The Depressive and the Psychopath

Thursday, April 22nd, 2004

The Depressive and the Psychopath – At last we know why the Columbine killers did it, by Dave Cullen, doesn’t really explain why they did it, but it does shed some light on their plan (which went awry):

The killers, in fact, laughed at petty school shooters. They bragged about dwarfing the carnage of the Oklahoma City bombing and originally scheduled their bloody performance for its anniversary. Klebold boasted on video about inflicting “the most deaths in U.S. history.” Columbine was intended not primarily as a shooting at all, but as a bombing on a massive scale. If they hadn’t been so bad at wiring the timers, the propane bombs they set in the cafeteria would have wiped out 600 people. After those bombs went off, they planned to gun down fleeing survivors. An explosive third act would follow, when their cars, packed with still more bombs, would rip through still more crowds, presumably of survivors, rescue workers, and reporters. The climax would be captured on live television. It wasn’t just “fame” they were after — Agent Fuselier bristles at that trivializing term — they were gunning for devastating infamy on the historical scale of an Attila the Hun. Their vision was to create a nightmare so devastating and apocalyptic that the entire world would shudder at their power.

By labeling Harris a psychopath, Cullen claims to explain his actions. I explain his behavior by labeling him a mass-murderer.

Liberals, Conservatives, and Southerners

Thursday, April 22nd, 2004

Normally I don’t particularly enjoy political humor — especially the kind that gets circulated around the Net, but, for some reason, I got a good chuckle out of Liberals, Conservatives, and Southerners:

Question: How do you tell the difference between liberals, conservatives, and southerners?
Try this. Pose the following question: You’re walking down a deserted street with your wife and two small children. Suddenly, a dangerous looking man with a huge knife comes around the corner, locks eyes with you, screams obscenities, raises the knife, and charges. You are carrying a Glock .40, and you are an expert shot. You have mere seconds before he reaches you and your family. What do you do?

Liberal Answer:
Well, that’s not enough information to answer the question!
Does the man look poor or oppressed?
Have I ever done anything to him that would inspire him to attack?
Could we run away?
What does my wife think?
What about the kids?
Could I possibly swing the gun like a club and knock the knife out of his hand?
What does the law say about this situation?
Does the Glock have appropriate safety built into it?
Why am I carrying a loaded gun anyway, and what kind of message does this send to society and to my children?
Is it possible he’d be happy with just killing me?
Does he definitely want to kill me, or would he be content just to wound me?
If I were to grab his knees and hold on, could my family get away while he was stabbing me?
Should I call 9-1-1?
Why is this street so deserted?
We need to raise taxes, have a paint and weed day and make this a happier, healthier street that would discourage such behavior.
This is all so confusing! I need to debate this with some friends for a few days and try to come to a consensus.

Conservative Answer:
BANG!

Southerner Answer:
BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG!
click….(sounds of reloading).
BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG! BANG!
click.
Daughter: “Nice grouping, Daddy! Were those the Winchester Silver Tips?”

Antiques Trade Gazette

Thursday, April 22nd, 2004

The Antiques Trade Gazette warns dealers “to check their vehicles before leaving showground fairs following a sophisticated robbery attempt at Sunbury Antiques Market”:

A gang struck at the popular Kempton Park Racecourse fair on Tuesday, April 13, first piercing the car tyre of a jewellery dealer and then accosting him during an unscheduled stop at a nearby petrol station. In this case the thieves had picked on the wrong man — the 67-year-old Hertfordshire man was a former fencing and boxing champion who tackled one of the thieves. The gang of four fled emptyhanded.

I love stories like that.

Some more details:

“I am sure I saw one of the gang at the fair,” he said. “Clearly they were selecting their target, and I don’t suppose I will be the only one.

“Obviously it was planned,” he added. “They must have punctured my tyre so I would break down on the road. Suddenly [while at the petrol station] this car pulled up and a young man got out and grabbed the air hose before I got to it,” said the dealer. “I told him there was a queue, but then one of his friends tried to distract me by asking the way to London. The next thing I knew, one of them had opened the car door and was running off with my bag. I rugby tackled him and he dropped it and they drove off. They even seemed to know just which bag to grab — the one with the small items of jewellery in, not the more bulky stock.”

Englands demographics have changed:

The men are all described as short, slightly built and of Latin American appearance with Spanish accents. Two are in their early 20s, one in his late 40s and one in his early 50s.

(Hat tip to Cronaca.)

Cox & Forkum Editorial Cartoons

Thursday, April 22nd, 2004

On behalf of Earth Day, I thought I’d share this Cox & Forkum Editorial Cartoon:

…and if you don’t recycle, Suzie, the earth will heat up, the oceans will explode, and boiling rain will scald all the baby animals… Any questions?

That pretty much matches my elementary school education in California — only the emphasis was on water conservation.

Studios Rush to Cash In on DVD Boom

Thursday, April 22nd, 2004

As Studios Rush to Cash In on DVD Boom reports, Americans spend more on DVDs than they spend at the box office:

Between January and mid-March this year, Americans spent $1.78 billion at the box office. But in the same period they spent $4.8 billion — more than $3 billion more — to buy and rent DVD’s and videocassettes.

Thus, studios spend as much marketing DVDs as theatrical releases:

Studios now spend comparable amounts of money on DVD and theatrical marketing campaigns. Disney spent an estimated $50 million marketing the “Finding Nemo” DVD last year, said officials at Pixar, which made the film. It was money well spent. The DVD took in $431 million domestically, about $100 million more than the domestic box office.

Rarely does a movie recoup its costs at the box office — the theatrical run is now an ad for the DVD:

The average movie now costs $64 million to make and another $39 million to market, according to the Motion Picture Association of America.

“In the last five years maybe 6 pictures out of 1,000 recouped their cost in the theatrical marketplace,” said Nick Counter, president of the studio alliance. “Today the hits have to make up for all the losses.”

For bigger-budget movies the DVD revenue has become critical. Nowadays, “basically the movies are commercials for the DVD’s,” observed John Lesher, an agent for the Endeavor talent agency who represents leading directors like Walter Salles, Paul Thomas Anderson and David O. Russell. Movies with budgets over $100 million now commonly just break even at the box office.

The financial rules have changed — and Office Space shows how:

The old Hollywood model of needing to recoup three times the production cost at the box office to make a profit is long gone. But many are asking: What is the new model?

The answer to that may lie with a little-known movie called “Office Space” (1999). The satire by Mike Judge, co-creator of the animated television series “King of the Hill,” cost 20th Century Fox about $10 million to make, and took in just $10 million at the box office. But on DVD the movie has become a hit, with the studio so far selling 2.5 million units, well over $40 million worth.

There are other examples of surprising windfalls. The Lion’s Gate comedy “Van Wilder” was renamed “National Lampoon’s Van Wilder” and has unexpectedly become a hit on DVD, where it sits alphabetically next to other National Lampoon movies.

A moderate hit like the DreamWorks comedy “Old School” starring Will Ferrell took in $73 million at the box office, but made an astounding $143.5 million on DVD.

(Hat tip to Marginal Revolution.)

Financier Bets Big On Risky Venture: Family Values

Thursday, April 22nd, 2004

“Some people know Philip Anschutz, co-founder of Qwest Communications International Inc., as a hard-charging financier who has amassed a $5 billion fortune in oil, railroads and telecommunications,” but as Financier Bets Big On Risky Venture: Family Values explains, Anschutz has moved into family films:

In the last few years, he has stormed into Hollywood, bankrolling nearly a dozen projects at once. These films are meant to be uplifting and family-friendly, earning G and PG ratings, even as movie theaters are packed with darker, R-rated fare. The 64-year-old Mr. Anschutz has committed more than $300 million to film projects already. It’s unlikely he will break even on many of them. But he shows no signs of stopping.

Disney picked up his latest film after Paramount refused to distribute it:

He has financed a $110 million remake of the 1956 movie “Around the World in 80 Days,” which he enjoyed as a youth growing up in central Kansas. [...] The movie may benefit from a lucky casting decision: Arnold Schwarzenegger has a cameo role as a Turkish prince, filmed shortly before he began his successful campaign to become California governor.

This should surprise no one:

Succeeding in the family-film market is tricky, especially for a newcomer. Just this week, Mr. Anschutz announced he was dismantling one of his two production companies, Crusader Entertainment. He had created the company in 2000 to make films free of violence, sex, drugs, tobacco and profanity, but few of its films made money.

Does he know who Hunter S. Thompson is?

On a wall in his Denver headquarters is a plaque, with a quote from writer Hunter S. Thompson, calling the film business “a cruel and shallow money trench, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free, and good men die like dogs. There is also a negative side.”

You’ve heard the pitch: It’s Lord of the Rings meets Passion of the Christ — with talking animals!

He and Disney have paired up to develop C.S. Lewis’s Narnia books into a series of movies, starting with a $150 million version of “The Lion, The Witch & the Wardrobe” for Christmas 2005.

Does he know who Truman Capote was?

For most of its 3? years in business, Crusader struggled to find its way. At one point, the company spent $8 million to film “Children on Their Birthdays,” a Truman Capote short story with so little public appeal that the finished movie rang up only $54,000 in ticket sales before disappearing from first-run distribution.

Does he know who Ayn Rand was?

For a brief time, Messrs. Anschutz and Baldwin were excited about the prospect of filming Ayn Rand’s epic novel “Atlas Shrugged.” They snapped up the movie rights for more than $200,000 in 2003, only to discover that the 1,075-page book’s sprawling nature, long speeches and many subplots made it an extremely problematic film project. Anschutz insiders say it’s an open question whether they will press on.

Work & Family

Thursday, April 22nd, 2004

Work & Family comments on the heavily quoted 50% divorce rate:

The belief that one out of every two American marriages ends in divorce is widespread. But the heavily quoted 50% figure is actually an informed guess based on sociologists’ projections of how many marriages are likely to end in divorce or separation before one of the spouses dies. Like any broad measure, that number can be misleading when applied to individual couples.

The divorce rate varies widely based on your age at marriage, income, education, length of marriage, race and other factors. And some studies even suggest the lifetime probability of divorce may be declining — particularly among certain groups. As a result, divorce can be an isolating, stigmatizing experience for many people.

As a college-educated, church-going suburb-dweller, Mr. Teusink inhabited a group with a relatively low probability of divorce. Couples from central cities are nine percentage points more likely to crash and burn than couples from the suburbs, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Regional differences also factor in: Couples who live in the South are 10 points more likely to divorce or separate than couples from the Northeast or Midwest. (Western couples fall about midway between the two.)

Some stats from the article:

Risk Factors
Divorce rates can vary significantly. Here are the percentage-point increases in the probability of divorce or separation during the first 10 years of marriage, depending on a variety of factors:

Annual income under $25,000 vs. over $50,000 +30
Having a baby before marriage vs. seven months or more afterward +24
Marrying under 18 years of age vs. 25 or over +24
Own parents divorced, vs. intact family of origin +14
No religious affiliation +14
High-school dropout vs. some college +13
Central-city vs. suburb dweller  +9

Source: National Center for Health Statistics

Pleasing Decay

Wednesday, April 21st, 2004

This passage from Pleasing Decay makes me feel queasy:

The Turks who lived in Athens contentedly built their hovels on and out of the remains of the Acropolis, just as they burned marble sculptures and columns for lime without a second thought.

Against All Odds

Wednesday, April 21st, 2004

Against All Odds tells the story of “the first sustained mass campaign anywhere on behalf of someone else’s rights”:

To fully grasp how momentous was what began at 2 George Yard, picture the world as it existed in 1787. Well over three-quarters of the people on earth are in bondage of one land or another. In parts of the Americas, slaves far outnumber free people. African slaves are also scattered widely through much of the Islamic world. Slavery is routine in most of Africa itself. In India and other parts of Asia, some people are outright slaves, others in debt bondage that ties them to a particular landlord as harshly as any slave to a Southern plantation owner. In Russia the majority of the population are serfs. Nowhere is slavery more firmly rooted than in Britain’s overseas empire, where some half-million slaves are being systematically worked to an early death growing West Indian sugar. Caribbean slave-plantation fortunes underlie many a powerful dynasty, from the ancestors of Elizabeth Barrett Browning to the family of the fabulously wealthy William Beckford, lord mayor of London, who hired Mozart to give his son piano lessons. One of the most prosperous sugar plantations on Barbados is owned by the Church of England. Furthermore, Britain’s ships dominate the slave trade, delivering tens of thousands of chained captives each year to French, Dutch, Spanish, and Portuguese colonies as well as to its own.

If you had proposed, in the London of early 1787, to change all of this, nine out of ten people would have laughed you off as a crackpot. [...] By the end of the 19th century, slavery was, at least on paper, outlawed almost everywhere. Every American schoolchild learns about the Underground Railroad and the Emancipation Proclamation. But our self-centered textbooks often skip over the fact that in the superpower of the time slavery ended a full quarter-century earlier. For more than two decades before the Civil War, the holiday celebrated most fervently by free blacks in the American North was not July 4 (when they were at risk of attack from drunken white mobs) but August 1, Emancipation Day in the British Empire.

The Wrong Stuff

Wednesday, April 21st, 2004

The Wrong Stuff asks the decades-old question, why do we send humans into space, when it’s cheaper and easier to just send machines? I enjoyed this calculation:

It had been hoped that the shuttle, because reusable, would reduce the cost of putting satellites in orbit. Instead, while it costs about $3,000 a pound to use unmanned rockets to put satellites in orbit, the cost of doing this with the shuttle is about $10,000 a pound. The physicist Robert Park has pointed out that at this rate, even if lead could be turned into gold in orbit, it would not pay to send it up on the shuttle.

Unhappy Birthday

Wednesday, April 21st, 2004

Last month marked the 100th anniversary of Dr. Seuss’s birth. Unhappy Birthday addresses the shift from Seuss the author to Seuss the brand:

A.J. Rowling famously negotiated ironclad agreements with Warner Bros. to make sure that her Harry Potter books made it to the screen in the right way. (What you saw was what you read.) The stewards of Beatrix Potter have kept a watchful eye, too, permitting animated versions of her stories that hew to the letter and spirit of her work.

The legacies of A.A. Milne and Rudyard Kipling have not been so lucky, however. Their literary greatness is unrecognizable in Disney’s adaptations of “Winnie the Pooh” and “The Jungle Book.” More grotesquely, Dr. Seuss, in movie form, has suffered the same fate. Hollywood cashed in as Mr. Carrey and Mr. Myers mugged and romped, earning each film about $250 million. (With its imminent video release, “Cat” is set to earn more.) But such success nearly wrecked the brand.

You Can’t Say That

Wednesday, April 21st, 2004

In You Can’t Say That , Diane Ravitch discusses The Language Police:

In my book ‘The Language Police,’ I gathered a list of more than 500 words that are routinely deleted from textbooks and tests by ‘bias review committees’ employed by publishing companies, state education departments and the federal government. Among the forbidden words are ‘landlord,’ ‘cowboy,’ ‘brotherhood,’ ‘yacht,’ ‘cult’ and ‘primitive.’ Such words are deleted because they are offensive to various groups — feminists, religious conservatives, multiculturalists and ethnic activists, to name a few.
[...]
Editors must delete, the guidelines said, pictures of women with big hair or sleeveless blouses and men with dreadlocks or medallions. Photographs must not portray the soles of shoes or anyone eating with the left hand (both in deference to Muslim culture). To avoid giving offense to those who cannot afford a home computer, no one may be shown owning a home computer. To avoid offending those with strong but differing religious views, decorations for religious holidays must never appear in the background.

This one can’t be real, can it?

A college professor informed me that a new textbook in human development includes the following statement: “As a folksinger once sang, how many roads must an individual walk down before you can call them an adult.” The professor was stupefied that someone had made the line gender-neutral and ungrammatical by rewriting Bob Dylan’s folk song “Blowin’ in the Wind,” which had simply asked: “How many roads must a man walk down before you call him a man?”

The Arab World’s Scientific Desert

Wednesday, April 21st, 2004

The Arab World’s Scientific Desert describes how the Muslim world once valued science:

Eleven centuries ago an Islamic renaissance occurred in Baghdad, attracting the best scholars throughout the Muslim world. For the next five hundred years, Arabic was the lingua franca of science. Cutting-edge research was conducted in cities such as Cairo, Damascus, and Tunis. In the ninth century, algebra (al-jabr) was invented by a Muslim mathematician in Baghdad under the auspices of an imperial Arab court dedicated to scientific enrichment and discovery. Ibn Sina’s monumental Canon of Medicine was translated into Latin in the 12th century and dominated the teaching of the subject in Europe for four centuries.

Things have obviously changed. This stat says quite a bit:

No more than 10,000 books were translated into Arabic over the entire past millennium, equivalent to the number translated into Spanish each year.

Rule of 72

Wednesday, April 21st, 2004

I recently stumbled across an explanation of the Rule of 72, and it struck me as exactly the kind of thing I should know (but didn’t):

In finance, the Rule of 72 is a simple method of calculating the approximate number of periods over which a quantity will double. If you divide 72 by the expected growth rate, expressed as a percentage, the answer is approximately the number of periods to double the original quantity. For instance, if you were to invest $100 at 9% per annum, then your investment would be worth $200 after 8.0432 years, using an exact calculation. The rule of 72 gives 72/9=8 years, which is close to the exact answer.

I knew one instance of the rule: 10% interest will double your money after 7 years.

Somalia and the theory of anarchy

Wednesday, April 21st, 2004

Somalia and the theory of anarchy explains how Somolia has “stabilized” with a number of competing “governments” keeping the peace:

Somalia continues to provide a unique test of the theory of anarchy (competitive governments) promoted by David Friedman, Murrary Rothbard and others. Somalia has no government but in many respects it is booming. Somalia has what is perhaps the best phone system in Africa, for example, because entrepreneurs are unburdened by any regulation.

From Coke and al-Qaeda:

There are two ways to run a business in Somalia. You can pay off the local warlord, not always the most trustworthy of chaps, and hope he will stop his militiamen from murdering your staff. Or you can tell him to get stuffed and hire your own militia. After 13 years of civil war, businessmen are increasingly plumping for the latter option, and their defiance has been rewarded. A veneer of normality is returning to the world’s most chaotic country. An economy, of sorts, is beginning to thrive.
[...]
Perversely, this renaissance has been made possible by Somalia’s continuing fragmentation. There is still no proper central government but, where once there was only a handful of warlords, there are now at least 24, and that is only the serious ones. With smaller fiefs to pillage, few can now afford the $100,000 or more that it costs to wage a six-hour battle, so such battles are less common. This is what passes for peace in Somalia, and it is enough to tempt many homesick exiles to return. They bring money as well as skills and contacts. In the past few years, hospitals, schools, businesses and even a university have appeared.

In some ways, anarchy makes doing business easier. There are no formal taxes — given how heavily-armed the average Somali is, these would be hard to collect — and no regulation whatsoever. But the costs of chaos outweigh the benefits. You can roar through a warlord’s road block unmolested if you have ten gunmen in the back of your pickup, but you have to pay your gunmen. Nationlink, one of the country’s three mobile-phone operators, employs 300 guards to protect 500 staff.