Infanticide and Abortion

Sunday, August 4th, 2013

The Yanomamö practice infanticide — like many societies:

Dennett: Would you imagine discovering a behavior, a practice, a policy in a tribe that was so repugnant to Western sensibilities that you would decide not to write about that?

Chagnon: Well, the Yanomamö practice infanticide occasionally, and it’s for a variety of reasons. One of them being if they suspect that the newborn infant is deformed, and it can be traced right back to parental investment. Why invest in a losing prospect? Let’s terminate the infant now and start anew. Another example of infanticide is, this is even rarer, that some guy was cuckolded by, or suspected he was cuckolded by some other guy, and he puts pressure on his wife to kill the new infant. That’s not very common, but I’ve heard of it. And I began reporting, as soon as I learned this, that the Yanomamö practice infanticide, and I didn’t make a big case out of it. When I learned that a deputado in the Venezuelan government — which is basically like a representative or a senator — had learned that there were people in her country that were killing their own children, she wanted to go in and arrest these people and put them in jail. So I stopped reporting any information I acquired about Yanomamö infanticide, not because it was disgusting to Westerners, because I’ll bet if you looked at the abortion rate in Venezuela in middle class women, their rate of abortion would be much, much higher than the Yanomamö infanticide.

Pinker: Well, in fact, historically, I’ve seen an estimate — it averages over many peoples, and there’s a lot of variation underneath it — that the traditional infanticide rate was about 15 percent of live births, which is pretty close to the …

Chagnon: In Western culture?

Pinker: No No, in non-Western cultures. Which is pretty close to the abortion rate in the West, until recently.

Chagnon: Oh, really?

Pinker: The abortion rate has since then come down. But there is something to the idea that abortion in the West serves a similar purpose to infanticide in traditional cultures.

Chagnon: That’s right. It’s a definitional matter, so don’t get uptight about Yanomamö practicing infanticide when your sister or your wife has had an abortion. I mean if you want to make a moral issue out of it, let’s include everybody.

Policia

Saturday, August 3rd, 2013

The Yanomamö often find themselves caught in a cycle of violence, where each revenge killing demands another. Do they ever see the futility of their situation?

And the answer to that is best explicated in an incident that happened to me when the Yanomamö began being aware of Venezuelans, for example. It was a territorial capital 200+ miles away, and some of the missionaries sent young guys to the territorial capital to learn practical nursing to come back to the village and treat snake bites, and scratches, and wounds, and things like that, and to give them malaria pills. And they taught them how to use microscopes.

But one of these guys came back and he was just terribly excited when he told me that he discovered policia. I was like, “Well, what’s policia?” “They will grab people and haul them off and put them in these little separate houses, if they do something wrong. And I think we need policia, because my brother killed a man from Iwahikorobateri five years ago, and I’m always worried that the Iwahikorobateri are going to come and kill me, because he’s my brother.” And he thought that if they had law, law would be a good thing.

And ironically, the whole origin of anthropology began when early lawyers were astonished when they came to the New World and saw all of these huge populations living in harmony, and they couldn’t understand how they could do it. Well, kinship was part of the answer. But they began thinking seriously. Well, it goes back to Plato, too, about the origin of the state. But a lot of legal minds — in England and in the United States — were astonished that the political state could evolve out of primitive tribes like the American Indians.

How to Lose a War

Friday, August 2nd, 2013

We have many books and papers outlining how to win wars — including classics, such as Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, Thucydides’ The History of the Peloponnesian War, and Clausewitz’s On War — but we may get more mileage out of a primer on how to lose a war, Zen Pundit suggests:

  1. War is the Continuation of Domestic Politics
  2. Policy is the True Fog of War
  3. Strategy is a Constraint to be Avoided
  4. All Lost Wars are based on Self-Deception
  5. Isolate the War and those Fighting it from the People
  6. Complexity = Opacity and Micromanagement = Power
  7. Enormous Tail, Tiny Tooth: the Worse the ROI the Better
  8. Cultivate Hatred and Contempt
  9. Protect that Which is Most Unimportant
  10. Level the Playing Field: Paralyze Your Own Tactical Advantages

The Yanomamö Conundrum

Friday, August 2nd, 2013

The Yanomamö — the fierce people — don’t like to fight actually, Napoleon Chagnon says:

They prefer to be friendly, amicable, and live life in harmony. But they’re caught in a conundrum of the following sort. The only way you can live that nice happy free life is if you’re in a small community, like 25 people, most of whom are children. So everything is happy and friendly. People get along with each other. But a village of 25 people is extremely vulnerable to raids from the outside, and the men will come in and steal the women, and send the men packing, or shoot the men and take the women. So they’re constantly being pressured to maximize the size of their village. And as you increase the number of people in the village, you get increasing amounts of conflict.

[...]

And occasionally they’ll explain to me, I mean the question I always ask in all villages, why did such and such a group fission away from such and such a group? And occasionally they’ll say, “We’ve just got so damn many people that we’re on each other’s nerves all the time, so we just split apart.” But when the intensity of warfare is high, it would be really hazardous to split apart. And what I often found is, you know, the garden that might be 20 acres large, this is a big garden, and a fight might occur in the village that might be 200 people, and instead of picking up and moving the next valley over, they can’t, because they’re too dependent on their gardens. So they split the group into two parts, each locating in a different part of the garden. Then they begin transplanting their plantain cuttings, their banana cuttings, and tubers to some other location, maybe a day’s walk away, until they get that garden developed to the point that it can feed them. Then they move away. But they may rejoin and move away again.

[...]

Big villages lord over small villages. So if you’re seeking an ally who will protect you from the people up the hill who are bigger than you, you’re at a disadvantage because in order to get allies, you’ve got to give women to them. It’s an economics game where the smaller village has to pay up front for the privileges of the alliance, and the bigger village tends to default on many of its agreements. So big villages tend to exploit small villages. It’s always a good idea to live in a big village; however, it’s like living in a powder keg.

Pension Bombs

Thursday, August 1st, 2013

With Detroit’s bankruptcy in the news, the Grumpy Economist looks at the unfunded promises of public sector pensions — or pension bombs:

Maybe it would clear things up if pensions had to report a “shortfall probability” or “value at risk” calculation like banks do. OK, you are assuming an 8% discount rate because you’re investing in stocks. What’s the chance that your investments will not be enough? Coincidentally, when I saw Josh’s piece I was putting together a problem set for my fall class that illustrates the issue well.

Here is the distribution of how much money you will have in 1, 5, 10, and 50 years if you invest in stocks at 6% mean return, 20% standard deviation of return. I added the mean in black, the median (50% of the time you earn more, 50% less) and the results of a 2% risk free investment in green. (The geometric mean return is 4% in this example.)

Pension Bomb Analysis per Rauh

The mean return looks pretty good. After 50 years, you get $20 for every dollar invested, or contrariwise an accountant discounting a promise to pay $20 of pensions in 50 years reports that the present value of the debt is only $1. But you can see that stock returns (these are just plots of lognormal distributions) are very skewed. The mean return reflects a small chance of a very large payoff.

In these graphs the chance of a shortfall is 54, 59, 62, and 76% respectively. As horizon increases, you are almost guaranteed not to make the projected (mean) return! The median returns — with 50% probability of shortfall, in red — are a good deal lower. And the modal “most likely” return is below the risk-free rate in each case.

Rousseau is way off the mark

Thursday, August 1st, 2013

Rousseau is way off the mark, Napoleon Chagnon has found:

The important thing that I’ve discovered about the Yanomamö is the answer to the question of a lot of highly educated people in our society who say, “Oh, it would be so wonderful if we could just go back to an earlier time when life was so much simpler, and pleasant, and neighbors cooperated…” And what I found is the further back in time you go, the more that unpleasant things are ubiquitous in your environment. Violence is just around the corner, and wishing for a return to the noble savage past is possibly one of the biggest errors that one might make philosophically. I don’t think life in the state of nature was nearly as pleasant as a lot of people would like it to be.

One example I give from my travels across the United States: I happen to have been invited on a trip into the Grand Canyon by the man who was then Governor of Arizona, Fife Symington, and we had the park ranger, the archeologist for the Grand Canyon area, along with us, and he took us into parts of the Grand Canyon that most tourists don’t see. One of the most astonishing things we saw, Pueblo houses built into the edge of the Grand Canyon, with a 1,000-foot drop below, and these houses were occupied by prehistoric Indians who were so terrified of their neighbors that they’d climb down vines and ropes with their kids on their back, and firewood under their arm, and the day’s catch in their baskets, because they were just terrified of their neighbors. And that’s the way the Yanomamö live. Even the missionaries who have lived among the Yanomamö the longest have pointed out repeatedly to me and other people that these people are terrified of neighbors. It’s like Hobbe’s war of “all against all” in many respects, and Rousseau is way off the mark.

How Google Rediscovered the 19th Century

Wednesday, July 31st, 2013

Stanford history professor Paula Findlen has discovered what the neo-reactionaries have discovered: Google Books has made 19th-Century works widely available.

Reynolds’ Law

Wednesday, July 31st, 2013

Philo of Alexandria dubs it Reynolds’ Law:

The government decides to try to increase the middle class by subsidizing things that middle class people have: If middle-class people go to college and own homes, then surely if more people go to college and own homes, we’ll have more middle-class people. But homeownership and college aren’t causes of middle-class status, they’re markers for possessing the kinds of traits — self-discipline, the ability to defer gratification, etc. — that let you enter, and stay, in the middle class. Subsidizing the markers doesn’t produce the traits; if anything, it undermines them.

Comparing Vickies with Thetes

Monday, July 29th, 2013

Dave Ramsey shares 20 habits of the rich, including this one:

63% of wealthy parents make their children read 2 or more non-fiction books a month vs. 3% for poor.

Fifteen years ago, when Arnold Kling had a relocation web site, they acquired data on neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics, and the consumer purchase that most correlated with affluence was hardbound books.

By the way, Vickies are the neo-Victorians of Neal Stephenson’s near-future science-fiction novel, Diamond Age, and Thetes are the neo-Jersey Shore types.

American Slave Narratives

Monday, July 29th, 2013

Tempe Herndon DurhamFrom 1936 to 1938 the Works Progress Administration paid writers and journalists to interview former slaves, like 103-year-old Tempe Herndon Durham:

I was thirty-one years ole when de surrender come. Dat makes me sho nuff ole. Near bout a hundred an’ three years done passed over dis here white head of mine. I’se been here, I mean I’se been here. ‘Spects I’se de oldest n—– in Durham. I’se been here so long dat I done forgot near ’bout as much as dese here new generation knows or ever gwine know.

My white fo’ks lived in Chatham County. Dey was Marse George an’ Mis’ Betsy Herndon. Mis Betsy was a Snipes befo’ she married Marse George. Dey had a big plantation an’ raised cawn, wheat, cotton an’ ‘bacca. I don’t know how many field n—–s Marse George had, but he had a mess of dem, an’ he had hosses too, an’ cows, hogs an’ sheeps. He raised sheeps an’ sold de wool, an’ dey used de wool at de big house too. Dey was a big weavin’ room whare de blankets was wove, an’ dey wove de cloth for de winter clothes too. Linda Hernton an’ Milla Edwards was de head weavers, dey looked after de weavin’ of da fancy blankets. Mis’ Betsy was a good weaver too. She weave de same as de n—–s. She say she love de clackin’ soun’ of de loom an’ de way de shuttles run in an’ out carryin’ a long tail of bright colored thread. Some days she set at de loom all de mawnin’ peddlin’ wid her feets an’ her white han’s flittin’ over de bobbins.

Read the whole short narrative, but her conclusion stands out:

Freedom is all right, but de n—–s was better off befo’ surrender, kaze den dey was looked after an’ dey didn’ get in no trouble fightin’ an’ killin’ like dey do dese days. If a n—– cut up an’ got sassy in slavery times, his Ole Marse give him a good whippin’ an’ he went way back an’ set down an’ ‘haved hese’f. If he was sick, Marse an’ Mistis looked after him, an’ if he needed store medicine, it was bought an’ give to him; he didn’ have to pay nothin’. Dey didn’ even have to think ’bout clothes nor nothin’ like dat, dey was wove an’ made an’ give to dem. Maybe everybody’s Marse and Mistis wuzn’ good as Marse George and Mis’ Betsy, but dey was de same as a mammy an’ pappy to us n—–s.”

Height through the millennia

Saturday, July 27th, 2013

In looking at height through the millennia, Jason Collins came across Robert Fogel’s work on American slaves:

Historians had long insisted that slavery was not only inhuman; it was bad business — hungry, brutalized workers made the poorest of farmers. Fogel and Engerman found nearly the opposite to be true: Southern plantations were almost thirty-five per cent more efficient than Northern farms, their analysis showed. Slavery was a cruel and inhuman system, but more so psychologically than physically: to get the most work from their slaves, planters fed and housed them nearly as well as free Northern farmers could feed and house themselves. …

Steckel decided to verify his mentor’s claims by looking at the slaves’ body measurements. He went through more than ten thousand slave manifests — shipboard records kept by traders in the colonies — until he had the heights of some fifty thousand slaves; then he averaged them out by age and sex. The results were startling: adult slaves, Steckel found, were nearly as tall as free whites, and three to five inches taller than the average Africans of the time.

The height study both redeemed and rebuked “Time on the Cross.” Although the adult slaves were clearly well fed, the children were extremely small and malnourished. (To eat, apparently, they had to be old enough to work.) But Fogel was more than willing to stand corrected.

The Benefits of Monarchy

Friday, July 26th, 2013

Libertarian ex-Brit Matthew Feeney describes the benefits of monarchy:

The idea of monarchy is understandably abhorrent to many Americans. The policies of King George III of the House of Hanover were the source of the complaints outlined in the Declaration of Independence, and his intransigence led to the Revolutionary War. But it’s also true that a constitutional monarchy can provide a better check on political power than constitutional democracy. Before you accuse me of being anti-American, old fashioned, or some sort of red coat interloper, let me explain.

After winning the Revolutionary War the Founding Fathers created a system of government based on the principles of limited government. Their best intentions aside, the U.S. is no better than the despot against which it fought when it comes to inherited power, nepotism, abuse of political power, or extravagant tradition.

While it might initially seem that the men and women who sit in the House of Commons and the House of Lords act as a check on the powers of the British monarchy the reality is that the British monarch actually provides more of a check on the U.K’s elected and unelected legislators. In the last hundred years many European nations have experienced fascism, communism, and military dictatorships. However, countries with constitutional monarchies have managed for the most part to avoid extreme politics in part because monarchies provide a check on the wills of populist politicians. European monarchies–such as the Danish, Belgian, Swedish, Dutch, Norwegian, and British–have ruled over countries that are among the most stable, prosperous, and free in the world. Constitutional monarchs make it difficult for dramatic political changes to occur, oftentimes by representing traditions and customs that politicians cannot replace and few citizens would like to see overthrown.

Something else that can be said in favor of a constitutional monarchy is that it allows for the head of the state to not be a political figure. Whether Democrat or Republican, the American president represents the country as the head of state, meaning that regrettably American culture, traditions, or interests are never represented by anyone other than a politician. British interests have been represented for decades by the same person who embodies the non-political customs and traditions of the U.K. In the U.S., every four years America could be represented by someone who has a different sense of what it means to be an American than whoever previously lived in the White House.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Tolkien’s thoughts on Anarcho-Monarchism in the Shire.

Japanese Communist Mascots

Thursday, July 25th, 2013

The 91-year-old Japanese Communist Party has decided to rebrand itself with its own yuru-kyara, or cute mascots:

Mr. Tamura’s team and the ad agency pored over every detail of the proposed characters—from names to personalities. In one meeting, members discussed Master Poken, the constitutional expert, making him younger than initially proposed, and a martial-arts expert. In another, Mr. Tamura’s team decided the group needed a character to represent families with children. When the ad agency came up with the mother-of-ten Ikuko, Mr. Tamura says he was initially nonplused by the number of offspring.

Japanese Communist Mascots 1

“That was debated, but we ended up keeping it,” he says.

Japanese Communist Mascots 2

His favorite character is the Proliferation Bureau chief, a moon-faced figure whose lower body, and hairstyle, are shaped like megaphones.

Japanese Communist Mascots 3

Among the other characters are a purse that walks on its cheeks and discusses taxes, and a jolly sun that turns demonic when nuclear issues are discussed.

Japanese Communist Mascots 4

With the cartoon crew ready for action, there was one more concern: how the party’s older members would take some of the offbeat details.

Japanese Communist Mascots 5

“We were actually kind of worried initially that there might be a [negative] reaction from some older people,” says Mr. Tamura. “That didn’t happen at all. Rather, people were cheering us on do to more.”

Japanese Communist Mascots 6

Japanese Communist Mascots 7

Japanese Communist Mascots 8

Mr. C and Mr. K

Thursday, July 25th, 2013

Arnold Kling imagines a conversation between Mr. C and Mr. K — a classical economist (C) and Keynesian economist (K):

K: See that man, Uri, sitting on the bench over there? He is involuntarily unemployed.

C: How do you know that? Do you know his reservation wage? That is, do you know the lowest wage that he would accept to go to work? Do you know what his best offer has been?

K: Yes. He won’t work for less than $12 and hour, and his best offer has been $11.50

C: So he is not really unemployed. He has withdrawn from the labor force, because he can’t find a job that will pay him what he wants.

K: No, according to the Department of Labor, as long as he is looking for work, he is unemployed. Besides, in his last job, he earned $14 an hour and what he produced was worth $15 an hour. But when the economy went into a slump, the demand at his firm fell, and he was laid off. His problem is that there is a lack of effective demand.

C: I’m not sure what ‘effective demand’ means, but ok. What should Uri be doing instead of sitting on the bench?

K: He could be digging a ditch for the government.

C: But he’d rather be sitting on the bench. Why should he dig the ditch?

K: The government can pay him to dig the ditch. They can pay him $12 an hour.

C: If his ditch-digging is worth $12 an hour, that’s fine. The taxpayers should be happy to pay Uri to dig a ditch if it’s a worthwhile use of his time.

K: Actually, the ditch is not worth so much. Let’s say his ditch-digging is worth only $5 an hour. But this way, he’s working instead of sitting on a bench, and as taxpayers we benefit from the ditch.

C: No! As taxpayers, we pay $12 and hour for ditch-digging that is worth only $5 to us. That makes us worse off.

K: Would you rather pay unemployment benefits of $8 an hour and get nothing?

C: No….But if we are going to redistribute income to Uri, why not encourage him to take the offer for $11.50 and pay him just $.50 an hour as a subsidy to do that?

K: Hmmm. Not such a bad idea. But the ditch-digging puts more spending into the economy.

C: No it doesn’t. You give $12 to Uri to spend, but that $12 comes from those of us who pay taxes, and now we have $12 less to spend. It’s just a transfer.

It continues.

Because It Pays

Wednesday, July 24th, 2013

In 1911, Booker T. Washington wrote:

There is a class of colored people who make a business of keeping the troubles, the wrongs, and the hardships of the Negro race before the public. Having learned that they are able to make a living out of their troubles, they have grown into the settled habit of advertising their wrongs-partly because they want sympathy and partly because it pays. Some of these people do not want the Negro to lose his grievances, because they do not want to lose their jobs.

(Hat tip to Mark J. Perry.)