What is really going on in the Arab Spring? Martin van Creveld answers:
The situation seems to vary from one country to another. In Tunisia, the so-called Yasmin revolution has led to the installation of a relatively moderate Islamic government. Whether or not that means democracy, will, however, only be put to the test if and when the time comes for another election which the opposition may win. In Libya, the outcome has been virtual disintegration of the central state which is unable to cope with the various regional militias. Yemen following the revolution has become even more anarchic and more of a stamping ground. In Egypt, the most important effect of the revolution so far has been the loss of control over the Sinai, which likewise is becoming, [or] has already become, a haven for terrorists and criminals. As I said earlier, the fate of Syria hangs in the balance.
It would seem that, in each country, four outcomes are possible. They are, first, the substitution of one military dictator for another; second, the rise of an Islamic dictatorship; third, anarchy; and fourth, democracy. Generally speaking, the last possibility is the least likely one. The reason for this is the persistence of tribalism, which makes democracy very difficult to achieve.
To use a historical analogy, ere Cleisthenes was able to establish the world’s first true democracy in ancient Athens he had to demolish the tribes into which the population was divided. In Rome, by contrast, the survival of the tribes led to the creation of an aristocratic republic. Only late in the second century B.C. did attempts at greater democratization get under way: the outcome, as we know, was military dictatorship.
Bad article. It is not tribalism that makes democracy difficult. It is the whole culture.
Tribalism also makes very difficult to achieve an Islamic theocratic state, unless one tribe can rule everything. So one of the forces that saves those states from becoming full-bore Islamist is precisely the tribes.
Even a tribe can be a dam to theocratic government. For example what makes Jordan not go Islamist? Hachemite Tribe.
I suppose tribes resist any national government, but resisting a democracy results in something we don’t call democracy, while resisting a dictatorship doesn’t render it any less of a dictatorship.
“…The reason for this is the persistence of tribalism, which makes democracy very difficult to achieve…”
This is the desired result of those that orchestrate these “movements”. With no strong central power they will lose the ability to protect the State. Masses of squabbling tribes at each others throats. Then they will be destroyed.