While the United States is largely immune to extrahemispheric invasion, Peter Zeihan notes (in The Accidental Superpower), there are any number of potential routes that the Americans could — and during World War II did — use to invade Europe and Asia:
By the end of the war the Americans had not only extensively used launching points such as Iceland, Sicily, and Great Britain, but the postwar NATO alliance brought islands like Zealand, the Azores, Cyprus, and the Faroes into the American defense network.
Asia’s sea approaches are even more favorable to the Americans. Off the East Asian coast are not simply a series of archipelagoes, but a series of well-established, populous nations: Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. All, like the United Kingdom, are full-on powers in their own right. What do they have in common? A fear that another regional power might one day be powerful enough to end them. In the past this has made them hostile to Japan (and friendly to the United States), and in the present this has made them hostile to China (and friendly to the United States). As of 2014 all — including Japan — are allies.
What happens when China swallows up Taiwan with hardly a hiccup? Seriously.
“China swallows up Taiwan with hardly a hiccup”
That’s a loaded question; reasonable critics would deny your implicit premises. You are an expert on various things, Jim, but I don’t think you know as much as Taiwan’s military situation as you think you do.
If the PRC were to try to swallow Taiwan and fails, there would be many disruptions. Even if the PRC were to succeed, there would be disruptions.
Back in January, Lai, the DPP candidate for president, won the presidency with only 40% of the vote, and the party lost its majority in parliament. So, the independence movement lost ground.
Despite the attempts of US neocons to foment a war with China, time is on China’s side. Every passing year the US is weaker in all areas, including patriotism, and China is stronger. And these trends are not merely relative, they are absolute. So China can afford to wait us out.
Thanks, Gaikokumaniakku, sincerely.
Obviously, I make no claim to military expertise. I don’t know much about war.
I do know a little about force and distance. Taiwan is a small island of twenty-three million located eighty miles off the coast of China and seven thousand miles off the coast of California. Thus, the U.S. military’s supply lines will be at least ninety times longer than China’s in any protracted conflict.
Here is a rough analogy: imagine if Red China were occupying the Bahamas—or Nantucket—and had built the world’s most important factory there.
It would be a national obsession, that I can tell you.
Bob Sykes said, “Lai, the DPP candidate for president, won the presidency with only 40% of the vote, and the party lost its majority in parliament. So, the independence movement lost ground.”
The Taiwanese people do not need to “declare independence.” The Republic of China has been a de facto country longer than the PRC has existed. Taiwan needs strong operational industrial connections, such as European countries that depend on cooperation with Taiwan. It already has some such connections. These industrial connections would mostly not survive a war with or a surrender to Beijing. Thus even if 98% of Taiwanese suddenly became cowards and surrendered to the PRC, delivery of crucial products — notably semiconductor products — would be gravely disrupted. The KMT/DPP imbroglio is not reported well even inside Taiwan. Don’t trust the media to give you an accurate picture of Taiwanese internal politics.
“Every passing year the US is weaker in all areas, including patriotism, and China is stronger.”
The US has been a basket case under Biden, but the PRC is more of a decadent empire than a thriving nation. Time can weaken the PRC as well as the US. Unfortunately time can weaken all civilized countries until fertility rates go back over 2.1 per woman.
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I do respect Jim’s expertise in many areas, and I am thankful he is humble enough to keep an open mind. I only regret that I am busy with other affairs and I cannot start a separate blog to explain Taiwan better to the outside world.
“Taiwan is a small island of twenty-three million located eighty miles off the coast of China and seven thousand miles off the coast of California. Thus, the U.S. military’s supply lines will be at least ninety times longer than China’s in any protracted conflict.”
Yes, the situation has definite logistical challenges. Complacency is to be avoided. Perhaps at some point I might get collaborators with actual military expertise to help me blog about some of these issues.
I have nothing against the legitimate government of the Han, and I am disturbed by the International Clique’s use of U.S. power to launch the Chinese Communist Party to hegemony, but it remains a fact that Mainland China is sixty-two times more massive than Taiwan. Numbers matter.
Then it made England friendly to the United States. Then it made France friendly to the United States. Then it made Finland friendly to the United States. And then Canada and Mexico… uh… wait…
Nevermind, «As of 2014 all — including Japan — are allies».
And if you boosted a washing machine to spin as hard as the author spins this, it would be able to turn yarn into millinery felt. :]