Comments on: Catastrophic normal accidents will happen with increasing regularity

By: Jim

Jim — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 03:09:25 +0000

That is an astute observation, Phileas. Indeed, to abuse Bill Gates, “People overestimate how much decline can occur in one year, and underestimate how much decline can occur in ten.”

By: Phileas Frogg

Phileas Frogg — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 15:27:57 +0000

When degradation happens universally, at a roughly uniform rate, it’s much harder to detect, and much more likely to be accepted as, “normal,” than genuinely isolated incidents.

Isolated asymmetric catastrophes are more jarring for the public and more like to cause a response than universal and uniform ones. “Family of 3 is carjacked and killed,” in a small town is more likely to elicit a response than, “Over the course of 10 years, your small town/neighborhood became so dangerous and laden with druggies and homeless people that you stopped letting your kids outside,” despite the fact that the latter is far more likely to personally cause issues for you than the former, including more of the former.

By: Jim

Jim — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 17:34:44 +0000

This terrifying uptick from years prior resulted in the FAA and NTSB convening safety summits in March and May, respectively. Whether they dared to discuss root causes seems unlikely.

Take it from me: the “aviation safety” “people” would rather disown their family than restore flight to the exclusive province of high-IQ young and youngish white men.

That is not hyperbole—read it literally.

By: Bob Sykes

Bob Sykes — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 14:23:17 +0000

I see that I, myself, have provided a funny proof.

Oh for an editing function.

[Fortunately we have a Natural General Intelligence editor.]

By: Bob Sykes

Bob Sykes — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 14:21:04 +0000

It is claimed that 20% of American adults are illiterate, and that perhaps as many as 40% of Gen Alpha are illiterate. Elite colleges like Harvard and Berkeley are finding out that some of their freshman are illiterate and innumerate.

We have entered a new Dark Age of illiteracy and superstition. Slavery and tyranny will soon follow.