Rapamycin was changing brain function rather than rebuilding the brain’s underlying structure

Wednesday, July 29th, 2026

Even mild inflammation in the middle of pregnancy can produce lasting autism-like changes in developing mice:

Reported consequences include autism-like behaviors, unusual brain growth, seizures, and greater sensitivity to ordinary sounds, touch, and other sensory experiences. These effects can continue into adulthood.

In the new study, published in Nature Communications, UCLA scientists found that one dose of rapamycin improved brain communication and behavior in the affected mice in about two hours. That response was far too fast for the drug to have repaired the underlying physical changes in the brain caused by maternal inflammation.

The researchers stressed that rapamycin should not be considered a practical treatment for these symptoms in people. Its benefits were temporary, repeated use can be toxic, and the study was conducted in mice.

[…]

The drug works in part by reducing activity in the mTOR pathway, a biological signaling system that regulates cell growth and proliferation. Excessive mTOR activity has been linked to some autism-related conditions.

[…]

Neurons that had been unusually active began firing more normally. The animals became less vulnerable to seizures. Brain regions that had not been communicating properly shifted toward more typical patterns. Repetitive behaviors, sensory sensitivity, and excessive responses to sensory input also declined.

All of these changes emerged within about two hours. Because physical remodeling of brain synapses generally takes longer, the scientists concluded that rapamycin was changing brain function rather than rebuilding the brain’s underlying structure.

[…]

The strongest effects appeared in excitatory neurons, which stimulate activity in brain networks.

This suggests that the drug rapidly restored a healthier balance in neuronal excitability rather than repairing structural differences formed during early development.

A single twenty-ton fermenter working at full capacity could produce enough spores to fill one missile in one or two days

Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

Biohazard by Ken AlibekKen Alibek explains (in Biohazard) that he was asked how long it would take to “arm” an SS-18 missile with anthrax:

The giant SS-18 missiles, which could carry ten five-hundred-kiloton warheads apiece over a range of six thousand miles, had never been considered before as delivery vehicles for a biological attack.

When the Soviet biological warfare program began in the 1920s, our scientists attached crop sprayers to low-flying planes and hoped that a contrary wind wouldn’t blow the germs the wrong way. After World War II, bombers armed with explosives were added to the arsenal. The Cold War fueled the development of ever more destructive armaments, and by the 1970s we had managed to harness single-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles for use in the delivery of biological agents. Multiple-warhead missiles represented more of a challenge. Few of the agents we had weaponized could be prepared in sufficient quantities to fill hundreds of warheads simultaneously.

[…]

Through a series of tests, I’d found a way to create a more potent anthrax weapon, so that fewer spores would be needed in an attack. The new technique allowed us to load more missiles with anthrax without straining our labs’ resources.

[…]

At least four hundred kilograms of anthrax, prepared in dry form for use as an aerosol, would be required for ten warheads.

Our seed stock for anthrax production was kept inside refrigerated storerooms at three production facilities in Penza, Kurgan, and Stepnogorsk. The seed stock would have to be put through a delicate fermenting process to breed the billions of spores required. The process was complicated—and it took time. A single twenty-ton fermenter working at full capacity could produce enough spores to fill one missile in one or two days. With additives, we could probably boost the output to five hundred or six hundred kilograms a day.

[…]

The colonels looked pleased. Two weeks was not a problem. No one expected to go to war overnight.

[…]

Anthrax takes one to five days to incubate in the body. Victims often won’t know that an anthrax attack has taken place until after they begin to feel the first symptoms. Even then, the nature of the illness will not at first be clear. The earliest signs of trouble—a slight nasal stuffiness, twinges of pain in the joints, fatigue, and a dry, persistent cough—resemble the onset of a cold or flu. To most people, the symptoms will seem too inconsequential to warrant a visit to the doctor.

In this first stage, pulmonary anthrax can be treated with antibiotics. But it would take a highly alert public health system to recognize the evidence of an anthrax attack.

[…]

The first symptoms are followed several days later by the anthrax “eclipse,” a period in which the initial discomfort seems to fade, concealing the approaching danger. Proliferating bacteria will have begun to engulf the lymph nodes, local headquarters of the body’s disease protection system. Within a matter of hours the bacteria will have taken over the entire lymphatic system. From there, they enter the bloodstream, continuing to multiply at a furious pace. Soon they begin to release a toxin that attacks all organs but is particularly damaging to the lungs, filling them with liquid and gradually cutting off their supply of oxygen.

Within twenty-four hours of this toxin’s release, a victim’s skin will begin to turn a faint bluish color. At this stage, every breath becomes more painful than the last. A choking fit and convulsions follow. The end usually comes suddenly: some victims of pulmonary anthrax have been known to die in the middle of a conversation. The disease is fatal in over 90 percent of untreated cases.

A hundred kilograms of anthrax spores would, in optimal atmospheric conditions, kill up to three million people in any of the densely populated metropolitan areas of the United States. A single SS-18 could wipe out the population of a city as large as New York.

Bioweapons are no longer contained within the bipolar world of the Cold War

Sunday, July 26th, 2026

Biohazard by Ken AlibekWhen I saw that Annie Jacobsen’s Biological War was coming out, I decided to revisit Ken Alibek’s Biohazard, which I read soon after 9/11 and the mysterious anthrax attacks — 25 years ago. He opens with his bona fides:

Between 1988 and 1992, I was first deputy chief of Biopreparat, the Soviet state pharmaceutical agency whose primary function was to develop and produce weapons made from the most dangerous viruses, toxins, and bacteria known to man. Biopreparat was the hub of a clandestine empire of research, testing, and manufacturing facilities spread out over more than forty sites in Russia and Kazakhstan. Nearly every important government institution played a role in the Soviet biological weapons program: the Ministry of Defense, the Ministries of Agriculture and Health, the Soviet Academy of Sciences, the Communist Party Central Committee, and, of course, the KGB.

[…]

Over a twenty-year period that began, ironically, with Moscow’s endorsement of the Biological Weapons Convention in 1972, the Soviet Union built the largest and most advanced biological warfare establishment in the world. We were among the 140 signatories of the convention, pledging “not to develop, produce, stockpile or otherwise acquire or retain” biological agents for offensive military purposes. At the same time, through our covert program, we stockpiled hundreds of tons of anthrax and dozens of tons of plague and smallpox near Moscow and other Russian cities for use against the United States and its Western allies.

[…]

Less than a decade ago, I was a much-decorated army colonel, marked out for further promotion in one of the Soviet Union’s most elite military programs. If I had stayed in Russia, I would have been a major general by now, and you would never have heard my name. But in 1992, after seventeen years inside Biopreparat, I resigned from my position and fled with my family to the United States. In numerous debriefing sessions, I provided U.S. officials with their first comprehensive picture of our activities.

[…]

Bioweapons are no longer contained within the bipolar world of the Cold War. They are cheap, easy to make, and easy to use.

He wrote that in 1999.

The tapeworm larvae are just biding their time

Saturday, July 25th, 2026

When Temnothorax nylanderi ant larvae eat woodpecker droppings, they can get infected with the tapeworm Anomotaenia brevis — which brings unusual side-effects:

Infected ants start to change color, becoming pale yellow rather than their usual darker brown. They tend not to grow as big as their nest mates, and even start to smell different — in fact, they seem to emit pheromones that other ants interpret as being from a queen.

Infected ants, meanwhile, lean into their new lifestyle. They ignore their chores, rarely leaving the nest during their extended lifespans while generations of regular workers tend to their every whim.

And throughout all this, the tapeworm larvae are just biding their time. Eventually, a woodpecker may come knocking, and while the healthy ants scatter, the infected ones sit there helpless, providing an easy snack.

Finally, the tapeworm larvae can reach their ultimate goal: the bird’s gut. There, they develop into adult tapeworms, breed, and lay eggs — which are then pooped out by the woodpecker to begin the whole cycle over again.

Their extended lifespans can be 10 times as long as normal.

The UV index is a linear scale

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

When I was a kid, we definitely did not check the UV index before going to the pool:

The scale was developed by Canadian scientists in 1992, and then adopted and standardized by the UN’s World Health Organization and World Meteorological Organization in 1994.

[…]

The UV index is a linear scale that measures the intensity of UV radiation with respect to sunburn. For example, assuming similar spectral power distributions, radiation with a UV index of 12 is twice as intense as radiation at a UV index of 6. For a wide range of timescales, sunburn in response to controlled UV radiation occurs in proportion to the total number of photons delivered, not varying with the intensity or duration of exposure. Therefore, under similar conditions, a person who develops a sunburn after 30 minutes of exposure to UV index 6 radiation would most likely develop a sunburn of similar severity after 15 minutes of exposure to UV index 12 radiation, since it is twice the intensity but half the duration. This linear scale is unlike other common environmental scales such as decibels or the Richter scale, which are logarithmic (the severity multiplies for each step on the scale, growing exponentially).

An index of 0 corresponds to zero UV radiation, as is essentially the case at night. An index of 10 corresponds roughly to midday summer sunlight in the tropics with a clear sky when the UV index was originally designed; now summertime index values in the tens are common for tropical latitudes, mountainous altitudes, areas with ice/water reflectivity and areas with above-average ozone layer depletion.

Consumers begin to view product decisions as expressions of their identity

Sunday, July 19th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinFreedom and choice have proliferated massively, David Epstein explains (in Inside the Box):

Consumer choices alone have multiplied by one hundred million compared to before the Industrial Revolution, an increase that dwarfs the increase in wealth over the same period. Interestingly, when choice sets are large, consumers begin to view product decisions as expressions of their identity, raising the stakes for even trivial decisions. The increase in choice has extended to less easily quantifiable domains, like who to be and how to live. The idea of having too much freedom would have seemed absurd to most people throughout history, but in the last two centuries it has become a central preoccupation for some of humanity’s most profound and influential thinkers.

That modern lineage includes seminal thinkers like Danish philosopher Søren Kierkegaard, who wrote about the “dizziness of freedom”—the anxiety and responsibility of choosing from endless possibilities—and German-born social psychologist Erich Fromm, who described the urge to “escape from freedom” by seeking structure, either productively through meaningful work or destructively through mindless conformity or blind submission to authority.

[…]

“Anomie” comes from an ancient Greek word that means “ruleless-ness.” French sociologist Émile Durkheim, one of the founders of sociology, popularized the term in his book-length investigation of suicide in the late nineteenth century, after several European governments began keeping statistics.

[…]

Unsurprisingly, suicide increased when a nation’s economic fortunes plunged. Surprisingly, it also increased when they soared. Whenever rapid change dislodged social norms and structures, people became more likely to kill themselves. Conversely, when nations came under attack, social norms and community obligations were strengthened, and suicide rates dropped. Researchers have since found that people exposed to war undergo a long-lasting increase in local community involvement and leadership, and in lab experiments demonstrate increased cooperation toward members of their community even years later.

[…]

Anywhere Durkheim looked, in fact, obligation mitigated suicide. People who were married with children were less likely to die by suicide than people who were married without children, who were less likely to die by suicide than people living alone. Durkheim concluded that people require constraints for meaning.

[…]

In the virtual world, Haidt explained, communities are populated by people (or at least avatars) who join easily and, when they don’t like something, quit readily. There are few norms and no social obligations, just a torrent of memes and microdramas played out by a rotating cast. “It’s when you pull away those constraints, that’s what the great rewiring was,” he told me. “It said: Let’s take away all of that real-world anchoring that humans have had since the beginning of the species, just rip it away, and give everyone twenty-five different platforms that will hold them into the virtual world where they can’t possibly develop healthily. It’s not healthy for anyone to have access to everything, everywhere, all the time.”

If the atomized normlessness of virtual life is harmful to development, what, in contrast, is helpful? According to the world’s longest in-depth study of health and happiness: chores.

[…]

Even before total immersion in virtual life became normal, political scientist Robert Putnam famously raised an alarm in his book Bowling Alone that in the US, the constraints of local communities had been steadily dissolving since the 1950s. Civic and community engagement crumbled under the weight of longer commutes, urban and suburban sprawl, and the shift of leisure time from public gatherings to private screens. A 2023 documentary on Putnam’s work is titled Join or Die, in reference to his statement that “your chances of dying over the next year are cut in half by joining one group, cut in three-quarters by joining two groups.”

[…]

Burkeman describes a fascinating piece of research in Sweden, which found a decline in pharmacies dispensing antidepressants when a large portion of the country was on vacation at the same time—and the effect extended to Swedes who were already retired. “They derived psychological benefits not merely from vacation time,” Burkeman wrote, “but from having the same vacation time as other people.” Burkeman paraphrased Terry Hartig, a scientist who conducted that research: “What people need isn’t greater control over their schedules but rather what he calls ‘the social regulation of time’: greater outside pressure to use their time in particular ways.”

Conversely, the Soviet Union at one time had a disastrous policy of assigning many different five-day workweeks (four workdays and a one-day weekend) to keep factories operating at all times. It destroyed social ties by desynchronizing colleagues and families.

Clear boundaries liberated them to experiment

Friday, July 17th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinDavid Epstein shares (in Inside the Box) the story of a famous playground study:

Teachers were directed to take preschool children to local playgrounds that had no designated boundary, and then to playgrounds that had a clear boundary marked by a fence. At the no-boundary playgrounds, the children clustered around their teacher. At the fenced-in playgrounds, the children felt safe to explore, so they left the teacher and roamed widely. Clear boundaries liberated them to experiment.

Unfortunately, in following up on the suggestions to check out that study, I concluded that it doesn’t exist. I traced the story back to an undergraduate project on public spaces that won a student award. That student is now a professor of landscape architecture, and when I asked him about it, he said that he had (understandably) taken the word of two child psychologists about it back in his college days, but had never been able to find an actual study and regretted perpetuating it.

She was delirious with an awful fever

Thursday, July 16th, 2026

By the Shores of Silver Lake by Laura Ingalls WilderIn the fifth book of the Little House series, By the Shores of Silver Lake, Mary Ingalls goes blind due to scarlet fever — but that doesn’t seem to be what really happened:

In the spring of 1879, 14-year-old Mary “was taken suddenly sick with a pain in her head and grew worse quickly. She was delirious with an awful fever. We feared for several days that she would not get well,” Laura wrote. Laura vividly recounted the morning she looked at her sister and saw “one side of her face drawn out of shape.” Their mother Caroline explained Mary had suffered a stroke.

While Mary did slowly regain strength over the following weeks, her vision steadily faded. A doctor delivered the devastating verdict: “The nerves of her eyes had had the worst of the stroke and were dying — nothing could be done.” Charles Ingalls later took Mary to a specialist in Chicago, who confirmed there was no hope of recovery.

[…]

The Pioneer Girl manuscript makes no mention whatsoever of scarlet fever. And in a 1937 letter to her daughter Rose, Laura described Mary’s illness as “spinal meningitis” and “some sort of spinal sickness.” Meanwhile, the pupils’ register at the Iowa College for the Blind, where Mary later studied, listed her cause of blindness plainly as “brain fever.”

After continued analysis, Dr. Tarini published a 2013 study in the journal Pediatrics concluding that the true culprit was almost certainly viral meningoencephalitis — an inflammation of the brain and the membranes surrounding it.

So why blame scarlet fever? Turns out, scarlet fever was a household terror of the era, killing up to 30 percent of the children infected. It was so culturally embedded that it also appeared as a theme in Little Women and Frankenstein.

They have a name for it because it is so incredibly common

Saturday, July 11th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinAfter lauding the brilliance of Dmitri Mendeleev across multiple chapters of Inside the Box, David Epstein admits to keeping something from the reader:

He was not the first person to discover the periodic pattern, nor the second.

Prior to 1860, there were zero periodic tables in history. In nine years following the Karlsruhe conference, where the weights of elements were standardized, there were six. All six arose independently. They differed in appearance, and in details, but all six contained the fundamental insight—that the features of nature’s building blocks change predictably and then reset regularly with increasing weight.

In 1862, a French geologist arranged the elements in a three-dimensional descending spiral, like the stripes on a barber pole. Looking down a vertical column of the spiral showed the pattern. The diagram was complicated, though, so a publisher left it out and the paper was ignored.

In 1863, a British sugar chemist started organizing elements and soon insisted that when elements were ordered by weight their properties reset and repeated every eight places. When he presented his findings in a lecture to the London Chemical Society, he likened it to musical octaves. It was a poetic thought, but led an audience member to treat him like a charlatan and ask if he shouldn’t arrange the elements in alphabetical order instead. He had no academic position, and the Chemical Society declined to publish his work.

In 1864, a prominent English chemist who had attended the Karlsruhe conference drafted a periodic table. He, too, saw the main idea, and unlike the previous two scientists had the professional standing to push it forward. He didn’t, though, perhaps because he considered it merely a classification scheme, and not a law of nature.

In 1867, a Danish immigrant to America and polymath devised a periodic system that looked like a wheel, with elements arranged along spokes radiating out from the center. He was a highly eccentric outsider to chemistry, and the diagram was confusing. His work passed like a ship in the night.

In 1868, a German chemist drafted a periodic table that unlike the others, placed nearly every known element in a system that was both consistent and clear. Like Mendeleev, he was sitting in the room when Stanislao Cannizzaro delivered his argument for standardizing the weights of elements. And, like Mendeleev, he too was writing an intro textbook when he came up with his table. He faced the same constraints as Mendeleev, and produced basically the same table. But a publisher misplaced it and it wasn’t published until years later.

In 1869, Mendeleev published the first version of the table that would eventually hang in every high school science classroom.

[…]

Mendeleev became the “father of the periodic table” because his system was relatively complete, and because his daring predictions of as-yet-undiscovered elements were vindicated. He also wasn’t a chemistry outsider, was only moderately eccentric, made a diagram that was simple to understand, and, to his great fortune, his publisher didn’t lose it or leave it out. Also: Mendeleev really wanted to be known as the discoverer of the periodic law, so he fought for his claim.

Mendeleev won what science historians call a “priority dispute.” They have a name for it because it is so incredibly common.

[…]

Alexander Graham Bell and Elisha Gray filed with the patent office on the same day.

The list of momentous breakthroughs that were independently discovered by multiple people pervades every domain. In astronomy: the discoveries of sunspots and the distance to stars; in math: decimal notation, logarithms, and the principle of least squares (used everywhere from machine learning to medical trials); in chemistry, the discovery of oxygen; in physics, the law of conservation of energy (at least five and arguably twelve co-discoverers); in biology, the theory of infection by microorganisms; and all manner of world-changing practical inventions—photography, the thermometer, the telescope. Isaac Newton and Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz independently invented calculus, leading to the aptly named Newton–Leibniz calculus controversy. (The Newton–Hooke controversy, meanwhile, was over gravity.) Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace independently arrived at the theory of evolution by natural selection. When a stunned Darwin—who had not yet published his findings—read Wallace’s unpublished manuscript, he wrote to his mentor: “I never saw a more striking coincidence.”

[…]

The programmable digital computer was independently invented in three countries in a short span. The transistor was invented by teams in the United States and France within months of each other and enabled our digital age.

[…]

In 1961, Robert Merton, a pioneer of the sociology of science, wrote that “multiple discovery” (which has itself been multiply discovered over generations) is so ubiquitous that “singletons” should be considered the exceptions.

[…]

The lone genius trope was popularized in nineteenth-century England, when the word “creativity” itself was invented. It was part of an intellectual movement that championed humanity’s power to discover the secrets of nature and turn them into practical gains. It was important for progress but also fed the image of the lone, outside-the-box genius, and dovetailed with the era’s so-called cult of the hero.

[…]

If ever there was a paradigm shift, that was it. And yet, none of the pieces of Darwin’s theory of evolution—selection, adaptation, heritability, the struggle for survival, even random changes that are passed down—were entirely new. Several were reasonably common among naturalists who studied plants and animals. Darwin’s own grandfather, Erasmus Darwin, believed that all “warm-blooded animals” had a common origin in the distant past.

[…]

Darwin’s breakthrough came from meticulously compiling available but disparate knowledge into a coherent whole in order to answer pressing questions of his time, like “Why does breeding work so well?” and “Why do we keep finding fossils of creatures that don’t currently exist on Earth?” Darwin kept at least 231 scientific pen pals—from conchologists and ornithologists to gardeners—whom he peppered with questions and questionnaires. He cut up their letters and pasted information into his own notebooks. Darwin learned that breeders already recognized that random hereditary changes occasionally appeared. They even had a word for them: “sports.”

[…]

After he disembarked from the Beagle, Darwin read a popular biography of Adam Smith, the “father of economics,” and considered how order could emerge from competition. As Waller wrote: Darwin’s notebooks “show how deeply he was rooted… in the intellectual trends of the early 1800s.”

Collective intelligence is real

Thursday, July 9th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinDecades of research on group brainstorming have shown, David Epstein explains (in Inside the Box), that it basically doesn’t work:

Participants who have valuable insights stay quiet for fear of looking stupid, or the group simply conforms to the speaker who is the most forceful, or who makes the most money. (This last factor is colloquially known as HiPPO: highest-paid person’s opinion.) Participants in a brainstorming session can also be confused by unclear norms that encourage them to say whatever comes to mind but also not to criticize. Group brainstorming works so poorly in terms of generating novel ideas that “brainwriting” works better, in which individuals write down ideas on their own, submit them anonymously, and only then come together as a group to discuss them. Brainwriting improves on brainstorming in part because it sets rules that ensure more voices and ideas are welcomed.

[…]

The psychologists determined, first, that collective intelligence is real: Teams that did well on one task tended to do well on all, and vice versa. Incredibly, obvious factors like group cohesion, motivation, satisfaction, and the average (or maximum) intelligence of members did not predict team intelligence. But a hallmark of the best teams was that they had relatively equal “conversational turn-taking.” As in Google’s Project Aristotle, that can look messy in practice, with interjections, debates, changes of topic, and swerves from an agenda. But those are signs of healthy and inclusive group norms. Conversely, I once worked under an editor who would copy the entire office on emails when he criticized an idea. It had an immense chilling effect on some younger employees.

Standardization empowered innovation

Sunday, July 5th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinIn the early nineteenth century, David Epstein explains (in Inside the Box), chemists were using different conventions for how they weighed substances, and thus were reporting different weights for the same elements:

The lack of standard practices meant that disagree­ments on fundamental issues pervaded chemistry. A prominent book listed nineteen notations for acetic acid used by different practitioners. Chemists didn’t even agree on the meaning of basic terms like “molecule.” It was a complete morass—for teaching, and for discovery.

In the summer of 1860, a small group of scientists called for an international conference—the first of its kind—to resolve the confusion. It would be held in September in Karlsruhe, Germany. The location was fortuitous. Twenty-six-year-old Mendeleev happened to be studying abroad in Heidelberg, thirty miles away.

[…]

Cannizzaro made a pitch to revive the fifty-year-old idea from one of his countrymen, Amedeo Avogadro, that if you have equal volumes of gas of different substances, and those gases are at the same temperature and pressure, they will contain the same number of molecules. The old idea was correct, Cannizzaro argued. Just as importantly, using it would allow chemists to compare different substances and arrive at consistent weights for the elements that comprised them. The lone other Italian at the meeting passed out copies of a pamphlet Cannizzaro had created. It explained his reasoning and included a list of weights that chemists should be using for common elements.

[…]

Thirty years later, while giving an honorary speech in England, Mendeleev would recall that day. He recounted how disastrously fragmented the field was at that time, but that Cannizzaro “seemed to advocate truth itself.”

[…]

The creation of standard definitions may seem boring compared to the thrill of discovery. But without consistent weights, Mendeleev’s formidable brain would have stood no chance, and nature’s pattern would have remained hidden. Standardization empowered innovation.

It allowed work to communicate across distance, even if the individuals doing it were not themselves in direct communication. In effect, it made the problem-solving team much, much larger. By 1867, when Mendeleev began to write his textbook, he could rely on the knowledge of weights uncovered anywhere in the world. In a certain sense, the new standards empowered him to collaborate with people he didn’t know.

The only option is radiation

Thursday, July 2nd, 2026

Years ago, when I first discovered Winchell Chung’s Atomic Rockets site and its list of common misconceptions about space travel, I was taken off guard by a simple point that’s obvious in retrospect:

Rockets got wings. If your rocket has a multi-megawatt power plant, an absurdly high thrust thermal rocket propulsion system, or directed energy weapons it will need huge heat radiators to purge all the waste heat. Otherwise the rocket will melt or even vaporize. Radiators look like large wings or arrays of panels. The necessity of radiators a real problem for warships since radiators are pathetically vulnerable to hostile weapons fire.

(Also, there ain’t no stealth in space, but that’s less apropos…)

Andrew Cavalier, writing in IEEE Spectrum, argues that orbital data centers are harder than Silicon Valley thinks:

Space is cold, but it also has no atmosphere. That means the best heat-removal mechanisms, conduction and convection, are off the table. The only option is radiation. To prevent a chip from overheating in space, a large, costly surface area is required to dissipate the energy and then radiate it.

Solar energy is abundant, but collecting it with functional solar panels that maintain perfect alignment toward the sun is a complex task requiring extensive attitude control systems. On top of that, ionizing radiation in space from cosmic rays and other sources poses a unique challenge, degrading the solar panels, the radiative coolers, and the chips themselves. Because regular maintenance in space is difficult, redundancy has to be built in at launch, and cost estimates have to account for efficiency degradation over time.

At ABI Research, where I work as an aerospace analyst, we did a rough total-cost-of-ownership comparison between a data center on Earth and one in space. It showed that the cost to launch and run a GPU in space for a year is at least an order of magnitude higher than the same feat in a terrestrial data center. Our model was simple, assuming an Nvidia H100 server rack launched with the requisite-size solar panel and radiator on a spacecraft akin to Starcloud’s pilot launch. We assumed SpaceX’s Starship was used at a highly optimistic launch cost per kilogram of US $44, and a terrestrial energy cost of $0.20 per kilowatt hour. This is a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation, but it does signal something real.

From our perspective, the cost of delivery and space hardening of the payload makes general-purpose space-based data centers difficult to justify economically today, despite the fact that data-center builders in many regions are scrambling for electric power. However, there are niche applications where the much higher costs of computing in space could be justified. Examples include preprocessing data from Earth-observation satellites, real-time detection and tracking of hypersonic missiles, and active collision avoidance in the increasingly crowded low Earth orbit. Even for these, though, contending with fundamental physics will still be a demanding challenge. And a technologically compelling one, too.

[…]

To understand how big this baseline area is in practice, I used the Stefan-Boltzmann law to model the heat-rejection area needed to keep a single chip that draws 700 watts of power—such as the H100 GPU chip, an AI stalwart—at a constant 60 °C, usually considered the sweet spot for GPU longevity and stability. I further assumed that the radiator is perfectly facing deep space, at a chilly background temperature of 3 kelvins. By this calculation, a single chip would require 1.4 square meters of radiator surface.

To put this into perspective, consider that a common AI rack can hold approximately 32 GPUs (four H100 server boards). With CPUs, memory, and networking equipment, this rack would draw around 40 kilowatts of power. This single rack includes 2.5 terabytes of memory—enough capacity to serve over 20,000 concurrent users or run 16 simultaneous instances of Llama 3, an open-source AI model. But to cool this thermal load in a vacuum, that single rack would require an 80-square-meter radiator, roughly the size of a pickleball court. For an aggregate 100-megawatt data center, you’d need at least 2,500 of those radiators.

And that’s the best-case scenario. Additional problems are hidden in the low Earth orbit environment itself. Space exposes radiators and their coatings to a chemically hostile brew of ultraviolet light and atomic oxygen, quite the opposite of a clean-room environment. Over a LEO satellite’s typical 5-year lifespan, these elements degrade the radiator’s surface properties and lower its ability to shed heat.

Including this degradation in the model reveals that as the radiator degrades from a “fresh” state to an “end-of-life” state, the physics demands a further penalty. To maintain that same 60 °C operating temperature for the GPU chips, the required surface area jumps from about 1.4 square meters per chip to nearly 2.0 square meters. In other words, the physics tax rises by 40 percent. Therefore, you must launch at least 40 percent more radiator mass, endure higher atmospheric drag, and sacrifice valuable launch volume just to survive the degradation of the thermal coating. This increase adds significantly to the launch cost and further erodes the economics of a space-based data center.

When Dwarkesh interviewed him, Elon made the point that the availability of energy is the issue:

If you look at electrical output outside of China, everywhere outside of China, it’s more or less flat. It’s maybe a slight increase, but pretty close flat. China has a rapid increase in electrical output. But if you’re putting data centers anywhere except China, where are you going to get your electricity? Especially as you scale.

The output of chips is growing pretty much exponentially, but the output of electricity is flat. So how are you going to turn the chips on? Magical power sources? Magical electricity fairies?

[…]

It’s harder to scale on the ground than it is to scale in space. You’re also going to get about five times the effectiveness of solar panels in space versus the ground, and you don’t need batteries. I almost wore my other shirt, which says, “it’s always sunny in space”. Which it is because you don’t have a day-night cycle, seasonality, clouds, or an atmosphere in space. The atmosphere alone results in about a 30% loss of energy.

So any given solar panel can do about five times more power in space than on the ground. You also avoid the cost of having batteries to carry you through the night. It’s actually much cheaper to do in space. My prediction is that it will be by far the cheapest place to put AI. It will be space in 36 months or less. Maybe 30 months.

Attention is scarce and must be preserved

Wednesday, July 1st, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinThe year before he encountered Gloria Mark’s research on multitasking, David Epstein’s explains (in Inside the Box), he had to get a few stitches in his head:

It was no big deal, just un­comfortable. I was told to move slowly for a few days, ice regularly, refrain from jerking my head, and to sleep sitting upright. All of that was annoying. And yet, after three days I was surprised to find that I was so happy I started tracking what I was doing in a journal to see if I could figure out what was going on. My conclusion: It wasn’t so much what I was doing as what I wasn’t doing. Whether I was reading, working on my computer, or brushing my teeth, I was monotasking.

Not being able to move quickly, or turn my head, had the effect of forcing me to focus on doing one thing at a time, and at a reasonable pace. Despite the temporary discomfort, it was a joy.

[…]

As I was chronicling those days in a journal, I thought about the discomfort of two writers who, in my opinion, are among the best alive: Laura Hillenbrand wrote the universally acclaimed nonfiction works Seabiscuit and Unbroken, and Susanna Clarke wrote the wondrous fantasy novel Piranesi. Both authors have suffered from chronic fatigue syndrome, and both have discussed how that has, at times, forced them to simplify their work routines. When I mentioned this to Cal Newport, the computer scientist and author of Deep Work and Slow Productivity, he told me that Hilary Mantel, another of the foremost writers of a generation (who had recently passed away), “dealt with chronic pain and fatigue, so had no choice but to work slowly and meticulously, creating masterpieces.”

[…]

In a lecture in 1970, Simon said: “In an information-rich world, the wealth of information means a dearth of something else: a scarcity of whatever it is that information consumes. What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.”

Simon explained that as information was becoming easier to gather and transfer, organizations were reflexively using technology to deliver more of it to individuals, even when it exceeded their capacity to attend to it. In theory-of-constraints terms, the information piles up at the bottleneck, which is you and your limited attention. “The design principle that attention is scarce and must be preserved is very different from a principle of ‘the more information the better,’ ” Simon said.

How would we live and work if we prioritized the design principle that attention is scarce? We probably would not check email seventy-seven times a day—the average in one of Mark’s studies—at least on days when focused work is the priority.

[…]

I resolved never to start the day with email, because for me email is an instant gateway to multitasking. And since I can never get through all of it, it will leave attention residue that makes it difficult for me to switch wholeheartedly to my most important work.

[…]

When I make a plan for tomorrow, I now simply put fewer tasks on it. I was underestimating switching costs, as we all do, so I was chronically overestimating what I could actually get done in a day. (This pervasive cognitive bias is known as the planning fallacy.) The result was that I would end up trying to multitask to keep up with the list, which I now realize meant that I both performed worse and took longer. I would then carry over unfinished tasks to the next day’s list. This would proceed until the list became so ridiculous that I would flip it over to avoid the anxiety of seeing it, before eventually realizing it was hopeless and throwing it in the trash. Then the cycle would begin again. Now, at the top of each list is one single thing that, if accomplished, will mean it was a good day.

In an effort to curtail external interruptions, I started using focus mode on my phone to avoid constant notifications. Then I started just leaving my phone off and in another room to try to diminish my self-interruptions. It didn’t immediately make a difference, but pretty soon the internal metronome that prompted me constantly to check various feeds or inboxes slowed to an army crawl. As with email, I cut checking to once or twice a day, and on days when focused work was the priority, only at the end of the day.

[…]

When self-interruptions still inevitably arose—usually related to some reply I’d forgotten to send—I would immediately write them down in a notebook. That cognitive outsourcing prevented unfinished tasks from lingering in my mind.

Finally, I took Mark’s advice to work in intervals. Attention is like a bucket, she told me, and you want to take a break from intense focus before the bucket is filled and you’re exhausted.

[…]

In 2022, scientists showed that hours of concentration leads to a buildup in the brain of the chemical messenger glutamate; too much glutamate is poison to brain cells, so it could be that part of mental fatigue is your brain reducing activity long before that point. Whatever the case, little mind breaks help you recover focus before reaching exhaustion.

These hallucinations can last several days

Sunday, June 28th, 2026

Lanmaoa asiatica is a species of mushroom from Yunnan, China that induces unusual hallucinations:

On this trip, there are none of the heightened colors, breathing or pulsing objects, nor geometrical patterns typically reported by users of psychedelic substances. In fact, the hundreds of people who enter clinics in China’s Yunnan province during each year’s summer mushroom season tend to say their vision is clear and largely unaltered.

Well, aside from one major exception: nearly all users see visions of hundreds to thousands of highly-rendered miniature people, dressed in bright colors like elves, gnomes, clowns or other fairy-like figures. The hallucinated sprites wriggle under doors, dive off spoons into soup bowls and make lewd and mischievous gestures, among other strange behaviors.

These visions are reported by 90% of those who consume a single species of bolete mushroom, called Lanmaoa asiatica, in its raw or undercooked form. Yet despite decades of anecdotal reports, the fantastical claims were dismissed by western scientists as a form of “mushroom madness” — until Colin Domnauer, an undergraduate student taking an optional university module on funguses, caught wind of the rumors.

These hallucinations can last several days.

Studying what, exactly, workers in a knowledge economy do all day

Saturday, June 27th, 2026

Inside the Box by David EpsteinGloria Mark, David Epstein’s explains (in Inside the Box), has been at the forefront of studying what, exactly, workers in a knowledge economy do all day:

Early on, this meant that she and her colleagues were shadowing office workers with stopwatches and logging all of their activity.

[…]

The resulting paper was published in 2004, and for its title she borrowed an emblematic quote from one of the subjects: “Constant, Constant, Multi-tasking Craziness.”

Mark found that the typical office worker switched tasks every three minutes, on average. When her team studied “working spheres”—basically groups of tasks that are connected to the same project—they found that people switched about every twelve minutes and cycled through ten different working spheres per day. Whenever a sphere was interrupted, it took about twenty-five minutes on average to get back to it.

[…]

By 2012, office workers were switching tasks every seventy-five seconds. By 2022, it had stabilized at about every forty-five seconds.

[…]

In simplified form, the shift between tasks actually occurs in two steps: “goal shifting” (switching what you want to do) and then “rule activation” (mentally turning off the rules of one task and on those of another). This takes effort and time, and it is why studies of drivers, in both simulators and the real world, have shown that those having conversations react slowly to hazards, and the impact is the same whether they’re talking on a handheld or hands-free phone.

[…]

Even when people are allowed to switch between tasks at their own discretion, the more they choose to switch, the longer everything takes. As Mark has written: “We find that in real-world work, the more switches in attention a person makes, the lower is their end-of-day assessed productivity.” They also perform worse on important tasks. Multitasking physicians and pilots make more prescribing and in-flight errors, respectively. Famed investor Charlie Munger had it right when he said: “I see these people doing three things at once, and I think, God what a terrible way that is to think.”

[…]

Perhaps the most surprising of Mark’s findings has to do with “self-interruptions.” Self-interruptions are what they sound like: not a phone call or an app notification, but a thought, perhaps about something left undone or what’s happening on social media, that commandeers our attention and leads us to switch goals. Mark found that we are nearly as likely to self-interrupt as we are to be interrupted by some external cue. And here’s the frightening part: We gravitate to a customary level of interruption. If you are disrupted all day, every day by notifications, even if those external triggers magically disappear, you will unconsciously increase your self-interrupting in order to maintain the rhythm of distraction to which you have become accustomed. It is as if we have some sort of internal distraction barometer that, once used to a certain rhythm, will work to maintain it. That is why the mere presence of a smartphone on a desk, or in a pocket—even if it is turned off—has been shown to impair performance on cognitive tests particularly among people who are more phone dependent.

[…]

Background music can have energizing or calming effects that improve performance, but it also has a distracting effect that becomes important when a task is new. Rousing background music has been shown to impair performance among new surgeons learning an unfamiliar task, and a survey of more than two thousand professional software developers found that they tend to turn music off when learning new tools.