This was twenty-first-century reverse gunboat diplomacy

Tuesday, November 5th, 2024

Prisoners of Geography by Tim MarshallTim Marshall opens his chapter on China (in Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Explain Everything About the World), with this anecdote:

In October 2006, a US Naval Super Carrier Group led by the thousand-foot USS Kitty Hawk was confidently sailing through the East China Sea between southern Japan and Taiwan, minding everyone’s business, when, without warning, a Chinese navy submarine surfaced in the middle of the group.

An American aircraft carrier of that size is surrounded by about twelve other warships, with air cover above and submarine cover below. The Chinese vessel, a Song-class attack submarine, may well be very quiet when running on electric power, but, still, this was the equivalent to Pepsi-Cola’s management popping up in a Coca-Cola board meeting after listening under the table for half an hour.

The Americans were amazed and angry in equal measure. Amazed because they had no idea a Chinese sub could do that without being noticed, angry because they hadn’t noticed and because they regarded the move as provocative, especially as the sub was within torpedo range of the Kitty Hawk itself. They protested, perhaps too much, and the Chinese said: “Oh! What a coincidence, us surfacing in the middle of your battle group that is off our coast, we had no idea.”

This was twenty-first-century reverse gunboat diplomacy; whereas the British used to heave a man-of-war off the coast of some minor power to signal intent, the Chinese heaved into view off their own coast with a clear message: “We are now a maritime power, this is our time, and this is our sea.” It has taken four thousand years, but the Chinese are coming to a port — and a shipping lane — near you.

Comments

  1. Bomag says:

    With all the talk of China playing the long game in diplomacy/war, maybe this is short sighted?

    If, via Zeihan et al, China has benefited mightily from US enforcement of open waterborne trade worldwide, it might behoove them to keep that gravy train rolling; not point out that carrier groups are obsolete, and send us home to live behind walls.

  2. Gaikokumaniakku says:

    The author may be exaggerating American shock to make a point. William S. Lind wrote about many such incidents and always disparaged pearl-clutching journos who tried to make such incidents seem scary. According to Lind, all of the world’s militaries pull such stunts all the time.

  3. Bruce says:

    Gaikokumaniakku is right. We spent the whole Cold War playing chicken in the North Pacific and I think Black Sea, cowboys and Russkies.

  4. T. Beholder says:

    Ah, that famous American optimism. =)

    This was twenty-first-century reverse gunboat diplomacy; whereas the British used to heave a man-of-war off the coast of some minor power to signal intent, the Chinese heaved into view off their own coast with a clear message:

    And then they made a little detour near Shemya Island shortly before this book was published:
    https://visionsofempire.wordpress.com/2015/10/13/china-in-alaska-part-i-sending-a-message/
    Was this included in 2016 update?

  5. Jim says:

    Nixon did this.

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