Comments on: Past athletic performance doesn’t guarantee future results https://www.isegoria.net/2023/10/past-athletic-performance-doesnt-guarantee-future-results/ From the ancient Greek for equality in freedom of speech; an eclectic mix of thoughts, large and small Fri, 18 Sep 2026 13:57:50 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.6.1 By: Bomag https://www.isegoria.net/2023/10/past-athletic-performance-doesnt-guarantee-future-results/comment-page-1/#comment-3623382 Bomag Mon, 02 Oct 2023 12:39:58 +0000 https://www.isegoria.net/?p=50516#comment-3623382 The late bloomer is a thing; appears to be more common than I thought.

I’m wondering about measuring the early maturing aspect: growth plates? I suspect the top juniors are early mature-ers; wondering what percentage of early mature-ers go on to be top seniors compared to percentage of slow mature-ers. The article doesn’t cover this: if ten percent of kids are early maturers, and nine of them are tagged as top athletes as youths, time would be expected to weed them out later to match the one percent of late bloomers who become top seniors.

]]> By: Grasspunk https://www.isegoria.net/2023/10/past-athletic-performance-doesnt-guarantee-future-results/comment-page-1/#comment-3623310 Grasspunk Sun, 01 Oct 2023 19:41:39 +0000 https://www.isegoria.net/?p=50516#comment-3623310 I’ve been watching this play out in the sport of rugby, which is extremely strong in our SW France region. The best young players around 10-11yo get invited to start at a specific middle school associated with the big club. Three years later a lot have already been let go because they did not grow enough and there’s a second cohort that comes through at the start of high school. Often the let-go kids quit the sport because they had huge expectations that were not met.

Rugby has a lot of international competition at the U20 level and it is instructive to see a match from, say, 2017 to how many made it to international level. Then you see if you could have guessed them from their match performance.

[After "Grasspunk the math tutor" there's now "Grasspunk the assistant rugby coach and boxing coach". One day I'll write out a cheat sheet.]

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