Ordinary ballistic missiles produce the same effects for much cheaper costs. Sensors are the limiting factor, and mounting them on UAVs is cheaper and gives better resolution than satellites.

Both of these rely on PNT. The military is aware of that. Fixing it entails replacing satellites with smarter TERCOM and INS.

Space’s unique terrain doesn’t offer advantage until two generations of upgrade out. Once sensors can provide a full panopticon, speed will be the next bottleneck. That’s a competition between lasers and pre-positioned robots.

I think the reason this hasn’t been done is none of the major rocket manufacturers feel they can make money off of this so there’s no demand except for those that want low cost access to space.

Another reason is the Military Industrial complex has ceased to be really innovative. They’re just ripping us off. The guys who run these are no longer engineers interested in pushing the limit. They are all business guys who just want profits and, I believe, most are not technically inclined enough, or even care, to see what can be done.

With present management of the various aerospace companies we may not be able to build anything like this. They would demand so much to do so and carry about the task in such an inefficient manner as to make it financially infeasible. Look at the present estimated cost for a new nuclear weapon. A trillion dollars. That’s just stupid. It just pure monopolist rape. I saw a bid for upgrading 400 gravity drop nuclear weapons to fit them into the F-22 and R-35. They want 40 billion. This is absurd. The nuke part is already built and the added JDAM package(precision guidance) is also already built. We may need to go to a Russian system where we have design bureaus and then bid the manufacturing. Management in this country is asking for more and more money while delivering less and less.

I thought the same thing when I read this and then I thought to myself, ‘that makes Jerry’s prediction wrong.’ I mean, I don’t see metal rods regularly raining down on America’s opponents (or China’s or Russia’s, etc.)

Perhaps this prediction will come true, but for some reason, the great powers have yet to realize the military potential of space.

The annual budget deficit of over $600 billion is about as large as the total defense budget, and in a few years, assuming interest rates remain historically low, the annual interest payment on the accumulated debt, which is rapidly expanding, will be the largest item in the budget. Then there are the huge unfunded entitlements: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, ACA, et al.

The most probable long term projection is that our Greek-like budget crisis will force us to downsize our military and to substantially reduce its capabilities.