Comments on: Careful, Curious, Open-Minded, Persistent and Self-Critical https://www.isegoria.net/2015/10/careful-curious-open-minded-persistent-and-self-critical/ From the ancient Greek for equality in freedom of speech; an eclectic mix of thoughts, large and small Thu, 28 May 2026 23:08:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.6.1 By: Alrenous https://www.isegoria.net/2015/10/careful-curious-open-minded-persistent-and-self-critical/comment-page-1/#comment-2406743 Alrenous Wed, 07 Oct 2015 22:38:08 +0000 http://www.isegoria.net/?p=38994#comment-2406743 Are the superforcasters accurate enough to base real decisions on? The set of easily-measured variables often doesn’t overlap the set of important variables. Favourite recent example: consumer debt is going up. Easily measurable, but what we want to know is how much anguish excessive debt is causing. Have to measure lost utils – good luck with that.

Might well be that even superforecasters aren’t good enough to serve unless they have a bias, a propaganda angle, used to support their paymaster.

]]>