How rare should cracking be, as a proportion of the class of individuals who experience the same inputs, to be surprising?

There are two million men in the same age-cohort as Rodger. Most of them are steeped in a culture of sexuality. A good number are sexually frustrated. Let’s think about the bottom 5%, or 100,000 guys who are the absolutely most frustrated virgins who are are the most steeped in the most sexualized parts of the culture.

Still, it seems that about one of these guys does something like this about once a year. If all you knew about a guy was that he was a member of this 100,000, you would be surprised to learn he had cracked, because it’s just so rare.

If I started adding criteria — mentally ill, extreme social anxiety, psychotic, narcissistic, broken home, then maybe we are describing the accurate profile of all the guys who tend to do this, and if it’s only a few hundred dudes, you would not be so surprised to hear that one in particular was the guy who cracked.

That means, if it’s possible, then it might be good to try to develop an accurate profile, and it’s feasible to keep a few hundred dudes a year under supervision.

Central line:

Procreation (sex) is the core drive behind human evolution. And women can (roughly) always get sex if they want some. And their drive towards sex is usually mitigated by the fact that testosterone is the sex-drive hormone, and the average male has 16x the amount that an average female has. I expect the ratio is worse among young adults.

Saying that he’s wrong is banally true — killing randomish people to show your rage isn’t so good.

Saying that a young male steeped in a culture of sexuality and then not able to get any isn’t going to sometimes crack in this fashion isn’t actually very surprising, though.