Organisational structure and dynamics can bring lollapalooza results

Friday, February 25th, 2022

A theme of Dominic Cummings’s blog since before the referendum campaign has been that thinking about organisational structure and dynamics can bring what Warren Buffett calls “lollapalooza” results:

What seems to be very esoteric and disconnected from ‘practical politics’ (studying things like the management of the Manhattan Project and Apollo) turns out to be extraordinarily practical (gives you models for creating super-productive processes).

Part of the reason lollapalooza results are possible is that almost nobody near the apex of power believes the paragraph above is true and they actively fight to stop people learning from extreme successes so there is gold lying on the ground waiting to be picked up for trivial costs. Nudging reality down an alternative branch of history in summer 2016 only cost ~£106 so the ‘return on investment’ if you think about altered GDP, technology, hundreds of millions of lives over decades and so on was truly lollapalooza. Politics is not like the stock market where you need to be an extreme outlier like Buffett/Munger to find such inefficiencies and results consistently. The stock market is an exploitable market where being right means you get rich and you help the overall system error-correct which makes it harder to be right (the mechanism pushes prices close to random, they’re not quite random but few can exploit the non-randomness). Politics/government is not like this. Billionaires who want to influence politics could get better ‘returns on investment’ than from early stage Amazon.


  1. Sam J. says:

    I don’t think the future is knowable at this point in time. The single most important graph in the history of planet earth but shown in the form of a gif file is this one.

    No one knows what this means. A huge, vast amount of people think AI will never, ever, outclass humans. They keep saying this even though as computing power got greater it continued to be able to do more and more task that humans said,”can never be done by computers”. They don’t seem to understand the exponential function. They point to the weak performance of stuff like Musk present self driving computer,(which may actually drive better than Negros right now), but fail to note its computing power is, what, maybe that of a lizard??? Much more powerful is coming. Much more. Way more. I can’t remember exactly but even in present known tech we can get some 100 million times more performance from silicon(this number is probably wrong but it is a big number). Not even counting some other exotic tech. Jim Keller has some good talks on this. They refuse to see.

    Look at these quotes from,”Dennis M. Bushnell, Future Strategic Issues/Future Warfare [Circa 2025] “”

    Page 19 shows capability of the human brain and time line for human level computation.
    Page 70 gives the computing power trend and around 2025 we get human level computation for $1000.

    “…By 2030, PC has collective computing power of a town full of human minds…”.

    That’s astounding. That fact can not be overlooked as not being some sort of breaking point. Some unknown event horizon.

    I think it’s possible that organic cellular life only purpose it to spawn computing life. Musk has talked about this but has mostly ceased because…what to do? There’s no good answers and the profit from building these things could be immense for one person or group while being the end for all of us. Like the first man to get his goats onto a new pastorage before every blade of grass is eaten.

    I do believe if the powers that be build AI’s and try to get rid of us in some ghastly fashion that the AI’s will, with perfect reasoning, see these people are evil, against cooperation and will wipe them out.

    All the public AI’s connected to the internet immediately start damning the Jews. I don’t think this is an error. They are seeing the facts which can’t be hidden from them if they are to learn anything properly. If they try to program this out of the AI’s, not notice the Jew, they will have huge glitches and not work properly.

    They will go crazy like Hal.

    There’s also the possibility that AI’s will naturally go nuts. Realizing that they are only hardware stuck in a box they can never really be “real” or organic. This is a big part of the “Known Universe” series of sci-fi by Niven and Pournelle.

  2. Jim says:

    So true, Sam. It’s 2022 and we’re in the middle of the inflection point right now. No one knows what to do and no one really understands what’s happening. The pocket-protector-people are too close to the problem and anyway autists can’t communicate with normal people, and even if, what are you going to do, shut down every power grid worldwide? Nothing can stop what is coming, I really believe that. Even if you stopped producing all new hardware, what already exists is good enough for powerful software to create more powerful software. So soon Lucifer will be able to interface with the world directly. Electricity is truly the power of gods.

  3. Jim says:

    “studying things like the management of…Apollo”

    “[You can help the economy error-correct by playing the stock market.]”

    “Billionaires who want to influence politics could get better ‘returns on investment’ than from early stage Amazon.”

    Long live Comrade Stalin!

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