The Mamdani Moment, Peter Turchin argues, perfectly illustrates the “credentialed precariat”:
Ten years ago the political landscape in the US was dominated by two parties: one of the “1 percent” (wealth holders) and one of the “10 percent” (credential-holders). Both parties focused on advancing the interests of the ruling class, while ignoring those of the 90 percent. I am, of course, simplifying a lot here; for a more detailed and nuanced explanation see End Times.
In 2016 Donald Trump channeled growing popular immiseration to begin reformatting the Republicans into a right-wing populist — “MAGA” — party. This process is quite incomplete.
Meanwhile, the Democrats had effectively controlled the left-wing populists in their party, by a combination of suppression (think Bernie Sanders) and cooptation (think AOC). As a result, by 2024 the Democratic Party evolved into the sole party of the ruling elites.
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Many pundits commented on the observation that Mamdani enjoyed support among younger voters. Indeed, 78% of the youngest cohort (18-29 years old) voted for him and only 18 for Cuomo, for the Mamdani advantage of 60 points.
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Let’s first look at credential-holders. Astonishingly, the proportion of people, voting in this election, who had at least “some college” experience is 80%. 31% have earned a Bachelor’s and fully 27% hold an advanced degree, with both groups giving Mamdani an advantage of 19 points (57% for Mamdani, 38% for Cuomo).
To tell the truth, I first didn’t believe these numbers. Such concentration of credentialed individuals is amazing. But according to the NYC government survey in 2023, two years ago the proportion of New Yorkers with a bachelor’s degree or higher was 43%, increasing from 33% in 2010. Of the White adults (25 or older) two-thirds completed college. Talk about degree overproduction…
Next, income. Here the relationship is nonlinear. The poorest (earning less than $30,000 per year) and the richest ($300,000 or more) gave more votes to Cuomo, while those in between preferred Mamdani. Thus, the richest 8%, earning $300k or more, preferred Cuomo by 29 points. The problem for Cuomo was that those in the middle category comprised 77% of voters. The biggest degree of preference for Mamdani compared to Cuomo — 20 points — was among those earning $50-99k. This was also the largest group (27% of voters). The next group, $100-199k, were close behind: 18 points for Mamdani.
It may seem strange to call those earning 50-100k “precariat,” but one must take into account that NYC is a very expensive city. The median rent for two-bedroom apartments in New York City increased 15.8% over the past year and is now $5,500 per month (see Zohran’s Park Slope Populists by John Carney), or $66,000 per year. In other words, you will spend two-thirds of your $100,000 income just to keep a roof over your head.
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Still, these numbers provide strong support for the idea that Mamdani’s win was largely propelled by the young credentialed precariat: the youth with college degree, or higher, earning just enough to live on the edge.
The median US family income in 2024 was $83,730.
Most well-off middle-class people in 2025 are D patronage hires. They vote for the D candidate who offers the biggest patronage expansion.
If the new Arab ruler of the disputed territory formerly known as New-York is unable to reassign titles of real property or pass window guidance, he cannot suppress his subjects’ costs of living.