in view of the vast national effort that had gone into the Manhattan Project, no slip-up on the part of the Air Force was going to be responsible for a failure. He then asked me how many new planes I needed, and I replied that as a minimum I would need one to carry the bomb. While several more to carry instruments and make observations would be desirable, they were not essential. I made it clear, however, that no matter what else might suffer, we must have one plane that would be in absolutely perfect working condition when we were ready for the final take-off. Immediately Arnold said that he would order fourteen new planes for us, and fourteen more to be placed in reserve to meet emergency needs. He repeated that no matter what else might go wrong, no one would ever be able to say that the Air Force did not do its utmost to support the Manhattan Project. In this, he was entirely correct.

The new lot of B-29’ s was delivered to Wendover Field, Utah, during the spring of 1945. These planes had fuel injection engines, electrically controlled reversible propellers, and were generally much better than their predecessors, particularly from the standpoint of ruggedness.

[…]

Tibbets had been the Operations Officer of the 97th Bombardment Group in the North African and European Theater of Operations, where he had flown the usual number of combat missions, and had then been returned to the United States. Since his return, he had been engaged in testing the B-29 and in formulating the instructions for its use in combat. He was a superb pilot of heavy planes, with years of military flying experience, and was probably as familiar with the B-29 as anyone in the service.

[…]
Insofar as possible the group’s officers should have been men who might reasonably be expected to remain in the regular service after the war. We should have recognized the importance of this but, as far as I know, nobody did. Although this mistake made no difference in the accomplishment of our immediate goal, in the postwar years it has been most unfortunate that we have not had in the regular service as many men as possible who were experienced in the use of atomic bombs in actual war. Indeed, sixteen years after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, only four—Tibbets and Ashworth, a weaponeer, and the two bombardiers, Ferebee and Beahan—remain on active duty.

[…]

The total authorized strength of the 509th Group was set at 225 officers and 1,542 enlisted men. It was a completely self-contained unit, including besides its Heavy Bombardment Squadron, a Troop Carrier Squadron and all other essential supporting units.

[…]

In September, after it became clear that we would use both a gun-assembly bomb (the Little Boy) and an implosion bomb (the Fat Man), 4 we decided to freeze the external shapes of the three models then existent—one Little Boy and two Fat Men. This was to permit completion of the necessary modifications to the B-29 so that the training of the 509th would not be delayed. The first planes were ready in October and were delivered to Colonel Tibbets at the Wendover Army Air Base, which went under the code name of “Kingman” and sometimes “W-47.” The ballistic tests were begun that same month and were continued until August 8, 1945, by which time each of the two models finally adopted had been dropped in combat.

[…]

In December, the 393rd Squadron was sent to Batista Field, Cuba, for two months of special training in long over-water flights. The program also included training in high-altitude visual and radar bombing. On these practice missions, formation flights were habitually avoided and the crews grew accustomed to operating singly. This was not because we anticipated sending unescorted single planes against Japan, but rather because we were not sure that the escort planes would accompany the bomb-carrying plane all the way from its take-off to the target and back; therefore, we wanted it to be fully capable of independent navigation.

This special training proved very fortunate indeed when later General Curtis LeMay adopted the plan of using a single plane for each bombing mission. This placed all navigational responsibility on the navigator of that plane and was completely at variance with the standard Air Force navigational procedures. Normally, bomber missions were flown by massive formations, with the lead plane carrying a thoroughly competent navigator. The navigators in the other planes were not as a rule nearly so experienced. Fortunately, because of our insistence upon a high state of navigational training throughout the 393rd Squadron, the 509th Group was not caught short when LeMay’s proposal was put into effect.

After the 393rd Bombing Squadron returned to Wendover from the Caribbean, its training continued, and the fliers gained much valuable experience in the course of the ballistic testing of dummy bombs similar in dimensions and weight to the atomic bombs that were eventually used. At first the dummies were inert; later some were filled with normal high explosives. They were never, of course, loaded with any fissionable material. Most of our ballistic testing was conducted at a range in the Salton Sea area. Out of these tests came the information we needed to aim the final bombs accurately.

Each drone costs around $50,000

Saturday, December 20th, 2025

A BBC defence correspondent in Kyiv reports on their secret missile factory:

We’re driven blindfolded to a secret location where Ukraine is making one of its latest weapons.

We’re told to turn off our phones — such is the secrecy around the production of Ukraine’s Flamingo cruise missile.

For Ukraine, dispersing and hiding the production of weapons like this is key to survival. Two factories belonging to the company that makes it — Fire Point — have already been hit.

Inside the one we’re visiting we’re told not to film any features such as pillars, windows or ceilings. We’re also asked not to show the faces of workers on the assembly line — where Flamingo missiles are at various stages of completion.

Even under fire, Ukraine is ramping up its arms industry. President Volodymyr Zelensky says the country now produces more than 50% of the weapons it uses on the front line. Almost its entire inventory of long-range weapons is domestically made.

[…]

The head of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, says Ukraine’s long-range strikes have already cost the Russian economy more than $21.5bn this year.

[…]

Of course Russia has been doing the same, and on a greater scale. On average it has been launching around 200 Shahed drones a day; Ukraine’s response has been about half that number.

[…]

Fire Point didn’t even exist before Russia’s full-scale invasion. But the start-up is now producing 200 drones a day. Its FP1 and FP2 drones, each the size of a small aeroplane, have carried out 60% of Ukraine’s long-range strikes. Each drone costs around $50,000 — a third of the price of a Russian Shahed drone. Russia is still producing nearly 3,000 of those a month.

[…]

Until the end of last year, under President Biden, the United States supplied nearly $70bn-worth of military support to Ukraine. That was soon stopped under President Trump — instead he has set up a scheme to allow European Nato to purchase US weapons.

Ukraine still needs outside help, not least with intelligence, targeting and money. But it is trying to be more self-sufficient.

The Russians want to increase the zone of contested airspace

Thursday, November 20th, 2025

The third function Russian fighters are optimized for, escort and interdiction, is carried out by a range of aircraft, from the Su-30SM and MIG-31BM to the Su-35S, and will likely involve the Su-57 in the future:

In these missions, Russian aircraft fly beyond the protection of friendly air defences. They are also tasked with trying to disrupt the penetration of Russian airspace by NATO very-low observable (VLO) aircraft. As a result, these mission sets are also those where the gaps between Russian and NATO aircraft are most problematic for the VKS. Conceptually, the Russians want to increase the zone of contested airspace. By expanding the launch points for aero-ballistic missiles, such as the Kinzhal, and low-signature cruise missiles, such as the Kh-69, they hope to reduce NATO’s comfort zone. Because aircraft are exposed during these missions, it is critical for them to reduce the radar cross-section (detectability) of the aircraft. It is important to note that demonstrating an ability to have a reduced radar cross-section airframe — even if not a VLO one — allows Russia to suggest to the world that it can keep up with evolving technological trends. While the Russians therefore use a variety of aircraft in this mission set, it is the future procurement of the Su-57 that will be critical to Russia’s ability to credibly undertake this mission.

While the inherent flexible nature of airpower means that Russia can employ combat aircraft in a wider set of roles — as it attempted in the opening phase of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine — its failures reflected in 2022 how an air force can struggle to operate beyond what it is trained for. Considering, however, the clear tasks for which Russia has optimised its aircraft and aircrew training, it is reasonable to assess that investment within Russian aviation will continue to prioritise Su-34, Su-35S and Su-57 models. The key point is that despite technological inferiority, Russian combat aircraft make a material contribution to Russian combat power, but as Russia’s struggle to build a VLO aircraft demonstrate, the capacity of its aerospace sector to continue to innovate and modernise is fundamental to the capacity of the VKS to expand its opportunities on the battlefield. NATO should therefore be closely concerned with the performance of this sector.

The Russians have moved away from both medium-altitude precision bombing and lobbed rocket salvos by aircraft at low altitude

Tuesday, November 18th, 2025

The second function Russian fighters are optimized for is the delivery of precision firepower in support of ground operations, with a particular emphasis on the reduction of enemy strong points rather than interdiction:

The second mission set — delivering firepower in support of ground manoeuvre — follows a well-established Soviet tradition of having an Air Army support each operational direction to provide additional firepower. The approach, however, has had to change due to an evolving threat environment. Soviet concepts of air operations, from the Il-2 of the Second World War to the Su-25 Frogfoot, emphasised direct attack with guns, rockets and gravity bombs, initially meant to assist with delivering concentrated fire at the point of breakthrough, and thereafter to extend the depth of strikes of Soviet manoeuvre forces, thereby advancing beyond the range of concentrated artillery groups. The growing effectiveness of NATO fighter aircraft, however, pushed the Russians to transition to precision-guided bombing and then to undertake stand-off attacks using glide bombs. These types of attacks allow Russian aircraft to stay well behind the defensive screen of friendly air defences. Hence, Russia has emphasised the delivery of precision bombs with their own inertial and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) guidance, to deliver munitions with a far larger payload than ground-launched munitions suitable for large-scale employment. Such strikes target identified strong points, fighting positions and other targets where a large payload is critical to achieving lethal effect.

During Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russians have moved away from both medium-altitude precision bombing and lobbed rocket salvos by aircraft at low altitude, to instead employ gravity bombs augmented with a glide and guidance kit (UMPK). In 2022, Russia assessed what capabilities would achieve the greatest damage for the lowest price per unit and identified the UMPK fitted to its FAB-500, FAB-1000 and FAB-1500 bombs as the most promising capability against this metric. Primarily dropped from Su-34, glide bombs are now systematically used as part of Russian preparatory fires, destroying defensive positions in advance of Russian ground force operations. Hundreds of glide bomb strikes are recorded each week along the front. The Armed Forces of Ukraine recorded 3,370 UMPK strikes in February 2025, 4,800 in March, over 5,000 in April, 3,100 in June, 3,786 in July and 4,390 in August.8 Production of UMPK kits has risen dramatically, from several thousand in 2023 to 40,000 in 2024, and a production target of 70,000 in 2025.9 The accuracy of these glide bombs has varied over the course of the war, depending on the performance of Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) against Kometa jam-resistant GNSS navigation modules. Degradation in accuracy, however, is temporary as the Russians modify the Kometa-M regularly. With around a 50–70-km stand-off range, VKS aircraft conducting UMPK strikes are hard to intercept.

Russian fighters are optimized to perform three functions

Sunday, November 16th, 2025

Russian fighters are optimized to perform three functions:.

The first is maintaining medium- to high-altitude combat air patrols for defensive counter-air (DCA) operations. The second is the delivery of precision firepower in support of ground operations, with a particular emphasis on the reduction of enemy strong points rather than interdiction. Third, Russian fighters have been tasked with escorting bombers or naval vessels and conducting periodic intercepts beyond Russia’s borders.

The first mission set of DCA operations grew out of Soviet anxieties as to the paucity of the country’s radar coverage. From the 1970s, Soviet planners came to acknowledge that they were unlikely to keep pace with NATO airpower in a symmetrical competition. As a result, the Soviet Union prioritised the maturation of its air defences as a means of asymmetrically countering NATO airpower. A major limitation for ground-based radars, however, was their horizon, and the resulting possibility for NATO air forces or cruise missiles to fly at a low altitude to approach defended sites.

In turn, Soviet planners, and later the VKS, appreciated that their A-50 airborne early warning aircraft, their MiG-25 and MiG-31 interceptor patrols – perched at medium to high altitude over friendly air space – could use their radar to detect NATO aircraft approaching frontline areas at low altitude. In addition, the MiG-25 and MiG-31 interceptors could take advantage of launching R-33 missiles from a high altitude to outrange many NATO air-to-air missiles. Even if the target would have had sufficient time to ‘turn cold’, away from the missile, and thereby avoid being hit, this would have still defeated the low-altitude approach into Russian air space. Conversely, were the NATO aircraft to approach at a higher altitude to push back the Russian Combat Air Patrol (CAP), they would be well within the radar coverage of Russian ground-based air defence. The significance of this defensive mission expanded further as the Soviet Union, and later Russia, assessed NATO’s growing stocks of precision air-launched cruise missiles. Here, interdiction from the air was seen as essential by Russia, especially considering the size of Russian territory and the corresponding difficulty of tracking low-flying targets from all possible approaches.

Russia has notably had significant success in its use of the Su-35S to provide DCA-CAPs during its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has largely deterred Ukraine from using aircraft at any significant scale near the frontline, other than when shaping operations create limited windows of opportunity, or when employing stand-off weapons. The Russians have also inflicted a steady rate of air-to-air kills against the Ukrainian Air Force, including at significant range. The R-37M air-to-air missile, in particular, has been used to destroy several Ukrainian aircraft at long range, with one kill recorded at 177 km. This is significantly beyond the engagement range of most NATO air-to-air munitions, although the success of these engagements was heavily determined by Ukraine’s lack of effective radar warning receivers. The Russians have also significantly improved the performance and utility of their aircraft during the war, with a particular emphasis on using synthetic aperture radar imagery for targeting and battle damage assessment and improved data passing between the Su-35S and Russian air defence and ground-based fires.

A tank designed for urban terrain would have radically different design requirements than a main battle tank designed for open warfare

Friday, October 31st, 2025

A tank designed for urban terrain would have radically different design requirements than a main battle tank designed for open warfare:

Main battle tanks rely primarily upon their speed and long-range firepower and are willing to sacrifice extra armor to retain mobility. In urban combat, however, the reverse is true: fights are at much closer ranges, mobility is measured by the ability to navigate sharp turns and tight/narrow streets, and speed can be sacrificed to retain maximum armor protection. Other unique requirements are the ability to shoot in multiple directions at once, shoot around 90-degree corners, increased importance on the ability to shoot at high and negative elevations, and designing the hull to carry cage armor and/or active protection systems.

[…]

The first, most important, hard factor in an urban tank is its armor. Urban tanks will routinely fight at close range, and so every trick in the book will be necessary to ensure safety and survivability. Armor should be uniformly thick on the front, sides, and rear, since attacks from every angle are to be expected. A pentagon-shaped hull can offer the benefits of sloped armor and V-hulls for protection from mines. A slightly more complex alternative is an octagon-shaped hull, which can offer more angles and smaller flat surfaces for increased shot deflection. Additional armor modules, like cage armor and active protection systems, will not replace or reduce the hull armor’s thickness, and the chassis must be designed to carry them all at once without overloading.

The second hard factor, relating directly to the first, is the vehicle’s engine and mobility. Rather than being built for speed, a tank’s engine will instead resemble a bulldozer engine. An urban tank will be a very heavy vehicle, and so a bulldozer-style engine will be capable of both handling the sheer weight of the vehicle and will allow the tank to overpower obstacles.

Obstacle clearing must be an expected, routine occurrence for urban tanks, and the ability to smash through them and other man-made fortifications without requiring a separate armored bulldozer will be advantageous.

The third hard factor is the tank’s guns. An urban tank will use short-barreled guns, since longer barrels are difficult to maneuver in tight spaces and the tank is less likely to engage in long-range shooting. As a bonus, short-barreled guns are quicker to acquire targets. High-elevation and negative-elevation shooting also benefits from this quicker target acquisition.

An urban tank would have a mixture of gun calibers for its main turret and side turrets/sponsons, since it will need to be capable of firing in multiple directions at once. Side turrets and sponsons will not necessarily require large-caliber guns, but they will require rapid-fire guns. These will often be fired around street/building corners and into buildings from the street to provide flanking fire in support of advancing infantry. Urban tanks may also incorporate a flamethrower in front. The flamethrower would be desirable for covering a tank’s underbelly from attackers in spider holes, tunnel entrances such as manholes, and/or basement windows. It can also thwart attempts to drag mines into the tank’s path and reduce ground-level enemy gun positions designed to provide grazing fire.

A major development in modern tank design is the unmanned turret. As mentioned before, urban tanks must expect enemy fire from multiple directions simultaneously, and thus would benefit from having multiple turrets like a 1920s tank or a pre-dreadnought battleship. The 1920s designs were a failure because the turrets needed to be manned.

[…]

Unmanned turrets, however, allow modern side turrets/sponsons to be much smaller and more compact than their 1920s ancestors, and keep the operators at a safe distance in the event of a direct hit and/or ammunition cook-off. Unmanned turrets can also be placed farther forward on the hull than manned turrets, since they weigh less and thus pose less risk of causing balance/center-of-gravity issues. Placing side turrets further forward, in turn, enables urban tanks to fire around 90-degree corners while exposing as little of its hull as possible. The controls for these would ideally be constructed like the A-10 Warthog’s controls, with redundancy and mechanical backups for all automated systems.

A second soft factor design element is the inclusion of escape hatches on all sides and the rear of the tank, a move that necessitates placing the engine and side turrets/sponsons towards the front of the vehicle.

[…]

Classic urban antitank tactics involve firing down onto the tank from above; while this will be less damaging to an urban tank than a main battle tank on account of its uniformly thick armor, limiting urban tankers to exiting via top hatches noticeably reduces their likelihood of escaping safely when bailing out under fire. This survivability need will also affect the design and employment of cage armor; cage armor designs must not block escape routes, and the escape routes must not widen the cage armor profile any more than is necessary. If the tank becomes too wide, then its usefulness in narrow streets declines rapidly.

Marines’ latest Pacific strategy highlights logistics, firepower

Tuesday, October 28th, 2025

Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith released the Force Design 2030 update, which calls for building out the Corps’ logistics capabilities abroad to better resupply and sustain forces in the Pacific in the event of a major conflict:

Some solutions to the logistics issue include a dozen expeditionary fabrication labs, which can manufacture pieces and parts for in-the-field repairs rather than wait for parts to be shipped out from domestic factories. Other high-tech options include newer uncrewed vehicles, such as the Autonomous Low-Profile Vessel, to transport equipment and supplies with minimal risk to personnel. And then there are some low-tech plans, including one to simply set up more pre-placed stockpiles in the Indo-Pacific so that Marines can more easily access weapons and ammunition.

[…]

The other major focus is on building out the Marine Corps’ firepower. The update noted that the corps has been able to field multiple offensive weapons including the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, or NMESIS, that fires ship-killing missiles, and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems or HIMARS. It also has started fielding air defense systems including the Marine Air Defense Integrated System, or MADIS, which are meant to counter drones and missiles. Last month, Marines brought the NMESIS and MADIS systems to Japan for a two-week exercise with the Japanese Self-Defense Force that focused on coastal island defense. This coming week III Marine Expeditionary Force is set to test HIMARS near Mount Fuji, according to III Marine Expeditionary Force.

The actual document opens with these words:

The Marine Corps is a naval expeditionary warfighting organization. We exist for one purpose: to fight and win our Nation’s battles. That truth has not changed since 1775, and it remains the measure of our relevance today.

We are modernizing at a time when the character of war is shifting rapidly. Adversaries are fielding advanced weapons and employing new methods designed to erode our warfighting advantages. Drones, long-range precision fires, cyber effects, and electronic warfare are now daily features of conflict. The lessons drawn from contemporary battlefields underscore what Marines have long understood: combat is unforgiving, and victory belongs to the side that adapts faster, fights harder, and endures longer.

Force Design is how we ensure our Corps stays ahead of this change and is driven by a continuous Campaign of Learning tested in wargames, refined in exercises, and proven in real-world operations. We are equipping Marines with the tools to thrive in contested environments: precision fires, unmanned systems, advanced mobility, resilient command and control, and data-driven decision-making. Yet technology alone will never define us. While the character of war evolves, its nature endures, and our ethos remains aligned to that truth. We do not man the equipment, we equip the Marine. Discipline, toughness, and initiative will always remain the decisive factors in battle.

Joe Rogan interviews Palmer Luckey

Sunday, October 26th, 2025

This Joe Rogan interview of Palmer Luckey is self-recommending:

The Barrett SSRS is a recoil-operated, magazine-fed, semi-automatic rifle chambered in 30×42 mm

Wednesday, September 17th, 2025

During DSEI UK 2025 in London, Barrett Firearms introduced its 30mm Squad Support Rifle System (SSRS). developed in cooperation with Mars Inc., to the public outside the US:

The weapon recently won the U.S. Army’s xTech Soldier Lethality Competition and secured USD 2 million in funding, confirming its relevance in the ongoing Precision Grenadier System (PGS) program.

[…]

The Barrett SSRS is a recoil-operated, magazine-fed, semi-automatic rifle chambered in 30×42 mm. The system is compact and ergonomic, with an overall length of 861 mm and a 305 mm barrel, while its weight remains approximately 6.3 kg with the integrated fire control system. Feeding from five-round detachable magazines, the SSRS provides dismounted units with the ability to engage targets up to 500 meters in less than three seconds, offering a much flatter trajectory than traditional 40×46 mm low-velocity grenades. With an effective range greater than most current squad-level grenade launchers, it enhances both precision and lethality in medium-range engagements.

A distinctive feature of the system is its advanced Direct Fire Control – Precision Targeting (DFC-PT) unit, developed by Precision Targeting LLC. This electro-optical fire control system integrates a laser rangefinder, ballistic solver, environmental sensors, and a disturbed reticle, significantly improving first-round hit probability. The SSRS is also designed for compatibility with remote weapon stations, expanding its application beyond individual infantry use to vehicle-mounted platforms.

Development has been rapid. Within eleven months, Barrett and Mars Inc. designed, built, and tested the SSRS, demonstrating its effectiveness under the U.S. Army’s Precision Grenadier System requirement. This achievement led to its recognition as the winner of the Army’s Soldier Lethality Competition in May 2025. Ammunition developed by Amtec Corp. further broadens its operational spectrum, with multiple natures including High Explosive Dual Purpose (HEDP), Close Quarters Battle (CQB), anti-drone rounds, and training practice slugs. This variety makes the weapon adaptable to both urban combat and counter-drone operations, two of the most pressing challenges on today’s battlefields.

We’ve discussed the SSRS before.

To build your own drone batteries, you have to source quality cells from a reliable supplier and assemble them into battery packs

Saturday, August 30th, 2025

If you break open a drone battery, David Hambling notes, you will find a shrink-wrapped block containing smaller batteries:

These cells are described by their size, so an 18650 cell is a cylindrical unit about 18 millimeters in diameter and 65 millimeters in height, while a 2170 is 21mm in diameter and 70 mm high.

A typical laptop battery will contain six 18650 lithium-ion cells. The battery pack for a Tesla Model 3 Long Range made before 2018 contains 2170-type cells, no less than 4,416 of them.

While not all cells are created equal, they are essentially commodity products manufactured by the billion. They’re made mainly by big players in the Far East; China dominates but it does not have a monopoly. Other sources are readily available.

The biggest battery maker by capacity is Chinese outfit CATL, making 132 GWH of cells every year. But the next two are South Korean LG (93 GWH) and Japanese Panasonic (60 GWH), and there are two other Korean outfits, Samsung and SK, in the top ten.

To build your own drone batteries, you have to source quality cells from a reliable supplier and assemble them into battery packs. And that is exactly what Ukrainian drone maker Wild Hornets has been doing for some time.

A video on social media explains Wild Hornets’ process. The building blocks for its battery packs are Samsung 50S, which are optimized for high-power applications and have a respectable 5000 mAH capacity.

The cells are arranged in blocks of 12 in a 6s2p unit (that is, 6 rows of 2 batteries) or 18 in 6s3p (6 rows of 3) configuration. These are connected with metal strips and 0.25 mm copper wiring — “we don’t economize” the presenter says in the video — spot welded into place. Spot welding is costlier than soldering, but more reliable. The completed unit is then securely shrink-wrapped with multiple layers of tough plastic.

[…]

The end result costs a total of $65 for small batteries and $90 for large, similar to commercial drone batteries.

Of course, they’re called batteries because they’re collections of smaller cells:

Benjamin Franklin first used the term “battery” in 1749 when he was doing experiments with electricity using a set of linked Leyden jar capacitors. Franklin grouped a number of the jars into what he described as a “battery”, using the military term for weapons functioning together.

Skilled immigrants often constitute an espionage risk

Wednesday, August 13th, 2025

Given the reality of mixed loyalties, Arctotherium notes, it shouldn’t be surprising that skilled immigrants often constitute an espionage risk:

Take the infamous Pakistani nuclear physicist AQ Khan. In 1961, he moved to West Berlin as a foreign student, then to the Netherlands and finally Belgium to finish his education, graduating with a Doctorate in Engineering in 1972. Khan was undoubtedly among the best and brightest of Pakistan, the sort of high-agency STEM genius that brain drain advocates hold up as America’s greatest strength. Was allowing A.Q. Khan into the West a good decision? No.

Khan got a position at the Physics Dynamics Research Laboratory, a Dutch firm specializing in uranium enrichment via centrifuge. He stole centrifuge designs and blueprints, and after returning to Pakistan set up an international network of illicit suppliers for centrifuge parts using his contacts, leading to the 1998 Pakistani nuclear bomb. From there, he diffused nuclear technology further. The North Korean, Iranian and Libyan nuclear programs all trace back to A.Q. Khan. Pakistan has had multiple serious nuclear war scares with India in the last five years. North Korea, which has a history of doing things like axe-murder Americans, can act with relative impunity thanks to its nuclear arsenal, and Israel and the US recently bombed Iran over their nuclear program.

There are many examples from the US. For instance, Noshir Gowadia, an Indian Parsi designer of the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, and Chi Mak, who worked on nuclear submarines, both sold secrets to China.

It’s basically a stretched-out, stripped-down all-terrain vehicle without doors or a roof with seating for as many as nine soldiers

Sunday, August 3rd, 2025

The Army’s new Infantry Squad Vehicle, successor to the Humvee, is built by GM Defense, based on the Chevrolet Colorado ZR2 midsize truck, using 90% Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) parts — including Chevrolet Performance off-road racing components:

It’s basically a stretched-out, stripped-down all-terrain vehicle without doors or a roof with seating for as many as nine soldiers.

[…]

Thousands of pounds lighter and $80,000 cheaper than the Humvee, the Infantry Squad Vehicle is based on the Chevrolet Colorado truck built in Missouri.

Infantry Squad Vehicle

“You can repair it anywhere on earth as long as you have access to commercial parts rather than a special military vehicle with special military parts,” said Miller, the Army’s top technical adviser.

[…]

The vehicle isn’t meant to withstand an attack, the official said. It’s designed to whisk soldiers within a few miles of the frontline and allow them to walk a short distance to the fight.

[…]

Its lighter weight, relative to a Humvee, means the Infantry Squad Vehicle can be carried by a Black Hawk helicopter for a short distance with a sling. A twin-rotor Chinook helicopter can carry two of the trucks inside its cargo bay for a greater distance. A Humvee’s weight requires a Chinook, and then just one can be carried in a sling.