Memory comes in many forms

Thursday, February 13th, 2020

Memory comes in many forms — long-term and short-term, “autobiographical,” “episodic,” and “semantic,” among others — Charles Murray notes (in Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class), and females have an advantage in some of them (as Diane Halpern notes in Sex Differences in Cognitive Abilities):

  • Females tend to be better than males at remembering faces and names.
  • Females tend to be better than males at recognizing facial emotions.
  • Females tend to be better at remembering the minutiae of an event (labeled peripheral detail), while males tend to be better at remembering the core events (labeled gist).
  • Females tend to remember speech they have heard better than males, particularly when it relates to emotionally laden events in their past.
  • Females tend to retain memories from earlier childhood better than males do.
  • Females tend to have better short-term memory than males (e.g., given a list of single-digit numbers, they remember longer lists than males do).
  • Females tend to have better verbal working memory (e.g., remembering a list of numbers while answering questions about an unrelated topic).
  • Females tend to have better memory for locations of objects (e.g., remembering where the car keys were left).
  • Males tend to have better visuospatial memory (e.g., navigating on the basis of a combination of landscape features).

Females have an advantage on certain perceptual-motor tasks

Wednesday, February 12th, 2020

In Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class, Charles Murray continues his list of specific skills and aptitudes that each sex performs better, taken from Diane Halpern’s Sex Differences in Cognitive Abilities, with a look at perceptual-motor tasks:

  • Females have an advantage on certain perceptual-motor tasks. On digit-symbol coding, for example, where each symbol corresponds to a number (e.g., “substitute 2 for #”), women code faster than men do.
  • Females have an even larger advantage in a variety of fine motor skills involving hand-eye coordination.
  • In tests of motor skills, it sometimes happens that men are faster but women are more accurate.
  • Men have a substantial advantage in many large motor skills, but few of them have much to do with cognition. The major exception is males’ pronounced advantage on tasks that involve throwing objects accurately at stationary or moving targets, because that accuracy is highly dependent on visuospatial processing in the brain.

Throwing like a girl is definitely a thing.

The story is mostly one of small female advantages

Monday, February 10th, 2020

In Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class, Charles Murray relies on Diane Halpern’s fourth edition of Sex Differences in Cognitive Abilities (2012) for his list of specific skills and aptitudes that each sex performs better. He starts with sensory perception:

When it comes to the five senses — taste, touch, smell, sound, vision — the story is mostly one of small female advantages.

  • Females tend to be better than males at detecting pure tones.
  • Adult females tend to have more sensitive hearing for high frequencies than males.
  • Females tend to have better auditory perception of binaural beats and otoacoustic emissions.
  • Females tend to detect faint smells better than males.
  • Females tend to identify smells more accurately than males.
  • Males under 40 tend to detect small movements in their visual field better than females.
  • Age-related loss of vision tends to occur about ten years earlier for females than for males.
  • Males are many times more likely to be color-blind than females (the ratio varies by ethnic group).
  • The balance of evidence indicates that females are more accurate than males in recognizing the basic tastes (sweet, sour, salty, bitter), though some studies find no difference.
  • Females tend to be better than males at perceiving fine surface details by touch. This holds true for blind people as well as sighted ones.

Women are also more sensitive to pain and to disgust.

The only question is how long it will take

Sunday, February 9th, 2020

Human Diversity by Charles MurrayIn Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class, Charles Murray discusses the McCrae study, which looks at differences in personality traits between men and women in 50 different countries, rich and poor, from around the world:

The great cultural and economic disparities across these countries make it difficult to see how all of them could produce uniform socialization of girls to be more warm, altruistic, sympathetic, sociable, and artistically sensitive than men.

I use gender egality in preference to gender equality to signify not just progress toward diminishing sex differences but also institutional, legal, and social changes intended to put men and women on an equal footing.

The question at hand is whether sex differences in personality are smaller in countries that have made the most progress.

The theories of socialization and of social roles that I summarized in chapter 1 necessarily expect that the answer is yes. If sex differences in personality are artificial, diminishing the causes of artificial differences must eventually lead to smaller differences.

The only question is how long it will take.

This brings us to a counterintuitive finding that seems to cut across a variety of sex differences: Many sex differences in cognitive repertoires are wider rather than smaller in countries with greater gender egality. Personality traits offers the first example.

[...]

On average, women preferred altruism, trust, and positive reciprocity more than men and were more averse to negative reciprocity than men. In the two nonsocial preferences, men preferred risk-taking and waiting for a larger reward more than women.

[...]

Five different studies, based on different measures of personality and national gender egality, analyzing data from dozens of countries, all found the same pattern: overall consistency in male-female differences in personality, but larger differences in the most advanced countries

[...]

Perhaps we’re looking at a general phenomenon that goes far beyond personality traits. For example, the Schmitt study points out, sexual dimorphism in height increases with a country’s wealth. So too with sexual dimorphism in blood pressure. So too with competitiveness in sports — as opportunities and incentives increase for women to compete in sports, sex differences in performance increase as well. So too with differences between advantaged and disadvantaged groups in health and education when new opportunities are made available to all. Two years after the Schmitt study made these points, another study led by Richard Lippa found that sexual dimorphism in visuospatial abilities also increased with gender equality.

Another surprise from the Schmitt study was its finding that men do most of the changing, in both the physiological and personality traits. When sexual dimorphism in height increases, for example, it is primarily due to greater height among males. In the case of personality, the Schmitt study found that the wider sex gap in emotional stability in advanced countries is not the result of women becoming less emotionally stable, but of men self-reporting higher levels of emotional stability, and also lower levels of agreeableness and conscientiousness, than men in less advanced countries.

End­stopped neurons respond both to motion and to the terminations of a stimulus’ edges

Sunday, February 9th, 2020

Gwern recently cited a paper, Attention and awareness in stage magic: turning tricks into research, that describes the neural basis of spoon bending and the dancing bar illusion:

Spoon bending. In this illusion the magician bends a spoon, apparently by using the power of the mind. In one part of the trick, the magician holds the spoon horizontally and shakes it up and down. This shows that the neck of the spoon has apparently become flexible. The apparent rubberiness of the spoon is an example of the Dancing Bar (or Rubber Tree) illusion, in which an oscillating bar (or rubber tree) seems to bend when it is bounced rapidly. The neural basis of this illusion lies in the fact that end­stopped neurons (that is, neurons that respond both to motion and to the terminations of a stimulus’ edges, such as corners or the ends of lines) in the primary visual cortex (area V1) and the middle temporal visual area (area MT, also known as area V5) respond differently from non­end­stopped neurons to oscillating stimuli. This differential response results in an apparent spatial mislocalization between the ends of a stimulus and its centre, making a solid object look like it flexes in the middle.

On many important personality traits, the differences between men and women are quite small

Saturday, February 8th, 2020

Human Diversity by Charles MurrayAfter discussing proto-feminist Mary Astell in Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class, Charles Murray discusses the differences in personality traits between men and women:

It is appropriate to begin by emphasizing that on many important personality traits, the differences between men and women are quite small. These trivial differences apply to many characteristics that are sometimes ascribed to men (e.g., “assertive or forceful in expression,” “self-reliant, solitary, resourceful”) and ones that are sometimes ascribed to women (e.g., “open to the inner world of imagination,” “lively, animated, spontaneous”).

[...]

Among the traits on which men and women differ, some of the largest effect sizes are consistent with the higher prevalence of depression among women.

[...]

Some of the substantively significant sex differences correspond to traditional stereotypes about feminine sensibility. In the FFM inventory, women were more appreciative of art and beauty than were men (d = +0.34 and +0.33 for the Costa and Kajonius studies respectively), were more open to inner feelings and emotions (d = +0.28 and +0.64), were more modest in playing down their achievements (d = +0.38 and +0.45), and were more reactive, affected by feelings, and easily upset (d = +0.53). In the 16PF inventory, several stereotypical characteristics were combined into one factor, “sensitive, aesthetic, sentimental,” with a whopping d of +2.29.

[...]

A person who is warm, sympathetic, accommodating, altruistic, and sociable amounts to the stereotype of a human being, male or female, who is more attuned to people than things. Women are more likely to have that profile than are men.

[...]

People who are somewhat to the other side of each trait in the table are reserved, utilitarian, unsentimental, dispassionate, and solitary — which amounts to the stereotype of a human being, male or female, who is more attracted to things, broadly defined, than to people. Men are more likely to have that profile than are women.

Can you draw a bicycle?

Thursday, February 6th, 2020

We overestimate our ability to explain how things work. Cognitive psychologist Rebecca Lawson at the University of Liverpool measured how well people understand how everyday objects work using the bicycle:

I have given the test to over 200 students and parents coming to Open Days at the University. Over 96% had learnt to cycle as children with a further 1.5% learning as adults and less than 3% never having learned. Also 52% of this group owned a bicycle. Sadly, the figures on actual cycling were low, with just 1% cycling most days, 4% cycling around once a week and 9% cycling about once a month. The vast majority either never cycle (52%) or rarely do so (33%). Nevertheless, even for these non-cyclists, bicycles are a common sight. Secondly, if Rozenblit and Keil are correct, people should greatly over-estimate their understanding of how bicycles work because bicycle parts are visible and they seem to be simple, mechanical devices.

Draw a Bicycle Figure 1

I first asked people to draw a bicycle and I then asked them to select which of four alternatives were correct for the frame, the pedals and the chain, see Figure 1. I used the multiple choice test to check that errors that people made were not just due to problems with drawing or in my judgement of the accuracy of their drawings, see Figure 2.

Draw a Bicycle Figure 2

I looked at three types of errors which would severely impair the functioning of a bicycle (see Figure 3 for examples of all three):

1. drawing the frame joining the front and back wheels (making steering impossible)

2. not placing the pedals between the wheels and inside the chain (the pedals were sometimes drawn attached to the front wheel, the back wheel or dangling off the cross-bar)

3. not putting the chain around the pedals and the back wheel (these errors were almost all because people drew the chain looping around both the front and the back wheel of the bicycle)

Draw a Bicycle Figure 3

It seems that many people have virtually no understanding of how bicycles work. This is despite bicycles being highly familiar and most people having learnt how to ride one. Most people know that turning the pedals drives one or both of the bicycle wheels forward, but they probably understand little more than this.

[...]

One last thing: unexpected sex effects. One finding that I was not looking for jumped out from the data. There were huge sex differences with females making many more errors than males.

[...]

Thus, at least for frame and chain errors, females make around twice as many errors as males. It could be argued that this is still a matter of experience. It is likely that boys cycle more than girls so many males who currently rarely cycle may have, over their lifetime, seen and used more bicycles than females. However the sex difference is even more extreme for those who claim to cycle around once a month, once a week or most days.

[...]

Not only do male non-cyclists make fewer errors than female non-cyclists, they also make fewer errors than female cyclists; whilst male cyclists make almost no errors.

This won’t deter critics from saying it’s all pseudoscience

Wednesday, February 5th, 2020

Human Diversity by Charles MurrayDespite his experience co-writing The Bell Curve, Charles Murray went ahead with Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class:

I’m also at a point in my career when I’m immune to many of the penalties that a younger scholar would risk.

He thought he was careful with The Bell Curve, and it wasn’t enough — if only because no one read the book before attacking it. He has tried being careful again:

Almost all of the findings I report are ones that have broad acceptance within their disciplines. When a finding is still tentative, I label it as such. I know this won’t deter critics from saying it’s all pseudoscience, but I hope the experts will be yawning with boredom because they know all this already.

Both sons also later attempted suicide

Tuesday, February 4th, 2020

Human Diversity by Charles MurrayEarly in Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class, Charles Murray notes that:

The explicit rejection of a role for biology in the social sciences occurred from the end of the nineteenth through the beginning of the twentieth centuries, with the leading roles played by Émile Durkheim in sociology, Franz Boas in anthropology, and John Watson in psychology.

I didn’t immediately recognize John Watson. He was the American psychologist who established the psychological school of behaviorism — and I think he had his reasons:

Watson was born in Travelers Rest, South Carolina, to Pickens Butler and Emma Kesiah (née Roe) Watson. His mother, Emma Watson, a very religious woman who adhered to prohibitions against drinking, smoking, and dancing, named Watson after a prominent Baptist minister in hopes that it would help him receive the call to preach the Gospel. In bringing him up, she subjected Watson to harsh religious training that later led him to develop a lifelong antipathy toward all forms of religion and to become an atheist. His alcoholic father left the family to live with two Indian women when Watson was 13 years old (a transgression which Watson never forgave).

[...]

Despite his poor academic performance and having been arrested twice during high school (first for fighting, then for discharging firearms within city limits), Watson was able to use his mother’s connections to gain admission to Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina.

[...]

John B. Watson married Mary Ickes, a sister of Harold L. Ickes, while he was in graduate school. They had two children, also named John and Mary Ickes Watson. The younger Mary’s husband was Paul Hartley, and their daughter is the actress, bipolar disorder advocate, and founder of the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention, Mariette Hartley.

John B. Watson’s wife Mary later sought divorce due to his ongoing affair with his student, Rosalie Rayner (1898–1935). Watson’s affair had become front-page news during divorce proceedings in the Baltimore newspapers. Mary Ickes Watson, his wife, had searched Rayner’s bedroom. She discovered love letters Watson had written to Rayner. In October 1920, Johns Hopkins University asked Watson to leave his faculty position because of publicity surrounding the affair.

After the divorce was finalized, Watson and Rayner married in 1920 in New Jersey. They remained together until her death in 1935. John and Rosalie had two children, William Rayner Watson (1921) and James Broadus Watson (1924), and they raised them with behaviorist principles that John believed in. Like their half-sister, Mary, both sons also later attempted suicide. William died of suicide in 1954.

Pest managers are 30 years ahead of oncologists

Tuesday, February 4th, 2020

Pest managers are 30 years ahead of oncologists:

Robert Gatenby, the co-founder of Florida-based Moffitt Cancer Center’s new Center of Excellence for Evolutionary Therapy, is a pioneer in the field and driving the bulk of the work in the U.S. on adaptive therapy. He is also a co-author on a small, pilot study, with initial results published in 2017 in Nature Communications, that showed that patients lasted at least 27 months on average without their tumors growing, compared with the usual 16.5 months, while receiving less of the same drug.

Dr. Gatenby, who had a background in physics before going into medicine, often points to pest control to describe therapy, and others in the field have picked up the analogy as well. In pest management, managers often don’t try to eliminate all of the insects but instead reduce their numbers, keeping the spray-sensitive bugs around to compete against the resistant bugs. Pest management developed the technique after overusing insecticides, which eliminated most of the insects. But some resistant bugs came crawling back.

Adaptive Therapy for Cancer

We are supposed to simultaneously worship diversity and pretend it doesn’t exist

Friday, January 31st, 2020

Human Diversity by Charles MurraySocial scientists tend to be leftists, Steve Sailer notes, but the bulk of their findings have long tended to support rightists:

Charles Murray, a rare man of the right in the social sciences, has been pointing out this paradox since his 1984 book Losing Ground: American Social Policy, 1950–1980.

Now 77, Murray began planning to write his new book Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class four years ago.

The title Human Diversity is impertinent because we are supposed to simultaneously worship diversity and pretend it doesn’t exist. Humanity is proclaimed to be both a rainbow of diverse delights and a beige putty that is wholly molded by arbitrary social injustices.

But would writing an honest book entitled Human Diversity be worth the abuse? Murray’s wife was skeptical. He explains in its Acknowledgments:

My wife and editor, Catherine…initially tried to talk me out of writing ‘Human Diversity.’ When I began work in the fall of 2016, the nastiness associated with the reaction to The Bell Curve was a distant memory. Did I really want to go through that again?

A kind and sensitive man, Murray had found the ignorant and malignant backlash against his 1994 magnum opus coauthored with the late Harvard psychologist Richard J. Herrnstein, The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life, to be a depressing experience. The hate campaign against Murray contributed to virtually nobody paying attention to his fascinating 2003 book Human Accomplishment: The Pursuit of Excellence in the Arts and Sciences, 800 B.C. to 1950.

But Murray finally got out of the media’s doghouse with 2012’s Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960–2010 by the expedient of applying his superb analytic skills solely to white Americans.

Still, in early 2017 a leftist goon squad at expensive Middlebury College assaulted Murray and a professor, Alison Stanger, who was attempting to interview him:

Then came the radicalization of the campuses, when we learned that the bad old days were back no matter what. “Confound it!” said Catherine, or two syllables to that effect, on the day I returned from the riot at Middlebury. “If they’re going to do this kind of thing anyway, go ahead and write it.”

On the other hand, Human Diversity is not intended to be a sharp stick in the eye for Murray’s abusers. It is aimed instead at intelligent readers who want to learn about the state of the human sciences a fifth of the way through the 21st century. Human Diversity is something of a meta-review of recent meta-analyses that have been published in dozens of subdisciplines to summarize countless individual studies.

We’re lucky to have Murray to guide us through so much. Although Murray has made his career largely at think tanks rather than in academia, he is by nature less argumentative than professorial. He works hard at making his vast amount of material comprehensible. His prose style is pleasingly informal.

And Murray’s books have always been appealing physical objects, with elegant fonts, uncluttered graphs, and a little extra leading between the lines to make the text look less daunting.

He’s almost got me considering the hardcover edition — but the Kindle edition is too convenient, especially for quoting.

It is difficult to understand why this should be such a formidable task

Thursday, January 30th, 2020

In the third chapter of Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class, while discussing sex differences in neurocognitive functioning, Charles Murray presents a simple test of visuospatial skills, the Piaget water-level test.

Go ahead and give it a try.

Don’t worry, it’s not a trick question.

After you’re finished, go ahead and read the text below the diagram:

Halpern Bottle Tilting Question Diagram

The test-taker is asked to draw a line to show how the water line would look in the tilted bottle. The correct answer is a horizontal line relative to the earth. Halpern reports that the best estimate, summarizing results over many studies, is that about 40 percent of college women get it wrong. Effect sizes favoring males range from –0.44 to –0.66. In Halpern’s words, “It is difficult to understand why this should be such a formidable task for college women.” And yet the result has been replicated many times, has been confirmed internationally, and is just about impossible to explain as a product of culture or socialization (if you doubt that, give it a try).

They’re impervious to racism and other forms of prejudice

Tuesday, January 28th, 2020

Human Diversity by Charles MurrayAlmost all human traits are partly heritable, Charles Murray notes:

That’s been known for decades. But until a few years ago, no one knew what specific bits of DNA code determine any given trait. Now, however, geneticists have identified at least a few hundred variants in the DNA code that are statistically associated with important traits such as intelligence, depression and risk tolerance. Over the next decade, they are on track to identify thousands of variants associated with dozens of traits. That achievement will open up the ability to score genetic potential on those traits and thereby revolutionize the social sciences.

The methods of scoring are improving almost monthly, but the essence is simple. Each variant has a version (more precisely, one of the alleles in a single nucleotide polymorphism) associated with a small boost to the trait in question. If you add up those small boosts, you have a score for that trait, in the same sense that you have an IQ score if you add up all the correct answers to the questions on an IQ test. In the case of DNA variants, it is called a “polygenic score.”

Polygenic scores are revolutionary because they are causal in only one direction. They don’t drop because tests make you nervous or rise because you grew up rich. They’re impervious to racism and other forms of prejudice. Socioeconomic and cultural environments can play an important role in how those bits of DNA are expressed, but they don’t change the codes themselves. That means polygenic scores will offer social scientists something they’ve never had before: a secure place to stand in assessing what is innate and what is added by the environment.

Progress during the past five years has been rapid for many traits. In the case of IQ, the share of the variation in scores that can be explained from genetic material alone went from zero in 2015 to 5% in 2018 and 11% in 2019. That doesn’t tell us much about any individual’s IQ, but it’s enough to be useful in addressing many important issues.

[...]

I don’t expect such analyses will be free of controversy. I am asserting that they are technically feasible, will be conducted within a few years, and will offer powerful tests of questions that have been argued for decades.

I expect we’ll be discussing Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class quite a bit in the coming weeks.

Fungi in general just don’t like high temperatures

Tuesday, January 28th, 2020

In terms of infections, it’s bacteria, parasites, and viruses that kill us, but fungi are responsible for 72% of the local extinctions of animals and 64% among plants:

Unlike viruses and most bacteria, fungi can survive — and survive for years — in dry or frigid environments outside of hosts. All they need to do is make spores: small, hardy reproductive structures containing all the necessary DNA to grow a new fungus. As spores, fungi can tough out adverse conditions and drift thousands of miles in the wind to find more livable settings.

Aspergillus sydowii, for example, hitches a ride in dust storms from Africa to the Caribbean, where it infects coral reefs. They’re also ubiquitous in the air; there are one to ten spores in every breath you take.

Wheat stem rust, a common fungus that causes $60 billion of crop damage a year, produces up to 1011 spores per hectare, and they can travel 10,000 kilometers through the atmosphere to find new hosts. That’s only taking into account one of its five spore forms, which are produced at different times in its life cycle.

For plants in general, fungi are the number one infectious threat, far above bacteria or viruses. Many fungi are also generalists that use a scorched-earth strategy to parasitize a wide range of hosts. To invade host cells, viruses need to sneak their way in by fitting into specific proteins like a key in a lock. Because viruses need to have this precision, it’s hard for them to jump from one species to another one with a different set of proteins, and it’s a big deal when it does happen. Fungi, on the hand, don’t need to enter cells; like the mold that eats your bread, it squirts its digestives juices and rots everything in sight. While viruses nimbly pick your locks, fungi are like a bomb that will blow up your door — or anyone else’s.

Being generalists has another added bonus for fungal pathogens: They can completely wipe out a main host while living in other species as backup. For bacteria or viruses, killing an entire species is usually a bad bet for survival; get rid of your host and you’ve got nowhere to go yourself. In contrast, the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which eats away at the skin of amphibians, is able to infect 508 different organisms, killing 100% of some species but lurking in others without doing much harm. The unaffected species act as reservoirs that can harbor and even spread B.dendrobatidis as it “looks” for other hosts.

Some fungi can also lie in wait in the environment, not as spores but as living fungi that feed on decaying matter. For example, the fungus that causes white nose syndrome, Geomyces destructans, has been recovered in the soil in bat caves, and scientists think that it lurks in caves during the summer, surviving off of nutrients in the dirt and bat guano (droppings). The fungus can only infect hibernating bats, so it must live outside of its host for the majority of the year. Come winter, bats go into hibernation and the infection cycle starts again. G. destructans, too, is extremely deadly, killing 90% of the animals it infects or an estimated 6 million bats since it first appeared in North America in 2006. The fungus wakes bats up during their hibernation, which makes them burn out their fat reserves too quickly and starve to death.

That G. destructans can only infect bats during hibernation is a clue to the key reason we don’t have much to fear from fungal infections. During hibernation, the normally warm-blooded bats drop their body temperatures significantly to save energy — and that’s when G. destructans attacks. Fungi in general just don’t like high temperatures. A 2009 analysis of 4,802 fungal strains found that the number of surviving strains drops off rapidly as incubation temperature increased from 30° to 40° Celsius. The researchers suggest that fighting off fungus may be one reason why our body temperature is fastened at 37° C.

Microbiologist and immunologist Arturo Casadevall has even speculated that the anti-fungal protection of warm bodies may have been one of our ancestors’ advantages over the dinosaurs. In the aftermath of the massive plant die-off of the K-T extinction 65 million years ago, fungi likely thrived on plentiful rotting vegetation. As they proliferated, fungal diseases could have contributed to the selection pressure that killed off cold-blooded dinosaurs, opening the door for the ascent of warm-blooded mammals. Casadevall’s theory is speculative at this point, but the high virulence, adaptability, and transmissibility of modern fungi show why fending off fungal disease could have been quite advantageous for our fuzzy ancestors. So it seems we have warm-bloodedness to thank for protecting us from most pathogenic fungi, with a few exceptions.

(Hat tip to Gwern.)

R naught is the number of cases one case generates

Monday, January 27th, 2020

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (denoted R0, r nought) is the number of cases one case generates (on average over the course of its infectious period, in an otherwise uninfected population):

This metric is useful because it helps determine whether or not an infectious disease can spread through a population. The roots of the basic reproduction concept can be traced through the work of Alfred Lotka, Ronald Ross, and others, but its first modern application in epidemiology was by George MacDonald in 1952, who constructed population models of the spread of malaria.

When

R0 < 1

the infection will die out in the long run. But if

R0 > 1

the infection will be able to spread in a population.

Generally, the larger the value of R0, the harder it is to control the epidemic. For simple models and a 100% effective vaccine, the proportion of the population that needs to be vaccinated to prevent sustained spread of the infection is given by 1 – 1/R0.

Values of R0 of well-known infectious diseases
Disease Transmission R0
Measles Airborne 12–18
Diphtheria Saliva 6-7
Smallpox Airborne droplet 5–7
Polio Fecal-oral route 5–7
Rubella Airborne droplet 5–7
Mumps Airborne droplet 4–7
HIV/AIDS Sexual contact 2–5
Pertussis Airborne droplet 5.5
2019-nCoV Airborne droplet 3-5
SARS Airborne droplet 2–5
Influenza
(1918 pandemic strain)
Airborne droplet 2–3
Ebola
(2014 Ebola outbreak)
Bodily fluids 1.5-2.5