Monday, June 23, 2008

Overpopulation Doomsday vs. Cornucopian Singularity

Are we facing an Overpopulation Doomsday or a Cornucopian Singularity? Al Fin makes the distinction most people want to ignore — we aren't all in the same boat:
Who is right — doomers or Kurzweil? It depends upon where you live. If you live in a nation or region with a very low average population IQ, you are apt to see many examples of the activity pictured in the photo above — subsisting on castoff and detritus. Generations of philanthropists, NGOs, religious charities, government aid and assistance, etc. have been lavished upon countries such as Haiti only to see them sink into violence and deprivation time and again. Below a certain point, average IQ determines what a society's destiny will be.

Nations of high IQ, such as Japan, South Korea, China, and European countries, have the potential of creating cornucopian worlds in the near future, if the political classes are sufficiently constrained. North Korea, Mao's China, the late USSR, etc. are examples of high IQ societies that allowed despotic governments to lead them into widespread misery and shortages of food and comforts.
I don't think you need to agree with his largely genetic argument to recognize that the "developing" world is not developing at anywhere near the rate of the "developed" world.

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