Political Fatalities

Monday, March 22nd, 2010

As a rule, I don’t want to live anywhere with enough political fatalities to graph, like South Africa during the interregnum between the release of Nelson Mandela on the 11th of February, 1990 and his assumption of the office of South African President on the 10th of May, 1994:

Below is a time series of recorded political fatalities on a monthly basis from January 1985 to December 1996. Data is available for a 61 month period preceding the interregnum and a 31 month period succeeding it.


During the pre-interregnum average casualties reached 92 per month, during the interregnum an average monthly rate of 288 was recorded, an increase of 214%. During the post-interregnum period monthly casualties dropped to 81, a rate lower than the one recorded during minority rule. However when combining the pre-and post periods and comparing it with the interregnum one notices that during the transition period political casualties increased by 227% or 200 persons more per month. Prolonged interregnums clearly carry high social costs and efforts should be made in ensuring a rapid and stable succession.

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