Successful Lies

Friday, August 4th, 2006

David Friedman looks at some Successful Lies, like the study demonstrating that subliminal messages could get movie-goers to buy more snacks:

You see, Vicary lied about the results of his experiment. When he was challenged to repeat the test by the president of the Psychological Corporation, Dr. Henry Link, Vicary’s duplication of his original experiment produced no significant increase in popcorn or Coca-Cola sales. Eventually Vicary confessed that he had falsified the data from his first experiments, and some critics have since expressed doubts that he actually conducted his infamous Ft. Lee experiment at all.

What’s interesting is that the lie worked — and has kept on working:

What struck me as interesting about the account is that Vicary’s fraud worked. I don’t know what its long term effects were on his career, but the long term effect on our culture was to strengthen the idea that human beings are not all that rational, that what appears to be voluntary choice is often really due to fraud or coercion. Vicary’s flashing messages provide a memorable and convincing argument against freedom of choice on the marketplace, and one that I see echoed in many arguments. And the fraud continues to work long after it was exposed.

Margaret Mead’s Coming of Age in Samoa has had a similar effect:

It was a very popular book, widely used in college courses. Part of its implicit message was that the traditional pattern of sexual behavior in our society was a mistake — an unnecessary and damaging repression of natural impulses, as demonstrated by the happy and sexually liberated youth of Samoa. While the changes in sexual behavior during the course of the 20th century surely had multiple causes, it’s reasonable to view Mead’s book as one of them.

Many years later, Derek Freeman, in Margaret Mead and Samoa: The Making and Unmaking of an Anthropological Myth, convincingly argued that Mead’s entire account was bogus. Mead did not know the language when she arrived in Samoa, was not particularly skilled in languages, and it is at least debatable whether she ever became fluent. She did not live with the people she was studying but with an American family in the village. By Freeman’s account, she was heavily dependent on what she was told by a couple of teenaged informants through a translator; he thinks they were deliberately misleading her in the direction of what she wanted to believe, for their own entertainment. And she made no attempt to check the available crime statistics, which would have shown that her peaceful paradise had high rates of murder and rape.

Banlieue 13

Friday, August 4th, 2006

I’m a big fan of (watching) parkour, and this Banlieue 13 sequence is amazing.

The Novel Moscow Feared

Thursday, July 27th, 2006

John Miller explains that The Novel Moscow Feared was “the ur-text of science-fiction dystopias”:

Authors sometimes gripe about the long wait between the completion of a book and its publication. Perhaps the sad case of the Russian writer Yevgeny Zamyatin will help them put things in perspective: He finished his novel “We” in 1921, but it didn’t appear in print in his native land until 1988.

The problem wasn’t that Zamyatin and his manuscript were obscure or unknown. Rather, it was that they offended communist censors, who correctly understood “We” to be a savage critique of the totalitarianism that was starting to take shape in the years following the Russian Revolution.

They managed to suppress “We” inside the Soviet Union, but they weren’t able to keep it from making a deep impression elsewhere: Two of the most iconic novels in the English language — “Brave New World” by Aldous Huxley and “1984″ by George Orwell — owe an enormous debt to Zamyatin.

That’s because “We” is the ur-text of science-fiction dystopias: It described an Orwellian society almost three decades before Orwell invented his own version. Although the book has never been especially hard to find in the U.S. — editions have been in print since 1924 — it will now become even more readily available, thanks to Natasha Randall’s new translation, published this month by the Modern Library.

In case you don’t use the prefix ur- on a regular basis, here’s a definition:

Ur- is a German prefix meaning “prot(o)-”, “first”, “oldest”, “original” when used with a noun. In combination with an adjective, it can be translated as the intensifier “very”.

100 SF Books

Sunday, July 23rd, 2006

Theodore Sturgeon once defended science fiction, a genre that includes some truly awful works, by noting that “Ninety percent of everything is crud.” This instance of the Pareto principle is known as Sturgeon’s Law or Sturgeon’s Revelation.

Phobos Entertainment presents a list of 100 SF Books that fall into the non-cruddy 10 percent:

  1. Childhood’s End by Arthur C. Clarke
  2. Foundation by Isaac Asimov
  3. Dune by Frank Herbert
  4. Man in the High Castle by Philip K. Dick
  5. Starship Troopers by Robert A. Heinlein
  6. Valis by Philip K. Dick
  7. Frankenstein by Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley
  8. Gateway by Frederick Pohl
  9. Space Merchants by C.M. Kornbluth & Frederick Pohl
  10. Earth Abides by George R. Stewart
  11. Cuckoo’s Egg by C.J. Cherryh
  12. Star Surgeon by James White
  13. The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch by Philip K. Dick
  14. Radix by A.A. Attanasio
  15. 2001: A Space Odyssey by Arthur C. Clarke
  16. Ringworld by Larry Niven
  17. A Case of Conscience by James Blish
  18. Last and First Man by Olaf Stapledon
  19. The Day of the Triffids by John Wyndham
  20. Way Station by Clifford Simak
  21. More Than Human by Theodore Sturgeon
  22. Gray Lensman by E. E. “Doc” Smith
  23. The Gods Themselves by Isaac Asimov
  24. The Left Hand of Darkness by Ursula K. Le Guin
  25. Behold the Man by Michael Moorcock
  26. Star Maker by Olaf Stapledon
  27. The War of the Worlds by H.G. Wells
  28. 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea by Jules Verne
  29. Heritage of Hastur by Marion Zimmer Bradley
  30. The Time Machine by H.G. Wells
  31. The Stars My Destination by Alfred Bester
  32. Slan by A.E. Van Vogt
  33. Neuromancer by William Gibson
  34. Ender’s Game by Orson Scott Card
  35. In Conquest Born by C.S. Friedman
  36. Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny
  37. Eon by Greg Bear
  38. Dragonflight by Anne McCaffrey
  39. Journey to the Center of the Earth by Jules Verne
  40. Stranger in a Strange Land by Robert Heinlein
  41. Cosm by Gregory Benford
  42. The Voyage of the Space Beagle by A.E. Van Vogt
  43. Blood Music by Greg Bear
  44. Beggars in Spain by Nancy Kress
  45. Omnivore by Piers Anthony
  46. I, Robot by Isaac Asimov
  47. Mission of Gravity by Hal Clement
  48. To Your Scattered Bodies Go by Philip Jose Farmer
  49. Brave New World by Aldous Huxley
  50. The Man Who Folded Himself by David Gerrold
  51. 1984 by George Orwell
  52. The Strange Case of Dr. Jeckyl And Mr. Hyde by Robert Louis Stevenson
  53. Snow Crash by Neal Stephenson
  54. Flesh by Philip Jose Farmer
  55. Cities in Flight by James Blish
  56. Shadow of the Torturer by Gene Wolfe
  57. Startide Rising by David Brin
  58. Triton by Samuel R. Delany
  59. Stand on Zanzibar by John Brunner
  60. A Clockwork Orange by Anthony Burgess
  61. Fahrenheit 451 by Ray Bradbury
  62. A Canticle For Leibowitz by Walter Miller
  63. Flowers for Algernon by Daniel Keyes
  64. No Blade of Grass by John Christopher
  65. The Postman by David Brin
  66. Dhalgren by Samuel Delany
  67. Berserker by Fred Saberhagen
  68. Flatland by Edwin Abbot
  69. Planiverse by A.K. Dewdney
  70. Dragon’s Egg by Robert L. Forward
  71. Downbelow Station by C.J. Cherryh
  72. Dawn by Octavia E. Butler
  73. Puppet Masters by Robert Heinlein
  74. The Doomsday Book by Connie Willis
  75. Forever War by Joe Haldeman
  76. Deathbird Stories by Harlan Ellison
  77. Roadside Picnic by Boris Strugatsky & Arkady Strugatsky
  78. The Snow Queen by Joan Vinge
  79. The Martian Chronicles by Ray Bradbury
  80. Drowned World by J.G. Ballard
  81. Cat’s Cradle by Kurt Vonnegut
  82. Red Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson
  83. Upanishads by Various
  84. Alice in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll
  85. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams
  86. The Lathe of Heaven by Ursula K. Le Guin
  87. The Midwich Cuckoos by John Wyndham
  88. Mutant by Henry Kuttner
  89. Solaris by Stanislaw Lem
  90. Ralph 124C41+ by Hugo Gernsback
  91. I Am Legend by Richard Matheson
  92. Timescape by Gregory Benford
  93. The Demolished Man by Alfred Bester
  94. War with the Newts by Karl Kapek
  95. Mars by Ben Bova
  96. Brain Wave by Poul Anderson
  97. Hyperion by Dan Simmons
  98. The Andromeda Strain by Michael Crichton
  99. Camp Concentration by Thomas Disch
  100. A Princess of Mars by Edgar Rice Burroughs

I haven’t read the entire list — not by a long shot — but I can second many of the lists recommendations — and I can disagree with a few as well: Frankenstein and Snow Crash may be influential works, but they’re not necessarily good.

Stephen Colbert on Late Night with Conan O’Brien

Wednesday, July 19th, 2006

I admit that I enjoy it when Stephen Colbert geeks out with a D&D or Lord of the Rings reference, but on Late Night with Conan O’Brien a few nights ago, he really geeked out.

Liar’s Dice

Tuesday, July 18th, 2006

The recent Pirates of the Carribean movie involves a game of Liar’s Dice:

Each player is given five dice and cup to roll and hide them with. Players make successively higher declarations regarding the results of all the dice remaining in the game, e.g. “there are ten sixes”. However, someone can always contest the bid. When that happens, all the dice are revealed and either the bidder or the caller loses dice, depending on who was correct. The last player with dice is the winner.

Atlas Shrugged Movie

Saturday, July 15th, 2006

Evidently the Atlas Society held a summer seminar where the producers of the upcoming Atlas Shrugged Movie shared some details about the project:

  • The final go-ahead “deal” was signed on June 29. The film is well-capitalized, with Lionsgate — the studio that produced the most recent Oscar-winning film, “Crash” — investing $40 million or more for initial production effort.
  • The plan is for the film to be shot and shown in three parts, as a trilogy, like “Lord of the Rings.” Only that length, they said, would give sufficient scope to tell Ayn Rand’s long, complex story. (The initial $40 million would go mainly to Part I.)
  • The first draft of the script for Part I has been completed by James V. Hart, a veteran screenwriter among whose major credits are “Contact,” “Hook,” and “Tuck Everlasting.”

I’m not sure what to make of all this. Even with Angelina Jolie as the female lead, I have trouble imagining too many non-Randroids sitting through three epic movies — including one long speech — with no Orcs.

Jane Galt — who, amusingly, is not an Objectivist — points out the biggest question:

Who is John Galt? I nominate Brad Pitt, whose lovely golden incoherence seems just right for the bits that aren’t, well, a 150 page speech.

India Ink

Thursday, July 13th, 2006

India Ink describes Virgin Comics and Animation, founded by an unlikely group of business partners:

Deepak Chopra, the renowned self-help author; Richard Branson, whose Virgin Enterprises business empire covers travel, entertainment, mobile phones, lifestyle products, and, recently, space tourism; filmmaker Shekhar Kapur; and South Asian comics publisher Gotham Entertainment Group. The joint venture also includes Chopra’s son, Gotham.

Virgin Comics comprises three imprints:

The Shakti imprint, from the Sanskrit word for “power,” will tell stories illustrated in India and loosely based on Indian myth. It debuts July 12 with “Devi,” the story of a goddess reborn as a young woman who fights crime in modern Sitapur. Also slated to be released as part of the Shakti line are “Snakewoman,” created by Kapur about an L.A. woman possessed by a demon, and “The Sadhu,” the story of a young man who abandons enlightenment for revenge. The latter tale is written by Gotham Chopra, who was one of the executive producers of the Chow Yun-Fat film “Bulletproof Monk” and is chief creative officer at Virgin Comics.

A second imprint, Director’s Cut — named after a movie director’s preferred version of his or her film — will be devoted to comics by creators best-known for cinema. Famed Hong Kong director John Woo’s comic “Seven Brothers” will make its debut as part of the line later this summer. And the third imprint, Maverick Comics, will feature works by leading talents in the graphic-novel business.

Virgin Comics wants to follow up on the success of Marvel’s Spider-Man: India and to mimic the penetration of Japanese manga and anime into the American market.

Motion Picture Finance

Thursday, July 13th, 2006

Art De Vany explains some of the oddities of Motion Picture Finance:

It is not hard to see the non-Gaussian nature of the movies: Forrest Gump earned US theatrical revenues 10 standard deviations above the mean; Titanic earned revenues 20 standard deviations above the mean. These events would not occur in billions of reruns of the Earth’s history if events were Normally distributed. But, events occur on all scales, with no typical outcome in the movies. The mean is dominated by events of massive scale (“blockbusters”) and so is the sample average. The sample variance increases in the sample size and the theoretical variance is infinite. There is also a time-dependency in the statistics, partly because of the influence of extreme events. These and other properties are confirmation of Goldman’s proposition [that "nobody knows anything" in the movie industry]. The business is wildly uncertain and, for that reason, it offers unusual investment opportunities.

If you studied statistics in school, you likely did not study non-Gaussian distributions in great detail. Much of De Vany’s analysis revolves around Stable Distributions described by Mandelbrot, the mathematician famous for his work with fractals:

Mandelbrot was trying to model cotton prices. His analysis of historical data indicated that returns had sample distributions that were highly leptokurtic. They had “fat tails” that made extreme market moves more likely than would be predicted by the normal distribution. This phenomena has been observed before, and today we know it is typical of most asset returns—stock, bond, commodity and energy returns routinely exhibit leptokurtosis. This is particularly extreme for energy returns.

Mandelbrot didn’t want to have to assume one distribution for daily returns, another for monthly returns, and still another for annual returns. This would reduce any model to mere empirical distribution fitting. He wanted a consistent, flexible model that could be fit to different asset returns irrespective of the unit of time over which returns were calculated. This was possible with a model that assumed normally distributed returns, but normal distributions didn’t fit historical data well.

The problem was the central limit theorem, which tells us that sums of random variables will converge to a normal random variable.

(Read the rest of that article if you want to understand stable distributions.)

Why should investors be interested?

Another factor that distorts studio decisions is that, in this business, the variance is the key to high returns. The Sharpe ratio, variance over mean, that determines a lot of financial decision-making is infinite in the movie business. So, perhaps a lot of hedge funds stay away from the business. But, this is an error. The heavy tails make for the infinite variance and the higher than Gaussian probabilities of large events in these tails drive the mean. Heavier tails, more variance, larger outcomes, higher mean. It is not a Gaussian world and that property can be used to give investors a piece of these hugely profitable upper tail events. In a world where arbitrage has driven prices to low Sharpe ratios, an industry like the movies offers one of the best opportunities to gain higher returns.

His solution is to sell potential “upper tail” revenue streams on financial markets — like call options. Currently, top directors earn pay contingent on performance, but their contracts are illiquid and can’t be sold on the open market:

An example from the contingent contracting used to compensate top directors is illustrative. Such a contract might have break points such as: 1. 16.25% of gross proceeds less than or equal to $150 million 2. 17.5% of gross proceeds between $150 and $165 million 3. 18.5% of gross proceeds between $165 and $172.5 million 4. 20% of gross proceeds between $172.5 and $180 million 5. 22.5% of gross proceeds above $180 million. A complicated, but easily managed, non-linear contract.

Superpup

Monday, July 10th, 2006

After actor George Reeves committed suicide, the producers of the Superman TV show were desperate to find a replacement — which led to this screen test for Superpup, in which “little people” in costumes play anthropomorphic animal versions of Clark Kent (Bark Bent), Superman (Superpup), etc.

Electrocuting an Elephant

Sunday, July 9th, 2006

July 10, 2006 is the 150th anniversary of Nikola Tesla’s birth. Tesla developed the technology behind modern AC power and this led him to fight the “War of Currents” against Edison, who was selling DC power systems.

Edison went to great lengths to discredit Tesla’s superior AC power technology, including demonstrating the dangers of AC electrocution. He even made a short documentary film of alternating current Electrocuting an Elephant that needed to be put down.

The Last Island of the Savages

Tuesday, July 4th, 2006

Adam Goodheart describes The Last Island of the Savages:

Shortly before midnight on August 2, 1981, a Panamanian-registered freighter called the Primrose, which was traveling in heavy seas between Bangladesh and Australia with a cargo of poultry feed, ran aground on a coral reef in the Bay of Bengal. As dawn broke the next morning, the captain was probably relieved to see dry land just a few hundred yards from the Primrose‘s resting place: a low-lying island, several miles across, with a narrow beach of clean white sand giving way to dense jungle. If he consulted his charts, he realized that this was North Sentinel Island, a western outlier in the Andaman archi-pelago, which belongs to India and stretches in a ragged line between Burma and Sumatra. But the sea was too rough to lower the lifeboats, and so — since the ship seemed to be in no danger of sinking — the captain decided to keep his crew on board and wait for help to arrive.

A few days later, a young sailor on lookout duty in the Primrose‘s watch tower spotted several people coming down from the forest toward the h and peering out at the stranded vessel. They must be a rescue party sent by the shipping company, he thought. Then he took a closer look at them. They were small men, well-built, frizzy-haired, and black. They were naked except for narrow belts that circled their waists. And they were holding spears, bows, and arrows which they had begun waving in a manner that seemed not altogether friendly. Not long after this, a wireless operator at the Regent Shipping Company’s offices in Hong Kong received an urgent distress call from the Primrose‘s captain, asking for an immediate airdrop of firearms so that his crew could defend itself. “Wild men, estimate more than 50, carrying various home-made weapons are making two or three wooden boats,” the message read. “Worrying they will board us at sunset. All crew members’ lives not guaranteed.”

If the Primrose‘s predicament seemed a thing less of the twentieth century than of the eighteenth — an episode, perhaps, from Captain Cook’s Cook’s voyages in the Pacific — it is because the island where the ship lay grounded had somehow managed to slip through the net of history. Although its existence had been known for centuries, its inhabitants had virtually no contact with the rest of humanity. Anthropologists referred to them as “Sentinelese,” but no one knew what they called themselves — indeed, no one even knew what language they spoke. And in any case, no one within living memory had gotten close enough to ask. Whether the natives’ prelapsarian state was one of savagery or innocence, no one knew either.

The same monsoon-whipped waves that had driven the Primrose onto reef kept the tribesmen’s canoes at bay, and high winds blew their arrows off the mark. The crew kept up a twenty-four-hour guard with makeshift weapons — a flare gun, axes, some lengths of pipe — as news of the emergency slowly filtered to the outside world. (An Indian government spokesman denied reports in the Hong Kong press that the Sentinelese were “cannibals.” A Hong Kong government spokesman suggested that perhaps the Primrose‘s radio officer had “gone bananas.”) After nearly a week, the Indian Navy dispatched a tugboat and a helicopter to rescue the besieged sailors.

The natives of North Sentinel must have watched the whirring aircraft as it hovered three times above the great steel hulk, lowering a rope ladder to pluck the men safely back into modernity. Then the strange machines departed, the sea calmed, and the island remained, lush and impenetrable, still waiting for its Cook or its Columbus.

Some history:

In 1296 or thereabouts, Marco Polo described Andamanese generally as “a most brutish and savage race, having heads, eyes, and teeth like those of dogs. They are very cruel, and kill and eat every foreigner whom they can lay their hands upon.” Historians believe that he based this on hearsay, and did not visit the islands.

One night in 1771, an East India Company hydrographic survey vessel, the Diligent, passed by North Sentinel and sighted “a multitude of lights … upon the shore.” This is the first recorded mention of the island. The surveying party did not stop to investigate, however. In those days, bonfires still beckoned from hundreds of coasts, all over the world. The ship sailed on.

In 1867, toward the end of the summer monsoon season, an Indian merchantman, the Nineveh, was wrecked on the reef off North Sentinel. Eighty-six passengers and twenty crewmen got safely to the beach in the ship’s boat. On the morning of the third day, as these survivors sat down to a makeshift breakfast, they were suddenly attacked. “The savages were perfectly naked, with short hair and red painted noses, and were opening their mouth and making sounds like pa on ough; their arrows appeared to be tipped with iron,” the Nineveh‘s captain later reported. (The Sentinelese had probably scavenged the metal from flotsam on the beach, as they apparently still do today.) He had fled at the first shower of arrows and escaped in the ship’s boat, to be picked up several days later by a brig bound for Moulmein. The Andaman Islands were now officially part of the British Empire — they’d been settled as a penal colony — so a Royal Navy rescue party was dis-patched by steamer to the site of the wreck. It arrived to find that the Nineveh‘s passengers had managed to fend off their attackers with sticks and stones, and the savages had not been seen since.

In 1896, a Hindu convict escaped on a makeshift raft from the main penal settlement on Great Andaman Island. He drifted across thirty miles or so of open ocean and landed on the beach of North Sentinel. A search party found his body there some days later, pierced in several places by arrows and with its throat cut. No natives were sighted. After this, the island was left alone for nearly a century.

In the spring of 1974, North Sentinel was visited by a film crew that was shooting a documentary titled Man in Search of Man, along with a few anthropologists, some armed policemen, and a photographer for National Geographic. In the words of one of the scientists, their plan was to “win the natives’ friendship by friendly gestures and plenty of gifts.” As the team’s motorized dinghy made its way through the reefs toward shore, some natives emerged from the woods. The anthropologists made friendly gestures. The Sentinelese responded with a hail of arrows. The dinghy proceeded to a landing-spot out of arrow range, where the policemen, dressed in padded armor, disembarked and laid gifts on the sand: a miniature plastic automobile, some coconuts, a tethered live pig, a child’s doll, and some aluminum cookware. Then they returned to the dinghy and waited to observe the natives’ reaction to the gifts. The natives’ reaction was to fire more arrows, one of which hit the film director in the left thigh. The man who had shot the film director was observed laughing proudly and walking toward the shade of a tree, where he sat down. Other natives were observed spearing the pig and the doll and burying them in the sand. They did, however, take the cookware and the coconuts with evident delight.

In 1975, the exiled king of Belgium, on a tour of the Andamans, was brought by local dignitaries for an overnight cruise to the waters off North Sentinel. Mindful of lessons learned the year before, they kept the royal party out of arrow range, approaching just close enough for a Sentinelese warrior to aim his bow menacingly at the king, who expressed his profound satisfaction with the adventure.

Meet Hollywood’s Latest Genius

Tuesday, July 4th, 2006

In Meet Hollywood’s Latest Genius, physicist-screenwriter Leonard Mlodinow explains that “box-office success is more random than you may think”:

That no one can know whether a film will hit or miss has been an uncomfortable suspicion in Hollywood at least since novelist and screenwriter William Goldman enunciated it in his classic 1983 book “Adventures in the Screen Trade.” If Goldman is right and a future film’s performance is unpredictable, then there is no way studio executives or producers, despite all their swagger, can have a better track record at choosing projects than an ape throwing darts at a dartboard.

That’s a bold statement, but these days it is hardly conjecture: With each passing year the unpredictability of film revenue is supported by more and more academic research.

That’s not to say that a jittery homemade horror video could just as easily become a hit as, say, “Exorcist: The Beginning,” which cost an estimated $80 million, according to Box Office Mojo, the source for all estimated budget and revenue figures in this story. Well, actually, that is what happened with “The Blair Witch Project” (1999), which cost the filmmakers a mere $60,000 but brought in $140 million — more than three times the business of “Exorcist.” (Revenue numbers reflect only domestic receipts.)

What the research shows is that even the most professionally made films are subject to many unpredictable factors that arise during production and marketing, not to mention the inscrutable taste of the audience. It is these unknowns that obliterate the ability to foretell the box-office future.

Why is the movie business so upredicatble?

De Vany likes to illustrate the oddities of the film business by comparing films to breakfast cereal. If breakfast cereals were like films, he says, each time we visited the store we would find a large selection of new cereals, and only a few brands that survived from our last trip. Most of these cereals would languish unnoticed, but crowds would gather at certain parts of the aisle, scooping up the popular brands. And yet, within a few weeks, or at most months, even those popular brands would vanish from the shelves. And so our typical cereal breakfast would consist of a product we had never before tried, and very well might not like, but bought because we heard about it from friends or read of it in the newspaper cereal section.

That’s precisely how films behave in the marketplace. If we hear good things, we go and perhaps tell others; if we hear bad things, we stay away. It’s that process—the way consumers learn from others about the expected quality of the product—that De Vany found is the key to the odd behavior of the film business today. Economists call it an “information cascade.”

“People’s behavior is simple,” De Vany says, “but in the aggregate it leads to a complex system, a system bordering on chaos.”

Some examples:

“The executives at Warner Bros. didn’t think anyone wanted to watch a dark film about a woman boxer,” says Harvard’s Elberse. “They made ‘Million Dollar Baby’ because they have an ongoing relationship with Clint Eastwood.” And who hasn’t heard the tales of “Ishtar” (Warren Beatty + Dustin Hoffman + a $55-million budget = $14 million), or “Last Action Hero” (Arnold Schwarzenegger + $85 million = $50 million)? In 1972 a young director named George Lucas shot a film called “American Graffiti” (1973) for less than $1 million. Universal had doubts about the finished film that eventually took in $115 million, and even graver doubts about Lucas’ next idea. Lucas called the story “The Adventures of Luke Starkiller, as taken from ‘The Journal of the Whills.’ ” Universal called it “unproduceable.” Ultimately, Fox made the film, but its faith in the project only went so far — it paid Lucas only $100,000 to write and direct it; in exchange, Lucas received the sequel and merchandising rights. In the end, “Star Wars” took in $461 million on a budget of $11 million, and Lucas had himself an empire.

If it’s all random, why doesn’t it seem random?

One of the questions Kahneman liked to put to his subjects concerned the sequences in a coin toss. For instance, in a toss of seven coins, which of the following head-tail combinations is more likely to occur, HHHHTTT or HTHTTHT? Most people erroneously believe that the first sequence is less likely than the second, but the two sequences — and all other sequences of seven heads and tails — are equally probable.

Not only are people bad at recognizing random processes, they also are easily fooled into thinking they are controlling them. Sociologists first noticed this while observing gamblers in Las Vegas. Dice players, they noted, act as if tossing the dice is a game of skill. They throw them softly if they want low numbers, or hard for high ones. Much like Hollywood executives, gamblers have their theories about how to make lucky throws.

The temptation to believe that you or others are causing chance events is so strong that psychologists coined a term for it: the illusion of control. In a classic study, psychologists Ellen J. Langer and Jane Roth recruited Yale undergraduate psychology majors to watch an experimenter flip a coin 30 times. One by one, the subjects watched the coin flips and tried to guess how the coins would land. They found that, although students at an Ivy League university are surely aware that a coin toss is a random event, those who experienced the early winning streaks developed an irrational attitude of confidence that they were “good” at intuiting the coin toss. Forty percent said their results would improve with practice; 25% even reported that, if in the future they were distracted during the test, their performance would suffer.

God Save the Queen

Saturday, July 1st, 2006

It’s difficult as an American watching the English play in the World Cup to not hear My Country, ‘Tis of Thee every time the fans start singing the English national anthem, God Save the Queen:

God save our gracious Queen,
Long live our noble Queen,
God save the Queen:
Send her victorious,
Happy and glorious,
Long to reign over us:
God save the Queen.

God Save the Queen, incidentally, is the first song adopted as a national anthem — although it has never been officially adopted by Royal Proclamation or Act of Parliament.

The American lyrics:

My Country, ’tis of thee,
Sweet land of liberty,
Of thee I sing.
Land where my fathers died,
Land of the pilgrim’s pride,
From every mountainside
Let freedom ring.

Lady and the Lamp

Wednesday, June 21st, 2006

John Lasseter, of Pixar fame, went to the famous Cal Arts school, where he animated Lady and the Lamp:

Oddly, this was released on home video in the early 90′s. A company called Expanded Entertainment (a subsidiary of Animation Magazine), released a number of videos of indie animated shorts from some of their film festival compilations. This film was included on “Animation Celebration Vol. 2″.