The Curse of a New Building

Saturday, May 16th, 2009

Steve Blank (The Four Steps to the Epiphany) describes how his company suffered the Curse of a New Building:

The most obvious problem; the time we spent planning the building distracted the company from running the business. But there were three more insidious problems.
  1. While offices for everyone sound good on paper, moving everyone out of cubicles destroyed a culture of tight-knit interaction and communication. Individuals within departments were isolated, and the size and scale of the building isolated departments from each other.
  2. The new building telegraphed to our employees, “We’ve arrived. We’re no longer a small struggling startup. You can stop working like a startup and start working like a big company.” 
  3. We started to believe that the new building was a reflection of the company’s (and our own) success. We took our eye off the business. We thought that since we in such a fine building, we were geniuses, and the business would take care of itself.

While our competitors furiously worked on regaining market share, we were arguing about whether the carpets should be wool or nylon. The result was not pretty.

AmazonEncore

Saturday, May 16th, 2009

Amazon has just announced its new publishing program, AmazonEncore:

AmazonEncore is a new program whereby Amazon will use information such as customer reviews on Amazon.com to identify exceptional, overlooked books and authors with more potential than their sales may indicate. Amazon will then partner with the authors to re-introduce their books to readers through marketing support and distribution into multiple channels and formats, such as the Amazon.com Books Store, Amazon Kindle Store, Audible.com, and national and independent bookstores via third-party wholesalers.

Our premiere AmazonEncore title, Legacy, written by 14-year-old Cayla Kluver (now 16), had review titles such as “loved it, loved it,” “rich lyrical tapestry and story,” and “breath-taking in scope and execution!” In addition to raves from customers, Ms. Kluver has won several awards from literary groups. The new version of Legacy will be available in Fall 2009.

What Venture Capital Can Teach Corporate America

Tuesday, May 12th, 2009

Peter Rip of Crosslink Capital discusses what venture capital can teach corporate America:

  • Finance Growth With Equity, Not Debt
    In a study surveying 30 years, researchers found that companies started when credit was difficult to obtain had better odds of long-term survival than firms started under more liberal credit environments.
  • Owners Act Like Owners, Not Employees
    The spread between chief executive and rank-and-file salaries is usually a fraction of what it is in public companies. Senior executives have equity ownership, and it is their long-term compensation. Incentives between owners and managers are aligned because they are the same people.
  • Accountability Is Everything
    Unlike in public companies, boards of venture-backed companies have no reluctance to replace C.E.O.’s or key managers when things aren’t working. “Wait until next year, again” is not tolerated because the companies cannot afford it. Cash is king.
  • It’s About Capital Efficiency
    Our job is to allocate equity capital to the best and let go of the ones that are less efficient. Our job is to allocate equity capital to the best and let go of the ones that are less efficient.

The Future of Internet TV

Friday, May 8th, 2009

The future of Internet TV, Cringely says, is iTunes, not Hulu:

When you buy an episode on iTunes everyone in the production food chain makes a profit.

Hulu and its ilk are money-losing services that rely largely on concessions in various guild contracts that pretty much keep the writers and producers and actors from sharing in profits that aren’t there anyway, at least not yet.

How is this a threat to iTunes?

Fox owns a big chunk of Hulu, yet American Idol performances are exclusively available on iTunes, not Hulu. Why is that? Because American Idol performances on iTunes make a lot of money, that’s why. Adam Lambert downloads alone make more money every week — a lot more money — than do all the shows on Hulu put together.

So Apple is being criticized and seen as an Internet antique because it is making a profit? I don’t get it.

Call Me Steve

Thursday, May 7th, 2009

When Chinese-American Huan Hsu moved to Shanghai a year ago, he figured his name would finally seem normal:

No longer would it be the albatross of my childhood in Utah — making me stand out among the Johns, Steves, and Jordans. But when I introduced myself, I was met with blank stares, double takes, and requests for my English name. People — Chinese people — often wondered whether I were being patronizing, like the fabled Frenchman who icily responds in English to an earnest American’s attempts to get directions en français. My company almost didn’t process my paperwork because I left the box for “English name” blank. “You don’t have an English name?” the HR woman gasped. “You should really pick one.” She then waited for me to do just that, as if I could make such an important existential decision on the spot; I told her I’d get back to her. People — Chinese people — had trouble recalling my name. One guy at work, a Shanghai-born VP, called me “Steve” for almost three months. At my workplace, which is 90 percent mainland Chinese, just about everyone I interacted with had an English name, usually selected or received in school. The names ran the gamut, from the standard (Jackie, Ivy) to the unusual (Sniper, King Kong), but what really struck me was how commonly people used them when addressing one another, even when the rest of the conversation was in Chinese.

To sort out how English names became necessities in China, I recently spent an afternoon with Laurie Duthie, a UCLA doctoral candidate in anthropology who’s finishing up her dissertation in Shanghai. Duthie has studied Chinese white-collar workers since 1997 and traces the popularity of English names in China back to the influx of foreign investment following Deng Xiaoping’s market reforms. With foreign investment came foreigners, and many of Duthie’s research participants told her that they got tired of outsiders butchering their Chinese names, so they adopted English ones. “If Betty Brown’s your boss, or if your boss can’t say Du Xiao Hua, I’d want to change my name, too,” says Duthie.

Increasingly, these bosses are Chinese, yet the English names persist, in part because English tends to be the lingua franca for business technology, and even native Chinese often find it more efficient to type, write, or sign documents in English. Using English names also creates a more egalitarian atmosphere. Most forms of address in China reinforce pecking orders, such as “Third Uncle” and “Second Daughter” at home or “Old Wang” or “Little Hu” in the village square. Your given name — customarily said in full, surname first — is reserved for use by those with equal or higher social standing, and the default honorific for an elder or superior is “Teacher” — no surprise in a country that reveres education. But an English name, other than separating those with and without such names, frees users from these cultural hierarchies.

Given the nationalism I’ve witnessed in China, I was a bit surprised at how readily Chinese adopted Western names. (Even my Americanized parents were uncomfortable with the idea of me changing my name. They said I could do as I wished when I turned 18, though always in a tone that suggested such an unfilial act would cause them to die of disappointment.) But Duthie’s participants insisted that taking an English name isn’t kowtowing, nor is it simply utilitarian. Rather, it’s essential to being Chinese and achieving Chinese goals. Whereas in the past patriotism was expressed by self-sacrifice, it is now expressed through economic activity. So by working for, say, 3M, Chinese citizens are helping to build up China, and the English names they take on in the process are as patriotic as Cultural Revolution-era monikers like Ai Guo (Loves China) or Wei Dong (Mao’s Protector).

Taking English names also fits with various traditional Chinese naming practices. In the past, children were given “milk names” when they were born, and then public names once they started school. Professionals and scholars used pseudonyms, or hao, that signified membership in an educated class. Confucius, born Kong Qiu, sometimes wrote under his zi, or courtesy name, Zhongni. Even now, Chinese sometimes take new names to mark the start of a new job, entry to graduate school, or a marriage, as my coworkers Alpha and Beta did. They subsequently named their son Gamma. (For the record, Alpha is the male.)

As one of his Chinese friends said, “A name is just a dai hao.” Dai hao, or code name, can also refer to a stock’s ticker symbol.

(Hat tip to Chris.)

Designing for Free

Thursday, May 7th, 2009

I’m not surprised that a game publisher would try this; I am surprised that such a brazen tactic has worked:

In China, a new MMORPG with a very aggressive business model, entitled ZT Online, has gained significant popularity. With an ARPU of $40/quarter spread over one million paying users, the game has made its publisher, Giant Interactive, one of the most profitable online entertainment companies in China. Like many Asian games, ZT is free-to-play (F2P) and focuses primarily on player-vs-player gameplay. Not only can players steal from their defeated foes, but weaker characters can even be kidnapped and held for ransom, locking their owners out of the game.

Access to equipment in ZT is very limited. First of all, there are no loot drops from killing monsters or completing quests. Further, all items in the game are completely bound to the owner, so there is no way to trade for better weapons with other players. Instead, the primary way to gain equipment to empower one’s character is by paying real money directly to the publisher to open “treasure chests.” Essentially in-game slot machines, these chest have only a small chance of producing something useful, and finding the best equipment often requires opening thousands of chests. In fact, each day, the game confers a special bonus to the player who has opened the most chests, meaning the player who has spent the most real-world money to obtain better items.

This innovation came about in Asia for a reason:

ZT Online’s complete embrace, at every level of the game, of real-money transactions (RMT) may be appalling to some in the West, but the game is in many ways at the vanguard of a trend to develop games that take advantage of the players’ appetites for spending money to gain in-game advantages. Ironically, the F2P-with-RMT model traces its origins to the challenge of getting Asian gamers to buy boxed, retail games, most of whom preferred the free ride of easy and widespread piracy. In response, Korean companies like Nexon and NCsoft built server-based online games which could not be pirated and would require alternate business models.

Designing free-to-play game is more complicated than designing traditional games:

In a fixed-cost world, the designer can focus on just one thing: making the player’s experience as engaging and interesting and fun as possible.

For a F2P game, however, designers have to balance making free content fun enough to engage first-time players but not so much fun that they would not yearn for something more, something that could be turned into a transaction sometime in the future. Every design decision must be made with a mind towards how it affects the balance between free and paid content.

Thus, Soren Johnson points out, the true cost of piracy is that the line between game business and game design has become very blurry.

1,000 True Fans

Wednesday, May 6th, 2009

The long tail is famously good news for two classes of people, Kevin Kelly says — a few lucky aggregators, such as Amazon and Netflix, and 6 billion consumers — but it’s a mixed blessing for creators, who face massive competition.

Rather than aim for a blockbuster hit, an alternative strategy is to find 1,000 True Fans willing to spend $100 per year — buying anything and everything, the t-shirt, the mug, and the hat.

So far, it doesn’t look like too many creators are successfully following this strategy, but Arizona-based game developer Flashbang Studios is giving it a try:

For the last year, Arizona-based game developer Flashbang Studios has released a game every eight weeks free of charge to play online on its Web site Blurst. The games have often been bizarre and cartoonish. “Jetpack Brontosaurus” and “Off-Road Velociraptor Safari” play exactly as they sound while “Blush” allows players to control a jellyfish-like creature through a glowing undersea world. On Friday, the company release its newest game, “Paper Moon,” a monochromatic jaunt through a dreary landscape as players control the scenery to advance through the stages. “It’s based on a pop-up book and the song by Ella Fitzgerald,” says Steve Swink, Flashbang’s game designer.

Later this year, Blurst games will conduct an experiment. In addition to giving away its games for free, it’ll charge $20 for a six month subscription for additional features such as a downloadable version. Blurst will also be taking requests from fans to add features over time. Mr. Swink and his team calculated how many people they’d need to keep a staff of six and cover a $20,000 per month budget. They arrived at what they considered to be a reasonable goal: only 5,000 people every half-year.

Kindle versions represent 35 percent of sales

Wednesday, May 6th, 2009

While unveiling the new, larger Kindle DX, Jeff Bezos also revealed that sales of the Kindle versions of titles represent 35 percent of sales for those titles with a Kindle version.

Kindle DX

Wednesday, May 6th, 2009

Amazon’s new Kindle DX — with 9.7″ screen and 4GB of storage — has been announced. The price? $489 — vs. $359 for the 6″ Kindle 2.

Moderate-Speed Rail

Wednesday, May 6th, 2009

Train-enthusiast Robert Poole laments that any planned high-speed rail should be called moderate-speed rail:

Let’s begin by getting clear on what is meant by “high-speed rail.” In the United States, this term means anything in excess of 110 mph. The only U.S. train that goes (briefly) faster than that is Amtrak’s Acela service on the Northeast Corridor route; all other current Amtrak lines have a top speed of 79 mph. Nearly all of the 10 corridor proposals in contention for a piece of the federal $13 billion are planning upgrades of existing passenger service to get to 110 mph.

As unambitious as those projects may sound, they are more than capable of absorbing most or all of the $13 billion. These corridors serve a mix of freight and passenger trains, with the former tending to be very long and operating at speeds that seldom exceed 60 mph. To enable 110 mph passenger trains to operate on these tracks will require major upgrades to signaling systems and the addition of passing sidings. And if priority is given to an expanded number of passenger trains, that means the freight trains will spend even more time than they do now stopped on mile-long (or longer) sidings.

And that conflict between freight and passenger service is one of the little-noticed problems with what really should be called “moderate-speed rail.” You can optimize a rail network for freight or for passenger service, but not for both. The current US rail network is optimized for freight, and as a result, rail’s share of US freight ton-miles is about 40 percent. By contrast, Europe’s network is optimized for passenger trains, and as a result, rail’s share of freight ton-miles is only 10-15 percent. Wendell Cox has crunched the numbers and estimated that the carbon-intensity of goods movement is about 25 percent higher in Europe than in the USA.

True high-speed rail is very, very expensive — and not profitable:

True high-speed rail (HSR) is represented by the bullet trains in Japan, France, Spain, and Germany, with speeds of 150-200 mph. Those relatively few routes are built, out of necessity, on exclusive rights of way — with wider curves, shallower grades, and full grade separation. That makes their cost much higher than the moderate-speed rail featured in (most of) the Obama plan. A table in a recent Government Accountability Office report on the subject (GAO-09-317) shows the construction cost of recent overseas HSR lines, in 2008 dollars. Except for an outlier in Japan that cost $143 million/mile, they averaged $51 million per mile to construct (i.e., these figures do not include the vehicles). Thus, a 300-mile system would cost $15.3 billion.

Despite various claims to the contrary, the Government Accountability Office found: “In each of the countries we visited, the central government paid the up-front construction costs of their country’s high-speed rail lines, and did so with no expectation that its investment would be recouped through ticket revenues.”

Thus, claims about “profits” that appear in the media refer only to operating profits—and even those appear to occur on only some of these lines. In the U.K., for instance, The Economist reports that in 2007 the British government subsidized the operating costs of UK rail operators to the tune of $6.6 billion. The new HSR line that opened in Taiwan in 2007 lost $1.5 billion in its first year of operation. University of Paris transport economist Remy Prud’Homme estimates that overall, passenger rail service in the European Union 15 receive about $100 billion in subsidies each year.

Processing Power Isn’t the Binding Constraint

Monday, May 4th, 2009

We’re at an interesting point in the development of computer technology, Cringely notes, because processing power isn’t what binds enterprise or Internet applications today:

I/O and disk access do that. Servers have one or two gigabit Ethernet connections, each of which could be easily saturated by an old Pentium 4. It’s the pipe that limits us, not our ability to pump bits through that pipe. Thanks to the gamers, I suppose, and to a surreal and not particularly useful competition between Intel and AMD the main server CPUs are barely sweating even though they are running the core business logic of the application. It’s the database server with its disk drives that is working so hard, grabbing data to feed the web servers seemingly just in time. But don’t blame the hardware here or even the disk drives — blame the database.

We’re at the apex of SQL database development. It’s 1890 and we make the best darned database buggy whips on Earth.

There is a better way to handle large volumes of data and that better way has been established, not surprisingly, by Google with its BigTable semi-structured database that essentially caches the entire Internet. HBase from Hadoop is the Open Source version of BigTable and both are rapidly making old SQL databases like Oracle and DB2 obsolete for certain users.

Amazon.com runs on an Oracle database, but one that was extended and optimized at a cost of more than $150 million. Amazon probably represents the most that one can do with SQL in terms of scalability. Anything bigger requires a completely new approach like BigTable.

Or maybe it isn’t so new at all. I recall something very analogous to BigTable during the network operating system wars of the 1980s. Microsoft had a couple dozen OEMs working on network operating systems based on the hierarchical file system of DOS 2.0 (Paul Allen’s last technical contribution to Microsoft). While a hierarchical file system may have made some sense for a workstation it made little to no sense for a server accessed by dozens of workstations in the view of the programmers at Novell, where Netware was being born at the time. Those guys ignored the hierarchy and wrote the entire File Allocation Table for each drive to memory as a single flat file called an Indexed Turbo FAT. Where the DOS-based network operating systems had to search the disk for files, Netware had the entire index loaded in memory and instantly knew where the target data could be found. The system was easily 100 times as fast. BigTable takes this a step further, I suppose, by ignoring the distinction between index and data, dramatically expanding the memory footprint but, at the same time, completely eliminating a retrieval step.

An irony of BigTable and Indexed Turbo FATs is that both Google and Novell were pretty upfront about what they were doing and why, yet competitors have remained bound to lower performing technologies because, well just because.

Which brings us back once again to Oracle buying Sun, a deal that has continued to bug me because it didn’t make sense… UNTIL I thought about it in terms of the scalability of SQL architectures and market positioning.

Right now almost every web application has an Apache server fronting a database box running MySQL or its closed source equivalent like Oracle, DB2, or SQL Server. The data bottleneck in all those applications is the SQL box, which is generally doing a very simple job in a very complex manner that made total sense for minicomputers in 1975 but doesn’t make as much sense today. Five years from now the situation will be very different with HBase running everywhere, the dedicated SQL box eliminated completely, and the database shared across redundant web servers like a micro-Google.

Where does this leave Oracle?

It leaves Oracle bleeding its big stupid corporate customers for another decade but eventually losing both the bottom half of the market and the very top where applications scale to tens of thousands of servers.

Part of the distinction here is between running a mobile phone billing system in one case and Facebook in another. In the mobile phone example you’d better get all those minutes or money will be lost. But in the Facebook example reality is more approximate and if an update propagates slower than expected, well big deal, so you missed Little Johnny’s birthday pictures for an extra 20 seconds. There are even business software cases where this philosophy applies. Progressive Insurance, for example, is always ready to give you a comparison price quote for auto insurance not because they can generate that quote (and the price quotes of their major competitors) on the fly, but because THEY GENERATE A SPECULATIVE PRICE QUOTE FOR EVERY CAR IN AMERICA EVERY NIGHT. They don’t generate a quote when you call, they just access it because it is already done.

So Oracle keeps the mobile phone company as a customer but doesn’t keep Progressive in this example. And in the long run there’s enough data redundancy built into the loosey-goosey HBase model that it becomes just as reliable as the more rigorous SQL model that it is inexorably replacing. That’s when Oracle loses the mobile phone company, too.

Larry Ellison won’t like that.

So what’s to be done? Buy Sun. Get into the database appliance business. Start selling highly-tuned database appliances that achieve the simultaneous goals of vertical integration (making profit on the hardware as well as the software), obfuscation (keeping the customers out of the lower-level code by encasing it in an appliance), and increased overall performance (putting off the inevitable loss of market dominance for another three years through a hardware tour du force).

IBM, as the other big SQL company, doesn’t really share Oracle’s problem, because IBM makes money from the hardware already. If DB2 gives way to something like HBase, IBM will run HBase on its premium iron — a luxury Oracle can’t share without buying Sun.

As hardware gets cheaper we extend performance by distributing software across more and more machines. But that distribution in itself undermines the lucrative software licensing system. So we introduce a new level of abstraction — the database appliance. Prices will go up a little while performance will go up a lot. Customers will think they are getting more for their money and they will be. But the ultimate comparison that has been at least postponed is between paid and free, where free always wins in the end.

And THAT’s why Oracle NEEDS Sun — to extend its current run by another three years, buying Larry time to write an Act II for his company.

Wall Street Excess

Thursday, April 30th, 2009

Philipp Meyer was a Cornell English major and the son of two recovering hippies before he became a Wall Street trader and immersed himself in its sordid excesses:

I’d been working for the bank for about five weeks when I woke up on the balcony of a ski resort in the Swiss Alps. It was midnight and I was drunk. One of my fellow management trainees was urinating onto the skylight of the lobby below us; another was hurling wine glasses into the courtyard.

Behind us, someone had stolen the hotel’s shoe-polishing machine and carried it into the room; there were a line of drunken bankers waiting to use it. Half of them were dripping wet, having gone swimming in all their clothes and been too drunk to remember to take them off. It took several more weeks of this before the bank considered us properly trained.
[...]
I put on 45 pounds in my first year at the bank, and, as you might guess, it was not from eating McDonalds. Occasionally I ate stuff like sushi, but mostly it was steak. We went to the good places like Sparks, Peter Luger’s, and the Strip House. We tended to look down on chains like Morton’s and Ruth’s Chris-they were for car dealers or stock brokers, not traders. Regardless of where we ate, we ate in quantity. My standard strategy was to order half a dozen appetisers, plus a steak and lobster, plus a few desserts and much wine as I could drink, as long it was under a few hundred dollars a bottle. Followed by a digestif, typically a 30-year-old port. There’s not any way to justify this except to say I was trying to catch up to my colleagues. We would treat those restaurants like Roman vomitoriums. And it wasn’t the food so much as the wine. Being a junior employee, I couldn’t really order bottles that cost more than a few hundred dollars, but the senior guys could get nicer stuff – Opus One, Chateau Latour. As long as we were out with a client, the bank paid. I remember being stunned the first time I saw a dinner bill for ten grand. But that was just the beginning.

What it boiled down to was austerity for everyone else and rampant consumption for ourselves. I never saw anyone literally set fire to money, but I did drink most of a bottle of 1983 Margaux ($2,000).
[...]
One evening, a close friend from the bank, an art history major from Princeton, took a bunch of recruits out with me. I did my normal trick of ordering nearly everything on the menu. There were piles of raw fish, shrimp, paté, sauces that had taken hours to prepare. It was far more food than anyone could eat and I could see some of the recruits were a little stunned at the quantities of uneaten shrimp and oysters being shovelled into the bin. I ate a big steak, put down a few bottles of red wine at $400-a-bottle and we hopped into a minibus we’d chartered for the night (gauche, but we couldn’t find a large enough limo). We stopped somewhere and bought a mixed case of Veuve Clicquot and Moet. Try the difference between these two, I demanded, but by then the recruits were all so drunk they barely touched it. I could tell they were getting a little scared. This stuff is bottom of the line, I told them. You ought to try the vintages. I downed at least two of the bottles in rapid succession. Some of the recruits would not look at me. They did not want to be there anymore. We stopped at a bar. I realised I was going to be sick, made sure my colleague had things under control, caught a cab, and promptly began vomiting out the window. Because of the quantity of wine and red meat I’d consumed, it looked like I was spitting up blood. The cab driver pulled over, certain I was about to die in his backseat. A finely dressed couple opened the door and I clambered out and vomited on their shoes. I don’t remember how I got home. The next morning I discovered a dozen cigars stuffed in my pockets, probably from the restaurant. I told my colleagues what had happened, looking for some moral bearing, secretly hoping to be chastised, but they all thought I was a hero. The vomiting on strangers was their favourite part. My boss, for fun, would sometimes throw cocktail olives, sushi, things of that nature, across the room in restaurants, always at people we didn’t know.

Markets are driven by a very small number of very large investors, he notes, and those people may not be bad people, but they won’t question their million-dollar paychecks.

Confessions of an Entrepreneur’s Wife

Monday, April 27th, 2009

Business writer Phaedra Wise wrote her Confessions of an Entrepreneur's Wife after her husband spent years trying to get his carbonated juice drink off the ground:

The truth was he had little time for analysis. As the head of sales and marketing, CEO, president, and chairman of the board, as well as the person charged with finding capital, he had a staggering workload. Like a shark, he needed to push relentlessly forward to survive.

Bill’s travel schedule was unpredictable. He bounced from fundraising pitches to sales calls all over North America. When he was home (a few days every other week) he was exhausted and burned out. He had no desire to socialize. I packed away the party dresses and started turning down invitations.

I quit asking him how things were going at work because his answers always focused on problems. He was the No. 1 problem-solving guy, and when you’re a hammer, everything around you looks like a nail. It scared me that from Bill’s perspective the whole thing was so often about to collapse.

He was also beginning to question whether it was even worth it. With each new round of financing he had diluted his shares. He and Wayne held shares jointly in an S corporation. (They shared a single vote to control their combined shares, which meant the tension between them never diminished.) In the first round they kept 60 percent, but by 2004 they were down to less than 30 percent. I reminded Bill of a conversation I once had with a CEO I was interviewing. “How could you give up so much equity?” I asked. “Well,” the CEO said, “it’s better to have 1 percent of 10 million than 100 percent of nothing.” I could see that Bill’s hard work was paying off. I didn’t want him to give up yet.

When the company received a local business award, I was thrilled. I thought it would be a chance for Bill to slow down and realize that he had created a big success. For one night he–we–could revel in his accomplishments and accept a few accolades. I got a sitter and picked out my dress, but the day before the party Bill canceled. He had to be in Chicago to meet with a potential investor. I was disappointed, but by now I was used to it.

Oracle’s surprising takeover of Sun

Friday, April 24th, 2009

Oracle's surprising takeover of Sun isn’t so surprising when you realize what Oracle will be able to offer:

Mr Ellison is keen on two bits of Sun’s software portfolio in particular. One is Java, a programming language that is the underlying technology both for many business applications and for software that runs on mobile phones. Sun never managed to make much money from it, in part because it wanted Java to be an open standard. But Mr Ellison may have different ideas. To him, it is “the single most important software asset we have ever acquired.” Sun’s other crown jewel is Solaris, its highly reliable operating system, which is often used as the platform for Oracle’s databases. More Oracle databases run on Solaris than on any other operating system, Mr Ellison notes. With control over both pieces of software, Oracle will be able to make them work together better.

This ability to integrate hitherto disparate pieces of technology, and thus make life easier for companies, provides further justification for the merger. For some time, Mr Ellison’s vision for Oracle has been to become the Apple of the enterprise, hiding complexity from customers, just as Apple does with its powerful but easy-to-use consumer products. Taking over Sun, he said this week, provides Oracle with all the pieces to put together systems that reach from “application to disk”. Oracle’s engineers are already brainstorming about how to build “industries in a box”—complete computer systems that come fine-tuned for, say, banking or retailing.

Oh, and there’s one more thing — which Ellison prefers not to mention:

By buying Sun, Oracle becomes the world’s largest open-source company, prompting much debate among developers and users. There is particular concern about the fate of MySQL, a firm Sun bought for $1 billion in January 2008. It sells database software which is also available in a free, widely used, open-source version.

The revolution that wasn’t

Friday, April 24th, 2009

The Economist calls the DVR revolution the revolution that wasn’t, because advertising-supported television hasn’t suffered as predicted:

On one point the Cassandras were correct. As prices fell and cable and satellite firms began to bundle DVRs with other services, their popularity soared. According to Nielsen, a media-research outfit, 29% of American homes now have one. The boxes are in a higher proportion of the households advertisers most care about. Jack Wakshlag of Turner Broadcasting, a cable company, calculates that DVR-owning households earn about $20,000 more than average. Yet those households do not use them nearly as much as one might expect. Families with DVRs seem to spend 15-20% of their viewing time watching pre-recorded shows, and skip only about half of all advertisements. This means only about 5% of television is time-shifted and less than 3% of all advertisements are skipped. Mitigating that loss, people with DVRs watch more television.

Once again I’m reminded what an outlier I am, as I must spend 99 percent of my viewing time watching pre-recorded shows, and I skip perhaps 90 percent of the ads. I even skip large portions of the program sometimes. (A two-hour MMA program might have a half-hour of fighting.)

I do watch much more TV now that I have a DVR though. I went from close to zero — I watched DVDs then — to, well, far from zero.

Far from being revolutionary, in some ways DVR has made television more stable. With the exception of live events it is broadly true that the most popular programmes are recorded the most. Mr Wakshlag describes it as “a hit-saving machine”. Broadcast television receives a bigger boost from DVR playback than cable television. The device has made it harder to introduce a new television programme, particularly at 10pm when people are likely to be playing back shows they recorded at 8pm or 9pm.

Again, I’m an outlier. I’ve found the DVR remarkably useful for taking in the “long tail” of programming from obscure channels at inconvenient times.