Nevermind, «As of 2014 all — including Japan — are allies».

And if you boosted a washing machine to spin as hard as the author spins this, it would be able to turn yarn into millinery felt. :]

The Taiwanese people do not need to “declare independence.” The Republic of China has been a de facto country longer than the PRC has existed. Taiwan needs strong operational industrial connections, such as European countries that depend on cooperation with Taiwan. It already has some such connections. These industrial connections would mostly not survive a war with or a surrender to Beijing. Thus even if 98% of Taiwanese suddenly became cowards and surrendered to the PRC, delivery of crucial products — notably semiconductor products — would be gravely disrupted. The KMT/DPP imbroglio is not reported well even inside Taiwan. Don’t trust the media to give you an accurate picture of Taiwanese internal politics.

“Every passing year the US is weaker in all areas, including patriotism, and China is stronger.”

The US has been a basket case under Biden, but the PRC is more of a decadent empire than a thriving nation. Time can weaken the PRC as well as the US. Unfortunately time can weaken all civilized countries until fertility rates go back over 2.1 per woman.

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I do respect Jim’s expertise in many areas, and I am thankful he is humble enough to keep an open mind. I only regret that I am busy with other affairs and I cannot start a separate blog to explain Taiwan better to the outside world.

“Taiwan is a small island of twenty-three million located eighty miles off the coast of China and seven thousand miles off the coast of California. Thus, the U.S. military’s supply lines will be at least ninety times longer than China’s in any protracted conflict.”

Yes, the situation has definite logistical challenges. Complacency is to be avoided. Perhaps at some point I might get collaborators with actual military expertise to help me blog about some of these issues.

Obviously, I make no claim to military expertise. I don’t know much about war.

I do know a little about force and distance. Taiwan is a small island of twenty-three million located eighty miles off the coast of China and seven thousand miles off the coast of California. Thus, the U.S. military’s supply lines will be at least ninety times longer than China’s in any protracted conflict.

Here is a rough analogy: imagine if Red China were occupying the Bahamas—or Nantucket—and had built the world’s most important factory there.

It would be a national obsession, that I can tell you.

Despite the attempts of US neocons to foment a war with China, time is on China’s side. Every passing year the US is weaker in all areas, including patriotism, and China is stronger. And these trends are not merely relative, they are absolute. So China can afford to wait us out.

That’s a loaded question; reasonable critics would deny your implicit premises. You are an expert on various things, Jim, but I don’t think you know as much as Taiwan’s military situation as you think you do.

If the PRC were to try to swallow Taiwan and fails, there would be many disruptions. Even if the PRC were to succeed, there would be disruptions.