If China invades Taiwan, Michael Peck says, it may be with infantry with only minimal support from tanks:
To successfully invade Taiwan, China must grapple with a traditional problem of amphibious warfare: infantry storming a beach only have the firepower they can carry on their backs, while the defender enjoys the advantages of terrain, fortification and heavy weapons. Since World War II, one solution has been to land tanks and other armored vehicles that either swim ashore under their own power, or are transported by specialized landing craft. Indeed, a shortage of Landing Ship Tanks (LST) constrained Allied amphibious operations throughout World War II.
However, Goldstein argues that masses of Chinese light infantry — backed by heavy firepower from missiles, aircraft, drones and artillery as well as paratroopers and helicopters — could successfully land on Taiwan without the need for tanks. “My view is that tanks are nice to have but not really essential,” Goldstein told Uncommon Defense. “They are quite vulnerable to Javelin [anti-tank missile]-type weapons as well as kamikaze drones, and the Chinese are well aware of this. I think tanks would be involved, but light infantry would bear the brunt of the attack in small fast craft.”
In Goldstein’s timeline for a hypothetical Chinese invasion, the invasion would begin with a massive bombardment of Taiwan. “Within a few hours, 20,000 to 30,000 heliborne and airborne troops are on the ground, creating chaos and taking over key locations such as airfields and small ports,” he said. “Chinese mobilization begins in earnest at that point and the first landings take place 24 to 48 hours later, so maybe T + 2 days. Lodgments are solidified during T + 4 to 6, and then breakouts are initiated the following week. Nearly complete conquest takes 8 to 10 weeks.”
Key to this plan would be ensuring adequate sealift. China has a dozen or so major amphibious assault vessels – including the new 40,000-ton Type 076 class – plus numerous smaller naval landing craft. They would be joined by the China Coast Guard with around 500 ships, plus hundreds more vessels from the paramilitary People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia. This force would be supplemented by China’s huge commercial fleet, including more than 5,000 merchant ships, as well as dozens of RO-RO (roll-on roll-off) ferries that can carry tanks.
But what would truly enable an infantry-centric invasion would be China’s 400,000 fishing boats. While they’re too small to carry vehicles, Goldstein believes they haul 500,000 troops to Taiwan over the course of a two-month campaign.
Any seaborne invasion would be very difficult for the first 100 hours. Blockade has a much better chance of getting Communists what they want.
Recently, Xi Jinping has overseen a significant purge of senior military leaders, including “investigations” of Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, chief of staff of the Central Military Commission’s Joint Staff Department. Some fear that Xi wants to get young, fanatical, stupid warfighters into high places so that no one will be smart enough to resist orders to attack.
China already smuggles masses of people to the USA in containers. There is a lot of tourism between China and Taiwan. If they wanted to, China could have hundreds of boots on the ground as “tourists”, and they’d just have to go to the ports to pick up their weapons. Then they unlock the shipping containers containing thousands of their compatriots, along with their supplies.
How many rifles can you pack in a shipping container? How many drones? How many motorcycles?
The Taiwan independence party lost many seats in parliament, and it is now a minority party, although it does control the Presidency. A substantial part of the Taiwan population is Han Chinese, and many of them, plus other ethnicities, favor reunification with China, although not necessarily under communist control. The Kuomintang is still a major political patty there.
Taiwans’s economy is also heavily integrated with China’s, and many Taiwanese work on the mainland.
The point is that any move by China to forcibly reunite the island will have the support of many Taiwanese.
Current American policy, which repudiates our One China agreement, is driving China to a military solution to the problem.
If China is forced into a large military action, that alone SHOULD constitute a victory for the US, but only if our leadership is operating with the understanding that unification isn’t a matter of, “if,” but of, “when,” and our best bet is to simply exact the greatest amount of effort and treasure from them for their trouble.
As it stands I fully expect US to fumble this and try to actually stop it, an even more idiotic Ukraine.
Behind the scenes both China and the US are working to make reunification more palatable. The main effort is to move the chip foundries to the US or to the mainland. With them gone the strategic import of Taiwan is greatly reduced.
My impression is that most Taiwanese are not at all interested in a Ukraine style defense of their island and will not sacrifice much to prevent annexation. But I suppose that was true of Ukraine in 2014, and that changed quickly. China’s best bet is something rapid and without a lot of bloodshed meaning paradrops without massive local force superiority are probably a bad idea.