Costly placebos works better than cheap ones

Saturday, March 15th, 2008

Costly placebos works better than cheap ones:

Ariely and a team of collaborators at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology used a standard protocol for administering light electric shock to participants’ wrists to measure their subjective rating of pain. The 82 study subjects were tested before getting the placebo and after. Half the participants were given a brochure describing the pill as a newly-approved pain-killer which cost $2.50 per dose and half were given a brochure describing it as marked down to 10 cents, without saying why.

In the full-price group, 85 percent of subjects experienced a reduction in pain after taking the placebo. In the low-price group, 61 percent said the pain was less.

(Hat tip to FuturePundit.)

Scientists find ‘master’ breast cancer gene

Friday, March 14th, 2008

Scientists find 'master' breast cancer gene, which causes the cancer to metastasize:

Described by the US researchers as a “master regulator,” the SATB1 gene alters the behavior of at least 1,000 other genes within tumor cells, said the study, published in the British journal Nature.

When over-activated it makes cancer cells proliferate, and when neutralised the gene stops the cells from dividing and migrating, the study reported.
[...]
Between 125 and 160 metastatic nodules formed in each lung of all the control mice. But in the rodents in which SATB1 was suppressed, the number was between zero and five.

Deliberately over-expressing the gene had the opposite effect, causing the cancer cells to rapidly reproduce and run amok.

Translating the study’s findings into an effective treatment for cancer would require targeting only the tumours in which the SATB1 gene has become overly active.

A drug that blocked the gene throughout the body would compromise its critical — and normal — role in activating the immune system.

Kohwi-Shigematsu is working on a means for delivering an inhibitor via microscopic nanocapsules, and said trials on humans could start within a couple of years. Prognostic tools could be available within a year.

Vitamin D supplements cut risk of Type 1 diabetes

Friday, March 14th, 2008

Vitamin D supplements cut risk of Type 1 diabetes:

The risk of developing the disease was reduced 29 percent in children who took extra vitamin D as compared to those who had not.

No pain as Japan develops nasal spray bird flu vaccine

Friday, March 14th, 2008

Japanese scientists have developed a nasal spray bird flu vaccine — and this is the trumpeted benefit:

The nasal spray could make it easier to vaccinate people in developing countries with limited medical resources, which have borne the brunt of avian influenza since an outbreak in 2003.

Here’s the “minor” side-benefit:

Unlike current vaccines, the nasal spray is also seen as effective in mutations of the H5N1 virus — meaning it could protect against a potential global pandemic.

The spray counters potential mutations because its antibodies work differently.

The new method “stimulates mucous membranes instead of stimulating cells of the immune system, triggering secreting antibodies on the surface of the mucous membranes,” Hasegawa said.

At any rate, it’s odd that we produce so few nasal-spray vaccines. When I read Ken Alibek’s Biohazard a few years ago — billed as “The Chilling True Story of the Largest Covert Biological Weapons Program in the World, Told from Inside by the Man Who Ran It” — I was surprised to learn that the Soviet researchers walked through an aerosol spray of vaccine on the way into work every day.

Why are we poking millions of children with millions of needles again?

David Mamet: Why I Am No Longer a ‘Brain-Dead Liberal’

Thursday, March 13th, 2008

David Mamet explains why he is no longer a “brain-dead liberal”:

I wrote a play about politics (November, Barrymore Theater, Broadway, some seats still available). And as part of the “writing process,” as I believe it’s called, I started thinking about politics. This comment is not actually as jejune as it might seem. Porgy and Bess is a buncha good songs but has nothing to do with race relations, which is the flag of convenience under which it sailed.

But my play, it turned out, was actually about politics, which is to say, about the polemic between persons of two opposing views. The argument in my play is between a president who is self-interested, corrupt, suborned, and realistic, and his leftish, lesbian, utopian-socialist speechwriter.

The play, while being a laugh a minute, is, when it’s at home, a disputation between reason and faith, or perhaps between the conservative (or tragic) view and the liberal (or perfectionist) view. The conservative president in the piece holds that people are each out to make a living, and the best way for government to facilitate that is to stay out of the way, as the inevitable abuses and failures of this system (free-market economics) are less than those of government intervention.

I took the liberal view for many decades, but I believe I have changed my mind.

As a child of the ’60s, I accepted as an article of faith that government is corrupt, that business is exploitative, and that people are generally good at heart.

These cherished precepts had, over the years, become ingrained as increasingly impracticable prejudices. Why do I say impracticable? Because although I still held these beliefs, I no longer applied them in my life. [...] I found I had been — rather charmingly, I thought — referring to myself for years as “a brain-dead liberal,” and to NPR as “National Palestinian Radio.”

This is, to me, the synthesis of this worldview with which I now found myself disenchanted: that everything is always wrong.

And, I wondered, how could I have spent decades thinking that I thought everything was always wrong at the same time that I thought I thought that people were basically good at heart? Which was it? I began to question what I actually thought and found that I do not think that people are basically good at heart; indeed, that view of human nature has both prompted and informed my writing for the last 40 years. I think that people, in circumstances of stress, can behave like swine, and that this, indeed, is not only a fit subject, but the only subject, of drama.

I’d observed that lust, greed, envy, sloth, and their pals are giving the world a good run for its money, but that nonetheless, people in general seem to get from day to day; and that we in the United States get from day to day under rather wonderful and privileged circumstances—that we are not and never have been the villains that some of the world and some of our citizens make us out to be, but that we are a confection of normal (greedy, lustful, duplicitous, corrupt, inspired—in short, human) individuals living under a spectacularly effective compact called the Constitution, and lucky to get it.

For the Constitution, rather than suggesting that all behave in a godlike manner, recognizes that, to the contrary, people are swine and will take any opportunity to subvert any agreement in order to pursue what they consider to be their proper interests.

To that end, the Constitution separates the power of the state into those three branches which are for most of us (I include myself) the only thing we remember from 12 years of schooling.

The Constitution, written by men with some experience of actual government, assumes that the chief executive will work to be king, the Parliament will scheme to sell off the silverware, and the judiciary will consider itself Olympian and do everything it can to much improve (destroy) the work of the other two branches. So the Constitution pits them against each other, in the attempt not to achieve stasis, but rather to allow for the constant corrections necessary to prevent one branch from getting too much power for too long.

Rather brilliant. For, in the abstract, we may envision an Olympian perfection of perfect beings in Washington doing the business of their employers, the people, but any of us who has ever been at a zoning meeting with our property at stake is aware of the urge to cut through all the pernicious bullshit and go straight to firearms.

I found not only that I didn’t trust the current government (that, to me, was no surprise), but that an impartial review revealed that the faults of this president—whom I, a good liberal, considered a monster—were little different from those of a president whom I revered.

Bush got us into Iraq, JFK into Vietnam. Bush stole the election in Florida; Kennedy stole his in Chicago. Bush outed a CIA agent; Kennedy left hundreds of them to die in the surf at the Bay of Pigs. Bush lied about his military service; Kennedy accepted a Pulitzer Prize for a book written by Ted Sorenson. Bush was in bed with the Saudis, Kennedy with the Mafia. Oh.

And I began to question my hatred for “the Corporations” — the hatred of which, I found, was but the flip side of my hunger for those goods and services they provide and without which we could not live.

And I began to question my distrust of the “Bad, Bad Military” of my youth, which, I saw, was then and is now made up of those men and women who actually risk their lives to protect the rest of us from a very hostile world. Is the military always right? No. Neither is government, nor are the corporations — they are just different signposts for the particular amalgamation of our country into separate working groups, if you will. Are these groups infallible, free from the possibility of mismanagement, corruption, or crime? No, and neither are you or I. So, taking the tragic view, the question was not “Is everything perfect?” but “How could it be better, at what cost, and according to whose definition?” Put into which form, things appeared to me to be unfolding pretty well.

Read the whole thing. Then read Masks in a Pageant by William Allen White. I haven’t read it, but Mamet recommends it highly. I suppose you might consider reading some Mamet too.

An Instinctive Regulator

Thursday, March 13th, 2008

Virginia Postrel notes that McCain is An Instinctive Regulator:

McCain is an instinctive regulator who considers business a base pursuit. It doesn’t help that the senator’s personal connections with commerce are largely limited to a highly protected local industry (distributing beer) and outright corruption (the Charles Keating scandal). And he’s every bit as moralistic as Hillary Clinton, our would-be national nanny. His first response to something he doesn’t like — particularly something commercial he doesn’t like — is to ban it. The most extreme, and effective, case of this instinct was his holy war against ultimate fighting, a peculiar cause for a boxing fan and one McCain took up when he was still in his “conservative” stage.

Back in 1998, Slate‘s David Plotz, recounted his run-in with the senator:

When I tell people I’m an ultimate fighting fan, they invariably respond: “Don’t people get killed all the time doing that?” But no one has ever been killed at the UFC — though boxers are killed every year. No one has even been seriously injured at the UFC. On the rare occasions when a bout has ended with a bloody knockout, the loser has always walked out of the ring.

But this does not impress boxing fans, who are the most vigorous opponents of extreme fighting. McCain sat ringside at a boxing match where a fighter was killed. When I asked him to explain the moral distinction between boxing and ultimate fighting, he exploded at me, “If you can’t see the moral distinction, then we have nothing to talk about!” Then he cut our interview short and stormed out of his office.

Cooked Books

Thursday, March 13th, 2008

In Cooked Books, Tyler Cowen explains that the sad truth is that “non-fiction” has been unreliable from the beginning:

The sad truth is that “non-fiction” has been unreliable from the beginning, no matter how finely grained a section of human knowledge we wish to consider. For instance, in my own field, critics have tried to replicate the findings in academic journal articles by economists using the initial data sets. Usually, it is impossible to replicate the results of the article even half of the time. Note that the journals publishing these articles often use two or three referees — experts in the area — and typically they might accept only 10 percent of submitted papers. By the way, economics is often considered the most rigorous and the most demanding of the social sciences.

You can knock down the reliability of published research another notch by considering “publication bias.” Publication bias refers to how the editorial process favors novel and striking results. Sometimes novel results will appear to be true through luck alone, just because the numbers line up the right way, even though the observed relationship would not hold up more generally. Articles with striking findings are more likely to be published and later publicized, whereas it is very difficult to publish a piece which says: “I studied two variables and found they were not much correlated at all.” If you adjust for this bias in the publication process, it turns out you should hardly believe any of what you read. Claims of significance are put forward at a disproportionately and misleadingly higher rate than claims of non-significance. Brad DeLong and Kevin Lang once co-authored a piece on this bias which they entitled appropriately: “Are All Economic Hypotheses False?”

The problems are compounded when we turn to non-fiction books. The refereeing is much looser and more impressionistic, even at an academic press. Who has time to verify each specific claim in a 400-page manuscript? The reader is lucky if half of those pages passed a “sniff test” from one or two qualified readers; usually the rest is taken on faith in the author’s more general academic reputation. If the book was put out by a trade publisher, most likely no refereeing was done at all. “I don’t think there is any way you can fact-check every single book. It would be very insulting and divisive in the author-editor relationship,” Nan Talese, the editor of James Frey’s A Million Little Pieces, told The New York Times.

Push the question one step further: What does journalistic fact-checking consist of in the first place? Sometimes the fact-checker calls up an interview source and asks him or her direct questions. Otherwise the fact-checker sees if the stated claim can be found in some published book, magazine, or perhaps in a refereed academic journal. Fact-checking can’t be any more reliable than these underlying sources.

Aspirin use may prevent asthma

Thursday, March 13th, 2008

Aspirin use may prevent asthma:

They found women who took a small dose of aspirin — 100 mg every other day — were 10 percent less likely to develop asthma over 10 years than women given placebos.

Seed capitalism

Wednesday, March 12th, 2008

You might call Michael Bissonette’s new company, AeroGrow, an example of seed capitalism:

Originally developed by NASA, aeroponics accelerates the speed at which plants grow by drizzling nutrients onto their roots, which dangle in the air instead of being planted in soil.

Commercial aeroponics systems have long been available, but they were big, clunky and expensive (at around $900 each)—not consumer friendly. That was because they were bought mostly by the geeky criminals of the crop-production world: people who grow marijuana at home.

They cared neither about the look of the product nor about its effectiveness at growing anything other than cannabis. But with the demand for fresh, organic produce booming, Mr Bissonette saw a potentially huge market for an aeroponics system that looked good, was easy to use, and worked with the kind of crops (tomatoes, strawberries, legal herbs) that home kitchens need.

Lessons Learned at 37 Signals

Tuesday, March 11th, 2008

Sean Ammirati shares some Lessons Learned at 37 Signals from Jason Fried’s SXSW presentation:

  1. Ignore The Great Unknown
    Optimize for today.
  2. Watch Out for Red Flags
    Be careful with the words need, can’t, easy, only, and fast.
  3. Be Successful and Make Money by Helping Other People be Successful and Make Money
    Spot chain reactions and be the catalyst.
  4. Target Nonconsumers and Nonconsumption
    Jason borrowed this concept from Clayton Christensen’s Innovators Dilemma and Innovators Solution.
  5. Question Your Work Regularly
    Why are we doing this?
  6. Read your Product
    People pay too much attention to pixels and not enough to words.
  7. Err on the Side of Simple
    Start with the easy way.
  8. Invest in What Doesn’t Change
    Principles can last.
  9. Follow the Chefs
    You become famous and successful by giving knowledge away.
  10. Interruption is the Enemy of Productivity
    Favor passive communication like email over things that are instantaneous but interrupt your workflow.
  11. Road Maps Send You in the Wrong Direction
    Road Maps lock you into the past.
  12. Be Clear in Crisis
    People love you even more if you are open, honest, public and responsive during a crisis.
  13. Make Tiny Decisions
    When you make tiny decisions, you can’t make big mistakes.
  14. Make it Matter
    Everything you do should matter.

Bigger Computer Monitors = More Productivity

Monday, March 10th, 2008

The conclusion isn’t new, but another study demonstrates that Bigger Computer Monitors = More Productivity:

Researchers at the University of Utah tested how quickly people performed tasks like editing a document and copying numbers between spreadsheets while using different computer configurations: one with an 18-inch monitor, one with a 24-inch monitor and with two 20-inch monitors. Their finding: People using the 24-inch screen completed the tasks 52% faster than people who used the 18-inch monitor; people who used the two 20-inch monitors were 44% faster than those with the 18-inch ones. There is an upper limit, however: Productivity dropped off again when people used a 26-inch screen.

Girls and young women are now the most prolific web users

Monday, March 10th, 2008

Girls and young women are now the most prolific web users:

A recent study by the Pew Internet Project in America on teens in social media found that blogging growth among teenagers is almost entirely fuelled by girls, whom it describe as a new breed of “super-communicators”. Some 35% of girls, compared with 20% of boys, have blogs; 32% of girls have their own websites, against 22% of boys.

Girls have embraced social networking sites on a massive scale, with 70% of American girls aged 15-17 having built and regularly worked on a profile page on websites such as MySpace, Bebo and Facebook, as opposed to 57% of boys of the same age.

McCartney cashes in on Beatles’ catalog

Monday, March 10th, 2008

McCartney cashes in on Beatles' catalog — to the tune of $400 million:

British singer Paul McCartney has reached a $400 million agreement with iTunes for the distribution of the Beatles’ back catalog.

The former Beatles star, who is currently mired in a bitter divorce, officially sanctioned the Internet download service to offer the band’s musical hits from albums such as “Sergeant Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band,” the Daily Mail said Saturday.

McCartney will not be the only one enjoying the profitable deal. Former Beatles drummer Ringo Starr will receive a portion of the profits, as will the families of late Beatles stars George Harrison and John Lennon.

Portions of the multimillion-dollar payout also will go to pop singer Michael Jackson, along with the EMI and Sony recording groups, who each own certain Beatles recording or publishing rights.

Journalist becomes the story at Mark Zuckerberg SXSWi keynote

Monday, March 10th, 2008

Journalist becomes the story at Mark Zuckerberg SXSWi keynote:

Ugh. Talk about losing an audience.

During Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s keynote address Sunday here at South by Southwest Interactive (SXSWi), on-stage interviewer Sarah Lacy out-and-out bombed, becoming much more of the story than she should have been and having the capacity crowd turn on her over the course of the hour discussion.

“Other than rough interviews,” an audience member asked Zuckerberg during a short Q&A session at the end of the keynote, “what are some of the biggest challenges Facebook faces?”

“Has this been a rough interview?” Lacy asked Zuckerberg.

“I wasn’t asking you, I was asking Mark,” the audience member said.

The battle between Lacy and the audience began almost immediately. From the beginning of her interview with Zuckerberg, she repeatedly interrupted him, and all around me, I started to hear annoyed murmurs of people saying that she should stop doing so.

Later on, Zuckerberg himself seemed to get annoyed by Lacy’s style. As he was answering one of her questions, she began to talk over him, only to notice his reaction.

“I kind of cut you off,” she said. “You kind of had this hurt look, like, ‘I was talking.’”

Near me in the third row of the ballroom, someone said, “Is she serious?”

It only got worse from there.

At one point, Lacy got confused about how much time was left for the interview, and Zuckerberg teased her.

“Did you run out of questions?” he asked.

The line got a huge cheer from the thousands in the audience.

By now, it became clear to me and everyone around me that the audience was totally on Zuckerberg’s side and totally against Lacy. A few minutes later she began to ask him about a series of journals he has kept about Facebook’s progress over the years. Zuckerberg clearly felt that she was leading him, and seemed to clam up a little bit.

“You have to ask questions,” he said.

Again, his line generated a massive cheer from the crowd.

By now, Lacy was becoming aware of how she was losing the crowd, and said, “Anybody who’s seen my (TV) show…has seen me throw a whole glass of water on (Techcrunch founder Michael) Arrington.”

With a sly look, Zuckerberg grabbed her water glass and moved it out of her reach.

She then tried to follow up the line of questioning about the journals, saying that one of the interesting things about his process was that he burned the journals when he was done with them.

“I don’t do that,” Zuckerberg said. “You made that up.”

Shocked, Lacy called out to the back of the room where someone who had apparently sat and talked with Lacy and Zuckerberg the night before was sitting in an attempt to get confirmation that he had said he burned his journals.

Someone from the crowd yelled out at the top of his lungs, “Talk about something interesting!”

Again, a monstrous cheer.

At this point, Lacy lost it.

“Try doing what I do for a living,” she said. “It’s not that easy.”

The crowd was not sympathetic, and some demanded that she turn the microphone over to the audience so they could ask questions.

So she responded angrily, “Let’s go with the Digg model and let them have mob rule.”

And as the audience members began to ask questions, she said, “Someone send me a message afterward about exactly why I sucked so much.”

In response, someone yelled out, “What’s your e-mail address?”

And someone else shouted, “Check Twitter.”

Indeed, a quick glance at some of the Tweets that went out during the interview were devastating to Lacy.
[...]
But it was her style that lost her the audience almost from the minute it started. She seemed flirty with him, trying to put on an air of being his buddy, when what the audience wanted was to listen to Zuckerberg talk.

Sarah Lacy’s response isn’t too impressive either:

Brain Enhancement Is Wrong, Right?

Sunday, March 9th, 2008

The New York Times has a fairly light article on smart drugs — Brain Enhancement Is Wrong, Right?

In a recent commentary in the journal Nature, two Cambridge University researchers reported that about a dozen of their colleagues had admitted to regular use of prescription drugs like Adderall, a stimulant, and Provigil, which promotes wakefulness, to improve their academic performance. The former is approved to treat attention deficit disorder, the latter narcolepsy, and both are considered more effective, and more widely available, than the drugs circulating in dorms a generation ago.

Letters flooded the journal, and an online debate immediately bubbled up. The journal has been conducting its own, more rigorous survey, and so far at least 20 respondents have said that they used the drugs for nonmedical purposes, according to Philip Campbell, the journal’s editor in chief. The debate has also caught fire on the Web site of The Chronicle of Higher Education, where academics and students are sniping at one another.

What an amazingly zero-sum view of the world you must have if you’re upset that scientists and scholars are unfairly expanding our body of knowledge.