Amount of melanin in the iris is correlated with amount of neuromelanin in the central nervous system

Friday, January 16th, 2026

I Have Known the Eyes Already by Morgan WorthyThe amount of a black-brown pigment, eumelanin, in the iris is the main determinant of eye color, Morgan Worthy explains (in I Have Known the Eyes Already):

If there is a high enough concentration of eumelanin, the eye will appear brown. If the concentration is very high, the eye will appear black. If the particles of melanin are very small, a light-scattering effect will cause the iris to appear blue (for the same reason that the sky appears blue). Eye color is also determined by the amount of a yellow-red pigment, pheomelanin, in the iris. There are other factors involved, but that is the basic difference between dark eyes and light eyes. If you like, I can give you a recent article (Borteletti et al. 2003) that discusses various other factors that can influence iris color.

[…]

Amount of melanin in the iris is correlated with amount of melanin in the inner ear (Bonnaccorsi 1965) and with amount or distribution of neuromelanin in the central nervous system (Happy and Collins 1972). In terms of the link to motor behavior, it is perhaps significant that neuromelanin can function as a semiconductor (McGinness et al. 1974). Eye color is polygenic and the specific genetic causes are still being sorted out (Zhu et al. 2004). I just use eye color or eye darkness as a marker variable that is external and easily observed. In fact, eye color was used as a marker variable in many of the early studies of genetics.

The greatest lie that textbooks teach is that the hard part is coming up with an answer

Thursday, January 15th, 2026

How to Solve It by George PolyaSome problems come to us demanding to be solved, John Psmith notes, like an invading army or a looming bankruptcy:

But others we go hunting for because they are economically or intellectually valuable. Or for sport. An entrepreneur and an academic are both a kind of truffle-pig for good problems, and it pays to develop a nose for them. Eventually you learn to notice its spoor, the rank taste in the air, “a problem has passed by this way, moving downwind, two days ago.” One of the many ways school fails us is by actively harming this capacity, it lies and lies to us for decades, teaching us that good problems will be delivered on a silver platter. This is why so many people who do well in school never amount to anything. They never develop a taste for the hunt, never learn that this, actually, is the most important part of the entire site survey: “is this problem worth solving by anybody?”, “am I uniquely well-positioned to solve it?”, “can I amass the resources to solve it?”, “do I have any chance of success?”, “is there some other problem that it is more valuable for me to solve?” The greatest lie that textbooks teach is that the hard part is coming up with an answer. No, the hard part is usually coming up with a worthwhile question.

One is a stalker; the other is a chaser

Wednesday, January 14th, 2026

I Have Known the Eyes Already by Morgan WorthyIf you are out in the yard with your pet, Morgan Worthy explains (in I Have Known the Eyes Already), and it sees a squirrel nearby, what it does next will probably depend on whether your pet is a cat or a dog:

The immediate response of a cat is to freeze, then crouch and start to stalk in preparation for an ambush. The immediate response of most dogs is to run, without delay, toward the squirrel and chase it. One is a stalker; the other is a chaser and uses immediate, direct pursuit. The first responses of cats and most dogs on sighting prey are very different from each other. Only after the prey has come close to the waiting cat or the cat has slowly worked its way close to the prey, does the cat suddenly pounce.

The typical dog makes quick moves; the cat makes sudden moves. Understanding the difference between those two words, quick and sudden, is necessary to understand everything else we will talk about. Quick implies an immediate reaction; sudden implies an abrupt move after some delay. The origins of the two words make this plain. “Quick” means “swift, lively.” “Sudden” means literally “to approach secretly” and comes from two Latin words that mean “secretly” and “to go.” One way to remember it is immediate quick and delayed sudden.

Another way to state this is that one is quick and the other is deliberate. If we can agree that most dogs tend to be quick and most cats tend to be deliberate, we can then move on to differences in eye darkness between the two. The reactivity hypothesis is that dark eyes are associated with quick responses and light eyes are associated with deliberate responses. Using our example, we can predict that dogs are darker-eyed than cats. A simple way to get a measure of eye darkness is to say that only brown eyes and black eyes are considered dark and all others are considered light.

[…]

Dogs tend to be significantly darker-eyed than cats. Of the 27 breeds of domestic cat, none are dark-eyed. They are all in the range of yellow-amber-orange-blue-green. None are at the other end of the scale—black, dark brown, brown—that we are treating as dark-eyed. The same is true for cats in the wild. Look with me here at the database (Worthy 2000, p44). In the wildlife literature we found eye colors for 15 species of cat. All had yellow or yellowish eyes except for one, the Ocelot, and its eyes are reddish brown. So, for 27 breeds of domestic cat and 15 species of cats in the wild, using our 2-point scale of eye darkness, every one of them gets a score of 0.

[…]

Most dogs react to prey by immediately giving chase. One group of dogs, though, employ an initial response to prey that is very much like the initial response of cats. Pointers and setters, like cats, freeze when they first sense prey nearby. Pointers adopt a standing pose and setters crouch. In regards to this initial response, I think any fair observer would grant that pointers and setters are more deliberate or cat-like than are other dogs. If the reactivity hypothesis is correct, those breeds (all are often just referred to as Pointers) should be less likely than other breeds to have dark eyes. That is, indeed, the case. Whereas 70% of other breeds are dark-eyed, only 28% of the pointer or setter breeds are dark-eyed. A difference that large, given the sample sizes, could occur by chance less than one time in a thousand.

[…]

Pointers are bred for “freezing” as first response to prey; hounds are bred to track and chase prey; terriers are bred for not only chasing the prey, but for following it into burrow or den—which requires a high level of persistence and courage. Simon & Shuster’s Guide to Dogs (Pugnetti 1980) uses a symbol to indicate adaptation for each of those three behaviors.

There is a progression. Fifty-five per cent of pointer breeds have yellowish eyes; for hounds, it is only 10%, and there is no breed of terrier that has yellowish eyes. Yellow eyes seem to be associated with hesitation or freezing behavior, which is good for animals that stalk. Hesitation would tend to be a liability for animals that hunt by means of direct pursuit. And that would be especially true for terriers, which are expected to pursue the prey into its den.

[…]

Dark-eyed animals show active courage; light-eyed animals that freeze when predators are near show passive courage.

One of the main things to remember, though, from our talking about cats and dogs, is that predators that depend a lot on freezing, ambush, lying-in-wait, stalking, or any other form of surprise to take prey will not only be light-eyed, but most likely will have yellowish eyes. I know we have only covered three examples so far—domestic cats, cats in the wild, and dogs that point or set—but the same pattern is seen with all classes of land vertebrates. Any type predator that uses surprise to ambush prey (in less than total darkness) tends to have yellowish eyes. That can be noted by anyone who cares to look within various orders or sub-orders of animals: frogs, snakes, lizards, crocodilians, carnivores, primates, raptors, owls, heron-like birds, and various other orders of birds.

No one can deny that statement, but they can ignore it. Given human history, people of good will are now reluctant to acknowledge any evidence that pigmentation can be related to behavior. We seem always to go from one extreme to the other.

[…]

Helen Mahut (1958) did a study in Canada in which she compared ten breeds of dog on response to novel stimuli and categorized the behavior as “fearless” or “fearful,” depending on how bold or inhibited the dogs were in their responses. I no longer remember the particular breeds, but when I checked the eye colors, the most fearless dogs were also the ones with the darkest eyes.

[…]

Asdell (1966) described wolves as being cautious, cowardly and fearful of novel stimuli. They pursue prey in a circling or zigzag manner in order to set up an ambush. That is not direct pursuit as is seen in terriers or weasels. Nor is it as non-reactive as the behavior of cats and pointers. Because wolves are lighter eyed than most dogs it is significant that Asdell also reported that wolf-dog hybrids exhibit “passive defense reactions” more than do most dogs.

This tactic pairs two tanks with continuous drone support

Tuesday, January 13th, 2026

Recent statements from the Russian Ministry of Defense indicate that Russia is adopting a new tank tactic:

This tactic pairs two tanks with continuous drone support. One tank operates from a standoff position to deliver fire, while the second conducts a rapid forward maneuver toward the line of contact. Drones help coordinate movement and fires by providing target detection, fire correction, and battlefield awareness. The two tanks switch roles frequently to avoid becoming stationary targets, while still laying down a significant amount of fire against adversarial lines. This approach emphasizes desynchronizing enemy sensors and strike systems while pushing forward to achieve immediate, decisive penetration.

[…]

Large movements are quickly detected by reconnaissance drones and subsequently targeted. In the urban terrain where many of these units operate, natural bottlenecks are common, such that a single destroyed tank can block movement and bring an assault to a halt. Once immobilized, the remaining tanks become easy targets, as seen during a tank assault near Pokrovsk in early 2025.

[…]

While dismounted assaults have achieved limited penetration into Ukrainian lines, they generally lack the firepower required to hold captured positions. The new tank deployment tactic has the potential to provide this additional firepower, enabling dismounted troops to penetrate more deeply and retain control of seized terrain.

Ukrainian tactics are starting to prevail over Russian infantry assaults

Monday, January 12th, 2026

Russian pro-Kremlin blogger Alexei Chadayev concedes that Ukrainian tactics are starting to prevail over Russian infantry assaults:

The enemy is increasingly mastering the ‘playing second fiddle’ strategy — a situation where Russian forces are constantly advancing almost everywhere, and their task is to make our offensive as difficult, bloody, and resource-intensive as possible. And this is not just about the ‘drone line’ anymore.

For example, we are now seeing tactical techniques like this: their artillery is positioned deep in their battle lines, beyond the reach of our main drones, and they keep their own forward positions and key objects on it well-fortified with well-positioned fire.

Accordingly, as soon as our forces start moving, they knock out an enemy stronghold with drones and go to capture it. The enemy then waits for our forces to enter and eliminates them along with the incoming troops.

Their drone operators, in turn, not only habitually scavenge on supply and reinforcement routes, but also catch our forces engaged in any activity near ‘formerly ours’ objects.

Add to this constant mining, including remote detonation, and the active use of ‘ambushers’ on the few (and well-monitored) logistical lines.

If our forces try to quickly deploy a second echelon – for example, drone operators – the enemy immediately launches a local tactical ‘offensive’ and, even at the cost of losing equipment and personnel, achieves its goal: preserving the ‘kill zone’ between our forward positions and the nearest rear areas. In Kupiansk, for example, they successfully applied this tactic several times – which led to the current situation there.

Since this situation repeats itself not once or twice, our forces, at all levels, are increasingly less willing to advance at all, and they can be easily understood – it’s an inevitable trade-off of kilometers covered for lives, and very valuable lives of soldiers: those who actually know and are able to act in this very kill zone (the untrained ones will simply die without any result). Therefore, the problem of ‘map coloring’ is not just about headquarters’ lies.

It’s also about the difficult moral choice that commanders make: if I really go all out in an unprepared offensive now, I’ll lose many people, but if I just send a few teams forward to plant flags and report on the drone footage about the physical presence at the necessary positions – I’ll save lives and equipment.

However, as a result, this leads to situations where it’s impossible to request strikes on already ‘colored’ (i.e., ‘our own’ on the headquarters’ maps) positions — neither by artillery, nor by the Aerospace Forces, nor even by drones. Everything there is already ours! And as a result, we still have to pay with lives.

Reality becomes input, not a corrective signal

Sunday, January 11th, 2026

Data Republican (small r) argues that late-stage empires do not fail because they are weak or poorly intentioned:

They fail because they become autopoietic.

Autopoiesis is a term from systems theory. It means this: a system responds to reality only through the constraints of its own internal organization.

You’ve almost certainly encountered autopoietic institutions, even if you didn’t have a name for them:

  • A corporation where middle management defines OKRs that have no relationship to customers, yet performance reviews insist everything is “on track.”
  • A bureaucracy that measures success by compliance with procedure rather than outcomes.
  • A late Soviet state in which leadership was reassured by reports everyone knew were false, but which could no longer be contradicted without threatening the system itself.

Autopoietic systems lose the capacity for the environment to redefine their purpose. Inputs still arrive, but they are reinterpreted until they are compatible with the system’s existing outputs. Feedback loops close. Contradictions are absorbed. External signals stop producing corrective changes in internal behavior.

At that point, the system is no longer adaptive relative to its original purpose. It becomes self-referential. It is capable of internally justified expansion without reference to external success.

That’s a long-winded way to explain that none of these institutions were lying in the usual sense. They were maintaining equilibrium.
This is the key point: autopoiesis becomes pathological when stability is prioritized over external correction.

[…]

The current unrest in Minnesota is an example of an order that has reached equilibrium through mutual dependency between antagonistic subsystems.

After the Cold War, the Western world organized itself around a single moral injunction: Never again. Never again fascism. Never again totalitarianism. Never again a unified ideology capable of subordinating it to a single vision of man.

To prevent another Nazi Germany or another Soviet Union, the post–Cold War order built immunity to totalitarian ideologies.

Grand narratives were treated as dangerous. Politics was re-engineered away from totalizing visions and towards norms and institutional mediation.

[…]

Dissent was absorbed into civic infrastructure: NGOs, foundations, advisory boards, grant programs, legal advocacy, compliance regimes, and professionalized activism. Radical energy was translated into careers and metrics.
The result is a structural inversion. The Western order that was constructed to neutralize Communism now depends on its managed presence to generate legitimacy. At the same time, contemporary revolutionary movements depend on the same institutions they once sought to overthrow; for funding, protection, and survival.

[…]

The institutional networks require managed dissent to justify their expansion, funding, and moral authority. The revolutionary networks require institutional cover to survive in a system that would otherwise suppress them. Together, they form a closed loop.
This is not hypocrisy alone, nor betrayal alone, nor even corruption alone. It’s systems logic.

[…]

They form what I call managed antagonism.

  • The revolutionary layer produces instability that forces attention.
  • The institutional layer prevents that instability from becoming existential.
  • The revolutionary layer cannot survive sustained repression.
  • The institutional layer cannot justify its expansion without crisis.

Each makes the other necessary.

No conspiracy is needed; every system selects for actors who can survive within this loop.

[…]

Reality (such as the ICE video that was released today) becomes input, not a corrective signal.

The output is always the same:

  • More NGOs
  • More taxpayer dollars
  • More institutional capture
  • More managed disorder

This is equilibrium.

All enterprise software sellers today speak a common vocabulary, and that vocabulary was invented by John McMahon

Saturday, January 10th, 2026

Qualified Sales Leader by John McMahonIt’s interesting to consider which professions obsess over lineages, John Psmith says:

For instance an academic philosopher and a Brazilian Ju-Jitsu fighter may not have much in common, but they can both tell you not just who their teacher-mentor was, but who that guy’s teacher-mentor was, and so on, sometimes going back centuries.1 This is not true in most fields, but you may be surprised to learn that it is true in B2B enterprise software sales. Talk to a successful sales guy, and he will find a way to slip into the conversation that he came up under so-and-so, and that so-and-so worked for the legendary Mark Cranney (Ben Horowitz’s head of sales). But talk to enough of them, and you will start to notice that a huge proportion of their lineages all converge back on a single guy named John McMahon.

You may never have heard of John McMahon, but he’s one of the most influential people alive today (there are many such people, because the world is fractally interesting). American economic growth is increasingly dominated by a handful of companies that sell software subscriptions at eye-watering margins to other large companies, and most such companies are run by John McMahon’s disciples. All enterprise software sellers today speak a common vocabulary, and that vocabulary was invented by John McMahon. Enterprise software sellers, like all professions, have weird feuds and religious disputes about what exactly the letters in various acronyms should stand for, but the acronyms were invented by John McMahon. The rival factions and schools in enterprise software sales mostly argue about the correct way to interpret John McMahon’s thought, because he is the great teacher and systematizer who laid down the laws of their world.

The reason certain fields care about lineages is that they are dominated by process knowledge that cannot be written down, so the best signal of quality is not some credential, but rather which master you trained under. Imagine how silly it would be to think that you could read a book about martial arts, and then you would know as much as the person who had written it. Some things can only be learned through grueling practice, preferably grueling practice under the observation of somebody who notices all the tiny little indescribable things you get wrong, and shows you how to do them right instead.

[…]

Selling software (really, selling anything) is another such activity. And while John McMahon is the guy who has done the most to change it from an art into a science, he is acutely aware that nothing he writes down in a book can help you unless you already understand the thing that he is trying to say. So like all good religious teachers, he speaks mostly in koans and riddles and parables. It worked for the Zen masters, it worked for Nietzsche, it worked for Jesus Christ, so why wouldn’t it work for John McMahon? The whole book is an extended allegory in which John McMahon is called in to advise a failing software sales team, notices the defects in their technique, and says or does something, at which point they are enlightened.

(Hat tip to Byrne Hobart.)

Yellow-eyed predators use a tactic of wait without moving

Friday, January 9th, 2026

I Have Known the Eyes Already by Morgan WorthyMorgan Worthy, in the opening to his memoir, I Have Known the Eyes Already, explains his hypothesis about eye-color:

One day, probably in early 1971, I was looking through a magazine dealing with (American) professional football. I noticed, once again, that there were many African-American players who had made it to this advanced level of skill and that they were not evenly distributed across all positions. As I neared the end of the magazine, I had the strange, vague, feeling of being reminded of some remote association. I had lingered on this page looking at a photograph of a white player with very light eyes. Then I had my aha moment: earlier in looking at the magazine I had stopped to look at another photograph of a white player with very light eyes, and in both cases the player was a quarterback. Now I recognized, consciously, what had unconsciously caused the vague feeling of remote association. Of course, it might have been a coincidence not worth remembering at all, but then again, I had learned, in military intelligence, to pay attention to even minimal bits of matching information.

Almost at once, I began to wonder if white players at different positions had different levels of average eye darkness and, if so, whether this rank order of positions was positively correlated to the rank order of positions based on percentage of African-Americans playing the position. When I later tested my speculations, the answer was “yes”, on both counts. The two rank orders were positively and significantly correlated and both had quarterbacks at one extreme, with defensive backs at the other.

Defensive backs (especially those playing man-to-man) are much more dependent on immediate, quick reactions than are quarterbacks, who depend more on delayed, sudden reactions. Having already been thinking about the role of quick reactions in sports for several years, I jumped to the potential conclusion (i.e. hypothesis) that dark eyes are associated with the ability to make quick reactions. That started me thinking some more.

It occurred to me that eye darkness (not race or skin color) was the key dimension that could incorporate all the data. I thought in terms of eye darkness rather than eye color because, fortunately, I had been looking at black and white photographs in the magazine.

Also, it occurred to me that eye darkness, as a variable to study scientifically, had the advantage, unlike race, of retaining similar meaning across species. The more I thought about it, the more I thought of eye color, or eye darkness, as potentially important in scientific research.

[…]

A series of studies were done at Penn State University by Daniel Landers and his colleagues to test what has been called the “Worthy reactivity hypothesis.” This is my idea that dark eyes are associated with quick reactions. (The hypothesis is not suggesting anything about you or anyone else as an individual.) After finding the hypothesis confirmed in seven straight studies using laboratory equipment designed to detect small differences in reaction time, they calculated that the chance that dark eyes are not associated with quick reactions is less than one in ten million. I can live with those odds of being wrong.

They demonstrated that the results were not related to differences in skin color. It is an eye-darkness phenomenon. Most of their studies involved comparing brown-eyed Caucasians with blue-eyed Caucasians.

[…]

Partly because the differences between humans were small in absolute terms, I started in the 1970s to collect, mostly from field guides, published information on eye color for different species of land vertebrates. By the time this database, in its final form, was published in 2000, my wife and I had found published information on eye colors for 5,620 species of land vertebrates. Thousands were species of birds, hundreds were species of amphibians, reptiles or mammals. I need to make clear that my reactivity hypothesis is intended, now, to apply only to adult land vertebrates–not children, fish or invertebrates.

After comparing eye color information to behavioral information, it seems to me that the pattern holds across all classes of land vertebrates. One can see this by looking, first, at birds and bats. It is only the darkest-eyed families (mostly comprised of species with black or dark brown iris colors) that specialize in feeding on the wing in an open environment. That behavior is very dependent on speed and quick reactions. At the human level, that is analogous to outfielders in baseball; they, too, must have the speed, quick reactions, and developed skills to catch flies in an open environment.

At the other extreme, lightest-eyed, one finds herons. Their eye colors are mostly not dark at all, but yellowish, as are the eyes of families of frogs, cats, geckos and vipers. (These are the lightest-eyed large families in our database and come from all four classes of land vertebrates.) These animals are all hunters that lie-in-wait or slowly stalk prey before a sudden strike or pounce. All have some form of spring-loaded anatomy, such as folded neck, coiled tongue, or coiled body, that aids in making a sudden strike. At the human level, this is somewhat analogous to a slow-running quarterback in American football who, nevertheless, manages to be successful because of his ability and developed skill to just wait, with cocked arm, in a “pocket” of blockers, until the right moment to make a sudden strike downfield to an open receiver. Waiting, good timing and sudden release are all critical elements in the sequence.

It is easy enough to see in nature that yellow-eyed predators and black-eyed predators differ. Yellow-eyed predators use a tactic of WAIT WITHOUT MOVING. Black-eyed predators, such as those that feed on the wing, rely on a tactic of MOVE WITHOUT WAITING. Animals with eye darkness in the midrange between yellowish colors and dark brown or black (blue, green, gray, orange, red, hazel, light brown, brown) tend not to be skilled hunters, but, rather, rely more on finding immobile food (e.g. fruit, carrion, grubs, grass, eggs, ants, spiders). I have characterized this behavior as self-paced, or CAN WAIT. At least on the timing dimension, this is analogous in human sports to activities that are self-paced, such as pitching in baseball, shooting free throws in basketball, and the sports of golf and bowling.

[Land vertebrates that can hunt in total darkness tend to be dark-eyed and rely heavily on KEEN senses other than vision-such as hearing (e.g. Barn owls), touch (e.g. Boat-billed heron) or smell (e.g. pittas).]

To make sure that I was not “cherry-picking” my observations, I had twenty-one ornithologists make blind ratings of quick-versus-deliberate behavior for large families of birds. Those ratings confirmed that, in birds, controlling for differences in size, light eyes were associated with deliberate behavior and dark eyes were associated with quick behavior. Herons were rated as most deliberate and swifts received the highest ratings for quickness.

It was Purnell who had first advanced the belief that two bombs would end the war

Thursday, January 8th, 2026

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesAdmiral Purnell and General Groves had often discussed the importance of having the second blow follow the first one quickly, as General Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), so that the Japanese would not have time to recover their balance:

It was Purnell who had first advanced the belief that two bombs would end the war, so I knew that with him and Farrell on the ground at Tinian there would be no unnecessary delay in exploiting our first success.

Good weather was predicted for the ninth, with bad weather to follow for the next five days. This increased the urgency of having the first Fat Man ready still another day earlier. When the decision to do so was reached, the scientific staff made it clear that in their opinion the advancement of the date by two full days, from the eleventh to the ninth, would introduce a considerable measure of uncertainty. I decided, however, that we should take the chance; fortunately all went well with the assembly, and the bomb was loaded and fully checked by the evening of August 8.

Six Pumpkin-carrying planes were assigned various targets in Japan for the eighth, but because of weather only two of them reached their primary targets; three of them reached secondary targets, and one aborted and returned to Tinian. In the field order for the second atomic mission there was nothing to indicate the extraordinary nature of the bomb, although anyone reading it would realize that this was by no means a routine assignment.

There were only two targets designated this time: Kokura, primary; and Nagasaki, secondary. Niigata was not made a third target because of its great distance from the other two cities.

[…]

The Kokura arsenal was one of the largest war plants in Japan. It produced many different weapons and pieces of war equipment. It extended over almost two hundred acres and was supported by numerous machine shops, parts factories, electric power plants and the usual utilities.

Nagasaki was one of Japan’s largest shipbuilding and repair centers. It was important also for its production of naval ordnance. It was a major military port. The aiming point was in the city, east of the harbor.

[…]

It was not possible to “safe” the Fat Man by leaving the assembly incomplete prior to take-off, as had been done in the case of the Little Boy. There was considerable discussion among the technical staff about what would happen if the plane crashed, and possibly caught fire, while it was taking off. They realized that there would be a serious chance that a wide area of Tinian would be contaminated if the plutonium were scattered by a minor explosion; some thought that there was even a risk of a high-order nuclear explosion which could do heavy damage throughout the island’s installations. Of course, we had gone into all this at length during our preliminary planning, and on the basis of my own opinion, as well as that of Oppenheimer and my other senior advisers, that the risk was negligible I had decided that the risk would be taken.

As happens so often, however, there was constant interference by various people in matters that lay outside their spheres of responsibility. Throughout the life of the project, vital decisions were reached only after the most careful consideration and discussion with the men I thought were able to offer the soundest advice. Generally, for this operation, they were Oppenheimer, von Neumann, Penney, Parsons and Ramsey. I had also gone over the problems at considerable length with the various groups of senior men at Los Alamos, and had discussed them thoroughly with Conant and Tolman and with Purnell and Farrell and to a lesser degree with Bush. Yet in spite of this, some of the people on Tinian again raised the question of safety at take-off at the last moment. Their fears reached a senior air officer, who asked for a written statement to the effect that it would be entirely safe for the plane to take off with a fully armed bomb. Parsons and Ramsey signed such a statement promptly though with some trepidation, possibly with the thought that if they were proven wrong they would not be there to answer. Ramsey then advised Oppenheimer at once of the various design changes that must be made to ensure that future bombs would in fact be surely safe.

One very serious problem came up just before take-off, which placed Farrell in the difficult position of having to make a decision of vital importance without the benefit of time for thought or consultation. Despite all the care that had been taken with the planes, the carrying plane was found at the last moment to have a defective fuel pump, so that some eight hundred gallons of gasoline could not be pumped to the engines from a bomb bay tank. This meant that not only would the plane have to take off with a short supply of fuel, but it would have to carry the extra weight of those eight hundred gallons all the way from Tinian to Japan and back. The weather was not good, in fact it was far from satisfactory; but it was good enough in LeMay’s opinion, and in view of the importance of dropping the second bomb as quickly as possible, and the prediction that the weather would worsen, Farrell decided that the flight should not be held up. Just before take-off Purnell said to Sweeney, “Young man, do you know how much that bomb cost?” Sweeney replied, “About $ 25 million.” Purnell then cautioned, “See that we get our money’s worth.”

Because of the weather, instead of flying in formation, the planes flew separately. To save fuel, they did not fly over Iwo Jima but went directly to the coast of Japan. Their plan was to rendezvous over the island of Yokushima, but this did not work out. The planes were not in sight of each other during their overwater flight and only one of the observation planes arrived at the rendezvous point. The missing plane apparently circled the entire island instead of one end of it, as it was supposed to do according to Sweeney’s plans. Although Sweeney had identified the one plane that did arrive he did not tell Ashworth. Unfortunately, because it did not come close enough, Ashworth was unable to determine whether it was the instrument-carrying plane, which was essential to the full completion of the mission, or the other, which was not. Sweeney’s orders were to proceed after a short delay of fifteen minutes but he kept waiting hopefully beyond the deadline. The result was a delay of over half an hour before they decided to go on to Kokura, anyway.

At Kokura, they found that visual bombing was not possible, although the weather plane had reported that it should be. Whether this unexpected condition was due to the time lag, or to the difference between an observer looking straight down and a bombardier looking at the target on a slant, was never determined.

After making at least three runs over the city and using up about forty-five minutes, they finally headed for the secondary target, Nagasaki. On the way they computed the gasoline supply very carefully. Ashworth confirmed Sweeney’s determination that it would be possible to make only one bombing run over Nagasaki if they were to reach Okinawa, their alternate landing field. If more than one run had to be made they would have to ditch the plane—they hoped near a rescue submarine.

At Nagasaki, there was a thick overcast and conditions at first seemed no better for visual bombing than at Kokura. Considering the poor visibility and the shortage of gasoline, Ashworth and Sweeney decided that despite their positive orders to the contrary, they had no choice but to attempt radar bombing. Almost the entire bombing run was made by radar; then, at the last moment, a hole in the clouds appeared, permitting visual bombing. Beahan, the bombardier, synchronized on a race track in the valley and released the bomb. Instead of being directed at the original aiming point, however, the bomb was aimed at a point a mile and a half away to the north, up the valley of the Urakami River, where it fell between two large Mitsubishi armament plants and effectively destroyed them both as producers of war materials.

On the way to Okinawa warning ditching orders were announced; but the plane made it with almost no gas left. Sweeney reported there wasn’t enough left to taxi in off the runway.

The Nagasaki bomb was dropped from an altitude of 29,000 feet. Because of the configuration of the terrain around ground zero, the crew felt five distinct shock waves.

The missing observation plane, which fortunately was the one without the instruments, saw the smoke column from a point about a hundred miles away and flew over within observing distance after the explosion. Because of the bad weather conditions at the target, we could not get good photo reconnaissance pictures until almost a week later. They showed 44 per cent of the city destroyed. The difference between the results obtained there and at Hiroshima was due to the unfavorable terrain at Nagasaki, where the ridges and valleys limited the area of greatest destruction to 2.3 miles (north-south axis) by 1.9 miles (east-west axis). The United States Strategic Bombing Survey later estimated the casualties at 35,000 killed and 60,000 injured.

While the blast and the resulting fire inflicted heavy destruction on Nagasaki and its population, the damage was not nearly so heavy as it would have been if the correct aiming point had been used. I was considerably relieved when I got the bombing report, which indicated a smaller number of casualties than we had expected, for by that time I was certain that Japan was through and that the war could not continue for more than a few days.

To exploit the psychological effect of the bombs on the Japanese, we had belatedly arranged for leaflets to be dropped on Japan proclaiming the power of our new weapon and warning that further resistance was useless. The first delivery was made on the ninth, the day of the Nagasaki bombing. The following day General Farrell canceled the drops, when the surrender efforts of the Japanese made any further such missions seem ill-advised.

Microbes may hold the key to brain evolution

Wednesday, January 7th, 2026

In a controlled lab experiment, researchers implanted gut microbes from two large-brain primate species (human and squirrel monkey) and one small-brain primate species (macaque) into microbe-free mice:

Within eight weeks of making changes to the hosts’ microbiomes, they observed that the brains of mice with microbes from small-brain primates were indeed working differently than the brains of mice with microbes from large-brain primates.

In the mice with large-brain primate microbes, the researchers found increased expression of genes associated with energy production and synaptic plasticity, the physical process of learning in the brain. In the mice with smaller-brain primate microbes, there was less expression of these processes.

“What was super interesting is we were able to compare data we had from the brains of the host mice with data from actual macaque and human brains, and to our surprise, many of the patterns we saw in brain gene expression of the mice were the same patterns seen in the actual primates themselves,” Amato said. “In other words, we were able to make the brains of mice look like the brains of the actual primates the microbes came from.”

Another surprising discovery the researchers made was a pattern of gene expression associated with ADHD, schizophrenia, bipolar and autism in the genes of the mice with the microbes from smaller-brain primates.

This was the real feeling of every experienced officer

Tuesday, January 6th, 2026

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesGeneral Marshall expressed his feeling that we should guard against too much gratification over our success, as General Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), because it undoubtedly involved a large number of Japanese casualties:

I replied that I was not thinking so much about those casualties as I was about the men who had made the Bataan death march. When we got into the hall, Arnold slapped me on the back and said, “I am glad you said that — it’s just the way I feel.” I have always thought that this was the real feeling of every experienced officer, particularly those who occupied positions of great responsibility, including General Marshall himself.

Directed Infrared Counter Measures use a sophisticated laser to disrupt the incoming missile’s infrared “heat-seeking” sensor

Monday, January 5th, 2026

Early MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defence Systems) would lock onto the exhaust plumes of aircraft and were countered by deploying flares. Modern Directed Infrared Counter Measures (DIRCM) use a sophisticated laser to disrupt the incoming missile’s infrared “heat-seeking” sensor:

With a laser energy source embedded in a highly agile enclosed turret system, a DIRCM can be infinite in duration and provide protection for the whole mission, keeping aircrews safe even in dense threat engagement environments.

[…]

Whereas flares are omnidirectional, a DIRCM focusses a beam of light directly at an incoming missile. However, that beam of light needs to:

  • Be able to have line of sight to the missile — a DIRCM with a twin or triple turret system allows for multiple threats to be countered simultaneously, no matter how the aircraft may be manoeuvring
  • Be able to track and engage in a very short space of time — MANPADS can be supersonic in less than a second after firing
  • Emit significant laser energy power to disrupt the missile seeker for long enough so the missile is unable to acquire, re-acquire or track the aircraft

Not so blinding as New Mexico test because of bright sunlight

Sunday, January 4th, 2026

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. Groves At about 4:30 a.m. the Duty Officer delivered General Groves the detailed hoped-for cable from Farrell, as Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), which had been dispatched after the bomber returned to Tinian. It read:

Following additional information furnished by Parsons, crews, and observers on return to Tinian at 060500Z. Report delayed until information could be assembled at interrogation of crews and observers. Present at interrogation were Spaatz, Giles, Twining, and Davies.

Confirmed neither fighter or flak attack and one tenth cloud cover with large open hole directly over target. High speed camera reports excellent record obtained. Other observing aircraft also anticipates good records although films not yet processed. Reconnaissance aircraft taking post-strike photographs have not yet returned.

Sound—None appreciable observed.

Flash—Not so blinding as New Mexico test because of bright sunlight. First there was a ball of fire changing in a few seconds to purple clouds and flames boiling and swirling upward. Flash observed just after airplane rolled out of turn. All agreed light was intensely bright and white cloud rose faster than New Mexico test, reaching thirty thousand feet in minutes it was one-third greater diameter.

It mushroomed at the top, broke away from column and the column mushroomed again. Cloud was most turbulent. It went at least to forty thousand feet. Flattening across its top at this level. It was observed from combat airplane three hundred sixty-three nautical miles away with airplane at twenty-five thousand feet. Observation was then limited by haze and not curvature of the earth.

Blast—There were two distinct shocks felt in combat airplane similar in intensity to close flak bursts. Entire city except outermost ends of dock areas was covered with a dark grey dust layer which joined the cloud column. It was extremely turbulent with flashes of fire visible in the dust. Estimated diameter of this dust layer is at least three miles. One observer stated it looked as though whole town was being torn apart with columns of dust rising out of valleys approaching the town. Due to dust visual observation of structural damage could not be made.

The Trump administration has long accused Maduro of running a criminal narco-trafficking organization called Cartel de los Soles

Saturday, January 3rd, 2026

The U.S. is one of many Western countries who see Maduro’s government as illegitimate, citing widespread fraud in the 2024 election:

The Trump administration has long accused Maduro of running a criminal narco-trafficking organization called Cartel de los Soles, which experts say is shorthand for a system of corruption rather than a single hierarchical group. The U.S. declared it a foreign terrorist organization in November.

On Saturday, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi said Maduro, Flores, and senior Venezuelan face charges related to alleged “drug trafficking and narco-terrorism conspiracies,” according to an unsealed indictment Bondi posted on X.

The indictment alleges that, starting in 1999, Maduro and others partnered with international drug trafficking organizations to transport thousands of tons of cocaine into the United States.

[…]

The Trump administration claims that Venezuela “stole” oil and assets from the U.S., after its government nationalized them in the late 1990s, which Maduro’s government denies.

Last month, Trump ordered a blockade against Venezuelan oil and sanctioned tankers. And on Saturday morning, Vice President JD Vance tweeted that Trump had been clear to Maduro: “the drug trafficking must stop, and the stolen oil must be returned to the United States.”

[…]

“We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country,” Trump said. “The biggest beneficiary are going to be the people of Venezuela.”

Despite Trump’s announcement that Vice President Rodríguez has been sworn in, it’s unclear who will take over Maduro’s duties long term.

“I’m not sure there’s going to be a power vacuum, because so many of his cronies apparently were left behind,” Todd Robinson, former acting U.S. ambassador to Venezuela during President Trump’s first term, told NPR.

“There are a lot of questions about what exactly is left behind now, and what more the United States is willing to do to ensure that a potential legitimate person takes over,” Robinson added.

Trump on Saturday did not outline a clear plan on next steps but said that the U.S. will run Venezuela until a “proper transition can take place.”

“We’re going to run the country right. It’s going to be run very judiciously, very fairly,” he said during Saturday’s press conference after Maduro was captured.

Visible effects greater than New Mexico tests

Friday, January 2nd, 2026

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesAugust 1, 1945 came and passed, General Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), and the weather was not favorable over Japan. General LeMay did not think that it would be wise to undertake the mission under those conditions:

The six crews that might be used were given special instructions on the procedures they were to follow, and at another briefing on August 4, Parsons explained the effects they could expect when the bomb exploded. Most of them knew by now that they were dealing with a special type of bomb, but Parsons’ statement that the force of the explosion would be equivalent to that of twenty thousand tons of TNT came as a complete surprise.

During the period of waiting, the special air-sea rescue plans were settled. They emphasized that no other aircraft would be permitted within fifty miles of the target during a period of from four hours before until six hours after strike time. Not even for rescue operations would this restriction be lifted. Special air-sea rescue facilities were to be provided by both Army and Navy planes and by submarines, and in spite of the necessary restrictions we had placed upon it, rescue coverage in this operation would be far better than average.

[…]

Other air attacks on Japan were to be carried out on the same day as our mission, to divert any Japanese defense actions that might endanger our operation. Hiroshima would be the primary target, with Kokura Arsenal and Kokura the secondary targets, and Nagasaki the tertiary target. The aiming point for Hiroshima was close to the Japanese Army Headquarters.

Hiroshima was a highly important military objective. The Army Headquarters was located in a castle. Some 25,000 troops were in its garrison. It was the port through which all supplies and communications passed from Honshu to Kyushu. It was the largest city, excepting Kyoto, that was still undamaged by American air raids. Its population was believed to be over 300,000, and it was a beehive of war industry, carried on in moderate-sized plants and in small shops as well as in almost every home.

We would use a total of seven planes. One would be sent to Iwo Jima to serve as a spare in case the bomb-carrying plane developed mechanical troubles on the flight from Tinian. Three planes would go ahead, one to each target area, to appraise the local weather and to relay the information back to the bomb-carrying plane, which would be accompanied by two observer planes to the general vicinity of the target. One of these carried special measuring and recording instruments, including some that would be dropped near the target to radio back their readings.

Radar was to be used as an aid but the actual bombing was to be accomplished visually. If this proved to be impossible, the bomb was to be brought back, probably to Iwo Jima, as the plane’s gas supply might not permit the return to Tinian. We were anxious to avoid having it come down at other air bases, for in case of a landing accident we wanted personnel on the ground who would be aware of the special precautions that would have to be taken.

[…]

Provisions were also made for the strike photographs to be taken by the 3rd Photo Reconnaissance Squadron and two photo crews were briefed on their assignment by the 509th’s intelligence officers.

[…]

Parsons had decided with Farrell’s approval to complete the final assembly of the bomb after takeoff. His purpose was to minimize the hazards of a crash on Tinian. I had previously said that I was opposed to this as unwise, because it was unnecessary and because it would be very difficult to do it in cramped conditions in the plane. I was not informed of the plan until it was too late to interfere.

[…]

The original scheduled time was 0915. Thus, in a flight of some seventeen hundred miles taking six hours and a half, Colonel Tibbets had arrived on target only one-half of a minute off schedule.

The 20th Air Force order covering the operation prescribed a turn of 150° after the bomb was released in order to gain a maximum distance from the point of explosion; such a turn, our studies indicated, could be made without undue risk to the plane and its crew.

Immediately after the bomb was dropped from 31,600 feet, the plane began its getaway maneuver. The flash was seen during this turn and fifty seconds after the drop, the shock waves hit the plane. There were two of these, the first the direct shock wave and the second the reflected wave from the ground. By that time the plane was fifteen miles away from the burst.

[…]

The crews of the strike and the two observation aircraft reported that five minutes after release a dark gray cloud of some three miles in diameter hung over the center of Hiroshima. Out of the center of this grew a column of white smoke which rose to a height of 35,000 feet, with the top of the cloud being considerably enlarged.

Four hours after the strike, the photo reconnaissance planes found that most of the city of Hiroshima was still obscured by the smoke cloud, although fires could be seen around its edges.

[…]

Pictures taken the following day showed that 60 per cent of the city was destroyed.

The area devastated at Hiroshima was 1.7 square miles, extending out a mile from ground zero. The Japanese authorities estimated the casualties at 71,000 dead and missing and 68,000 injured.

The most important result achieved by the Hiroshima bombing was not the physical damage, although over 50 per cent of the buildings were totally destroyed, nor was it the fifteen to twenty thousand Japanese soldiers who were killed or severely wounded, nor was it the thousands of other people killed and injured. The important result, and the one that we sought, was that it brought home to the Japanese leaders the utter hopelessness of their position. When this fact was re-emphasized by the Nagasaki bombing, they were convinced that they must surrender at once.

Parsons reported (in special one-time code, of course):

Results clearcut, successful in all respects. Visible effects greater than New Mexico tests. Conditions normal in airplane following delivery.

Received at the same time was this message relayed from the plane:

Target at Hiroshima attacked visually. One-tenth cloud at 052315Z. 3 No fighters and no flak.