China, India Superpower? Not so Fast!

Friday, October 28th, 2005

From China, India Superpower? Not so Fast!:

Both China and India are still desperately poor countries. Of the total of 2.3 billion people in these two countries, nearly 1.5 billion earn less than US$2 a day, according to World Bank calculations.

[...]

The total number of workers in all possible forms of IT-related jobs in India comes to less than a million workers – one-quarter of one percent of the Indian labor force. For all its Nobel Prizes and brilliant scholars and professionals, India is the largest single-country contributor to the pool of illiterate people in the world. Lifting them out of poverty and dead-end menial jobs will remain a Herculean task for decades to come.

Economic growth strong

Friday, October 28th, 2005

It looks like the doomsayers were wrong. From Economic growth strong:

The U.S. economy shook off headwinds from hurricanes Katrina and Rita to grow at a faster-than-expected 3.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, a

Commerce Department report showed on Friday.

Sting Operation Targets Terror

Thursday, October 27th, 2005

Sting Operation Targets Terror explains how wasps can be trained to detect explosives — or just about anything else:
[...]

Unlike dogs and electronic sensors currently in use, the wasps are disposable. They cost pennies and take minutes to train.

[...]

They’ve built the Wasp Hound — a $60 odor-detection device made of a small PVC tube containing five wasps.

The Wasp Hound has a fan in the top, which draws odors into the tube through a filter. If the wasps catch a whiff of whatever they’ve been trained to smell, they crowd around a hole in the filter. A web cam inside the tube is attached to a computer, which alerts the operator to the wasps’ reaction with a beep or flashing light.

The wasps have been trained to detect a range of illegal or dangerous substances, including 2,4-DNT (a chemical in TNT); putricine, which is associated with decaying flesh; and molds that produce poisonous compounds called aflatoxins in foods like peanuts and milk.

[...]

Research showed the wasps could be trained to detect other smells. All it involves, Lewis said, is feeding them sugar water while introducing them to a target smell for 10 seconds. Give them a 30-second break, repeat the process twice more, and voilà — trained insects. In this way, each insect can be trained to track a single scent.

The Meaning of Beheading

Wednesday, October 26th, 2005

Theodore Dalrymple explains The Meaning of Beheading:

In the days when murderers in Britain could still be executed by hanging, the Home Office used to receive five unsolicited applications a week for the position of hangman (not even the most rigidly doctrinal feminist has ever demanded that we use the word hangperson). The desire to kill one’s fellow beings in the pursuit of a good cause, in this case the preservation of law and order and the prevention of murder, is therefore quite widespread, even under the most civilized conditions.

There is no doubt that a good execution has its attractions. Once when I arrived in the northern Nigerian city of Maiduguri, I found it deserted, a ghost city: Everyone was away at the public executions. The television report later that day said that the crowd was very nearly disappointed, because the execution ground had been waterlogged, but fortunately — at least for the spectators — a dry area was found into which the stakes could be driven so that the criminals could be shot after all.

Doctor Johnson thought that, if one of the purposes of an execution was to deter, it should be held in public. Certainly public executions were very popular, and in the past everyone loved a good one: When Dr. William Palmer, for example — the Prince of Poisoners — was hanged at Stafford Gaol in 1856, the number of spectators exceeded the population of the town by three times. (Palmer was in advance of his time as far as the precautionary principle was concerned. Approaching the somewhat rickety and ramshackle scaffold with the hangman, he turned to him and asked, “Is it safe?”)

Charles I was beheaded with an axe: Such a death was considered nobler and more dignified than mere hanging, a form of execution unbecoming for the upper classes. Beheading remained the prerogative of the well-born in Europe until Dr. Guillotin, in the name of humanity, proposed his democratic beheading machine after the Convention decreed in 1792 that all executions henceforth should be by decapitation; the machine swiftly proved popular with the crowds and was last used in public in France in 1939. There was once a considerable and learned medical debate in France not only about the most humane method of severing the head from the body, but about whether consciousness survived beheading, the lips and eyes of the beheaded having sometimes been seen in the basket to move for some seconds after separation from the neck.

Since then, our sensibility in the matter of decapitation has changed greatly. During the war the Japanese beheaded many of their prisoners, not as a tribute to their nobility, but as an expression of complete contempt for them. This provoked our revulsion. Beheading of any kind henceforth seemed to us barbaric and primitive. One might have moral qualms about the hygienically sound, quasi-medical, almost euphemistic executions by injection that take place in chambers bearing a too-close resemblance to operating rooms, but no one would propose beheading as an alternative.

Except, of course, in the Islamic world.

The Oracle That Is Delphi

Wednesday, October 26th, 2005

GM’s auto parts spin off, Delphi Corp., is declaring bankruptcy, and pundits are using that to call for protectionism and other policy changes. In The Oracle That Is Delphi, Duane D. Freese argues that neither protectionism nor nationalized health care will work and explains the policy history underlying employer-provided pensions and health care:

The worst thing that happened to manufacturing in this country may have been when government decided to exempt its provision of pensions and health insurance from taxation.

The Revenue Act of 1913, implementing income taxation after the passage of the 16th Amendment allowing it, exempted pension trusts from taxation, encouraging the development of such plans over personal saving and investment. Then in World War II, FDR’s wage and price board allowed employers to get around the controls put in place for the war by allowing exceptions for both pension trusts and health insurance. [...] And the connection between employment and health insurance was cemented by the Internal Revenue Service in 1954, when it stipulated that employer contributions to health insurance plans for their employees were to be excluded from employee taxable income.

The result of these tax favors was to boost benefits’ share of costs from 20% of compensation to more than 40%. And while it relieved workers and retirees of worrying about their retirement income and their health care needs, it also stopped them thinking hard about it as well — an oversight that contributes to a low national savings rate and skyrocketing health care costs.

Cite “Freakonomics,” Get Kicked Out of Class

Wednesday, October 26th, 2005

Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics received this letter, reproduced in Cite “Freakonomics,” Get Kicked Out of Class:

Dr. Levitt:

I was asked to leave a college classroom because of you.

I’m a college student and currently taking Criminology. Among the subjects we’re currently studying are Victimization. The professor uses a powerpoint presentation as an aid. We requested the powerpoint because he talked so fast and often gave statistics hard to believe. Now he shows us well documented charts, statistical numbers, and papers from different authors.

I noted he quoted some ideals from “The Changing Relationship Between Income and Crime Victimization” (specifically how poor people are now more likely to be assaulted or robbed). He specifically named Levitt as the author. Having read “Freakonomics”, I picked up on the name and readily agreed with the idea.

Later the professor asked the question: “Why did crime fall in the 1990’s?” Answers were typical: good economy, more police, etc. I offered a different view with the Roe v Wade approach. The professor immediately accused me of being all sorts of nasty things. I assured him my opinion was not loosely based, but rather well documented. He stuck back that no one in their right mind could possible prove that case had any effect on crime in the 90’s. I answered back that one of the authors previously discussed in that very day’s discussion wrote the paper and a few follow-ups and also co-authored a book containing that assertion. The professor was so upset at losing ground in the argument that I was asked to leave the room.

Apparently college professors are the ultimate authority on classroom information but not necessarily on the subject’s actual facts.

Thanks for getting me kicked out the room! I enjoyed every minute of it!

Ben Bernanke

Tuesday, October 25th, 2005

I don’t have anything insightful to say about Ben Bernanke, Greenspan’s successor, but Bryan Caplan, Arnold Kling, and Tyler Cowen (also here) certainly do.

God save the heretic

Tuesday, October 25th, 2005

Christopher Hart presents his argument against the proposed Racial and Religious Hatred Bill, before the Lords this week, in God save the heretic:

Jonathan Swift observed that the problem with religion was that there wasn’t enough of it around: “We have just enough religion to make us hate, but not enough to make us love one another.” Three centuries on there is even less of it around and we still hate each other.

The difficulty, at least for the scientifically educated but spiritually malnourished, is not the idea of religion itself, meaning some system of ritualised worship that helps us to make sense, if only symbolically, of the human, natural and supernatural worlds. The difficulty is rather that all the religions on offer are so patently preposterous, if not downright unpleasant.

Judaism tells us in its most sacred text, the Torah, that a donkey once turned round and started an argument with its master (Numbers, chapter 22); and that the supreme creator took time out to instruct his chosen people not to carry dead badgers, pelicans, hoopoes or bats (Leviticus, chapter 11).

Christianity, while accepting these texts as sacred, further believes that God manifested himself on earth in the form of an excitable and frequently ill-tempered 1st-century Jewish rabbi called Joshua (“Jesus” in Greek) who disowned his family and believed that the world was soon going to end. How do we know Jesus was Jewish? Because he lived at home until he was 30 and his mother thought he was God.

Then there is Islam. Its followers believe that its sacred text, the Koran, is the word of Allah as dictated to his prophet Muhammad. Non-Muslims might regard Muhammad as a deluded and bellicose man who had far too many wives than was good for him. His private life as recorded in the Koran itself, for instance sura 66, is also rather surprising.

Buddhism is an increasingly popular choice for westerners these days with its distinctive mix of cowardice, escapism and self-absorption. Hinduism has always been the colourful and vibrant national religion of India, although under the guidance of that wicked imperialist power, the British raj, it did at last begin to accept that burning women alive on their husbands’ funeral pyres might not be such a good idea.

Shintoism, the national religion of Japan, venerated the emperor as a living god, at least until 1946 when Hirohito, under gentle pressure from the US army, admitted on the radio that he wasn’t really.

The emperor Vespasian’s last sardonic words, as he lay awaiting death and the posthumous deification bestowed on the Caesars, best put this religious belief into perspective: “I think I’m turning into a god.”

Some like to believe that primitive tribal religions were much nicer. Unfortunately many of them practised human sacrifice. When the British (wicked imperialist power, etc) captured the Ashanti capital of Kumasi in present-day Ghana, they found a grove of death where the ground was saturated with the blood of thousands of human victims.

This confirms one’s sense that whatever the truth about God, all religions without exception are fallible human creations, in parts beautiful and profound and in parts ridiculous and repellent. To protect them from criticism is bad for our society and, even more importantly, bad for our souls.

Power and Persuasion

Tuesday, October 25th, 2005

Frederick W. Kagan opens Power and Persuasion with this quote from diplomat-historian George F. Kennan:

You have no idea how much it contributes to the general politeness and pleasantness of diplomacy when you have a little quiet armed force in the background.

Kagan explains why Napolean failed and Bismarck succeeded:

Diplomacy is not simply the art of persuading others to accept a set of demands. It is the art of discerning objectives the world will accept — and the restraints on one’s own power that one must accept in turn. Peace can endure after conflict only if all the major players find it preferable to another war.

Surveillance Supremacy

Monday, October 24th, 2005

In Surveillance Supremacy, Arnold Kling explains why we need command of the spies:

In the twenty years between the two World Wars, there was a paradigm shift involving air power. Air combat, which was a sideshow during the first World War, was decisive during the second. The most important naval engagements — Pearl Harbor, Midway, Coral Sea — were decided by aircraft. The Battle of Britain was famously a duel in the air. During the Second World War, no country could attempt a major ground attack in the face of an enemy’s air superiority. (The Germans launched the Battle of the Bulge under cover of un-flyable weather, which according to legend caused General George Patton to ask for divine relief.)

From 1940 on, the air was viewed as a decisive theater of war. Military men spoke of ‘air superiority,’ ‘air supremacy,’ or ‘command of the skies.’

The cheapening of material goods is leading to another paradigm shift in military affairs. It is becoming less and less costly to assemble and deliver weapons that can cause mass casualties and major economic loss. It is becoming commensurately more valuable to be able to figure out who the bad guys are and keep track of what they are up to. What we need in the information age is surveillance supremacy — command of the spies, if you will.

Could a human swing through the jungle on vines?

Monday, October 24th, 2005

The Straight Dope answers the question, Could a human swing through the jungle on vines?:

As depicted in the Tarzan movies, the vines are attached at the top, free-swinging at the bottom. In reality, lianas are attached at the bottom (they’re plants, with roots in the ground) and … well, maybe not free-swinging, but not reliably anchored at the top. Yank on a liana and one of two things is going to happen: nothing, because the top is entwined in the tree canopy, in which case, being secured at both ends, the thing won’t let you do much swinging — at best you’ll be able to sway back and forth; or it falls on top of you in a heap.

Tarzan’s creator didn’t create the vine-swinging myth though:

Don’t blame Edgar Rice Burroughs for steering the public wrong, though. Here’s his description of how a young Tarzan gets around from the first book, Tarzan of the Apes (1914):
He could spring twenty feet across space at the dizzy heights of the forest top, and grasp with unerring precision, and without apparent jar, a limb waving wildly in the path of an approaching tornado. He could drop twenty feet at a stretch from limb to limb in rapid descent to the ground, or he could gain the utmost pinnacle of the loftiest tropical giant with the ease and swiftness of a squirrel. Though but ten years old, he was fully as strong as the average man of thirty…. And day by day his strength was increasing.

In short, Tarzan propels himself the same way most arboreal primates do, by swinging, climbing, and leaping among the branches. Vines play no special role in this process.

(Hat tip to GeekPress.)

The Antikythera Mechanism

Friday, October 21st, 2005

The clockwork computer describes the Antikythera mechanism:

When a Greek sponge diver called Elias Stadiatos discovered the wreck of a cargo ship off the tiny island of Antikythera in 1900, it was the statues lying on the seabed that made the greatest impression on him. He returned to the surface, removed his helmet, and gabbled that he had found a heap of dead, naked women. The ship’s cargo of luxury goods also included jewellery, pottery, fine furniture, wine and bronzes dating back to the first century BC. But the most important finds proved to be a few green, corroded lumps — the last remnants of an elaborate mechanical device.

The Antikythera mechanism, as it is now known, was originally housed in a wooden box about the size of a shoebox, with dials on the outside and a complex assembly of bronze gear wheels within. X-ray photographs of the fragments, in which around 30 separate gears can be distinguished, led the late Derek Price, a science historian at Yale University, to conclude that the device was an astronomical computer capable of predicting the positions of the sun and moon in the zodiac on any given date. A new analysis, though, suggests that the device was cleverer than Price thought, and reinforces the evidence for his theory of an ancient Greek tradition of complex mechanical technology.

The 100 Best English-Language Novels from 1923 to the Present

Friday, October 21st, 2005

It would appear that I’ve read few of Time magazine’s top 100 Novels from 1923 to the present — and many of those I read were either high school reading assignments or genre fiction.

That said, Catch-22 and The Catcher in the Rye were never assigned to me in school — and I’m glad, because I hated them both.

Incidentally, if you look at the Readers’ Choice list, I’ve read most of the top 20:

  1. 1984
  2. The Lord of the Rings
  3. The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe
  4. Watchmen
  5. To Kill a Mockingbird
  6. Things Fall Apart
  7. The Great Gatsby
  8. The Catcher in the Rye
  9. Snow Crash
  10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
  11. Lolita
  12. Catch-22
  13. Ubik
  14. A Clockwork Orange
  15. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
  16. Animal Farm
  17. Lord of the Flies
  18. Slaughterhouse-Five
  19. Beloved
  20. The Grapes of Wrath
  21. Atonement

America: Lost in Translation

Friday, October 21st, 2005

In America: Lost in Translation, Richard Pells describes his experience as a Fulbright senior specialist in Indonesia:

The breakdown in communication, however, did not result simply from the struggle many Asians have in pronouncing certain English words. In the ‘discussions’ that followed my lectures (which frequently took the form of someone delivering a 10-minute speech before arriving at a question), and in the conversations I had with individual students and faculty members, I found myself repeatedly saying, ‘I don’t understand what you mean.’ That was true even when their comments or queries were translated into recognizable English. The problem was not one of language, but of context. What I didn’t grasp, at least not for a while, were the political and cultural assumptions behind the questions Indonesians were posing.

My dialogue with Indonesians often became surreal. ‘Is there grass in Texas?’ I was regularly asked of my home state. Obviously Indonesians — having seen far too many old Westerns — supposed that Texas, with some of the most heavily populated urban areas in America, was a veritable wasteland of sagebrush and dust. Indonesians also seemed obsessed with the prevalence of what they called ‘free sex’ in America. Someone finally explained to me that they meant the tendency of Americans to engage in sex before marriage or after divorce — whereas in Indonesia such activity is forbidden, in theory if not in practice. And since many Indonesians in my audiences had seen Michael Moore’s Bowling for Columbine, they were convinced that students in American high schools were heavily armed, just waiting for the opportunity to open fire.

But it was their questions about Moore himself that left me truly befuddled. I was asked continually if the Bush administration had subsidized Moore’s movies, including Fahrenheit 9/11. Eventually I realized that such a question revealed an entirely different set of ideas about the relationship between government and culture. Since Indonesians believed that movies, plays, and novels could scarcely exist without the political and financial support of the state, it was hard for them to imagine the existence of a ‘private’ sector in the arts, or the absence of an American ministry of culture.

Nazism, racism, glory, in the fists of two men

Friday, October 21st, 2005

From Nazism, racism, glory, in the fists of two men:

On June 22, 1938, America and Europe were more caught up in a sporting event than they had ever been before or were ever likely to be again. The heavyweight champion, Joe Louis, a black sharecropper’s son from rural Alabama, was fighting a rematch with former champion Max Schmeling, the man chosen by the Nazi party to carry the banner of Aryan supremacy. The world, or at least that portion of it ready to plunge into war, held its collective breath.

The triumph of the racehorse Seabiscuit has been touted by revisionists as the most inspiring sporting event of Depression-era America, but as David Margolick points out in his epic retelling of the Louis-Schmeling saga, ‘Beyond Glory,’ on the night the two men stepped into the ring at Yankee Stadium there were more people listening — perhaps 20 million more — than tuned in later that year to follow Seabiscuit in his famous race with War Admiral. Perhaps half the population of the United States heard the fight, more than would hear any of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s fireside chats. Someone estimated that more journalists covered the fight than had been present at Versailles to cover the end of World War I.