Bears seeking food near people in Denver

Tuesday, July 25th, 2006

Listen to Colbert, people. From Bears seeking food near people in Denver:

Triathlete Sabrina Oei was speeding downhill at nearly 40 mph, cycling through the Colorado foothills during a race, when something brought her to a sudden, painful, stop: a bear.
[...]
Oei’s encounter is the latest anecdotal evidence coming in from around the West this year: In Nevada, near Lake Tahoe, a bear climbed into a vintage convertible July 2 and snacked on pizza and beer as a crowd gathered. In Alaska, a bear charged a jogger in an Anchorage city park this month. In Colorado Springs, a woman last week came home to find a bear rummaging through her refrigerator.

Edwardian Poverty

Tuesday, July 25th, 2006

In Edwardian Poverty, Tim Worstall explains one reason why many anti-poverty programs — like those suggested by Senator John Edwards — are guaranteed not to reduce poverty:

So how can all of these things be true? That there are people in poverty, we spend a lot to help them out of it and even when we propose (as some of the above plans are) entirely sensible things, they have no effect on the number of people in poverty? No, this isn’t an effect of moral hazard, or “welfare doesn’t work” or anything so contentious. It’s a simple artefact of the way in which poverty is defined. From the Census:

Poverty definition [...] The official poverty definition uses money income before taxes and does not include capital gains or noncash benefits (such as public housing, Medicaid, and food stamps).

The EITC has, as cited above, made a real difference. But not to the number of people counted as being in poverty; because we count only pre-tax income: something which does not include tax credits, just as it does not include taxes paid. Housing vouchers make no difference because they are not included — i.e. they are non-cash transfers. Food stamps do not count because … well, you get the picture. We could in fact print up housing vouchers like there was no tomorrow, spend on food stamps like Ted Stevens does on bridges, double, triple, even quadruple the EITC and do you know what? There would still be 37 million people defined as being below the poverty line in the USA. All that spending would have absolutely no effect whatsoever on that number.

Maybe Now We’ll Get It

Tuesday, July 25th, 2006

Ralph Kinney Bennett hopes that Maybe Now We’ll Get It:

Maybe, as this terrible business in Lebanon unfolds, we’ll finally get it:

Guerrillas like to hide behind civilians.

Muslim guerrillas take it a step further: “Civilians” are a weapon to them — as much a part of the fight as the AK-47 or RPG they carry.

Those who have visited any Hezbollah installation in Lebanon over the years always remark on the fact that there are families, women and children, in and around the place. “Secret” bases are usually hidden in plain site. Houses or apartment buildings become weapons storage or even operations centers. An innocent shed or garage may contain a Toyota or a missile launcher.

Seldom, if ever, has a guerrilla movement been able to so openly and exquisitely weave itself into the fabric of a society as Hezbollah has done in Lebanon.

The next real estate boom

Tuesday, July 25th, 2006

“Future Boy” Chris Taylor suggest that the next real estate boom may be in the pleasantly urban settlements Robert McIntyre has dubbed “New Villages”:

Rising oil prices notwithstanding, sprawling car-culture cities and vast suburbs simply do not make economic sense in the long run. As much as 50 percent of the land surface area in any given city or subdivision — we’re talking prime real estate — is taken up by roadways. For developers, less space given over to roads means more space for housing.
[...]
While you might assume that a higher density community would have more traffic, you’d be wrong. When neighborhoods are dense and walkable, studies show, people make fewer car trips. And some may even forgo owning a second car, especially as families realize that living with one less car can save them $6,000 a year on average (and again, that’s not counting price rises at the pump).

And then there’s simple math. While standard subdivisions have five units per acre, transit villages tend to pack in 20 to 25 per acre — still mostly single-family dwellings or townhomes, but without the vast lawns and backyards of suburbia. And with transit village homes selling for more than similar houses in traditional, sprawling suburbs, developers will make considerably more per acre, while fostering community and being kinder to the environment.

Nerdy questions Tyler Cowen has taken to asking new people he meets

Tuesday, July 25th, 2006

Nerdy questions Tyler Cowen has taken to asking new people he meets:

  1. What do you maximize?
  2. Can you offer a simple model of yourself, using one a few equations or a paragraph or less?
  3. What is it you hate? (NB: My colleague Bryan C. suggests there are fine but important distinctions between hating, despising, mocking, and scorning. I might add that I am not much of a hater. More generally, many people’s hates are only ‘pretend hates,’ and what they hate is perhaps the fact that they don’t really hate their stated hates at all. But I will settle for a ‘pretend hate’ answer to this question.)
  4. What is your most absurd view?

Stanford professor stumps for electoral alternative

Monday, July 24th, 2006

From Stanford professor stumps for electoral alternative:

A Stanford University computer science professor has come up with an idea to circumvent the more than 200-year-old Electoral College system and institute a national popular vote to elect the president of the United States.

The proposal by John Koza, who also invented the scratch-off lottery ticket, is receiving serious consideration by lawmakers in several states. Legislators in California, New York, Colorado, Illinois and Missouri have sponsored bills to enact such a plan.

Koza’s scheme calls for an interstate compact that would require states to throw all of their electoral votes behind the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of which candidate wins in each state. The plan doesn’t require all 50 states to join, but a combination of states that represent a majority (at least 270) of the electoral votes. If the largest states join in the agreement, only 11 would be needed.

‘Not it!’ More schools ban games at recess

Sunday, July 23rd, 2006

Michael Blowhard rightly asks, What kind of adults are these kids going to grow up to be? From Not it!:

Some traditional childhood games are disappearing from school playgrounds because educators say they’re dangerous.

Elementary schools in Cheyenne, Wyo., and Spokane, Wash., banned tag at recess this year. Others, including a suburban Charleston, S.C., school, dumped contact sports such as soccer and touch football.

In other cities, including Wichita; San Jose, Calif.; Beaverton, Ore.; and Rancho Santa Fe., Calif., schools took similar actions earlier.

These kids are not going to grow up to hold the pass against Xerxes’ Immortals.

Fear of Snakes Drove Pre-Human Evolution

Sunday, July 23rd, 2006

UC Davis anthropologist Lynne Isbell contends that a (justified) Fear of Snakes Drove Pre-Human Evolution:

To avoid becoming snake food, early mammals had to develop ways to detect and avoid the reptiles before they could strike. Some animals evolved better snake sniffers, while others developed immunities to serpent venom when it evolved. Early primates developed a better eye for color, detail and movement and the ability to see in three dimensions — traits that are important for detecting threats at close range.

Humans are descended from those same primates.

Scientists had previously thought that these traits evolved together as primates used their hands and eyes to grab insects, or pick fruit or to swing through trees, but recent discoveries from neuroscience are casting doubt on these theories.

100 SF Books

Sunday, July 23rd, 2006

Theordore Sturgeon once defended science fiction, a genre that includes some truly awful works, by noting that “Ninety percent of everything is crud.” This instance of the Pareto principle is known as Sturgeon’s Law or Sturgeon’s Revelation.

Phobos Entertainment presents a list of 100 SF Books that fall into the non-cruddy 10 percent:

  1. Childhood’s End by Arthur C. Clarke
  2. Foundation by Isaac Asimov
  3. Dune by Frank Herbert
  4. Man in the High Castle by Philip K. Dick
  5. Starship Troopers by Robert A. Heinlein
  6. Valis by Philip K. Dick
  7. Frankenstein by Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley
  8. Gateway by Frederick Pohl
  9. Space Merchants by C.M. Kornbluth & Frederick Pohl
  10. Earth Abides by George R. Stewart
  11. Cuckoo’s Egg by C.J. Cherryh
  12. Star Surgeon by James White
  13. The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch by Philip K. Dick
  14. Radix by A.A. Attanasio
  15. 2001: A Space Odyssey by Arthur C. Clarke
  16. Ringworld by Larry Niven
  17. A Case of Conscience by James Blish
  18. Last and First Man by Olaf Stapledon
  19. The Day of the Triffids by John Wyndham
  20. Way Station by Clifford Simak
  21. More Than Human by Theodore Sturgeon
  22. Gray Lensman by E. E. “Doc” Smith
  23. The Gods Themselves by Isaac Asimov
  24. The Left Hand of Darkness by Ursula K. Le Guin
  25. Behold the Man by Michael Moorcock
  26. Star Maker by Olaf Stapledon
  27. The War of the Worlds by H.G. Wells
  28. 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea by Jules Verne
  29. Heritage of Hastur by Marion Zimmer Bradley
  30. The Time Machine by H.G. Wells
  31. The Stars My Destination by Alfred Bester
  32. Slan by A.E. Van Vogt
  33. Neuromancer by William Gibson
  34. Ender’s Game by Orson Scott Card
  35. In Conquest Born by C.S. Friedman
  36. Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny
  37. Eon by Greg Bear
  38. Dragonflight by Anne McCaffrey
  39. Journey to the Center of the Earth by Jules Verne
  40. Stranger in a Strange Land by Robert Heinlein
  41. Cosm by Gregory Benford
  42. The Voyage of the Space Beagle by A.E. Van Vogt
  43. Blood Music by Greg Bear
  44. Beggars in Spain by Nancy Kress
  45. Omnivore by Piers Anthony
  46. I, Robot by Isaac Asimov
  47. Mission of Gravity by Hal Clement
  48. To Your Scattered Bodies Go by Philip Jose Farmer
  49. Brave New World by Aldous Huxley
  50. The Man Who Folded Himself by David Gerrold
  51. 1984 by George Orwell
  52. The Strange Case of Dr. Jeckyl And Mr. Hyde by Robert Louis Stevenson
  53. Snow Crash by Neal Stephenson
  54. Flesh by Philip Jose Farmer
  55. Cities in Flight by James Blish
  56. Shadow of the Torturer by Gene Wolfe
  57. Startide Rising by David Brin
  58. Triton by Samuel R. Delany
  59. Stand on Zanzibar by John Brunner
  60. A Clockwork Orange by Anthony Burgess
  61. Fahrenheit 451 by Ray Bradbury
  62. A Canticle For Leibowitz by Walter Miller
  63. Flowers for Algernon by Daniel Keyes
  64. No Blade of Grass by John Christopher
  65. The Postman by David Brin
  66. Dhalgren by Samuel Delany
  67. Berserker by Fred Saberhagen
  68. Flatland by Edwin Abbot
  69. Planiverse by A.K. Dewdney
  70. Dragon’s Egg by Robert L. Forward
  71. Downbelow Station by C.J. Cherryh
  72. Dawn by Octavia E. Butler
  73. Puppet Masters by Robert Heinlein
  74. The Doomsday Book by Connie Willis
  75. Forever War by Joe Haldeman
  76. Deathbird Stories by Harlan Ellison
  77. Roadside Picnic by Boris Strugatsky & Arkady Strugatsky
  78. The Snow Queen by Joan Vinge
  79. The Martian Chronicles by Ray Bradbury
  80. Drowned World by J.G. Ballard
  81. Cat’s Cradle by Kurt Vonnegut
  82. Red Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson
  83. Upanishads by Various
  84. Alice in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll
  85. Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams
  86. The Lathe of Heaven by Ursula K. Le Guin
  87. The Midwich Cuckoos by John Wyndham
  88. Mutant by Henry Kuttner
  89. Solaris by Stanislaw Lem
  90. Ralph 124C41+ by Hugo Gernsback
  91. I Am Legend by Richard Matheson
  92. Timescape by Gregory Benford
  93. The Demolished Man by Alfred Bester
  94. War with the Newts by Karl Kapek
  95. Mars by Ben Bova
  96. Brain Wave by Poul Anderson
  97. Hyperion by Dan Simmons
  98. The Andromeda Strain by Michael Crichton
  99. Camp Concentration by Thomas Disch
  100. A Princess of Mars by Edgar Rice Burroughs

I haven’t read the entire list — not by a long shot — but I can second many of the lists recommendations — and I can disagree with a few as well: Frankenstein and Snow Crash may be influential works, but they’re not necessarily good.

Getting an Education Online for Free

Sunday, July 23rd, 2006

Getting an Education Online for Free shares a number of resources for the modern autodidact, from Berkeley’s webcasts to educational freeware applications.

Star Wars’ Origins in Frank Herbert’s Dune

Sunday, July 23rd, 2006

Star Wars Origins in Frank Herbert’s Dune:

Star Wars
Dune
Princess Leia Princess Alia (pronounced a-leia)
Villain turns out to be hero’s father Villain turns out to be hero’s grandfather
Tatooine a desert planet Arrakis (Dune) a desert planet
Sandcrawler – Vehicle piloted by Jawas, “left over from a forgotten mining era long ago” Sandcrawler – Vehicle piloted by Arrakins, used to mine for spice
Moisture Farmers (like Uncle Owen) Dew Collectors: “…used by Fremen to line concave planting depressions where they provide a small but reliable source of water”
Spice Mines of Kessel (mentioned in passing) Spice is the most valued commodity in the universe, mined from Dune
Jedi Mind Trick – Jedi ability which controls the actions of others The Voice – Bene Gesserit ability which controls the actions of others
Jedi Bendu, the Jedi training technique which gives them excellent internal control as well as supernatural prowess in combat Prana Bindu, the Bene Gesserit training technique which gives them excellent internal control as well as supernatural prowess in combat2
Vision of Obi-Wan appears to Luke on Hoth, while he’s seemingly dying Vision of Pardot Kynes appears to Liet-Kynes in the desert, while he’s dying
The Trade Federation has a monopoly on shipping in space The Spacing Guild has a monopoly on shipping and transportation in space
Luke practices his lightsaber technique against an automated training remote Alia practices her sword technique against an automated training dummy
Millennium Falcon barely escapes from the jaws of giant, sightless space slug before it falls back into the asteroid. The Duke’s ornithopter barely escapes from the jaws of a giant, sightless sandworm before it falls back into the dunes.
Luke spies on the Sandpeople using electrobinoculars Paul spies on the Fremen using electric binoculars
Repulsors – Small devices which counteract gravity (used in the landspeeder, speeder bikes, pod racers and Jabba’s barge) Suspensors – Small devices which counteract gravity (used to suspend the Baron Harkonnen and Glowglobes)
Jabba (1983) is a worm/slug thing, about 15 feet long, with human-like facial features, arms and hands, who sits atop a dais Leto II, God Emperor of Dune (1981), is a worm/slug thing, about 15 feet long, with human-like facial features, arms and hands, who sits atop a dais

Make Way for The Sidewalk SUV

Sunday, July 23rd, 2006

According to Make Way for The Sidewalk SUV, “Motorized scooters for the disabled are finding a lucrative new market: People just sick of walking.” Sigh.

What caused the Agricultural Revolution?

Saturday, July 22nd, 2006

Tyler Cowen asks, What caused the Agricultural Revolution? and notes that he “long assumed (without much evidence) that mankind invented agriculture about 10,000 years ago because we suddenly, for some reason, became smarter” before encountering this alternative explanation, in Richard Manning’s The Oil We Eat:

It is no accident that no matter where agriculture sprouted on the globe, it always happened near rivers. You might assume, as many have, that this is because the plants needed the water or nutrients. Mostly this is not true. They needed the power of flooding, which scoured landscapes and stripped out competitors. Nor is it an accident, I think, that agriculture arose independently and simultaneously around the globe just as the last ice age ended, a time of enormous upheaval when glacial melt let loose sea-size lakes to create tidal waves of erosion. It was a time of catastrophe.

Tyler Cowen says, “Most of the article is terrible.” The anti-human, anti-farming bias is pretty sophomoric:

Corn, rice, and wheat are especially adapted to catastrophe. It is their niche. In the natural scheme of things, a catastrophe would create a blank slate, bare soil, that was good for them. Then, under normal circumstances, succession would quickly close that niche. The annuals would colonize. Their roots would stabilize the soil, accumulate organic matter, provide cover. Eventually the catastrophic niche would close. Farming is the process of ripping that niche open again and again. It is an annual artificial catastrophe, and it requires the equivalent of three or four tons of TNT per acre for a modern American farm. Iowa’?s fields require the energy of 4,000 Nagasaki bombs every year.

Here is Manning’s primary point, where the title of the piece comes from:

Ever since we ran out of arable land, food is oil. Every single calorie we eat is backed by at least a calorie of oil, more like ten. In 1940 the average farm in the United States produced 2.3 calories of food energy for every calorie of fossil energy it used. By 1974 (the last year in which anyone looked closely at this issue), that ratio was 1:1.

Manning argues that modern Green Revolution farming techniques are not sustainable, because oil energy won’t be cheap and plentiful forever.

The Era of Hostage States

Saturday, July 22nd, 2006

Arnold Kling opens The Era of Hostage States with this passage from YNET news:

The [Israeli Military] has found that Hizbullah is preventing civilians from leaving villages in southern Lebanon. Roadblocks have been set up outside some of the villages to prevent residents from leaving, while in other villages Hizbullah is preventing UN representatives from entering, who are trying to help residents leave. In two villages, exchanges of fire between residents and Hizbullah have broken out.

As he points out, “civilians often are used as human shields,” and “if Hezbollah were to follow the Geneva Convention, and differentiate its military operators from civilians,” its military operators would go up in a puff of smoke. It’s only Israeli restraint that keeps Hezbullah in the game.

Of course, we have to ask, are the Lebonese people innocent victims?

It is safe to assume that most Lebanese do not like what is happening to their country now. But up until recently, the Lebanese government seemed to have no objection to Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal and control over territory. Based on the actions of their elected government, one might infer that the Lebanese people were quite willing to tolerate a heavily armed, radical independent militia in their country.

Strong Opinions, Weakly Held

Saturday, July 22nd, 2006

Bob Sutton argues that the key to wisdom is Strong Opinions, Weakly Held:

Perhaps the best description I’ve ever seen of how wise people act comes from the amazing folks at Palo Alto’s Institute for the Future. A couple years ago, I was talking the Institute’s Bob Johansen about wisdom, and he explained that — to deal with an uncertain future and still move forward — they advise people to have “strong opinions, which are weakly held.” They’ve been giving this advice for years, and I understand that it was first developed by Instituite Director Paul Saffo. Bob explained that weak opinions are problematic because people aren’t inspired to develop the best arguments possible for them, or to put forth the energy required to test them. Bob explained that it was just as important, however, to not be too attached to what you believe because, otherwise, it undermines your ability to “see” and “hear” evidence that clashes with your opinions. This is what psychologists sometimes call the problem of “confirmation bias.”