The North Korean Statement on Kim Jong Il’s Death

Monday, December 19th, 2011

The North Korean Statement on Kim Jong Il’s Death includes many untranslated uses of the Korean term Juche:

He dedicated all his life to the inheritance and accomplishment of the revolutionary cause of Juche and energetically worked day and night for the prosperity of the socialist homeland, happiness of people, reunification of the country and global independence. He passed away too suddenly to our profound regret.

As you might imagine, the term has a rather vague definition:

Juche is a Korean word usually translated as “self-reliance.” In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), “Juche” refers specifically to a political thesis of Kim Il-sung, the Juche Idea, that identifies the Korean masses as the masters of the country’s development. From the 1950s to the 1970s, Kim elaborated the Juche Idea into a set of principles that the government uses to justify its policy decisions. Among these are independence from great powers, a strong military posture, and reliance on Korean national resources. “Juche” has sometimes been translated in North Korean sources as “independent stand” or “spirit of self-reliance”, and has also been interpreted as “always putting Korean things first.” According to Kim Il-sung, the Juche Idea is based on the belief that “man is the master of everything and decides everything.”

North Korean socialism is a particularly nationalist strain — not unlike Stalin’s, Mao’s, Pol Pot’s, etc.

The death of a Stalinist leader is always followed by a power struggle of some kind, Paul Roderick Gregory of Forbes explains:

The death of a Stalinist leader disrupts the equilibrium of established coalitions and payments systems. Party and military leaders are uncertain as to whom to pledge their allegiance. But one thing is sure: The “beloved leader” made sure that there is no Gorbachev or Deng ready to embark on real economic or political reform.

What are the possible outcomes for a post-beloved-leader North Korea?

The most likely outcome is a successful passing of the baton to the anointed successor. Kim Jong Il’s father wrote the playbook on communist dynastic successions, and it has worked elsewhere, such as in Syria. Yet, the faction of the “beloved successor” must have the financial resources to solidify its hold on power. If the West can effectively deny it the illicit proceeds from drug, weapons trade, and Macao banks, it could deny Kim Jong Un’s succession victory.

An Arab Spring is unlikely, given the emaciated and helpless state of the North Korean population. But we do know that the North Korean people are now much better informed about world events. Refugees now know the latest South Korean hit songs and the names of its soap opera stars. I cannot imagine an Arab Spring but the beloved leader’s passing could spark an attempted mass exodus, such as the one that brought down the East German regime.

The Chinese state has never been tested with a massive flow of refugees. We do not know how it will react. Unfortunately, the South Koreans (joined of course by China) do not appear to welcome such a mass flight that would lead to the reunification of Korea. In such a case, China might intervene to make North Korea its protectorate.

Certain is that North Korea will withdraw into its shell until the succession is resolved. During this period, it makes no sense to conduct diplomacy or to make any initiatives. It is also a time of danger. A threatened Kim Jong Un regime will seek out foreign enemies to distract attention. There are few limits to its potential mischief.

The BBC coverage of Kim Jong Il’s death includes North Korean television footage — which can’t have been seen by too many North Koreans:

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