Some Thoughts About The Kingdom of Thailand

Friday, January 18th, 2013

Michael Yon shares some thoughts about the kingdom of Thailand:

Thailand enjoys freedom of the press.   Few topics are off limits.  Pornography is off limits.

An insult to the Royal institution can get you imprisoned.  If you disparage the Royalty on Facebook while in Kansas, and months later fly to Thailand, you may be arrested and jailed.

A task force in Bangkok combs the Internet for acts of lèse majesté.  I took a drive recently with one of the officers who works on that task force.  He said that offenders residing in the United States commit most violations.

If you are an American and you commit lèse majesté, the King may pardon you after some time in prison.  If you are fortunate you may be sent back to America and blacklisted.  You will not be tortured or beaten.

You will endure the same penal conditions as any other convict, which in Thailand, as anywhere, can be unpleasant.  You will be declared persona non grata, and you will not be welcome to return to the Kingdom.

His Majesty King Bhumibol of Thailand is an excellent man of peace, and he is revered as a grandfatherly figure here.  I could easily leave Thailand and write otherwise, but this is true.

The King is highly respected by American military and government officials.  I was invited to a private clubhouse for American military veterans, and they had a portrait of His Majesty the King and Her Majesty the Queen on the wall.

Behind closed doors, amongst themselves, the veterans of our military hold King Bhumibol Adulyadej in the highest esteem.  The King earned respect through hard work for his people.  He is beloved.

The King spent much time in the United States in his youth.  He is always welcome in America.  The King will never go thirsty when I have water.

Criticizing the King of Thailand is not like disparaging the President of the United States or the Prime Minister of Thailand.

It is permissible to criticize the Prime Minister of Thailand.  The Thai often do it, no matter who he or she may be.  Thai people criticize their leadership with passion and imagination.

The current Prime Minister of Thailand is a woman.  The United States has never had a female president, while Poland, Germany, the UK, and Pakistan all have had female leaders.  South Korea just elected a woman.

While the gender of the chief executive may not be a critical matter, it is clear that America does not have a patent on “democracy,” and in some ways, compared to other countries, Americans are not as free as we like to believe and advertise.

But insulting His Majesty the King is like insulting the beloved grandfather of millions of proud Thai people.  I doubt that the King himself cares about such comments, but millions of his subjects do, and passionately.

My Thai friends will defend the King with their lives.  The same way that we would protect our grandparents.  These many words are meant to underline a matter of utmost seriousness.

Emergency Psychiatric Care and Guns

Monday, January 14th, 2013

The Assistant Village Idiot has worked for years in emergency psychiatric care:

People come to me because they have been dangerous due to mental illness. That can mean dangerous to themselves or to others, and sometimes “dangerousness” stretches as far as self-care: wandering in the street, not eating. But in both the first two categories, harming self or harming others, guns are often involved.

I’ve met a lot of people who have threatened to shoot someone, and some who actually have. It is sometimes part of my job to call family, police, or neighbors and try to figure out whether there was actually a gun to start with, whether someone has removed it, whether the police have taken custody of it. I am very familiar with that sickening feeling, hearing someone’s story and thinking “Oh crap. This person should absolutely never be allowed near guns.”

One category of people I work with are seldom gun-people. Social workers, psychologists, psychiatrists, and the various rehab groups don’t hunt and don’t tend to have been in the military. They are more likely to come from urban or suburban backgrounds. Whether they got their deer this year never comes up. The other hospital staff, the nurses and psych techs, the environmental services and dietary folks, the medical records and administrative people are more like the general population, some hunters, some not. The professional staff think that gun ownership is itself a worrisome sign. They say they don’t, and many go out of their way to be understanding and recognising cultural differences and forcing themselves back from passing judgement. But it’s clear what they think. They say stuff that offends the others, but the others are pretty used to it by now and shrug it off.

[...]

You should be more worried about what mentally ill people in crisis are going to do with their cars than their guns. A lot more. Some of that is greater availability, and that people spend many more hours holding a steering wheel than a pistol. But greater safety per minute used isn’t really the point, because that increased time is part of everyday life and isn’t going to change. Given that greater danger, what do you want to do about that? Remember that you want people who have been in crisis to be able to resume normal lives, going to work and visiting relatives, getting themselves to appointments, living where they like. So sketch out a mental-health, dangerous-driving statute if you can, just to see the possible obstacles and difficulties.

Now understand that it’s much the same for guns.

Second, there is a federal law that prohibits any person who has been involuntarily committed to a psychiatric institution from acquiring a firearm. Two problems. There is no enforcement mechanism set up, because no one wants to give gun sellers or local police access to confidential medical information, for good reasons of privacy. It gets sticky, and there is no national registry of the involuntarily committed. Next, that word “acquiring” looms large. What about guns already owned? What about borrowing your brother’s rifle to hunt or target shoot? What do you do when Sam says he wants to shoot someone and has access to a gun, but next day says he was lying, that he’s never owned one and has no friends who have them? Where do you search? How were you planning on wording that warrant when it’s not illegal to own that gun?

Third. People who had a suicidal crisis are often extremely willing to turn in their guns and have already done so by the time they talk to us. They are relieved. “I called my wife and told her to get both guns out of the house — give ‘em to anyone. I never want to go through that again.” People who were threatening others are less likely to do this.

Fourth, even with all those people who scare the bejeesus out of me, we have very little gun crime in NH — and a lot of what we do have is coming up out of Lynn, Lawrence, Lowell, and Haverhill, MA. That caught me by surprise when a friend who went to become one of the prison psychologists told me that a lot of our prison population were not NH residents. He said almost half, though I can’t back that up. So even our low rate of gun crime is inflated. Yet NH is a high gun-owning state. The words of Howard Dean come to mind, when he was explaining his state to national Democrats. “You have to understand that this is Vermont, where even liberals own 2-3 guns.” There’s some other reason — something other than legislative strictness and mere possession — that drives actual violence. I have my theories.

Fifth, some gun owners are yahoos. So what? Give me measurables. It does strike me as weird that people would want more advanced weaponry. I immediately grasp the argument that “they really don’t need that.” But you can also hear people say “They really don’t need those big SUV’s.” “They really don’t need…” those jetskis, more miles of hiking trails, expensive cars, hundred choices of shampoo, video games, free condoms — you get the picture. You have to be able to show, not just hypothesize or imagine, that there is some ill effect that requires intervention. As far as I know, that isn’t there. Gun laws don’t seem to move the dial much one way or the other.

Sixth, based on no knowledge other than history, I predict that the Obama administration will (perhaps already has) propose sweeping legislation that includes the entire wish-list of gun control advocates. He’s not an incrementalist. (Washington in general prefers comprehensive solutions for several reasons, all of them bad.) Using a crisis to manipulate people’s emotions is SOP.

Please Stop the Aid

Monday, January 14th, 2013

Spiegel interviews Kenyan economist James Shikwati on aid to Africa:

SPIEGEL: Mr. Shikwati, the G8 summit at Gleneagles is about to beef up the development aid for Africa…

Shikwati: … for God’s sake, please just stop.

SPIEGEL: Stop? The industrialized nations of the West want to eliminate hunger and poverty.

Shikwati: Such intentions have been damaging our continent for the past 40 years. If the industrial nations really want to help the Africans, they should finally terminate this awful aid. The countries that have collected the most development aid are also the ones that are in the worst shape. Despite the billions that have poured in to Africa, the continent remains poor.

SPIEGEL: Do you have an explanation for this paradox?

Shikwati: Huge bureaucracies are financed (with the aid money), corruption and complacency are promoted, Africans are taught to be beggars and not to be independent. In addition, development aid weakens the local markets everywhere and dampens the spirit of entrepreneurship that we so desperately need. As absurd as it may sound: Development aid is one of the reasons for Africa’s problems. If the West were to cancel these payments, normal Africans wouldn’t even notice. Only the functionaries would be hard hit. Which is why they maintain that the world would stop turning without this development aid.

SPIEGEL: Even in a country like Kenya, people are starving to death each year. Someone has got to help them.

Shikwati: But it has to be the Kenyans themselves who help these people. When there’s a drought in a region of Kenya, our corrupt politicians reflexively cry out for more help. This call then reaches the United Nations World Food Program — which is a massive agency of apparatchiks who are in the absurd situation of, on the one hand, being dedicated to the fight against hunger while, on the other hand, being faced with unemployment were hunger actually eliminated. It’s only natural that they willingly accept the plea for more help. And it’s not uncommon that they demand a little more money than the respective African government originally requested. They then forward that request to their headquarters, and before long, several thousands tons of corn are shipped to Africa …

SPIEGEL: … corn that predominantly comes from highly-subsidized European and American farmers …

Shikwati: … and at some point, this corn ends up in the harbor of Mombasa. A portion of the corn often goes directly into the hands of unsrupulous politicians who then pass it on to their own tribe to boost their next election campaign. Another portion of the shipment ends up on the black market where the corn is dumped at extremely low prices. Local farmers may as well put down their hoes right away; no one can compete with the UN’s World Food Program. And because the farmers go under in the face of this pressure, Kenya would have no reserves to draw on if there actually were a famine next year. It’s a simple but fatal cycle.

Religion for Atheists

Sunday, January 13th, 2013

Ben Casnocha shares some highlights from Alain de Botton’s Religion for Atheists:

We can then recognize that we invented religions to serve two central needs which continue to this day and which secular society has not been able to solve with any particular skill: first, the need to live together in communities in harmony, despite our deeply rooted selfish and violent impulses. And second, the need to cope with terrifying degrees of pain which arise from our vulnerability to professional failure, to troubled relationships, to the death of loved ones and to our decay and demise.

For instance, much of what is best about Christmas is entirely unrelated to the story of the birth of Christ. It revolves around themes of community, festivity and renewal which pre-date the context in which they were cast over the centuries by Christianity.

One of the losses modern society feels most keenly is that of a sense of community. We tend to imagine that there once existed a degree of neighbourliness which has been replaced by ruthless anonymity, a state where people pursue contact with one another primarily for restricted, individualistic ends: for financial gain, social advancement or romantic love.

All buildings give their owners opportunities to recondition visitors’ expectations and to lay down rules of conduct specific to them. The art gallery legitimates the practice of peering silently at a canvas, the nightclub of swaying one’s hands to a musical score. And a church, with its massive timber doors and 300 stone angels carved around its porch, gives us rare permission to lean over and say hello to a stranger without any danger of being thought predatory or insane. We are promised that here (in the words of the Mass’s initial greeting) ‘the love of God and the fellowship of the Holy Spirit’ belong to all who have assembled. The Church lends its enormous prestige, accrued through age, learning and architectural grandeur, to our shy desire to open ourselves to someone new.

Subversion

Saturday, January 12th, 2013

A few years ago I mentioned Soviet propagandist Yuri Bezmenov, who defected to the US and then explained — to no effect — how he and his colleagues had been manipulating our schools and media for decades.

When I mentioned this, the YouTube videos of his long, early-1980s lectures were broken up into many separate, short videos. Now, our Slovenian guest has informed me, they’re available in an undivided format:

New Shade of Green

Monday, January 7th, 2013

Back in 2001, Mark Lynas threw a pie in the face of Bjorn Lomborg (The Skeptical Environmentalist), yelling “pies for lies!”

Now Lynas recants and casts his support behind genetically modified crops:

When I first heard about Monsanto’s GM soya I knew exactly what I thought. Here was a big American corporation with a nasty track record, putting something new and experimental into our food without telling us. Mixing genes between species seemed to be about as unnatural as you can get — here was humankind acquiring too much technological power; something was bound to go horribly wrong. These genes would spread like some kind of living pollution. It was the stuff of nightmares.

These fears spread like wildfire, and within a few years GM was essentially banned in Europe, and our worries were exported by NGOs like Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth to Africa, India and the rest of Asia, where GM is still banned today. This was the most successful campaign I have ever been involved with.

This was also explicitly an anti-science movement. We employed a lot of imagery about scientists in their labs cackling demonically as they tinkered with the very building blocks of life. Hence the Frankenstein food tag — this absolutely was about deep-seated fears of scientific powers being used secretly for unnatural ends. What we didn’t realize at the time was that the real Frankenstein’s monster was not GM technology, but our reaction against it.

For me this anti-science environmentalism became increasingly inconsistent with my pro-science environmentalism with regard to climate change. I published my first book on global warming in 2004, and I was determined to make it scientifically credible rather than just a collection of anecdotes.

So I had to back up the story of my trip to Alaska with satellite data on sea ice, and I had to justify my pictures of disappearing glaciers in the Andes with long-term records of mass balance of mountain glaciers. That meant I had to learn how to read scientific papers, understand basic statistics and become literate in very different fields from oceanography to paleoclimate, none of which my degree in politics and modern history helped me with a great deal.

I found myself arguing constantly with people who I considered to be incorrigibly anti-science, because they wouldn’t listen to the climatologists and denied the scientific reality of climate change. So I lectured them about the value of peer-review, about the importance of scientific consensus and how the only facts that mattered were the ones published in the most distinguished scholarly journals.

My second climate book, Six Degrees, was so sciency that it even won the Royal Society science books prize, and climate scientists I had become friendly with would joke that I knew more about the subject than them. And yet, incredibly, at this time in 2008 I was still penning screeds in the Guardian attacking the science of GM — even though I had done no academic research on the topic, and had a pretty limited personal understanding. I don’t think I’d ever read a peer-reviewed paper on biotechnology or plant science even at this late stage.

Obviously this contradiction was untenable. What really threw me were some of the comments underneath my final anti-GM Guardian article. In particular one critic said to me: so you’re opposed to GM on the basis that it is marketed by big corporations. Are you also opposed to the wheel because because it is marketed by the big auto companies?

So I did some reading. And I discovered that one by one my cherished beliefs about GM turned out to be little more than green urban myths.

I’d assumed that it would increase the use of chemicals. It turned out that pest-resistant cotton and maize needed less insecticide.

I’d assumed that GM benefited only the big companies. It turned out that billions of dollars of benefits were accruing to farmers needing fewer inputs.

I’d assumed that Terminator Technology was robbing farmers of the right to save seed. It turned out that hybrids did that long ago, and that Terminator never happened.

I’d assumed that no one wanted GM. Actually what happened was that Bt cotton was pirated into India and roundup ready soya into Brazil because farmers were so eager to use them.

I’d assumed that GM was dangerous. It turned out that it was safer and more precise than conventional breeding using mutagenesis for example; GM just moves a couple of genes, whereas conventional breeding mucks about with the entire genome in a trial and error way.

But what about mixing genes between unrelated species? The fish and the tomato? Turns out viruses do that all the time, as do plants and insects and even us — it’s called gene flow.

You have to love the NY Times‘ commenters:

There is a long tradition in the English speaking world of sudden middle age veers to the right. Lynas has plenty of company among tarnished intellectuals like Horowitz and Pound, and you see it every day in stolid and sold out administrators of green NGO’s.

Conventional wisdom has always been that they’ve decided “What the hell, I can’t make any difference, I’m going after the money”, but I suspect a different cause. The ability to perform hard intellectual tasks atrophies after about age 40, and those such as Lynas who were on the edge in the first place experience inner panic. This is expressed as a quiet rage, and they rediscover the ability to attract attention by flipping to “contrarian” but in reality quite conventional corporate perspectives.

Indeed, that’s clearly the only reasonable explanation…

Educational Reform

Monday, January 7th, 2013

Many people talk about the dire state of American education, Gregory Cochran notes:

Naturally, almost all of what they say is nonsense.  You would expect that, since they were educated in that awful system…

One common theme is that education has gone to the dogs.  Kids aren’t learning the way they used to.  College graduates aren’t as smart as they once were.   Blah blah blah.

All false. Average academic achievement has not changed much over the  years.  We have good, representative national results for the last 40 years (NAEP); not much change.  We have some regional results (Iowa, mainly) that go back further: not much change.

Within every ethnic group, there has been some improvement, but nationally,  that has been canceled out by increases in the fraction of students from low-scoring groups. This is unevenly distributed.  For example, in California: scores are a lot lower than they were in 1965 because the kids are demographically quite different – i.e. dumber.

Now and then I have had someone say to me that schools in Brooklyn have gone to the dogs: somehow Puerto Rican kids today score far lower than the Jewish kids of yesteryear.  Do tell.

As it happens, kids from low-scoring groups do poorly (on average) wherever they go to school, and kids from high-scoring groups do well wherever they go to school. For example, my kids are going to a low-scoring, mostly-minority high school, but do fine.

Jerry Pournelle used to tell me that the school system somehow went to hell in the middle of WWII, since hardly any draftees were excluded for low scores in 1942 while 10% were in 1952.  Of course,  in practice, nobody could figure out what to do with such low-scoring guys in WWII, so Congress passed a law excluding the bottom 10%. Jerry has also told me that when he was a kid, everyone in his county could read. The census says otherwise.

That reminds me of my upper-caste Indian-American colleagues explaining that everyone in India speaks English.

Anyway:

Since within-group scores have gone up, you might think that education is more effective than it used to be. Another point in support of the US educational system is that members of a given ethnic group almost always score higher in the US than they do in other countries: not enormously higher, but some higher (PISA results).

But the fact that kids are learning a bit more does not necessarily have anything to do with the educational system. It might, but there could be other reasons. Way more high school kids are taking calculus than did in 1970, and math scores are up. I’d guess that the school systems are responsible in that case. But other factors may predominate. Kids today, on average, have parents with more education than kids in 1970. Maybe that helps. For example, when my daughter asked for help with her combinatorics homework, I could help, sometimes — not without feeling the mental rust flaking off the hinges. On the other hand, my father was a high-school graduate and hadn’t taken any higher math. In the other direction, some studies seem to show a higher fraction of people with high verbal scores before the late 1960s, and I wonder if watching lots more hours of TV each day somehow cut into reading time. Between 1950 and 1970, TV changed far more than schools did. Another point: teachers are, on average, a good deal dumber than they used to be. Education majors score about a standard deviation lower than typical college graduates, which I don’t think was the case in the more distant past. It’s hard to see how this is compatible with better results, yet there they are.

We spend a lot more money on education than we used to, but I would guess that increased spending has had no effect at all. Higher salaries, for dumber teachers, combined with vast increases in administrative personnel ? nothing .

It is true that the average high school graduate is dumber than in 1940, but then we graduate a much higher percentage today than we did then. Most of that increase has been among weaker students. It may be that the average 18-year-old high school graduate knew more then than now: but that does not mean that average 18-year-old today knows any less. If I were king, which should happen any day now, and suddenly conferred a B.A. on everyone, the average degree-holder would know less, even though everyone knew just as much as they did the day before. Or, what if baseball expanded to three major leagues? The quality of professional ball would decline without any player forgetting how to hit a curve ball.

Often people quote some study showing that the average 17- or 21-year-old doesn’t know jack shit as evidence of educational decline: of course it would only show this if they also included evidence that some earlier generation knew more, which is generally not the case. At some future time I may discuss what people know: average people, college-educated people, and the Fools at the Top.

I also often hear about the awfulness of public education, compared to private schools. In general, that’s bullshit. As far as I can tell, adjusting for student quality, results are no different. Private schools get to kick out troublesome kids: as far as I can tell, that is their only advantage.

I find it odd that almost all private schools have settled on the exact same methodology as public schools — a few dozen kids in a room with a teacher for an hour at a time, etc. — with ever so slightly higher standards. Where’s the innovation?

Tarantino Explained

Friday, January 4th, 2013

Steve Sailer explains Quentin Tarantino:

Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained is, among much else during its leisurely 165-minute running time, an adolescent male revenge fantasy about an omnipotent mass shooter wreaking carnage upon dozens of victims. I suspect the film would have appealed profoundly to the late Adam Lanza.

You might think that this wouldn’t be the best time for a quasi-comic daydream/bloodbath about a deadeye gunman who always fires first and is immune to the thousands of bullets shot at him. But the recent unpleasantness in Sandy Hook has gone almost unmentioned in the critical hosannas greeting Django… because, you see, the invulnerable hero is a black gunman shooting bad (i.e., Southern white) people.

It’s not much more complicated than that.

More Colorful Than Reality

Thursday, January 3rd, 2013

Campus brochures lack truth in advertising:

Pippert and his researchers looked at more than 10,000 images from college brochures, comparing the racial breakdown of students in the pictures to the colleges’ actual demographics. They found that, overall, the whiter the school, the more diversity depicted in the brochures, especially for certain groups.

“When we looked at African-Americans in those schools that were predominantly white, the actual percentage in those campuses was only about 5 percent of the student body,” he says. “They were photographed at 14.5 percent.”

Unwilding America

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013

North America was much wilder and more dangerous before the Indians arrived, Gregory Cochran reminds us:

Today, or for that matter during colonial times. there are only a few dangerous creatures around: grizzly bears, black bears, polar bears, and a few poisonous snakes. Mountain lions attack people, but rarely. I suppose some people die from drunkenly running their pickup into a buck on a country road.

Back in the Pleistocene, life was more exciting. You had to worry about really potent predators like dire wolves, sabertooth cats, lions, and short-faced bears. There were also plenty of giant herbivores that would have been dangerous, ranging from mammoths to ground sloths. In general, more like Africa today, a place where people who fall asleep walking home from the beer joint in the next village have their faces eaten by hyenas.

Paul Martin, who did excellent work in showing that Quaternary extinctions were caused by human hunters, felt that we should do our best to recreate those extinct faunas in North America, by introducing wild horses, camels, elephants, tigers, and such to the great plains. I don’t think he ever bothered to explain why anyone would want to do this. To him, it was obvious. Not to me.

A related concept, the Wildlands Project, was put forth almost 20 years ago. Loons are still pushing it. The idea is that many species, especially predators, can only survive in the long term if they have much more space than they do currently. So the people backing the Wildlands project want to expel humans from as much as half of the continent. Some big names such as Paul Ehrlich and E. O. Wilson have endorsed this. Of course, they’re all mad as hatters.

First question is why anyone would want to infest the nation with maneaters? Right now, in most of the country, you don’t have to worry about your kids being eaten. Why would anyone want to change that? They’d have to be implacably hostile to the human race. And of course, they are.

I’m pretty sure they’re suggested fenced-in game preserves, not saber-toothed tigers let loose in Nebraska — or maybe not.

There’s Little We Can Do to Prevent Another Massacre

Tuesday, January 1st, 2013

Megan McArdle states the unpopular truth that there’s little we can do to prevent another massacre:

What Lanza shows us is the limits of the obvious policy responses.  He had all the mental health resources he needed — and he did it anyway.  The law stopped him from buying a gun — and he did it anyway.  The school had an intercom system aimed at stopping unauthorized entry — and he did it anyway.  Any practical, easy-to-implement solution to school shootings that you could propose, along with several that were not at all easy to implement, was already in place.  Somehow, Lanza blew through them all.

Perhaps we need to go farther.  But how far? The one thing we cannot do, though this did not stop many people from suggesting it, is to ban “the types of weapons that make these shootings possible”.  It is easy and satisfying to be for “gun control” in the abstract, but we cannot pass gun control, in the abstract.  We have to pass a specific law that describes very specifically what people may and may not do.  That means we need to carefully specify the features that makes these shootings possible.  And unfortunately, the feature is… “fires metal pellets at high speed”.

You don’t need a special kind of gun to shoot civilians.  You just need a gun. A handgun, a shotgun, and a rifle are all pretty deadly at close quarters, and Lanza went to the school with all three.  (He left the shotgun in the back of a car).  You don’t need a military style rifle, or a high-powered scope, or a pistol grip, or a detachable stock, because concealment is not a big issue, and you don’t need much aim to put a bullet into someone at ten feet.  Nor can you stop these shootings by restricting people to hunting rifles, which for some reason people seem to think are less deadly than regular guns.

What is wrong with American medicine

Sunday, December 30th, 2012

Joel W. Hay explains what is wrong with American medicine:

Suppose you went to your local car dealership and they said they had a great deal on a new car model, the “IMRT.” Then they told you that the IMRT costs 20 times what the older model costs and probably isn’t any better. You’d immediately walk out the door. But if you are a Medicare or Medicaid patient with prostate cancer and the “dealer” is your local urologist, and the IMRT is “intensity-modulated radiation therapy,” it sells like hotcakes when it is 20 times more expensive than prostate surgery and provides no better outcomes for a majority of patients.

IMRT is the poster child for what is wrong with American medicine. The 20-fold higher price doesn’t matter much to the patient because it’s mostly covered by Medicare or other insurance. However, the urologist that prescribes IMRT can get hundreds of times as much from Medicare as they would from the more conservative treatment approach of “watchful waiting” – monitoring disease progress through routine office visits. As UC San Francisco urologist Dr. Cooperberg said, “Doctors do what they’re paid to do. If you tell them they can earn $2,000 for surgery or $37,000 for IMRT, what do you think will happen?”

[...]

By federal law Medicare is not allowed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of alternative drug treatments. By federal law, the Obamacare center for outcomes evaluation (PCORI.org) is forbidden from evaluating the costs of alternative health care treatments.

This is why we are facing a $60 trillion unfunded liability for future Medicare costs and why all of the increases in average worker compensation over the past two decades have been sucked away by increased health care costs.

What price multiculturalism?

Thursday, December 20th, 2012

What price multiculturalism?, Alexander Boot asks:

The proportion of Muslims in youth jails now stands at 21 percent, up from 13 percent two years ago. That’s more than five times the proportion of Muslims in the population, which raises all sorts of awkward questions, including the one in the title.

But the first question is why? Why are young Muslims in Britain criminalised to such an extent? Is there something in Islam that encourages bestial behaviour?

In fact, a fourth of Muslim offenders claim that by committing crimes they follow their faith. Not being an unequivocal admirer of Islam, I still have to say they are slandering their religion. There’s nothing there that promotes everyday criminality.

For example, Turkey’s crime rate is lower by orders of magnitude than that in the USA. Even Pakistan has a lower crime rate than most Western nations, this despite the 10 years of ‘war on terror’ and the resulting black market in guns, the biggest in the world.

Why then are young Muslims five times more likely than their white neighbours to commit crimes in Britain? For the same reason that thugs would be more likely to paint-spray an obscene graffito on someone else’s front door than on their own.

Or perhaps a better analogy would be to look at the behaviour of most youngsters at home and abroad. Observing them, one has to notice that they feel even less constrained on their foreign travels than in their own neighbourhoods. The moment they land on foreign soil, all bets are off and school’s out.

It’s as if the already thin veneer of civilisation has been rubbed off them. British stag parties seem to have no compunction against trashing a bar in, say, Prague (where many bars display ‘No British’ signs), something they’d think twice about doing to their local.

This is difficult to condone but easy to understand. Not just young louts but even a perfectly respectable middle-aged gentleman takes much better care of his home than of his hotel room. The problem with youth criminality in Britain stems from just that: they simply don’t regard Britain as their home. In a similar vein, Muslim rapist gangs target white girls but hardly ever Muslim ones — white girls are alien to them, and normal civilities just don’t apply.

Why then do Muslims, even those who are British born and bred, feel like strangers in their own land? One could write a whole book on this subject, but in a short piece it’s sufficient to observe that the drive for multiculturalism has predictably produced results exactly opposite to those intended.

Rather than making all cultures and religions equally welcome, promoting thereby good will among all, multiculturalism has effectively destroyed a single, dominant culture for which others could reach tropistically. Such a culture is a sine qua non of a truly integrated society, for without it the social fabric will remain a tissue-thin patchwork, soon to be torn to tatters.

If a denizen of Bradford were to feel English first, British second, Yorkshireman third and Muslim a distant forth, he’d be less likely to treat his home town with all the loving care of a conquering vandal. Surely this is self-evident?

Of Malevolent Democracies and Benevolent Autocracies

Monday, December 17th, 2012

Using the Cingranelli-Richards (CIRI) human rights dataset and the Political Terror Scale, Xavier Marquez produces a quantitative history of political regimes, examining malevolent democracies and benevolent autocracies:

If anything, a slight worsening trend in the extent to which states engage in torture, killing, and so on is detectable here, despite the increase in democracy over the same period.

His conclusion:

At any rate, it seems as if the old idea of checks and balances is at least somewhat vindicated by the evidence of the last three decades: constraints matter, and don’t count on benevolent autocrats.

The deadliest school massacre in US history was in 1927

Saturday, December 15th, 2012

The deadliest school massacre in US history was in 1927, Lenore Skenazy reminds us — and they handled it rather differently:

A school board official, enraged at a tax increase to fund school construction, quietly planted explosives in Bath Township Elementary. Then, the day he was finally ready, he set off an inferno. When crowds rushed in to rescue the children, he drove up his shrapnel-filled car and detonated it, too, killing more people, including himself. And then, something we’d find very strange happened.

Nothing.

No cameras were placed at the front of schools. No school guards started making visitors show identification. No Zero Tolerance laws were passed, nor were background checks required of PTA volunteers — all precautions that many American schools instituted in the wake of the Columbine shootings, in 1999. Americans in 1928 — and for the next several generations — continued to send their kids to school without any of these measures. They didn’t even drive them there. How did they maintain the kind of confidence my own knees and heart don’t feel as I write this?

They had a distance that has disappeared. A distance that helped them keep the rarity and unpredictability of the tragedy in perspective, granting them parental peace.

“In 1928, the odds are that if people in this country read about this tragedy, they read it several days later, in place that was hard to get to,” explains Art Markman, author of “Smart Thinking” (Perigee Books, 2012). “You couldn’t hop on a plane and be there in an hour. Michigan? If you were living in South Carolina, it would be a three-day drive. It’s almost another country. You’d think, ‘Those crazy people in Michigan,’ same as if a school blows up in one of the breakaway Republics.”

Time and space create distance. But today, those have compressed to zero. The Connecticut shooting comes into our homes — even our hands — instantly, no matter where we live. We see the shattered parents in real time. The President can barely maintain composure. This sorrow isn’t far away, it’s local for every single one of us.

Once you’ve stepped away from televised news for a while, coming back can be jarring.