Recent war games led by retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson looked at what could happen if U.S. pulls troops out of Iraq and found three developments likely:
- Majority Shiites would drive Sunnis out of ethnically mixed areas west to Anbar province.
- Southern Iraq would erupt in civil war between Shiite groups.
- The Kurdish north would solidify its borders and invite a U.S. troop presence there.
In Anderson’s terms, it wouldn’t be apocalyptic, but it would be ugly.