All of these factors are strong predictors of change in military technology

Thursday, September 18th, 2025

Peter Turchin and his colleagues ask, What have been the causes and consequences of technological evolution in world history?

Many have argued that the evolution of military technologies is just one aspect of a much broader pattern of technological evolution driven by increasing size and interconnectedness among human societies. Several cultural evolutionary theories, conversely, highlight military technologies as a special case, arguing that steep improvements in both offensive and defensive capabilities of technologies along with accompanying tactical and organizational innovations resulted in “Military Revolutions” (note the plural), which in turn had major ramifications on the rise and, of particular concern here, the spread of state formations globally and the evolution of religion and other cultural phenomena.

[…]

We empirically test previously speculative theories that proposed world population size, connectivity between geographical areas of innovation and adoption, and critical enabling technological advances, such as iron metallurgy and horse riding, as central drivers of military technological evolution. We find that all of these factors are strong predictors of change in military technology, whereas state-level factors such as polity population, territorial size, or governance sophistication play no major role.

The Barrett SSRS is a recoil-operated, magazine-fed, semi-automatic rifle chambered in 30×42 mm

Wednesday, September 17th, 2025

During DSEI UK 2025 in London, Barrett Firearms introduced its 30mm Squad Support Rifle System (SSRS). developed in cooperation with Mars Inc., to the public outside the US:

The weapon recently won the U.S. Army’s xTech Soldier Lethality Competition and secured USD 2 million in funding, confirming its relevance in the ongoing Precision Grenadier System (PGS) program.

[…]

The Barrett SSRS is a recoil-operated, magazine-fed, semi-automatic rifle chambered in 30×42 mm. The system is compact and ergonomic, with an overall length of 861 mm and a 305 mm barrel, while its weight remains approximately 6.3 kg with the integrated fire control system. Feeding from five-round detachable magazines, the SSRS provides dismounted units with the ability to engage targets up to 500 meters in less than three seconds, offering a much flatter trajectory than traditional 40×46 mm low-velocity grenades. With an effective range greater than most current squad-level grenade launchers, it enhances both precision and lethality in medium-range engagements.

A distinctive feature of the system is its advanced Direct Fire Control – Precision Targeting (DFC-PT) unit, developed by Precision Targeting LLC. This electro-optical fire control system integrates a laser rangefinder, ballistic solver, environmental sensors, and a disturbed reticle, significantly improving first-round hit probability. The SSRS is also designed for compatibility with remote weapon stations, expanding its application beyond individual infantry use to vehicle-mounted platforms.

Development has been rapid. Within eleven months, Barrett and Mars Inc. designed, built, and tested the SSRS, demonstrating its effectiveness under the U.S. Army’s Precision Grenadier System requirement. This achievement led to its recognition as the winner of the Army’s Soldier Lethality Competition in May 2025. Ammunition developed by Amtec Corp. further broadens its operational spectrum, with multiple natures including High Explosive Dual Purpose (HEDP), Close Quarters Battle (CQB), anti-drone rounds, and training practice slugs. This variety makes the weapon adaptable to both urban combat and counter-drone operations, two of the most pressing challenges on today’s battlefields.

We’ve discussed the SSRS before.

What can be seen can be destroyed, so don’t be seen

Tuesday, September 16th, 2025

Littoral Commander BalticAs NATO prepares for a potential Russian invasion of the Baltic region, planners wonder how drones, hypersonic missiles, and modern kill chains might play out there. A new tabletop game, Littoral Commander: The Baltic, offers answers:

The game depicts a Russian invasion of the Baltic region around 2030. In addition to the Baltic states, the 11 scenarios in the game include a Russian landing to seize the Swedish island of Gotland, an offensive launched from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and missile-equipped U.S. Marines attempting to stop Russian warships from breaking out of the Baltic to hunt convoys in the Atlantic. There is even a humanitarian scenario where the U.S. has to evacuate civilians while Russia tries to disrupt the operation.

[…]

Platoons — represented by cardboard pieces on the map — are rated for firepower, range and speed. The American forces include a plethora of types: Marine infantry, amphibious combat vehicles, Army HIMARS rockets, M1 Abrams tanks, Stryker armored reconnaissance vehicles, Typhon long-range missiles, air defense and logistics units, as well as U.S. Navy destroyers and amphibious assault ships. Russian forces include naval infantry, T-90 tanks, self-propelled howitzers, mortars and multiple rocket launchers, paratroopers and airborne artillery, air defense and logistics, plus cruisers, destroyers, frigates and amphibious ships.

However, the heart of the game are the 277 “Joint Capability” cards, an abstract representation of the myriad force multipliers available to modern armies. By spending a limited pool of “Command Points” to buy cards from either a U.S. or Russian card deck, each side assembles a customized array of support forces. Players can choose from a wide variety of capabilities, including B-52 and Tu-22 bomber strikes, naval gunfire, special forces raids, drone strikes, laser air defenses, cyber warfare, psyops and electronic warfare (there’s even a “Public Affairs Officer” card).

“The cards feature a wide range of future, near-future and present-day capabilities to allow players to experiment and explore what capabilities can contribute to different scenarios,” Sebastian Bae, designer of “Littoral Commander,” told Defense News.

[…]

The key to winning “Littoral Commander” can be summed as: “What can be seen can be destroyed, so don’t be seen.” The fog of war always hovers over the game, with combat units on the map flipped upside down, so the enemy doesn’t know whether they are an infantry unit, an artillery battery, a frigate — or just a decoy.

“Littoral Commander” resembles a game of hide-and-seek. Both sides use ground troops and reconnaissance assets to detect and identify enemy forces, while trying to screen friendly forces from enemy detection. Once an enemy unit is located, it can be targeted by long-range fires such as artillery, missiles, aircraft and drones. Meanwhile, the target attempts to break contact and become concealed again.

[…]

Compounding the problem is that the U.S. and Russian forces have limited stockpiles of guided munitions, such as artillery shells, cruise missiles and — perhaps most importantly — air and missile defense interceptors. This puts a premium on judicious target selection.
And if battlefield problems aren’t enough, “Littoral Commander” players must also deal with public opinion. The game includes an “Influence Meter” that awards players additional resources for destroying enemy units and capturing key terrain — or rewards the enemy if you bombard urban areas (this is where the PAO card comes in handy).

“Littoral Commander: The Baltic” is actually the second game in the series, following “Littoral Commander: Indo Pacific,” which covered a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan and the Philippines. The games have been used by U.S. military staff colleges, U.S. Marine tactical units, the British and Australian armies, the Bundeswehr, the Philippines Marine Corps and others.

The world’s largest illegal sports streaming platform was raided in the Giza Governorate of Egypt

Sunday, September 14th, 2025

Streameast, the world’s largest illegal sports streaming platform, with 1.6 billion views over the last year, has been shut down after a global collaboration between Europol, the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, and National Intellectual Property Rights Coordination Centre:

Last weekend’s raid in the Giza Governorate of Egypt led to two arrests and the seizure of laptops, smartphones, cash, credit cards, crypto, real estate properties, and evidence of a money-laundering network.

Face to Face with Death in Mosul

Friday, September 5th, 2025

Matt Larsen shares the story of Staff Sergeant Paul McCully finding himself face to face with death in Mosul:

I wasn’t sure what had happened, I just knew I was laid out on my stomach, and I couldn’t feel my hands or legs. I could hear Owens screaming, and I was checking myself to see if I was physically intact when another explosion went off, a hand grenade, but it wasn’t as loud as the first one. I felt the shrapnel impact my helmet but was still in a daze and confused as to what was going on. Then I felt something that seemed to be tapping my helmet and everything sounded muffled. My initial thought was that it was my guys pulling me out of there, but when I looked up, everything came back to me, sound, reality, cleared vision. There was a bad guy standing over me.

I was looking up at him and expecting him to unload his AK47 on me, but he was screaming and butt-stroking me in the head. The second I realized that it wasn’t my guys, I got up as fast as I could and grabbed his AK muzzle with my right hand and his shirt on his right shoulder with my left hand. I don’t even remember placing my hands on the ground to push myself up; it just seemed like I floated up, that’s how fast it happened.

After I grabbed him and his weapon, I was jerking it in an outward motion but making sure to keep the muzzle away from me. After what seemed to be two or three seconds, I got the AK out of his hands and on the ground to the right of me a couple of feet. I had finally jerked it free, and it went flying. He tried to dive for the AK, but I grabbed him and went to the Thai clinch with him to control him. A Thai clinch is when you control a person’s upper body by placing both your hands behind his neck. Our bodies were close together; I had his hair in my right hand, pushing his head down, and my left hand was controlling his left shoulder. I immediately started throwing right uppercuts and knees to [mess] him up. I did that because I thought that there were more of my own guys behind me, but it turns out that Owens and I were the only ones to make it outside before the initial explosion. The No. 3 and No. 4 men got blown back into the building.

After I threw the blows, I held on to him with the shirt and hair and extended my arms to allow the guys who I thought were behind me to have a clear shot. But that never happened. It seemed like I was alone, and nobody was there to help me. He was screaming “Allahu akbar” and I was yelling “Fuck You” and continued to hit him as he was struggling to get to his weapon. Owens came running up to me with his pistol drawn. He had lost his M4 rifle in the blast also, so he pulled his M9 pistol.

He came up to my right side, right next to me so he wouldn’t shoot me in the struggle. Right as he fired one shot into the enemy’s stomach, the enemy had reached up and grabbed Owen’s pistol. At that moment I let go and took a step back and secured my M4. Owens had swung him around to the left, which put him right in front of me.

With Owens and the bad guy fighting for Owen’s M9, I put the barrel of my rifle in the bad guy’s right side, point-blank, right underneath his armpit, and fired a single shot. He squealed like a pig and hit the ground like a sack of shit, landing on his back. I immediately placed the barrel of my rifle in his face and fired ten shots to finish him. All of this happened within a matter of about 20 seconds, but seemed like forever.

The modern battlefield requires split-second decision-making, seamless coordination among distributed teams, and processing vast amounts of information, all under extreme pressure

Thursday, September 4th, 2025

The modern battlefield requires split-second decision-making, seamless coordination among distributed teams, and processing vast amounts of information, all under extreme pressure:

As I have learned over the last year, as an advisor to August Interactive, a gaming studio, these are exactly the skills that well-designed military gaming programs can develop and refine.

Unlike traditional military wargaming — which typically involves structured, turn-based exercises on maps or models to explore campaign plans and strategic concepts — the gaming discussed here draws heavily on digital interactive platforms, including modified commercial titles and purpose-built military simulations. These environments — ranging from real-time strategy games to tactical shooters, flight simulators, and cyber-themed games — emphasize rapid continuous decision-making, high-pressure coordination, and immersive skill development. While both approaches aim to sharpen judgment and prepare leaders for complex scenarios, this form of military gaming leverages the speed, interactivity, and scale of modern gaming technology to cultivate competencies that are difficult to replicate in traditional wargaming formats. And they are also more engaging and fun, which is a good thing.

The U.S. military should formally embrace and invest in advanced digital gaming as a core training tool, leveraging its ability to build critical cognitive, coordination, and technical skills for modern warfare.

[…]

I visited the gaming center at West Point last spring. I was impressed with the setup and technological capabilities, but I was even more impressed by the insights shared with me by combat-experienced officers and non-commissioned officers overseeing the program. The positive impact on cadet leadership development was remarkable: improved communication skills, quicker decision-making, and faster adaptability to change. Notably, many intercollegiate athletes there are involved in military gaming.

Should we have kept the American Empire?

Tuesday, September 2nd, 2025

Should we have kept the American Empire?, Max Tabarrok asks:

Note that the question of whether the US should have relinquished its maximum territorial extent is different than the one facing America in 1865 or the question of expanding American borders today. There, you have to consider the substantial costs of actually conquering territory in war. Holding on to land already conquered is less costly than conquering anew.

[…]

The first thing to notice when considering this question is that America did not actually give up all of its imperial conquests. Hawaii, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, a smattering of pacific islands, Alaska, and arguably even much of the American Southwest are spoils of conquest or purchase.

No one seriously considers giving up any of the pieces of our imperial history that we kept. The Hawaiian independence movement is perhaps the most popular, but that sets a low upper bound. This acceptance of the pieces of empire we retained suggests that if we had kept more of our 1918 peak territory, people would accept those additional pieces just as easily today.

Reluctance to give up what we kept isn’t just status quo bias. The economic performance of the states and territories still within the US compared to the nations we once controlled but are independent today is evidence that American annexation has large positive effects.

[…]

Integration under the same national umbrella seems like about the only way to sustain and spread free trade and immigration. The US can’t even manage it with Canada. The principal domestic supporters of Philippine independence, for example, were American farmers who didn’t want to face competition from tariff-free Filipino sugar, and nativists who didn’t want immigration from “alien races.”

A final general argument is, perhaps surprisingly, political legitimacy. The nations that America was closest to annexing are not only economic underperformers, they also tend to be undemocratic and authoritarian. Recently, Panama and the Dominican Republic are probably exceptions here with relatively successful and stable governance.

To build your own drone batteries, you have to source quality cells from a reliable supplier and assemble them into battery packs

Saturday, August 30th, 2025

If you break open a drone battery, David Hambling notes, you will find a shrink-wrapped block containing smaller batteries:

These cells are described by their size, so an 18650 cell is a cylindrical unit about 18 millimeters in diameter and 65 millimeters in height, while a 2170 is 21mm in diameter and 70 mm high.

A typical laptop battery will contain six 18650 lithium-ion cells. The battery pack for a Tesla Model 3 Long Range made before 2018 contains 2170-type cells, no less than 4,416 of them.

While not all cells are created equal, they are essentially commodity products manufactured by the billion. They’re made mainly by big players in the Far East; China dominates but it does not have a monopoly. Other sources are readily available.

The biggest battery maker by capacity is Chinese outfit CATL, making 132 GWH of cells every year. But the next two are South Korean LG (93 GWH) and Japanese Panasonic (60 GWH), and there are two other Korean outfits, Samsung and SK, in the top ten.

To build your own drone batteries, you have to source quality cells from a reliable supplier and assemble them into battery packs. And that is exactly what Ukrainian drone maker Wild Hornets has been doing for some time.

A video on social media explains Wild Hornets’ process. The building blocks for its battery packs are Samsung 50S, which are optimized for high-power applications and have a respectable 5000 mAH capacity.

The cells are arranged in blocks of 12 in a 6s2p unit (that is, 6 rows of 2 batteries) or 18 in 6s3p (6 rows of 3) configuration. These are connected with metal strips and 0.25 mm copper wiring — “we don’t economize” the presenter says in the video — spot welded into place. Spot welding is costlier than soldering, but more reliable. The completed unit is then securely shrink-wrapped with multiple layers of tough plastic.

[…]

The end result costs a total of $65 for small batteries and $90 for large, similar to commercial drone batteries.

Of course, they’re called batteries because they’re collections of smaller cells:

Benjamin Franklin first used the term “battery” in 1749 when he was doing experiments with electricity using a set of linked Leyden jar capacitors. Franklin grouped a number of the jars into what he described as a “battery”, using the military term for weapons functioning together.

Portugal does not allow consequence-free drug use

Tuesday, August 26th, 2025

Ever since Portugal enacted drug decriminalization in 2001, reformers have argued that North America should follow suit, but when Oregon and British Columbia decriminalized drugs in the early 2020s, the results were so catastrophic that both jurisdictions quickly reversed course:

Contrary to popular belief, Portugal does not allow consequence-free drug use. While the country treats the possession of illicit drugs for personal use as an administrative offense, it nonetheless summons apprehended drug users to “dissuasion” commissions composed of doctors, social workers, and lawyers. These commissions assess a drug user’s health, consumption habits, and socioeconomic circumstances before using arbitrator-like powers to impose appropriate sanctions.

These sanctions depend on the nature of the offense. In less severe cases, users receive warnings, small fines, or compulsory drug education. Severe or repeat offenders, however, can be banned from visiting certain places or people, or even have their property confiscated. Offenders who fail to comply are subject to wage garnishment.

Throughout the process, users are strongly encouraged to seek voluntary drug treatment, with most penalties waived if they accept. In the first few years after decriminalization, Portugal made significant investments into its national addiction and mental-health infrastructure (e.g., methadone clinics) to ensure that it had sufficient capacity to absorb these patients.

This form of decriminalization is far less radical than its North American proponents assume. In effect, Portugal created an alternative justice system that coercively diverts addicts into rehab instead of jail. That users are not criminally charged does not mean they are not held accountable. Further, the country still criminalizes the public consumption and trafficking of illicit drugs.

[…]

In late 2020, Oregon embarked on its own drug decriminalization experiment, known as Measure 110. Though proponents cited Portugal’s success, unlike the European nation, Oregon failed to establish any substantive coercive mechanisms to divert addicts into treatment. The state merely gave drug users a choice between paying a $100 ticket or calling a health hotline. Because the state imposed no penalty for failing to follow through with either option, drug possession effectively became a consequence-free behavior. Police data from 2022, for example, found that 81 percent of ticketed individuals simply ignored their fines.

Additionally, the state failed to invest in treatment capacity and actually defunded existing drug-use-prevention programs to finance Measure 110’s unused support systems, such as the health hotline.

The results were disastrous. Overdose deaths spiked almost 50 percent between 2021 and 2023. Crime and public drug use became so rampant in Portland that state leaders declared a 90-day fentanyl emergency in early 2024. Facing withering public backlash, Oregon ended its decriminalization experiment in the spring of 2024 after almost four years of failure.

Route march speed was reduced from 7.5 to 5 km/h

Monday, August 25th, 2025

In 1991-1992, a pelvic stress fracture incidence of 11.2% was recorded in a cohort of 143 female Australian Army recruits:

An incidence of 0.1% was recorded in a cohort of male recruits trained in the 1992-1993 year using a nearly identical program. A number of preventive strategies were instituted in an attempt to reduce the high incidence of injury in female recruits. Route march speed was reduced from 7.5 to 5 km/h, running occurred on softer surfaces, individual step length was promoted instead of marching in step, march and run formations were more widely spaced, and interval-running training replaced traditional middle-distance runs. Pelvic stress fracture incidence decreased significantly to 0.6% in an immediately subsequent cohort of 161 female recruits (chi 2 = 15.12 for 1 df; p < 0.001). It is likely that the preventive strategies reduced bone strain by reducing the frequency and forces of impact during the training period.

(Hat tip to Arctotherium.)

We are preparing to storm positions that we should already be occupying

Friday, August 22nd, 2025

In doctrine, dogma dies hard:

Nowhere is this more evident than in NATO’s enduring obsession with the offense, particularly in the terrain of the urban environment. Despite being a fundamentally defensive alliance, most NATO exercises, training courses, and operational plans focus on seizing ground, breaching defenses, and clearing strongpoints. The result is a dangerous conceptual imbalance: armies that are prepared to attack in cities but not to defend them. In reality, they will likely have to do the latter before they ever do the former.

This is not an abstract concern. If conflict erupts in NATO’s sphere of interest, the first units to make contact will almost certainly be defending, not attacking. An adversary is likely to have the important first-mover advantage, seizing the initiative by making the opening moves. Initial objectives in such conflicts will undoubtedly include those large urban areas that straddle the main transportation infrastructure leading farther toward the adversary’s objectives. Potential adversaries know this in advance. They will plan to mass fires, integrate uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) with thermobaric payloads, and conduct urban shaping operations before launching a combined arms assault. They will not wait for NATO to organize a counterattack. War will come to the defenders.

Why, then, are NATO militaries still preparing to assault someone else’s trenches instead of holding their own?

The roots of this imbalance lie in what can only be described as a cult of the urban offense. It is baked into NATO doctrine, into training centers, and into the very language of tactical education. Urban warfare is taught almost exclusively through the narrow lens of clearing buildings, breaching doors, assaulting intersections, and suppressing enemy strongpoints. The imagery is kinetic, aggressive, and built around a World War II model of urban combat that focuses almost entirely on the tactical level.

Most of that sounds more like Delta Force’s hostage-rescue tactics trickling down through the Rangers to Big Army.

That model is outdated. NATO instructors still teach tactics developed to defeat Axis defenders in fortified cities. But modern adversaries are not relying on bunkers and machine gun nests. They are using thermobaric weapons, precision-guided bombs, loitering munitions, tandem-charge rocket-propelled grenades, and multispectral UAV reconnaissance. A shoulder-fired rocket that once might have created a breach in a wall now flattens a room, an entire floor, or even a whole building. In Ukraine, even basic UAVs are delivering thermobaric payloads through second-story windows.

Yet our tactics have not caught up. NATO battalions in the Baltics still train to assault trench lines. But whose trenches? If Russia crosses the border, NATO’s first mission is to hold ground, not to seize it. We are preparing to storm positions that we should already be occupying.

The problem runs deeper than doctrine. The way we train shapes the way we think. When soldiers spend months rehearsing assaults but never practice layered defense or mobile delay operations, they internalize a false belief that success only comes from attacking. Urban exercises often end at the point of entry (the break-in), not with the enemy’s inevitable counterattack. There is little emphasis on hasty defense after seizure, even though many major urban battles such as Stalingrad, Ortona, Aachen, Grozny, Fallujah, Mosul, Marawi, and Sieverodonetsk required forces to shift from offense to defense, sometimes repeatedly.

Urban training environments make this worse. Most NATO sites are sterile and overly simplified. They consist of a few one- or two-story buildings arranged in a grid, with no interior clutter, no civilian presence, no collateral damage, and no realistic fire effects. These facilities are useful for rehearsing movement drills but do not prepare troops to survive real contact. No NATO unit trains under thermobaric blasts crashing through upper floors or autocannon fire ripping through multiple walls. No site simulates the violence of joint fires in dense terrain or the intensity of enemy shaping operations that strike everything around a defensive position.

[…]

This failure to replicate real-world conditions reinforces outdated thinking. If soldiers only train in sanitized environments, they will not learn how quickly a position can be located, targeted, and destroyed. If they never experience fire effects such as rounds passing through concrete, they will not understand the limits of cover or the importance of dispersion, concealment, and movement.

The lack of depth also prevents defenders from practicing fallback routes, alternate positions, and layered deception. Units become conditioned to static defense. And yet, many NATO militaries still express confidence in their ability to conduct urban operations at scale.

[…]

First, defending forces must limit the attacker’s options. One of the defender’s most pressing challenges in urban terrain is poor situational awareness in the surrounding environment. Line of sight is limited, and urban clutter obscures movement and intent. While this affects both sides, attackers often retain the initiative and usually enjoy better intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance coverage from the outset. This gives them more options for break-in points than most defenders can realistically cover.

[…]

Second, dispersion within the local urban environment must be maximized. NATO forces must abandon the one building, one squad mentality. Instead, available construction and fortification materials should be used to reinforce a distributed network of mutually supporting buildings. This creates layered strongpoints that can deliver interlocking fields of fire, absorb attrition in stages, and delay the enemy’s tempo.

Defenders should prepare loopholes for overlapping fires, establish mouseholes for concealed movement and fallback, and construct alternate positions that are ready for rapid displacement. These routes should be obscured from overhead observation to reduce vulnerability to UAV detection and indirect fire. Camouflage and concealment remain essential. Avoiding enemy intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance entirely is all but impossible, so survivability depends on signature reduction so fighting positions are not targetable or worth the attacker’s munition.

A committee of three was ideal

Saturday, August 16th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesSecretary of War Henry Stimson told General Groves that the Manhattan Engineer District should be overseen by a committee of nine or possibly seven men, as Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project:

I objected quite vigorously on the grounds that such a large committee would be unwieldy; it would cause delays in taking action; and some, if not the majority, of its members would tend to treat it as a secondary responsibility, to the detriment of our progress. I felt that a committee of three was ideal and that any more members would be a hindrance rather than a benefit. I pointed out that I could keep three people reasonably well informed on our major problems, and, furthermore, that I would be able to obtain advice from them much more readily than I could from a larger group. In the end, my views were accepted.

[…]

There followed some general conversation, in the midst of which, and with no small amount of embarrassment on my part, for I was by far the most junior person present, I asked to be excused if I were no longer needed, for I wanted to catch the train to Tennessee and inspect the proposed production plant site, so that the land acquisition could proceed. With this, the meeting broke up. I was a bit relieved when Somervell told me several days later that my request could not have been better timed, because it convinced everyone that he had not overemphasized my urgent desire to get a job moving.

Skilled immigrants often constitute an espionage risk

Wednesday, August 13th, 2025

Given the reality of mixed loyalties, Arctotherium notes, it shouldn’t be surprising that skilled immigrants often constitute an espionage risk:

Take the infamous Pakistani nuclear physicist AQ Khan. In 1961, he moved to West Berlin as a foreign student, then to the Netherlands and finally Belgium to finish his education, graduating with a Doctorate in Engineering in 1972. Khan was undoubtedly among the best and brightest of Pakistan, the sort of high-agency STEM genius that brain drain advocates hold up as America’s greatest strength. Was allowing A.Q. Khan into the West a good decision? No.

Khan got a position at the Physics Dynamics Research Laboratory, a Dutch firm specializing in uranium enrichment via centrifuge. He stole centrifuge designs and blueprints, and after returning to Pakistan set up an international network of illicit suppliers for centrifuge parts using his contacts, leading to the 1998 Pakistani nuclear bomb. From there, he diffused nuclear technology further. The North Korean, Iranian and Libyan nuclear programs all trace back to A.Q. Khan. Pakistan has had multiple serious nuclear war scares with India in the last five years. North Korea, which has a history of doing things like axe-murder Americans, can act with relative impunity thanks to its nuclear arsenal, and Israel and the US recently bombed Iran over their nuclear program.

There are many examples from the US. For instance, Noshir Gowadia, an Indian Parsi designer of the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, and Chi Mak, who worked on nuclear submarines, both sold secrets to China.

Immigration fractures national markets

Tuesday, August 12th, 2025

If you want to join Britain’s thriving cocaine smuggling industry, Arctotherium notes, you have to be Albanian:

There’s no a priori reason why this should be the case. Albanians do not have a racial, cultural, geographic or political affinity for Colombian narcotics. A reasonable and informed observer in 2000 would not have predicted that they would come to dominate the industry. Yet such an obsever would have predicted that some ethnic minority would because organized crime is almost always organized along ethnic lines. This is true even when the ethnic minority is less criminal on average than society at large, as with the Jewish mafia in early 20th century America.

This phenomenon isn’t unique to criminal enterprises. Chaldeans control 90% of the grocery stores in Detroit. 40% of the truck drivers in California are Sikh, and about a third of US Sikhs are truck drivers. About 95% of the Dunkin’ Donuts stores in Chicago and the Midwest are owned by Indians, mostly Gujarati Patels. In New England and New York, 60% of Dunkin’ Donuts stores are operated by Portuguese immigrants. 90% of the liquor stores in Baltimore are owned by Koreans.

[…]

The key point is that immigration fractures national markets. Once a niche is taken over, outsiders can no longer compete in that niche.

There is still competition within ethnic groups inside the niches, but these groups are tiny fractions of the population and often have informal institutions and kinship structures that allow them to act as cartels.

[…]

Cambodians run about 80% of the donut shops in Southern California (despite being only 0.17% of the state’s population). The Cambodian donut empire got its start with refugee Ted Ngoy, who first learned the trade thanks to an affirmative action program to increase minority hiring at Winchell’s Donuts. The Cambodians were able to completely dominate this traditional American culinary sector through a mix of extended family credit and the use of tong tines, an informal lending club.

[…]

This ability to borrow money cheaply made financing much easier for them than for their American competitors. Once the business was purchased, Cambodians could also keep operating costs down through informal employment of family labor, allowing them to get around expensive income taxes, not to mention labor laws and regulations — including ones around child labor.

[…]

Gujaratis, mostly with the surname Patel, run an estimated 42% of the hotels and motels in the United States — despite being only 0.3% of the US population (and an even lower percentage back in 1999 when this was first noticed). Their dominance rises to 80–90% of motels in small town America. The Patel motel cartel got its start with an illegal immigrant, Kanjibhai Desai, in the 1940s. The initial attraction for Patels was that motel ownership did not require English proficiency, and as with the Cambodians, Patel motel owners were able to use informal ethnic loan networks and immigrant family labor brought in via family reunification to undercut their American competitors. Patels now totally dominate the hospitality industry in the US outside of the big chains.

Over half the nail salons in the US are run by Vietnamese, which rises to more than 80% in California (they are only 0.7% of the US population). Just like the Patels and the Cambodians, Vietnamese immigrants were able to finance nail salons more easily than American competitors because they had access to below-market credit from family and friends.

[…]

After the ethnic network was established, Vietnamese owners gained another advantage over non-Vietnamese competitors: better access to workers and training. The language barrier is part of this; once most salon owners spoke primarily Vietnamese, prospective workers had to as well, and cosmetology schools began teaching courses in Vietnamese rather than English.

Groves was too aggressive and might have difficulty with the scientific people

Saturday, August 9th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesVannevar Bush headed the U.S. Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD) during World War 2, and General Groves admits that Dr. Bush was quite disturbed at Groves’ appointment as head of the Manhattan Project, as he explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, because he felt Groves was too aggressive and might have difficulty with the scientific people. After their first inauspicious meeting, Groves went back to his office:

Finding my secretary, Mrs. O’Leary, there, I told her I was being reassigned and that if she wanted to come along, I would be glad to have her. I added, in what proved to be a great understatement, that this would be a very quiet and easy job for her and she should be sure to bring along some knitting to keep herself occupied. This prediction proved valid for about two days.

When I returned home that evening I told my wife and daughter and wrote to my son, a cadet at West Point, that I had a new job, that it involved secret matters and for that reason was never to be mentioned. The answer to be given if they were asked what I was doing was, “I don’t know, I never know what he’s doing.” To my son, I added, “If it is an officer who knows me well, and he is persistent, you can add, ‘I think it’s something secret.’”

[…]

Unlikely as it may seem to many people, they first learned of the nature of my assignment at the same moment, three years later, that the bombing of Hiroshima was announced to the rest of the world.