…destroyed or damaged potentially scores of Russian warplanes, including Tupolev Tu-95 bombers, Beriev A-50 radar planes and transports.

The SBU claimed it hit more than 40 planes. The agency circulated videos, relayed across the Russian telecommunications network by the explosives-laden quadcopter drones, of four Tu-95s burning at Olenya.[...] Only the Tu-160 is still in production, albeit slowly and on a small scale.

In other words, Tu-95 (confirmed hits) are mostly obsolete.

Russia’s nuclear triad

…is more how the Americans traditionally see things than how things work.

In USSR missiles were always prioritized, from the time Strategic Rocket Forces were put together under Nedelin and ever after.

Now, who knows — but there’s visible superiority in hypersonic missiles and of course Poseidon thing, so…

For the “brass”, A-50 may be a more inconvenient loss.

The fact that Ukraine went after some of Russia’s most prized aerial capabilities, many of which are directly tied to its nuclear deterrent, ups the ante:

While these aircraft have rained destruction on Ukraine from afar and are legitimate targets, they also underpin a leg of Russia’s nuclear deterrent. This will undoubtedly provoke a unique response from the Kremlin who has warned that widespread attacks against its strategic capabilities would be a red line.

In other words, it’s a deliberate attempt at escalation. A desperate move, not unlike the lunge at a nuclear power station was, but somewhat smarter.

McChuck says:

Total losses turned out to be 8 aircraft.

5× overreporting rate is well within their usual range.

Bob Sykes says:

Russia’s Pearl Harbor. Does anyone in Washington remember what ensued?

More like Winter War 2.0 or Manchurian campaign. As it was almost from the start. Working out kinks in the system one after another and testing new hardware. It’s only a bit beyond the expected (see a mention of tire camo in TWZ article). I mean, if every BS failure and every big penetration of defenses (Storm Shadow popping a HQ, Moskva sinking, USV attacks http://www.hisutton.com/Timeline-2022-Ukraine-Invasion-At-Sea.html etc) that happened so far was in the same month, yeah, this could achieve something. As it is, they were just bad enough to encourage fixing things and/or crackdowns on sloppiness and incompetence.

Also, this attack could not have occurred without some degree of American foreknowledge and participation.

Maybe, but plausible deniability would cover it. Though it goes both ways, of course.

A nuclear strike on part of America’s nuclear triad is well within the range of possible reprisals.

Depends how far you stretch “possible”.

Most likely, some asymmetric unpleasantness. Or simply go much further in helping Iran, and leak it after the fact. If the Houthis subsequently get even bolder, “not our fault, lol”.

If a reminder on where the real deterrence lies is in order, it’s probably easier to bait some pirate with a ship bigger than a speedboat to attack a Russian vessel and overkill him on livestream from submarine nobody tracked, or something like that.

Trump appears to have lost control of the US’s military and intelligence services.

Are there reasons to assume he had it to begin with?

The lunatic Kellogg appears to be in charge of our peace negotiations with Russia. We may be in for a wild ride.

Well, duh. It’s either proglodites or neocons. Quoth Moldbug —

But Trump ran on all this isolationist, protectionist rhetoric. Why doesn’t he hire isolationists and protectionists, not neoconservatives or protectionists?

Show me the American isolationist foreign-policy professionals. Since America has not had an isolationist foreign policy since my grandfather was a baby, filling these hires literally requires us to raid the tomb.

— Narrative and reality in Trump 47

The number of aircraft destroyed is less important than the fact that they were part of Russia’s nuclear triad. Also, this attack could not have occurred without some degree of American foreknowledge and participation. A nuclear strike on part of America’s nuclear triad is well within the range of possible reprisals.

Trump appears to have lost control of the US’s military and intelligence services. The lunatic Kellogg appears to be in charge of our peace negotiations with Russia. We may be in for a wild ride.