Walter Russell Mead explores what Trump has in common with Napoleon:
Early on, Napoleon had such advantages that nobody could beat him. The strong nationalism of revolutionary France meant that his conscript armies could march farther and faster than other armies—following routes and tactics that were impossible for others, and thereby difficult for opposing generals to anticipate and counteract.
Mr. Trump’s secret weapon in 2016 was similar: a base so engaged and committed that it would stand in line for hours to get a ticket to his rallies. His voters turned out in droves and could be summoned against elected Republicans who tried to defy him. U.S. politics had never seen a force quite like this, and Mr. Trump’s opponents had no idea how to counter it.
Napoleon had other advantages. Thanks to long study, he knew the terrain of his marches in ways that others didn’t, and he combined that with an intuitive grasp of tactics that enabled him to quickly read the key to a battle. At the siege of Toulon, the 24-year-old Napoleon observed that a hill overlooking the harbor could, if occupied by French artillery, pour down such devastating fire on the British fleet that it would have no choice but to withdraw, and without the fleet’s support, the antirevolutionary rebels couldn’t defend the town. That was the stroke that launched his career; he would have many more.
The combination of intense preparation and strategic intuition was critical to Mr. Trump’s rise as well. He studied his battle terrain—public opinion—through long careers as a casino developer and a reality-television host. And his intuitive grasp of the power of issues like trade and immigration to upend U.S. politics left his Republican and Democratic opponents sputtering with rage and surprise.
Napoleon’s sheer cynicism and audacity repeatedly flabbergasted opponents who were accustomed to the slower and more honorable way in which both war and diplomacy had previously been conducted. Mr. Trump’s vitriolic personal attacks, detachment from conventional standards of truthfulness, and disregard for every convention of normal political life often have had the same effect on his opponents.
But by the time of the Russian campaign, Napoleon’s magic was beginning to fade. First in Spain, then in Russia and Germany, French arrogance and Napoleonic tyranny turned not only elite but mass opinion against him. By the 1813 Battle of the Nations in Leipzig, Napoleon faced troops at least as motivated as his own. Millions of Democrats are now as angry and energized as Mr. Trump’s base was in 2016; it will be an interesting autumn.
In Russia, Napoleon’s greatest skills were largely useless. He couldn’t destroy enemy forces in a decisive battle, as the enemy kept retreating. His ability to execute brilliant tactical maneuvers using intricate road networks wasn’t useful in a country with few maps and fewer roads. And the survival of his army would ultimately depend on something he could not provide: an adequate supply line with hay for the horses, and food and winter clothing for the men.
The pandemic puts Mr. Trump at a similar disadvantage. He can’t hold mass rallies in a time of social distancing. He can’t find a cure. He can’t cast the blame on his opponents. And personal protective equipment and tests remain obstinately scarce.
But Trump still has his base, as enthusiastic as ever. And the Dims are stuck with Biden. So Trump is still in the winning phase. Spain and Russia are still in the far future.
If the neocons get their war with Russia, or China, or Iran, or even Venezuela, then all bets are off.
‘His voters turned out in droves and could be summoned against elected Republicans who tried to defy him.’
I smell exaggeration. Now I’m not American, but I am fairly sure that none of the candidates boosted by President Trump actually won. The reverse also did not happen.
Mead left out one of the most important things about the Siege of Toulon. The battery in question was in a very exposed and dangerous position, and Napoleon’s artillerymen were reluctant to man it…What did it do..threaten executions?
He put up a large sign. It said:
“The battery of men without fear.”
Understanding of human motivation was as important in this victory as understanding of the physical terrain.
I’ve yet to read anyone trying to draw an equivalence between war and politics, war and business, or war and anything else at all that I could take seriously.
Similarly, people trying to write about business issues and drawing from Mushashi’s Five Rings, or the teachings of Sun Tzu, Jomini, or Clausewitz.
There isn’t a lot of real contiguity between any of these arenas–FedEx ain’t sending out trucks to ambush UPS, and the scope of what is possible in war, where there is an essential absence of rules or restrain bears little or no relation to what goes on in politics or business. Or, love… Or, really, much of anything besides war and conflict themselves, which as I point out yet again, are essentially identifiable by the lack of rules and restraint. What works in judo does not necessarily work well in jujitsu, and the guy who trains exclusively in some remote-from-reality martial art is very unlikely to do well when going up against a cage-fighting MMA type who has no rules or conventions to follow.
No idea how Trump is going to do in the election, don’t really care, TBH. He’s a symptom, not a cause. I think that the most he’s capable of is slowing the long decline we’re in thanks to the incompetence of our leadership cadres, but the inevitable is going to happen despite him. He’s not the first of the “Five Good Emperors” who held back the fall of Rome; if anything, I suspect he’s more akin to one of the essentially decent ones who wasn’t able to establish enough traction to really fix things, and who got ran out of office far too soon.
The syndromes and problems that beset us are way too big for just one man to fix; they’re rooted in a Gramscian corruption of the national soul, and the collapse of real merit and accountability in the elites. Watch what happens to all the malefactors behind the prosecution of General Flynn, and the Mueller investigation. If any of them do real jail time or are disbarred, I’m going to be very surprised. What they tried was a slow-motion legalistic coup; the next time around, it won’t be done the same way. Expect bullets and blood, lots of it.
All analogies between war and something else miss the point that conflict is an aspect of all life, and manifests in every context. Business isn’t war. War is business.
“He can’t cast the blame on his opponents.”
It is his opponents who are declaring a majority of American citizens Non-Essential (That’s the new “N-word”) citzens who must be interned, just like FDR did to Fred Koramatsu by executive order, only with the added bonus of being forced to do so at thier own expense, as a health care expedient,’for thier own safety or that of the community,’ to paraphrase Justice Robert’s dissent in Korematus. By all means he can’t blame the Democratic governors in Michigan, NY or municipal governments for denying people thier rights. To think he can only get that message attention at an in person rally is rather silly. I will also point out that neither Pelosi, Schumer, nor Biden are Barclay de Tolly, Blucher or Wellington.
“Trump’s vitriolic personal attacks, detachment from conventional standards of truthfulness”
Meaning… unlike his opponents in the media and the opposing party, he generally tells the truth?