So recently we have even more verified no doubt 100% confirmation of exactly what I said in Azerbaijan vs. Armenia short war. It was short because the Armenians got totally whipped by drones. The Armenians had plenty of tanks, artillery all the stuff that is supposed to be “unbeatable” yet is was all blown to hell because of a few million dollars worth of drones allowed precise targeting.

And while I’m at it to further pile on,

“…News flash: You can’t go into a modern battlefield without heavy armor, period. And, it will only get worse. Those poor bastards manning those “lightweight and cheap missile systems” are sitting out there in the open, and all it takes to deal with them are some reasonably attentive artillery observers and ye olde multiple-launch missile systems…”

and yet here he is saying that a fast moving squad of say 4 humvees with missiles are in TOTAL peril by a system that is stuck in one place like artillery. Like they magically can’t be hit. Like the artillery has some sort of super power where they can blast everyone else but never any harm will come to them. I ask you in a fast moving computerized war would you rather be in a fast moving mobile humvee with super fast shooting guns protecting against artillery and rockets to fire back or would you like to be sitting around an emplaced artillery surrounded by tons of ammo???

Look at the Iraq war. We had a huge advantage but constantly the Iraqis were moving around the desert shooting scuds. I mean scuds are not tiny things and most of the ground they covered was flat and featureless. Now things have improved but it does make my point that small squads of rapidly moving targets are much harder to hit.

Listen to this,“…Sam J, I am afraid, has fallen prey to one of these meme-trails with what he’s saying about tanks. News flash: You can’t go into a modern battlefield without heavy armor…” and “…Sam J., what you know about modern combat in terms of “reality” vs. what some pundits have had to say…?

Could be written on the head of a pin, with room to spare.,,”

and he blathers on about consultants selling books but I’m not a consultant nor am I selling books. I just look at what’s available and even provide to the actual parts. What they can do you can look up for yourself. Everything I provided was just public accounts where tanks were blasted to fuck all, the solders counting on the tanks were blasted to fuck all, the artillery that was supposed to “win,win, win” did, according to their own accounts, fuck all. And I suppose that “LISTEN TO ME I KNOW EVERRYTHING “Kirk” will probably provide you with fuck all facts or any battles info to support any damn thing he says. I have severe doubts that all the “things” he says he has done are anything but figments of his imagination. Maybe they are maybe they are not but he has no supporting evidence to any of the assertions he makes. It’s all listen to me and name calling. If “listen to me I’m the authority and name calling” is how we run our military then no damn wonder we can’t win anything. And by the way if he was in charge of so much why didn’t we win anything???

When really it was destined to be used to install a tyranny more complete than any tyranny in all of human history.

How naïve they were.

How naïve we were.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ashgP4YMdJw

Many months ago everyone was calling me the village idiot because I said that Taiwan, with some strategic planning and lots of microprocessors, could hold the Chinese off indefinitely.

Israeli artillery fired 170,000 shells…” and you people are telling me,”boy we will really get tough next time”. The Israelis looked like fools. They eventually had nothing of substance to bomb and any bombing they did was of no strategic value at even the slightest. The whole time Hezbollah was firing rockets at Israel. They COULD NOT stop them.

“…According to the findings of the post-war military investigations the IDF shelling succeeded only in destroying about 100 out of 12,000 Katyusha launchers…”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War

With the ability to fire back AI cruise missiles like I postulated there would have been complete panic. Jews would have started abandoning the country in mass.

Look at videos of Xnor.ai . Their stuff is amazing. They say it will run on a $2 processor and identify people.

https://www.geekwire.com/2020/exclusive-apple-acquires-xnor-ai-edge-ai-spin-paul-allens-ai2-price-200m-range/

You’re wrong because of “facts”. They used tunnels to shield the machine gun and RPG teams. Did massive B-52 strikes in Vietnam kill all the North Vietnamese in tunnels? You know damn well it didn’t. The Israelis don’t have enough bombs to flatten all of Lebanon and if Hezbollah was firing back at the same rate ANY victory would be Pyrrhic at the very best and a total disaster. I just showed you a cheap ass processor and camera for less than $20 that could be used to keep watch while they sheltered in tunnels. The really small ones could watch over the border for months with one Li-ion battery and precisely determine when the Israelis were coming and where they were going. Every time the tanks move to the border fire a cheap ass rocket with a cheap ass optical guidance system to hit a tank and boom, $2 million a pop for $500 worth of rocket and sensors. They didn’t have so many tunnels in Gaza I’m told because the water table is too high for them to be effective as they are elsewhere. Besides the Gazians are in a big concentration camp so they don’t have the ability to do long planned defense. Gaza and Lebanon are two totally different situations. Some of you are blind as bats that worship the “Holy tank” when we can see 100% that a $2 million tank can be taken out by a $200 or less RPG. Combine this with light battery powered aircraft or drones, AI and neural nets to hunt tanks and the tanks would all be sitting ducks. It’s beyond me how you people just ignore reality and what has actually happened. The cost structure of big, heavy, expensive, slow just will not add up over time with computing getting faster and faster every day. You all sound like religious nuts that worship the “Holy tank and Holy artillery”. What if during the Lebanon-Israeli war Hezbollah had 20,000 drones with 80mm mortar level explosives that looked for people, buildings, planes, military equipment, etc….instead of those cheap ass fire and pray rockets which are really, really of very little military use? I bet you could build something worthwhile for $500 so you would have 20,000 anti-tank, anti-personal, anti-whatever attack rockets that would automatically look for targets for $10 million. Less than the cost of 6 tanks. This is in no way out of the question. You could use the same rockets but with a optical guidance system on the nose. There’s also no way possible to build enough anti-missle missiles to stop them at this level. It wouldn’t even need to be rockets it could be low level planes like the switchblade I linked. It would cost very little to build this and would provide a weapon of mass destruction level damage on the Israelis.

The “Holy tank” crew keep saying they can destroy enough of Lebanon that they will “win”. I say that’s fantasy, you people are drinking the funny spiked coolaid. Are the Jews going to kill EVERYONE because a couple of their soldiers are kidnapped. Especially since they are occupying other peoples territory??? I assure you just the cost of cheap unguided bombs alone would bankrupt the State of Israel to kill “everyone” in Lebanon and in reality they would never be able to do it with conventional weapons. The blow back would be massive. People would say to themselves ,”if they are going to kill everyone then it behooves us to wipe them out before they kill us too”. Big problem.

What you can not and will not process is that the nature of defense has changed due to technology. There is a balance of Defense to offense but they don;t have to be equal. Offense and mass armies have been the paradigm for a long time and that is breaking down. Defense and the ability to strike back and make offense a much trickier deal are moving to a more powerful position. Get used to it.

What a useless waste of time and typical mindlessness. How about we run the same scenario with the US side having one million battery powered drones with AI neural nets set to recognize humans and a cheap ass thermal camera on a battery powered drone that has a few ounces of explosive. They would fly around an area, chase down any humans they saw and blow them to pieces. Don’t think this can be done? The processor for the AI is the same as a cell phone. Around $10-$20. This company used to have a kick ass video where they could ride around in a car with a cell phone and recognize all kinds of things, people, stop signs it was major impressive with only a small cheap micro-controller. I can’t find it as Apple bought them for $200 million, but here’s one video. I assure you they could easily find a human with a thermal camera. Computer less than $20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJ1k0bOI4gA

here’s a Thermal camera for $180

MLX90640-D110 Thermal Camera

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07ZKJPZ7Z?tag=duckduckgo-ffcm-20&linkCode=ogi&th=1&psc=1

You could vibrate this thing vertically and horizontally with a $1 speaker to increase resolution. Within two years the resolution at the minimum will double for the same price or cheaper. You actually could combine this with an infrared camera. The thermal looks for hot spots and the infrared is used to see the target and chase it down. Works with a $20 micro-controller.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07RJRBP65/ref=sspa_dk_detail_2?psc=1&pd_rd_i=B07RJRBP65&pd_rd_w=NeqDj&pf_rd_p=48d372c1-f7e1-4b8b-9d02-4bd86f5158c5&pd_rd_wg=pgOB3&pf_rd_r=72VPZW3QW9W8VZW8VWH0&pd_rd_r=388691dd-4005-4566-bd15-78a7fbfa9595&spLa=ZW5jcnlwdGVkUXVhbGlmaWVyPUEzUkI4WFFPM1Q2MzUwJmVuY3J5cHRlZElkPUEwMDAxNzIxMzM1Q1U5MEdGNjU3TyZlbmNyeXB0ZWRBZElkPUEwMTY4MjM3SU5MV1dOWlpQUDBUJndpZGdldE5hbWU9c3BfZGV0YWlsJmFjdGlvbj1jbGlja1JlZGlyZWN0JmRvTm90TG9nQ2xpY2s9dHJ1ZQ==

This cheap stuff available right now. A little software and it’s done.

Could be written on the head of a pin, with room to spare. Bluntly put, you have no real-world experience of these things, and you don’t know what you don’t know.

I spent 25 years doing “modern war”. The realities are that armor is a necessity, and what happened to the Israelis in Lebanon was due to two things: One, a momentary teetering towards the defensive side of things, and two, a total lack of competence on the side of the Israelis. Also, a distinct lack of common sense and bloody-mindedness.

Next time round, Hezbollah ain’t going to fare as well as it did, because the Israelis are a lot better at learning than they are.

None of the crap Hezbollah pulled would work against an enemy with a clarity of mind and purpose, willing to unleash full force on them. Israeli ROE was what killed most of their troops, not Hezbollah competence or some imaginary superiority of arms. I guarantee you that if they had done in Lebanon what they later did along the Gaza Strip, the majority of the Hezbollah “heroes” would have died under precision strikes before they ever had a chance to pop up and fire their AT systems. If the Russians had been the ones to go in, they’d have done unto Lebanon precisely what was done to the same sets of idiots in Syria, and blasted them out while destroying the surrounding cityscapes at the same time.

Your ideas are fantasies, and they don’t work. So long as there is heavy armor and the full panoply of supporting fires, there is no way that “light and smart” is ever going to win out against “heavy”. Been there, played the game, and we got rolled every damn time. Not until you’ve got some way of keeping infantry alive under direct and heavy artillery fire will you see the heavy armor stuff go away. Until then, it’s going to be the usual teeter-totter between “defense/armor” and “offense/weapon” that we’ve been playing since the beginning of modern warfare. Tanks aren’t going away, and they’re not suddenly rendered irrelevant. That siren song has been sounded since the ’73 Arab-Israeli War, and it hasn’t proven true since then, either. Other than in small, momentary campaigns where the one side of the equation has a short period of advantage due to some slight technology/tactical edge, it simply has not proven true.

Hell, look at the Danish/Canadian experience with their Leopards in Afghanistan for examples. The tank is not going to go away just because some small set of idiot autistic geniuses think it will. There’s a long, long way to go before you’ll see an armor-free battlefield, I’m afraid.