I like to think of him, being a classicist as well as a modernist and with a good understanding of political language, as above the current jejune faddish use of the term “populist”.

Have I correctly concluded that this excerpt is wholly from The New Yorker? That would make sense.

There are several competing hypothesis. Miscalculation and inaccurate information are one of them. The “weaker” nation doesn’t realise the depth of its disadvantage.

It’s remarkable fact that during WWII none of the combatants had a really good idea of the GDP of the other powers! Allied estimates of German production were hazy at best (and usually flattered the Germans). German estimates of Allied production caused Hitler to have temper tantrums. Japanese estimates of US production….probably revealed a lack of Japanese Spirit in the researcher who needed to be sent to the front. Banzai!

Is this why the west, especially Europe, is beginning to react so much against the current ‘refugee’ invasion?

I suggest that today it is the US and its allies that are living the lie. Your reference to the Korea crisis is a case in point. Every analysis I have read of possible war scenarios completely ignores the existence of both Russia and China and assumes they will give us a free hand on the Peninsula. In some analyses the assumption is tacit, but in others it is quite explicit. The analyses also ignore the internal politics of both Japan and South Korea. Substantial portions of both populations are adamantly opposed to any war in the region, and there are significant blocs of anti-American, pro-Communist people in both countries.

If one takes into account all the real possibilities, then it is the US that is the weaker country in the Korean theater, and it is our own Deep State/neocon regime that is delusional.