Bike Thief Lassoed

Monday, June 13th, 2016

Today’s feel-good story comes from a Wal-Mart parking lot in southern Oregon:

“I hear a lady yelling, ‘Stop him he stole my bike!’” Robert Borba tells NBC5 News.

The champion bull rider could tell the man was getting away, so he got backup.

“Grabbed Old Grey from the trailer and went for him.”

Rob Roque was landscaping at the big box store when it happened, snapping the pictures of the cowboy hero in action.

Cowboy with Roped Bike Theif

“He did it so well, I thought man he must be in a rodeo or something, it was perfect,” Roque says.

“I just roped him and the rope went down around his feet and I just rode off like I would if I’d roped a cow or something by myself,” Borba explains.

Borba held the man until Eagle Point police arrived, and then headed back to the farm to tend to his horses. And while his kids are proud to call him papa, he says he was just doing the right thing.

“Poor gals bike that could have been her only transportation,” Borba says, “stealing ain’t right so I figured get him stopped you know?”

Officers arrested the suspect, Victorino Sanchez, on a theft charge. He’s being held at the Jackson County Jail.

Ripe for Tyranny

Monday, June 13th, 2016

As this dystopian election campaign unfolds, Andrew Sullivan revisits Plato’s Republic:

It has unsettled — even surprised — me from the moment I first read it in graduate school. The passage is from the part of the dialogue where Socrates and his friends are talking about the nature of different political systems, how they change over time, and how one can slowly evolve into another. And Socrates seemed pretty clear on one sobering point: that “tyranny is probably established out of no other regime than democracy.” What did Plato mean by that? Democracy, for him, I discovered, was a political system of maximal freedom and equality, where every lifestyle is allowed and public offices are filled by a lottery. And the longer a democracy lasted, Plato argued, the more democratic it would become. Its freedoms would multiply; its equality spread. Deference to any sort of authority would wither; tolerance of any kind of inequality would come under intense threat; and multiculturalism and sexual freedom would create a city or a country like “a many-colored cloak decorated in all hues.”

This rainbow-flag polity, Plato argues, is, for many people, the fairest of regimes. The freedom in that democracy has to be experienced to be believed — with shame and privilege in particular emerging over time as anathema. But it is inherently unstable. As the authority of elites fades, as Establishment values cede to popular ones, views and identities can become so magnificently diverse as to be mutually uncomprehending. And when all the barriers to equality, formal and informal, have been removed; when everyone is equal; when elites are despised and full license is established to do “whatever one wants,” you arrive at what might be called late-stage democracy. There is no kowtowing to authority here, let alone to political experience or expertise.

Lincoln Memorial Ruins by Zohar Lazar

The very rich come under attack, as inequality becomes increasingly intolerable. Patriarchy is also dismantled: “We almost forgot to mention the extent of the law of equality and of freedom in the relations of women with men and men with women.” Family hierarchies are inverted: “A father habituates himself to be like his child and fear his sons, and a son habituates himself to be like his father and to have no shame before or fear of his parents.” In classrooms, “as the teacher … is frightened of the pupils and fawns on them, so the students make light of their teachers.” Animals are regarded as equal to humans; the rich mingle freely with the poor in the streets and try to blend in. The foreigner is equal to the citizen.

And it is when a democracy has ripened as fully as this, Plato argues, that a would-be tyrant will often seize his moment.

He is usually of the elite but has a nature in tune with the time — given over to random pleasures and whims, feasting on plenty of food and sex, and reveling in the nonjudgment that is democracy’s civil religion. He makes his move by “taking over a particularly obedient mob” and attacking his wealthy peers as corrupt. If not stopped quickly, his appetite for attacking the rich on behalf of the people swells further. He is a traitor to his class — and soon, his elite enemies, shorn of popular legitimacy, find a way to appease him or are forced to flee. Eventually, he stands alone, promising to cut through the paralysis of democratic incoherence. It’s as if he were offering the addled, distracted, and self-indulgent citizens a kind of relief from democracy’s endless choices and insecurities. He rides a backlash to excess—“too much freedom seems to change into nothing but too much slavery” — and offers himself as the personified answer to the internal conflicts of the democratic mess. He pledges, above all, to take on the increasingly despised elites. And as the people thrill to him as a kind of solution, a democracy willingly, even impetuously, repeals itself.

Asymmetric Motivation

Sunday, June 12th, 2016

The collapse of the Khitans brought about the fall of the Song Dynasty:

The Khitan emperor Tianzuo had been an awful monarch. He spent the whole time, literally every day out of the palace with his buddies hunting in the countryside. The administration and the army decayed with rampant corruption, and nobody took care to straight things out.

Now even if the Khitan ruling class were a bunch of corrupt slackers, the Khitan still should have had nothing to worry about. The Tanguts to their west was effectively a vassal state, they had them bought and controlled; and the Song down south were just not a threat. They hardly had a functional army. So the Khitans could have potentially kept being a failed state forever. Alas, they had trouble to their east.

Now to recap, the Khitans were a steppe people, and their language has been proven to be related to Mongol. So they were yet another tribe of Mongolian horse-archers.

The Khitans lived in the steppe just north of China proper, beyond the mountains that encircle Beijing today. East of that there’s the Manchurian plain, but that’s not steppe. That’s forest. You can’t herd livestock there. You can’t farm it either, it’s freezing cold. The Manchurian plain was the land of, well, the Manchus, but they were called Jurchen back then. The Jurchen came in many varieties, some more civilized than others. A branch of the Jurchen (called by yet another name) had established the Bohai kingdom way back, but the Liao had destroyed it back in the 920s. So all that expanse of land was now mostly Jurchen tribes, down to the border with Korea. The Khitans set up a series of fortresses to keep them quiet, and extorted regular tribute in form of fish, fur, falcons, and other local produce.

Again, the Jurchens weren’t herders. They were hunter-gatherers. Very efficient hunter-gatherers. They fished a lot. They hunted all the time. Steppe riders make strong armies because they are very good horse-archers. They ride all the time, and they hunt a lot. But Mongols hunt for sport, they eat domesticated livestock. They don’t really need to hunt. The Jurchens didn’t have a choice: hunting was how they good their food. They practiced every single day. The Jurchens were such good archers that the Khitans report being amazed at how a Jurchen man could shoot a target 200 meters away.

The Jurchens were a bunch of unruly tribes who hated each other, but in recent years the Wanyan clan had risen and subdued most of the Jurchen tribes in the area where today the city of Harbin is. Now, in normal circumstances the Khitan court shouldn’t have allowed that to happen. It’s easier to control a bunch of divided tribes than a unified ethnic group. The Wanyan clan worked case by case, sent spies and sycophants to court, raised the tribute sent to the Khitan aristocrats, and basically sold them that it was in their best interest that the Wanyan owned the whole area so they could better control the locals and produce fur and falcon more efficiently. The Khitan were very much into fur and falcon; you didn’t get far in Khitan aristocracy if you didn’t have a falcon to hunt. And the Jurchens also sent troops to help the court crack down on an internal rebellion by a Khitan rebel. And so the Khitan court stupidly look the other way while the Wanyan started what was in retrospect an obvious case of state formation of the Jurchen people.

Eventually the Jurchens founded a good excuse and rose in rebellion against the Liao. Remember the Jurchens were a hunting people. The rebelling army was at most 2500 men, while the Liao had hundreds of thousand of soldiers at their command. But premodern war isn’t a question of numbers. The Jurchens slowly grew by targeting other ethnic groups which were discontent with the Khitan. When the Khitan sent a 100,000 army to quash the rebellion, the Jurchen knew all about it. They assaulted the camp at night with 3,000 men, and killed everyone on sight, completely destroying the Khitan army.

Asymmetric motivation is a very powerful force in history. The Jurchens were few, but they were strong, and they were fighting for their people, to build a state and lord over others. They fought willingly because they had little to lose, and lots to gain. The Khitan soldiers had very little reason to risk their necks in fighting the Jurchens. Fighting China is fun, you get into China, kill a bunch of wimps, and get to grab their stuff. Silk, pots, gold, women! But fighting the fierce Jurchens? What are you gonna grab from them? Smelly leather boots? The Khitan were no match for the Jurchens, who in no time took over all the fortresses in the Manchurian plains, and were dangerously close of the Khitan capital.

News of the Khitan troubles got to China’s capital. Our artist emperor was of course ecstatic. At last! We should take advantage of that. All the sycophantic ministers proposed making an alliance with the Jurchens. Let them take all the barbarian land they wanted, in exchange of the Song taking back the northern edge of the Chinese plain and the mountain passes. The Jurchens agreed, but stipulated that the Song had to take the land they wanted by themselves. The Jurchens weren’t going to do the job for them. Thus a formal alliance was achieved.

The whole thing stunk. For better or worse, Song China and the Khitan Liao Dynasty had been in peace for 100 years. The Khitans could’ve kicked Chinese ass any time they wanted, but they respected the treaty. Now that the Khitans were in trouble, the Chinese didn’t wait a minute in betraying the treaty and stabbing them in the back. That wasn’t a very nice thing to do. It wasn’t very smart either.

Nobody told Huizong that, though, who was still having fun playing soccer and visiting hookers through his secret tunnel. In 1121 He ordered his closest eunuch, Tong Guan, who is famous as the only bearded eunuch in Chinese history, to command 150,000 troops and go straight to the southern capital of the Khitans, what is today Beijing. The Khitans in their steppe homeland were running from the Jurchens as fast as they could; surely they wouldn’t hold in the south very long either.

But the Chinese were still just no match for the Khitans. The Khitan commander in the south, Yelu Dashi, who was also perhaps the most incredible heroes in this story, held the walls, struck back at the Song forces, and destroyed the whole army. 150,000 men, gone. The whole Song army vanished in what was supposed to be a cakewalk. The eunuch commander panicked. He couldn’t just go back and say he didn’t take the land! They execute you for that stuff. So he sent an envoy to the Jurchens, saying: “Hey, we’re having some trouble here conquering the city. Why don’t you come down yourselves and take it, in exchange you can have all the booty: the gold, the women, the children, take them all. We’ll pay for all supplies you need. After you’re done you leave and we’ll take the land as agreed, right?”.

Well, why not. The Jurchens found it to be a good deal, so they came back through the mountain passes, and conquered Beijing in a week. Grabbed the gold and valuables, took the local women as concubines, took the children as slaves, sent them back to the Jin capital, close to today’s Harbin.

The Monasteries of America

Sunday, June 12th, 2016

Z Man describes the monasteries of America:

Storing up knowledge in books at a monastery is fine, but passing them around so others can learn and expand upon what’s in those books is how civilization flourishes. Those monks copying old texts were increasing the mass of human understanding. Copying Aristotle meant that the copy could be sent to another monastery to be read and copied again. It also meant more men exposed to Aristotle, and not just in the monasteries. The nobility were able to build libraries too.

The thing about the medieval system was that it was tightly bound by Catholicism on one end and the state on the other. Intellectual life had to appeal to the king and the Church. In this regard, the Church served another key role. They vetted and filtered the books that were produced, thus they controlled the knowledge of the society. The crown may have had a monopoly of force, but the Church gave it legitimacy and an intellectual structure through which to rule.

We like to think that the modern age is a time when information flows freely around society, unencumbered by the state or powerful interests. Colleges and universities are endlessly going on about having free speech and open debate. Journalists insist their job is to speak truth to power, which means saying things that are outside the approved list of truths. Even so-called conservatives bang on about the glories of free and open dialogue, usually while they denounce Donald Trump.

The truth is, the monastery system is still with us. Instead of the crown financing the learning centers, it is billionaires, corporations, non-governmental organizations and international bodies. Instead of monasteries, we have think tanks, research centers and foundations. All of which are “not for profit” which means contributions are tax deductible. The rich pay themselves for supporting the organizations that exist to promote the interests of the rich and powerful.

All around Washington DC, there are organizations, like American Enterprise Institute, that are financed by rich people to pump out papers, books, commentary and experts to populate TV and radio. If you look at their 990 filing, you see that the guy in charge made $700K in compensation. Board members made six figures, with most in the mid-200’s. Charles Murray made $270K just from this one job. His books, speaking fees and so forth probably double that number. Being a “thinker” pays well.

AEI is a big foot operation, but there many smaller ones too. The Fund for American Studies funds journalists and reporters with grants. The list of programs on their 990 is mostly benign stuff that sounds nice. Then you see the long list of trustees. The one name that jumps out is Fred Barnes who took $25K for his troubles. One of the benefits of being a journalist, who plays ball, is you get to sit on boards at these non-profits. Some pay more than others, but it is easy to see how it can add up.

Then there is the magazine rackets. National Review has a thing called the National Review Institute. Notice how they always call their people “fellow” to give it that academic feel. Their 990 is not very interesting, but NRI is mostly a clearing house. The director makes $200K a year, in case you’re curious. That’s small potatoes compared to John Podhoretz, who takes over $400K in salary from Commentary Magazine, another non-profit operation.

Of course, it’s not just indigenous billionaires paying these people to promote them in the press. Foreign governments get in on the act too. The government of Malaysia famously bought favorable coverage from conservative media a few years ago. You may recognize the name Ben Domenech from that article. He writes for the Federalist and was in on the anti-Trump crusade. He also got jammed up in a plagiarism scandal, yet he somehow remains in good standing with conservative media.

My favorite, I think, is Brent Bozell, who Mike Cernovich has been going after on Twitter. Bozell runs a racket called the Media research Center. It’s supposed to police the media for bias. Brent makes $400K for his trouble, that’s when he is not penning anti-Trump pieces for Breitbart. No one should begrudge Bozell his money, but when the media watchdog is paid by the same people funding the media, it’s hard to take him seriously.

The reality is our opinion makers are all kept men. They are the monks and clergy of our age, shaping intellectual life and setting the limits of what is and what is not permitted in the public sphere. This is done mostly to promote their own position, but financed by the donor class, on whose behalf the monks and priests of the commentariat work. When you are living the 1% lifestyle, you’re not about to rock the boat by speaking truth to power.

The reason they are fainting over Trump and the rise of the Alt-Right is the same reason the Church panicked over Martin Luther. The difference is Jan Hus is an army of bloggers and writers on-line using the megaphones of social media.

Young Monarchs Are Trouble

Saturday, June 11th, 2016

When Shenzong ascended to the throne in 1068, the Song Dynasty began its descent:

The guy was 19 years old. If 3000 years of Chinese monarchy have produced any lesson, the lesson is that young monarchs are trouble. They always are. Young people are by definition inexperienced, so they tend to do stupid stuff. And generally, young men like to fight. They are eager to fight. It’s in their blood. Sometimes that turns out well, as Han Wudi who basically tripled the territory of China in 30 years and crushed every single army around it. But usually young emperors pick fights without thinking, and the outcome is catastrophic.

Huizong’s father was livid at how his dynasty was so small, so much smaller than the previous ones. Vietnam lost! The Northwest lost! [...] You give the reigns of power to a 20 year old kid and of course he wants war.

The mandarins weren’t having it, though. Your majesty, you see, we signed treaties with all these people. We can’t just go and attack them just like that. And you know, your great grandfather weakened the army for this and that reason. Please don’t be so rash. It’ll be ok.

But the young emperor wasn’t having it. If these mandarins didn’t want war, he’d find some who did. By this time the Imperial Examinations had been going on for a 100 years. And for all its benefits, the imperial examination system had been producing more grads than there were official positions available. There was a pretty big cohort of frustrated intellectuals who wanted a government position but couldn’t get that. Interestingly the court paid a salary to all examination grads, even if they didn’t have an official job. But that didn’t help morale either. They wanted to do something, to prove their worth. A textbook example of elite overproduction. Eventually the emperor found a mandarin who was willing to play ball. He found Wang Anshi.

Wang Anshi sent a letter to the emperor telling that he knew exactly what to do to beat the evil barbarians, and that all the problems had been caused by evil mandarins who only thought of themselves. Wang Anshi had a far ranging plan of legal reforms, which amounted to the invention of Socialism. Yes, the Chinese also invented Socialism.

Wang Anshi argued that the tribute to barbarians had caused an increase in taxes which was oppressing the peasantry, and that rich landlords were making all the money. He basically ordered the nationalization of everything. Agricultural loans were to be done by the state; a welfare system was instituted for the old and the poor, prices were fixed, wages raised, speculation and monopolies forbidden by law. The raised revenue were to be used to reform the army and beat the barbarians.

Young emperor of course loved all this stuff. But the mandarins were really not having it. It was against them that all these reforms were aimed to. Landlords made their money by scamming the peasantry, giving them loans to buy seed, then buying grain at bottom rock prices when the harvest came all at once. All those commercial monopolies were also owned by mandarin families. This reform basically destroyed their fancy livelihoods, and they weren’t going to go down that easily. An extremely harsh factional fight paralized the whole government. Most of the mandarinate just wasn’t enforcing the new laws. Wang Anshi responded by removing all traditional checks on power and basically setting a dictatorship, and putting his own people in all important positions, reforming the very examination system so that future grads would be on his faction by default.

But the policies were just not working. Farming loans were being done by the government; so now the local officials became the landlords, and made money under the table for themselves. Local officials weren’t usually people of the land, so they extracted money even more viciously than the landlords, who had to be minimally nice to keep their local reputation. Government loans were set up to be lower than what landlords used to charge; but officials were actually forcing peasants to take loans even if they didn’t need them! Bureaucrats had quotas to meet, you know. So grab this super-low 20% interest loan now, or else. Ah, socialism.

The conservatives of course also took care to sabotage everything that the government was trying to do. They were pretty fond of their privileges, mind you. Eventually a famine happened, the local officials botched it, and the conservatives took the chance to blame it everything on Heaven’s displeasure with the damn socialists. The army reforms also didn’t go anywhere. As the rest of the world learned 900 years later: socialism doesn’t work because government officials are also people. It could have worked out if Wang Anshi had an army of devoted followers and 50 years to implement the whole thing. But he didn’t; all he had was his good prose and the favor of a dumb emperor. The whole thing barely lasted 5 years.

What it did do was completely destroy the stability of government.

Insanity is not subtle

Saturday, June 11th, 2016

Insanity is not subtle, Bruce Charlton explains:

I spent a year in the 1980s working as a psychiatrist participating in the admissions rota where I would cover all the medical work necessary in a large hospital overnight or at weekends.

Quite a few of the patients were brought in by the police, by ordinary police officers — who had been called to some incident and recognized that the person involved was ‘mad not bad’, and so brought them in for psychiatric evaluation instead of putting them into the cells.

The police were never wrong, in my experience. The people they brought in were always crazy — it was just a matter of sorting out what kind of crazy. In other words, an ordinary policeman was able to tell when somebody was insane — it was a matter of common sense (plus relevant experience).

The Song Golden Age

Friday, June 10th, 2016

The Song Dynasty (960-1279) was the most wealthy and successful of all Chinese dynasties:

Not to date; the best dynasty, period. Better than anything than came later. Richer, more urbanized, and arguably with better technology. The Song Dynasty had machinery that the Qing Dynasty didn’t have in the 19th century. The Song economy had huge foreign trade links, and the Song government in 1000 again had higher revenues than the Chinese government in 1900.

Some argue that that was the result of better governance. As seen in the previous post, the Song had solved an eternal problem of Chinese governance: how to deal with the military and the aristocracy. The solution they took was to screw them both, and put the government completely in hands of the bureaucracy. They set up their model civil examination system, reduced the number of eunuchs to a minimum, took care the armies in the provinces didn’t get too big, kept most of the imperial family in the capital so they didn’t develop territorial power. I wonder if urban life was also meant to keep them busy having fun while depressing their fertility. Not a bad research idea.

[...]

The Song was by far the smallest and weakest of all Chinese dynasties.

They didn’t care though: they were swimming in money. Losing access to the Silk Road forced them to trade by sea: and surprise, maritime trade is much more profitable! The Song Dynasty had higher revenues in 1000 than the Qing dynasty had in 1900. Their technology boomed: by some accounts the Song had better machinery than the Qing 800 years later. Urbanization rates were also the highest China ever saw until the 20th century.

The Song were weak, but they were rich: they decided it was cheaper to pay off the barbarians than to keep an army to fight them. And it was true. What were the barbarians going to do with all that silver anyway? They naturally spent it in buying stuff from China. So the silver went away as tribute, and came back as trade. Better than to keep an army of uppity generals and risk that they stage a rebellion or blackmail the court every now and then. While a section of the bureaucracy was against such a dishonorable treaty, the smartest Mandarins knew that in order to keep running the government they’d better pay off the barbarians and keep the military from having any influence at court.

It was a massive diplomatic coup. It worked brilliantly. The Khitan were actually fairly civilized people. They were literate in Chinese, developed their own script based on it, run a fairly sophisticated state apparatus. The problem between nomadic herders and settled farmers is that nomadic life is hard. It’s hard to live off animal products only. Nomads also want grain, cloth, paper, tea, you know, nice stuff. The only way of getting it is to trade or to take it by force. But the Khitan managed to invade a small bunch of Chinese land. It was enough for them; they got their small territory of Chinese land, full of Chinese farmers to make grain for them, Chinese scribes to run their government for them. The Khitan kept their capital north of the mountains, enjoyed their hunting and herding, and as long as the Song kept sending silver and silk, they respected a peace that lasted a 100 years.

The weakness of the Song solved the Mongol problem, allegedly for the price of the tax income of a single province. The army didn’t like it, but the army could go to hell. At the Song it was the mandarins who run things. And they were doing a mighty fine job. The population doubled to more than 100 million people. Printing was invented and developed into a national industry, as well as gunpowder. Art and literature also developed beyond anything previous. It was a Golden Age. Some people say the Song were on the breach of undergoing a capitalist revolution.

Psychedelics Make People Weird

Friday, June 10th, 2016

Early psychedelic research took in brilliant scientists and spit out crazy weirdos:

A 2011 study found that a single dose of psilocybin could permanently increase the personality dimension of Openness To Experience. I’m emphasizing that because personality is otherwise pretty stable after adulthood; nothing should be able to do this. But magic mushrooms apparently have this effect, and not subtly either; participants who had a mystical experience on psilocybin had Openness increase up to half a standard deviation compared to placebo, and the change was stable sixteen months later. This is really scary. I mean, I like Openness To Experience, but something that can produce large, permanent personality changes is so far beyond anything else we have in psychiatry that it’s kind of terrifying.

(Related: 1972 study finds LSD may cause permanent increase in hypnotic susceptibility, which other sources have linked to being “fantasy prone” and “creative”)

And that’s one dose. These researchers were taking psychedelics pretty constantly for years, and probably experimented with the sort of doses you couldn’t get away with giving research subjects. What would you expect to happen to their Openness To Experience? How many standard deviations do you think it went up?

It seems possible to me that psychedelics have a direct pharmacological effect on personality that causes people to be more open to unusual ideas. I know this is going against most of the latest research, which says psychedelics have no long-term negative mental health effects and do not cause psychosis. But there’s a difference between being schizophrenic, and being the sort of guy who is still a leading neuroanatomist but also writes books about the geometric relationships between consciousness and the space-time continuum.

I’m not sure anyone has ever done studies to rule out the theory that psychedelics just plain make people weird. Indeed, such studies would be very difficult, given that weird people with very high Openness To Experience are more likely to use psychedelics. This problem would even prevent common sense detection of the phenomenon – even if we noticed that frequent psychedelic users were really weird, we would attribute it to selection effects and forget about it.

In this situation, the early psychedelicists could be a natural experiment giving us data we can’t get any other way. Here are relatively sober scientists who took psychedelics for reasons other than being weird hippies already. Their fate provides signal through the noise which is the general psychedelic-using population.

A Good Priority to Have

Thursday, June 9th, 2016

Chinese history is great, Spandrell says:

It’s long, it’s well documented, and it’s documented in explicitly moralistic terms. Chinese thought has been always focused in how to achieve good governance, and histories are written as to contain parables of what good government is, and what bad government leads to. [...] Good government leads to nice things. Bad government leads to death and misery. That’s all Chinese intellectuals have ever cared about. I think it’s a good priority to have.

Larry Page’s Secret Flying Car Factories

Thursday, June 9th, 2016

We were promised flying cars, and Larry Page is funding two companies to make that promise come true:

The Zee.Aero headquarters, located at 2700?Broderick Way, is a 30,000-square-foot, two-story white building with an ugly, blocky design and an industrial feel. Page initially restricted the Zee.Aero crew to the first floor, retaining the second floor for a man cave worthy of a multibillionaire: bedroom, bathroom, expensive paintings, a treadmill-like climbing wall, and one of SpaceX’s first rocket engines—a gift from his pal Musk. As part of the secrecy, Zee.Aero employees didn’t refer to Page by name; he was known as GUS, the guy upstairs. Soon enough, they needed the upstairs space, too, and engineers looked on in awe as GUS’s paintings, exercise gear, and rocket engine were hauled away.

Zee.Aero now employs close to 150 people. Its operations have expanded to an airport hangar in Hollister, about a 70-minute drive south from Mountain View, where a pair of prototype aircraft takes regular test flights. The company also has a manufacturing facility on NASA’s Ames Research Center campus at the edge of Mountain View. Page has spent more than $100 million on Zee.Aero, say two of the people familiar with the company, and he’s not done yet. Last year a second Page-backed flying-car startup, Kitty Hawk, began operations and registered its headquarters to a two-story office building on the end of a tree-lined cul-de-sac about a half-mile away from Zee’s offices. Kitty Hawk’s staffers, sequestered from the Zee.Aero team, are working on a competing design. Its president, according to 2015 business filings, was Sebastian Thrun, th­e godfather of Google’s self-driving car program and the founder of research division Google?X. Page and Google declined to speak about Zee.Aero or Kitty Hawk, as did Thrun.

World War II as Lord of the Rings

Thursday, June 9th, 2016

Tolkien said that The Lord of the Rings was not an allegory, and it especially wasn’t an allegory of World War II.

What would World War II have looked like, Bruce Charlton asks, if it had played out like The Lord of the Rings?

The plot would focus on the destruction of the Atom Bomb (and implicitly all knowledge required to make it) by a small team of English patriots led by George Orwell, who infiltrate Germany and destroy the evil research establishment which is making the A-bomb.

The climactic end would be the death of Hitler (as the ready-for-use prototype explodes?) and the end of the Nazi regime in Germany with the return of the Holy Roman Emperor.

En route there would be the destruction of Soviet Communism, the restoration of the Tsar, and the exile of Stalin. Stalin then makes his way to England, is welcomed by the corrupt Socialist Prime Minister, Konni Zilliacus; then Stalin invites foreign mercenaries, takes over in a secret coup, enslaves the native English and manages to pollute or destroy much of the countryside before Orwell and his English patriots return and raise a successful counter-revolution; after which Stalin is stabbed by his deputy Lavrentiy Beria — who is immediately executed by a mob of pitchfork-wielding rustics (despite Orwell’s protests).

England repudiates industrialization, is demilitarized, sealed against immigration, and made into a clan-based dominion ruled by benign hereditary aristocrats; and made a protected nation under the personal care of the restored King Albrecht — the exiled Duke of Bavaria, and heir to the US monarchy, who had been given the throne by popular acclaim during the course of the war, and is now ruling from his palace in Richmond, Virginia.

Orwell, traumatized and made consumptive by his wartime experiences, sails West toward the sunset in a small boat and eventually arrives in… Ireland; where he ends his days peacefully as a subsistence crofter…

No wonder, then, that Tolkien cordially disliked allegory, in all its manifestations.

Roddenberry and Heinlein

Wednesday, June 8th, 2016

Manu Saadia argues (in Trekonomics) that Roddenberry’s Star Trek was “above all, a critique of Robert Heinlein“:

According to Roddenberry himself, no author has had more influence on The Original Series than Robert Heinlein, and more specifically his juvenile novel Space Cadet. The book, published in 1948, is considered a classic. It is a bildungsroman, retelling the education of young Matt Dodson from Iowa, who joins the Space Patrol and becomes a man. There is a reason why Star Trek’s Captain Kirk is from Iowa. The Space Patrol is a prototype of Starfleet: it is a multiracial, multinational institution, entrusted with keeping the peace in the solar system.

Where it gets a little weird is that Heinlein’s Space Patrol controls nuclear warheads in orbit around Earth, and its mission is to nuke any country that has been tempted to go to war with its neighbors. This supranational body in charge of deterrence, enforcing peace and democracy on the home planet by the threat of annihilation, was an extrapolation of what could potentially be achieved if you combined the UN charter with mutually assured destruction. And all this in a book aimed at kids.

Such was the optimism Heinlein could muster at the time, and compared to his later works, Space Cadet is relatively happy and idealistic, if a bit sociopathic. It makes a lot of sense that it had inspired Roddenberry. In Space Cadet, Heinlein portrayed a society where racism had been overcome. Not unlike Starfleet, the Space Patrol was supposed to be a force for good. The fat finger on the nuclear trigger makes it a very doubtful proposition, however. The Space Patrol, autonomous and unaccountable, is the opposite of the kind democratic and open society championed by Star Trek.

The hierarchical structure and naval ranks of the first Star Trek series were geared to appeal to Heinlein’s readers and demographic, all these starry-eyed kids who, like Roddenberry himself, had read Space Cadet and Have Spacesuit — Will Travel. Star Trek used all the tropes of Heinlein but sanitized them. For instance, racial and gender equality were prominent features of Heinlein’s stories. Nobody cared about your sex or the color of your skin as long as you were willing to sign up for the Space Patrol or the Federal service. Starship Troopers‘ hero, Juan “Johnny” Rico, was Filipino. In that regard, Heinlein had undoubtedly paved the way for The Original Series’ integrated crew. From Space Cadet onward, he made it a new norm in science fiction that people of color and women (as in Starship Troopers) could also be protagonists.

Spiritual Security

Wednesday, June 8th, 2016

All states have a state religion:

If your state religion is controlled by a hostile state, you are toast. That is spiritual insecurity. The official state religion of most states is progressivism, and their progressivism is controlled by the NGOs, which are controlled by the US State Department, which is controlled by Harvard in pretty much the same way the US supreme court is controlled by Harvard. (Sometimes the president makes minor, and usually ineffectual and unsuccessful, efforts to influence the US State Department. If he gets too stubborn about it, the media demonize him.)

Back in the 1400 and 1500s the Pope was in the pocket of the Holy Roman Emperor and/or the King of Spain, and a lot of states were at war or near war or cold war with the Holy Roman Emperor and/or the King of Spain. These states found that the Pope was getting up their noses. They found Martin Luther handy to protect themselves from papism, which eventually led to the bloody holy wars of the Protestant Reformation west of the Hajnal line. Being Roman Catholic was spiritual insecurity – you were apt wind up incorporated in the almost universal empire of the triple crown.

More recently Jomo Kenyatta complained during the twentieth century: “When the Missionaries arrived, the Africans had the land and the Missionaries had the Bible. They taught how to pray with our eyes closed. When we opened them, they had the land and we had the Bible.” That is spiritual insecurity.

China has a big problem with progressivism and assorted Christian sects, many of which smell suspiciously like the State Department, discovering in the New Testament that gay sex is sacred, and husbands should obey their wives. The obvious solution is state sponsored Confucianism Manchesterized, or state sponsored Manchesterism Confucianized, but they are hesitant and confused. What exactly is their state religion? Supposedly it is Maoism, but Maoism is just not that credible these days, and they don’t particularly wish it was credible. They are half decided to go with Confucianism, but what sort of Confucianism? They are not sure. In the recent confrontation in Hong Kong, the police backed the protestors against the government, siding with the US state department against Peking. Such is the power of faith. Hong Kong suffers severely from spiritual insecurity. The authorities in Peking need to decide on something that is credible, persuasive, and sane, and go with that, for right now China is spiritually insecure. The state department plots a “democratic” takeover of China. If what happened in Hong Kong had happened in Peking, China would be ruled by the State Department and looted by Wall Street the way Russia was after the fall of communism.

[...]

There are no large scale hierarchical organized Christian religions in the west that seriously dissent from the State Department line that all religions, rightly understood, are the same religion, and that religion is progressivism.

Scott Adams is Insane

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

In order to be an effective persuader, Scott Adams suggests, you must embrace the idea that common sense is an illusion:

And you must understand that humans rarely (if ever) do anything because of logic and reason. The part of us we consider rational is in reality a rationalizer. Your mind is creating little movies in which you are the star.

In a Hoffman type of reality, where we all experience our own version of the truth, you can see how affirmations might be less about magical thinking and more like a mental tool to edit the movie you are experiencing as your life. When you focus on the future you want, the result is self-persuasion, and perhaps that is enough in a Hoffman universe to write the upcoming scenes in your movie.

That is essentially how I experience my reality. I focus on whatever I want, and I imagine it as vividly as I can, as often as I can, and for some reason it happens. If you know anything about my history, you know it is filled with unlikely events that somehow conspired to get me everything I want. My experience violates everything that humans typically assume about reality. And that’s just the stuff you know about. Trust me when I say my daily experience is so far above normal that I literally can’t tell you about it without being labelled insane.

The Post-Imperial Moment

Tuesday, June 7th, 2016

World disorder will only grow, Robert Kaplan argues:

The weakening and dissolution of small- and medium-size states in Africa and the Middle East will advance to quasi-anarchy in larger states on which the geographic organization of Eurasia hinges: Russia and China. For the external aggression of these new regional hegemons is, in part, motivated by internal weakness. They’re using nationalism to assuage the unraveling domestic economies upon which their societies’ stability rests. Then there is the European Union, which is enfeebled, if not crumbling. Rather than a unified and coherent superstate, Europe will increasingly be a less-than-coherent confection of states and regions, dissolving into the fluid geography of Eurasia, the Levant and North Africa. This is demonstrated by Russian revanchism and the demographic assault of Muslim refugees. Of course, on a longer time horizon there is technology itself. As the strategist T.X. Hammes points out, the convergence of cheap drones, cyber warfare, 3D printing and so on will encourage the diffusion of power among many states and nonstate actors, rather than the concentration of it into a few imperial-like hands.

[...]

After all, globalization and the communications revolution have reinforced, rather than negated, geopolitics. The world map is now smaller and more claustrophobic, so that territory is more ferociously contested, and every regional conflict interacts with every other as never before. A war in Syria is inextricable from a terrorist outrage in Europe, even as Russia’s intervention in Syria affects Europe’s and America’s policy toward Ukraine. This happens at a moment when, as I’ve said, multinational empires are gone, as are most totalitarian regimes in contrived states where official borders do not conform with ethnic and sectarian ones. The upshot is a maelstrom of national and subnational groups in violent competition. And so, geopolitics — the battle for space and power — now occurs within states as well as between them. Cultural and religious differences are particularly exacerbated: as group differences melt down in the crucible of globalization, they have to be reforged in a blunter and more ideological form. It isn’t the clash of civilizations so much as the clash of artificially reconstructed civilizations that is taking place. Witness the Islamic State, which does not represent Islam per se, but Islam combusting with the tyrannical conformity and mass hysteria of the Internet and social media. The postmodern reinvention of identities only hardens geopolitical divides.