Both groups often work in situations where the factors can be much more complicated than just their part in the interaction, and they need to understand how their work can affect MANY other outcomes. Just a small change can have a major effect.

For example, getting a class to start working right after they arrive in the room. I started using a stamp on the students’ papers, who started as soon as they came into the room. They got a double stamp if they also headed their papers.

The kids asked why, I just smiled and kept circulating. Within 2 days, the kids had figured out how to get their papers stamped, and were working immediately as soon as they came in.

That was a small change; the cost was only the stamp, and the effort required to apply it. But, it meant that they were actively working even before the bell rang, which dramatically increased learning time.

It also decreased fights; some of the negative interactions occurred because kids were bored, and started trash-talking. That could carry over to in-class fights.

For cops, similar small changes could impact their work, positively or negatively. It would be helpful for them to learn that.

Playthrough of SimRefinery
https://youtu.be/DZ6Cqn5rTfs

Can there ever be such a thing as an “accurate simulation”, i.e. one that reliably predicts the future?

The more realistic approach is contained in George Box’s famous aphorism: “All models are wrong. Some models are useful”.

I once read an account of mountaineers preparing for an assault on a difficult Himalayan peak. They built a model of the climb — rate of climb on different stages, Sherpas carrying oxygen and supplies, alternate routes, etc.

The model could not be used for prediction, because there would be too many unknowns in the actual climb — changing weather conditions, falls, sickness in team members, etc.

However, the model was very useful for making the climbers aware of interactions — the chances of reaching the summit were very dependent on what happened earlier at lower altitudes in the supply chain. The climbers found that this awareness helped them make better decisions during the climb, as real-world exigencies forced departures from the original plan.

Perhaps a simulation does not have to be accurate to be useful?

If you’re not trying to get a grip on the real world, then all thought is mental masturbation.