Comments on: Collective intelligence is real https://www.isegoria.net/2026/07/collective-intelligence-is-real/ From the ancient Greek for equality in freedom of speech; an eclectic mix of thoughts, large and small Sat, 22 Aug 2026 01:15:09 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.6.1 By: Harper’s Notes https://www.isegoria.net/2026/07/collective-intelligence-is-real/comment-page-1/#comment-3762578 Harper’s Notes Thu, 09 Jul 2026 17:19:43 +0000 https://www.isegoria.net/?p=54488#comment-3762578 RAND developed the Delphi Method during the early Cold War for estimating thermonuclear warfare casualties among other things. It works well under the right circumstances. Uses anonymity and sequential polling. But the right circumstances are generally difficult and rare. Most recently the Super-forecaster Project (Tetlock) has resulted in several the high-scorers participating in (betting) prediction markets, in which there are both advantages and disadvantages in non-anonymity.

]]> By: Gaikokumaniakku https://www.isegoria.net/2026/07/collective-intelligence-is-real/comment-page-1/#comment-3762576 Gaikokumaniakku Thu, 09 Jul 2026 14:35:41 +0000 https://www.isegoria.net/?p=54488#comment-3762576 This is why crazy paradigm-breakers have so much potential for improvements to the collective system. Sadly, the rewards usually don’t work out. Crazy, dishonest charlatans are often rewarded, and crazy honest autistic crusaders for truth are usually burned at the stake.

I think it was Colin Wilson who claimed the crucial distinction between real thinkers and followers was that real thinkers were capable of breaking away from socially acceptable paradigms.

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