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	<title>Comments on: It would be sensible to spend even a few billion dollars</title>
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	<link>https://www.isegoria.net/2017/10/it-would-be-sensible-to-spend-even-a-few-billion-dollars/</link>
	<description>From the ancient Greek for equality in freedom of speech; an eclectic mix of thoughts, large and small</description>
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		<title>By: Scipio Americanus</title>
		<link>https://www.isegoria.net/2017/10/it-would-be-sensible-to-spend-even-a-few-billion-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-2588101</link>
		<dc:creator>Scipio Americanus</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Oct 2017 23:55:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.isegoria.net/?p=42480#comment-2588101</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kirk, I think you would like the book I suggested to Isegoria about the anti-U-boat campaign in the Bay of Biscay while back (link in the original comment). There are a few chapters at the end where the author expands on the results of the analysis and combines them with the lessons of his experience being a part of some failed vs. some successful defense acquisition programs. One of the points he explores is how chimerical the benefits of top-down, &quot;requirements driven&quot; procurement tends to be for systems for which there&#039;s any substantial technological risk/uncertainty.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kirk, I think you would like the book I suggested to Isegoria about the anti-U-boat campaign in the Bay of Biscay while back (link in the original comment). There are a few chapters at the end where the author expands on the results of the analysis and combines them with the lessons of his experience being a part of some failed vs. some successful defense acquisition programs. One of the points he explores is how chimerical the benefits of top-down, &#8220;requirements driven&#8221; procurement tends to be for systems for which there&#8217;s any substantial technological risk/uncertainty.</p>
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		<title>By: Kirk</title>
		<link>https://www.isegoria.net/2017/10/it-would-be-sensible-to-spend-even-a-few-billion-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-2588067</link>
		<dc:creator>Kirk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Oct 2017 17:43:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.isegoria.net/?p=42480#comment-2588067</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The B-36, and other &quot;cutting-edge&quot; big-ticket weapons are exceptions to my rule about &quot;doctrine before design and procurement&quot;. You can&#039;t do doctrine or planning until the systems are built, because you don&#039;t know what you&#039;ll actually be able to do with them until you do.

I think the era from about 1900 on to some point in the future will eventually seen as a period where a lot of the rules of how to go about doing things were periodically useless in various aspects of warfare. The technological flux in aviation, for example, was particularly strong in period from about 1935 to 1965, and then it settled down to be a hell of a lot more predictable--During the early days of that era, we just didn&#039;t know what was possible vs. what was not, or how the new technology coming to fruition would work out, in the real world. Contrast that to the realm of small arms, where the ability to predict the capabilities and uses were much higher--And, we pretty much screwed that up, thinking that small arms were just like aviation, and trying to impose those rules on that arena. Otherwise, the whole SPIW fiasco wouldn&#039;t have warped things the way it did.

Finding your way through the maze of advancing technology ain&#039;t at all easy.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The B-36, and other &#8220;cutting-edge&#8221; big-ticket weapons are exceptions to my rule about &#8220;doctrine before design and procurement&#8221;. You can&#8217;t do doctrine or planning until the systems are built, because you don&#8217;t know what you&#8217;ll actually be able to do with them until you do.</p>
<p>I think the era from about 1900 on to some point in the future will eventually seen as a period where a lot of the rules of how to go about doing things were periodically useless in various aspects of warfare. The technological flux in aviation, for example, was particularly strong in period from about 1935 to 1965, and then it settled down to be a hell of a lot more predictable&#8211;During the early days of that era, we just didn&#8217;t know what was possible vs. what was not, or how the new technology coming to fruition would work out, in the real world. Contrast that to the realm of small arms, where the ability to predict the capabilities and uses were much higher&#8211;And, we pretty much screwed that up, thinking that small arms were just like aviation, and trying to impose those rules on that arena. Otherwise, the whole SPIW fiasco wouldn&#8217;t have warped things the way it did.</p>
<p>Finding your way through the maze of advancing technology ain&#8217;t at all easy.</p>
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		<title>By: Scipio Americanus</title>
		<link>https://www.isegoria.net/2017/10/it-would-be-sensible-to-spend-even-a-few-billion-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-2588038</link>
		<dc:creator>Scipio Americanus</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Oct 2017 12:10:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.isegoria.net/?p=42480#comment-2588038</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A shame, actually; the B-70 was one of the more unfortunate missed opportunities in acquisition during the Cold War. After its cancellation we spent more money to fill the requirements with several platforms that we didn&#039;t get much use out of than if we&#039;d just gone ahead and bought the production model. Also, its vulnerability to Soviet air defenses was massively overblown. Note that lower-performance SR-71s were still reliably penetrating PVO Strany&#039;s defenses long after it would have entered service, despite frantic and dedicated attempts to intercept them. 

It&#039;s amusing that we&#039;re now working on the 2037 bomber, a high-altitude, high-mach penetration bomber that should properly have been the successor to the hundred-odd Valkyries we&#039;d have in inventory now if only McNamara had thought things through a little more carefully. The operating experience and infrastructure would have saved us a boatload of cash.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A shame, actually; the B-70 was one of the more unfortunate missed opportunities in acquisition during the Cold War. After its cancellation we spent more money to fill the requirements with several platforms that we didn&#8217;t get much use out of than if we&#8217;d just gone ahead and bought the production model. Also, its vulnerability to Soviet air defenses was massively overblown. Note that lower-performance SR-71s were still reliably penetrating PVO Strany&#8217;s defenses long after it would have entered service, despite frantic and dedicated attempts to intercept them. </p>
<p>It&#8217;s amusing that we&#8217;re now working on the 2037 bomber, a high-altitude, high-mach penetration bomber that should properly have been the successor to the hundred-odd Valkyries we&#8217;d have in inventory now if only McNamara had thought things through a little more carefully. The operating experience and infrastructure would have saved us a boatload of cash.</p>
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		<title>By: Bob Sykes</title>
		<link>https://www.isegoria.net/2017/10/it-would-be-sensible-to-spend-even-a-few-billion-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-2588035</link>
		<dc:creator>Bob Sykes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Oct 2017 11:40:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.isegoria.net/?p=42480#comment-2588035</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At least the B-70 was not produced in quantity.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At least the B-70 was not produced in quantity.</p>
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