South Africa’s Second Coming: The Nongqawuse Syndrome

Tuesday, June 27th, 2006

In South Africa’s Second Coming: The Nongqawuse Syndrome, Achille Mbembe explains that “a dozen years after apartheid ended, a dangerous mix of populism, nativism and millenarian thinking is inviting South Africans to commit political suicide” — in a manner reminiscent of the Xhosa cattle-killing of 1856-57:

By that time, the Xhosa had been involved in nearly a half century of bloody and protracted wars with colonial settlers on the eastern frontier of their homeland. As a result of the deliberate destruction of their means of livelihood, confiscation of their cattle and the implementation of a scorched-earth policy by British colonialists, they had lost a huge portion of their territory and hundreds of thousands of their people had been displaced. As lung-sickness spread across the land in 1854, a number of prophets proclaiming an ability to bring all cattle back to life began to re-emerge.

Then, a 16-year-old girl, Nongqawuse, had a vision on the banks of the Gxarha River. She saw the departed ancestors who told her that if people would but kill all their cattle, the dead would arise from the ashes and all the whites would be swept into the sea. The message was relayed to the Xhosa nation by her uncle, Mhalakaza. Although deeply divided over what to do, the Xhosa began killing their cattle in February 1856. They destroyed all their food and did not sow crops for the future. Stored grain was thrown away. No further work was to be done. Days passed and nights fell. The resurrection of the dead Xhosa warriors never took place.

In his book The Dead Will Arise: Nongqawuse and the Great Xhosa Cattle-Killing Movement of 1856-7, historian JB Peires contends that by May 1857, 400,000 cattle had been slaughtered and 40,000 Xhosa had died of starvation. At least another 40,000 had left their homes in search of food. According to Dr John Fitzgerald, founder of the Native Hospital who witnessed the events, one could see thousands of those “emaciated living skeletons passing from house to house” in places such as King Williams Town. Craving for food, they subsisted on nothing “but roots and the bark of the mimosa, the smell of which appeared to issue from every part of their body.”

As the whole land was surrounded by the smell of death, Xhosa independence and self-rule had effectively ended.

Hydrogen Atom Scale Model

Tuesday, June 27th, 2006

This Hydrogen Atom Scale Model may not be too practical, but it makes its point:

The page is scaled so that the smallest thing on it, the electron, is one pixel. That makes the proton, this big ball right next to us, a thousand pixels across, and the distance between them is… yep, fifty million pixels (not a hundred million, because we’re only showing the radius of the atom. ie: from the middle to the edge). If your monitor displays 72 pixels to the inch, then that works out to eleven miles — making this possibly the biggest page you’ve ever seen.

The Power of the Marginal

Tuesday, June 27th, 2006

I love the opening anecdote to Paul Graham’s The Power of the Marginal:

A couple years ago my friend Trevor and I went to look at the Apple garage. As we stood there, he said that as a kid growing up in Saskatchewan he’d been amazed at the dedication Jobs and Wozniak must have had to work in a garage. “Those guys must have been freezing!”

That’s one of California’s hidden advantages: the mild climate means there’s lots of marginal space. In cold places that margin gets trimmed off. There’s a sharper line between outside and inside, and only projects that are officially sanctioned — by organizations, or parents, or wives, or at least by oneself — get proper indoor space. That raises the activation energy for new ideas. You can’t just tinker. You have to justify.

Graham goes through a list of advantages to being an outsider rather than an insider. One “advantage” to being an outsider is that becoming an insider often involves an “anti-test” — “filtering out the people it should select by making them to do things only the wrong people would do”:

For example, rising up through the hierarchy of the average big company demands an attention to politics few thoughtful people could spare. Someone like Bill Gates can grow a company under him, but it’s hard to imagine him having the patience to climb the corporate ladder at General Electric — or Microsoft, actually.
[...]
I think that’s one reason big companies are so often blindsided by startups. People at big companies don’t realize the extent to which they live in an environment that is one large, ongoing test for the wrong qualities.

Read the whole essay.

World Cup Game Theory

Tuesday, June 27th, 2006

Tim Harford (The Undercover Economist) explains “what economics tells us about penalty kicks” in World Cup Game Theory:

In soccer, penalty kicks pit the goalkeeper against a lone striker in a mentally demanding contest. Once the penalty-taker strikes the ball, it takes 0.3 seconds to hit the back of the net — unless the goalkeeper can somehow get his body in the way. That is simply not enough time for the keeper to pick out the trajectory of the ball and intercept it. He must guess where the striker will shoot and move just as the ball is being struck. A keeper who does not guess correctly has no chance.

Both striker and keeper must make subtle decisions. Let’s say a right-footed striker always shoots to the right. The keeper will always anticipate the shot and the striker would be better off occasionally shooting to the left—because even with a weaker shot it is best to shoot where the goalie isn’t. In contrast, if the striker chooses a side by tossing a coin, the keeper will always dive to the striker’s left: Since he can’t guess where the ball will go, best to go where the shot will be weak if it does come. But then the striker should start favoring his stronger side again.
[...]
Game theory, applied to the problem of penalties, says that if the striker and the keeper are behaving optimally, neither will have a predictable strategy. The striker might favor his stronger side, of course, but that does not mean that there will be a pattern to the bias.

The striker might shoot to the right two times out of three, but we cannot then conclude that it will have to be to the left next time.

Game theory also says that each choice of shot should be equally likely to succeed, weighing up the advantage of shooting to the stronger side against the disadvantage of being too predictable. If shots to the right score three-quarters of the time and shots to the left score half the time, you should be shooting to the right more often. But as you do, the goalkeeper will respond: Shots to the right will become less successful and those to the left more successful.

It turns out that real players do — intuitively — understand this:

Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, an economist at Brown University, found that individual strikers and keepers were, in fact, master strategists. Out of 42 top players whom Palacios-Huerta studied, only three departed from game theory’s recommendations — in retrospect, they succeeded more often on one side than the other and would have been better altering the balance between their strategies. Professionals such as the French superstar Zinédine Zidane and Italy’s goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon are apparently superb economists: Their strategies are absolutely unpredictable, and, as the theory demands, they are equally successful no matter what they do, indicating that they have found the perfect balance among the different options. These geniuses do not just think with their feet.

Stealth Radar System Sees Through Trees, Walls — Undetected

Tuesday, June 27th, 2006

From Stealth Radar System Sees Through Trees, Walls — Undetected:

The radar scatters a very low-intensity signal across a wide range of frequencies, so a TV or radio tuned to any one frequency would interpret the radar signal as a very weak form of static.

“It doesn’t interfere because it has a bandwidth that is thousands of times broader than the signals it might otherwise interfere with,” Walton said.

Like traditional radar, the “noise” radar detects objects by bouncing a radio signal off them and detecting the rebound. The hardware isn’t expensive, either; altogether, the components cost less than $100.

The difference is that the noise radar generates a signal that resembles random noise, and a computer calculates very small differences in the return signal. The calculations happen billions of times every second, and the pattern of the signal changes constantly. A receiver couldn’t detect the signal unless it knew exactly what random pattern to look for.

The radar can be tuned to penetrate solid walls — just like the waves that transmit radio and TV signals — so the military could spot enemy soldiers inside a building without the radar signal being detected, Walton said. Traffic police could measure vehicle speed without setting off drivers’ radar detectors. Autonomous vehicles could tell whether a bush conceals a more dangerous obstacle, like a tree stump or a gulley.

American Coup D’Etat

Tuesday, June 27th, 2006

In American Coup D’Etat, “military thinkers discuss the unthinkable” — and all agree that it’s largely impossible:

LUTTWAK: You would sit in the office of the Secretary of Defense, and the first place where you wouldn’t be obeyed would be inside your office. If they did follow orders inside the office, then people in the rest of the Pentagon wouldn’t. If everybody in the Pentagon followed orders, people out in the military bases wouldn’t. If they did, as well, American citizens would still not accept your legitimacy.

RICHARD KOHN: It’s a problem of public opinion. All of the organs of opinion in this country would rise up with one voice: the courts, the media, business leaders, education leaders, the clergy.

Of course, the military doesn’t need to commit a coup:

BACEVICH: But this does bring up another crucial reason there could never be a military coup in the United States: the military has learned to play politics. It doesn’t need to have a coup in order to get what it wants most of the time. Especially since World War II, the services have become very skillful at exploiting the media and at manipulating the Congress—particularly on the defense budget, which is estimated now to be equal to that of the entire rest of the world combined.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that we can’t imagine a scenario leading to a coup:

LUTTWAK: Such a scenario would probably play out through a multi-stage transformation. After all, take any group of nice people on a trip; if five bad things happen to them in a row, they will end up as cannibals. How many adverse events are needed before a political system, arguably the most firmly rooted constitutional system in the history of the world, becomes uprooted? How many September 11ths, on what scale? How much panic, what kind of leadership? All of us can say that it is foolish to talk of a coup in the United States, but any of us could design a scenario by which a coup becomes possible.

Americans trust their military:

DUNLAP: Americans today have an incredible trust in the military. In poll after poll they have much more confidence in the armed forces than they do in other institutions. The most recent poll, just this past spring, had trust in the military at 74 percent, while Congress was at 22 percent and the presidency was at 44 percent. In other words, the armed forces are much more trusted than the civilian institutions that are supposed to control them.

The Holy Grail in a Grain of Rice

Tuesday, June 27th, 2006

Dr. Henry I. Miller descrobes The Holy Grail in a Grain of Rice:

The researchers found that when lactoferrin and lysozyme are added to rice-based oral rehydration solution, the duration of children’s illness is cut from more than five days to three and two-thirds. This improvement is thought to be caused by the antimicrobial effect of lysozyme, which has long been known to be one of the primary protective proteins in breast milk. Moreover, over the twelve-month follow-up period, the children who had received the lactoferrin and lysozyme had less than half the recurrence rate of diarrhea (eight percent versus eighteen percent in the controls). This effect is probably caused by lactoferrin, which promotes repair of the cells of the intestinal mucosa damaged by diarrhea.

These developments represent significant progress in managing diarrhea and keeping it from becoming a chronic, recurring health risk.

What makes this approach feasible is Ventria’s invention of a method to produce human lactoferrin and lysozyme in genetically modified rice, a process dubbed “biopharming.” This is an inexpensive and ingenious way to synthesize the huge quantities of the proteins that will be necessary. (In effect, the rice plants’ inputs are carbon dioxide, water and the sun’s energy.)

Naturally this “holy grail” is the target of protests.

That’s Your Cue

Tuesday, June 27th, 2006

In That’s Your Cue, Arnold Kling argues that many bits of religious and political dogma serve as “trust cues” to enable teamwork with strangers — and that’s why rational empiricism rarely wins out:

The most trustworthy groups are groups where membership is valuable and excommunication is costly. They are groups that monitor the behavior of their members closely.

The most trustworthy individuals are individuals who regularly show a willingness to sacrifice for the group. Attending religious worship every week, paying a tithe, and participating in ritual fasts are examples of demonstrating religious loyalty. These sorts of sacrifices are indicators that the individual values membership in the group, and they show that the individual would fear excommunication from the group.

The best trust cues are those that can be presented at low cost by members of the group but would be costly to fake for non-members. Thus, odd dialects and unusual phrases can serve as trust cues.

Not Yours To Give

Monday, June 26th, 2006

Not Yours To Give was originally published in The Life of Colonel David Crockett, by Edward Sylvester Ellis:

One day in the House of Representatives a bill was taken up appropriating money for the benefit of a widow of a distinguished naval officer. Several beautiful speeches had been made in its support. The speaker was just about to put the question when Crockett arose:

“Mr. Speaker — I have as much respect for the memory of the deceased, and as much sympathy for the suffering of the living, if there be, as any man in this House, but we must not permit our respect for the dead or our sympathy for part of the living to lead us into an act of injustice to the balance of the living. I will not go into an argument to prove that Congress has not the power to appropriate this money as an act of charity. Every member on this floor knows it.

We have the right as individuals, to give away as much of our own money as we please in charity; but as members of Congress we have no right to appropriate a dollar of the public money. Some eloquent appeals have been made to us upon the ground that it is a debt due the deceased. Mr. Speaker, the deceased lived long after the close of the war; he was in office to the day of his death, and I ever heard that the government was in arrears to him.

“Every man in this House knows it is not a debt. We cannot without the grossest corruption, appropriate this money as the payment of a debt. We have not the semblance of authority to appropriate it as charity. Mr. Speaker, I have said we have the right to give as much money of our own as we please. I am the poorest man on this floor. I cannot vote for this bill, but I will give one week’s pay to the object, and if every member of Congress will do the same, it will amount to more than the bill asks.”

We will be able to live to 1,000

Monday, June 26th, 2006

Aubrey de Grey has long been saying that We will be able to live to 1,000. The news is that BBC News is publishing his piece:

If you are a reasonably risk-aware teenager today in an affluent, non-violent neighbourhood, you have a risk of dying in the next year of well under one in 1,000, which means that if you stayed that way forever you would have a 50/50 chance of living to over 1,000.

And remember, none of that time would be lived in frailty and debility and dependence — you would be youthful, both physically and mentally, right up to the day you mis-time the speed of that oncoming lorry.

Geeks and Math Nerds are Taking Over Poker

Monday, June 26th, 2006

They used to rule over geek-staples like Magic the Gathering and any number of computer games, but now Geeks and Math Nerds are Taking Over Poker:

David Williams, who came in second behind Greg Raymer in the 2004 World Series of Poker, was a well-known Magic player before he ventured into poker. His appearance at the World Series of Poker wasn’t a fluke; he has final tabled numerous major events since then.

Elky, a well-known and very successful online player, was one of the top Starcraft players in the world before he saw the potential in online poker and switched his game of choice.

Actionjeff, one of the most successful players online (at only 18 years of age, he has already won close to a million dollars online) was at one time the highest ranked Magic player in the US.

Dan Osman

Monday, June 26th, 2006

Rock-climber Dan Osman performs a “free solo” — that means he uses no ropes, harness, or other “protection” — of Bear’s Reach, in California.

It’s just a 5.7 climb, not at all difficult for an experienced climber, but he’s doing it for speed.

Nation’s Elite AWOL From Military

Monday, June 26th, 2006

From Nation’s Elite AWOL From Military:

As recently as 1956, 400 members of Princeton’s graduating class went on to serve in the military. In 2004, nine graduates did so. Harvard, Yale, Brown and other elite universities don’t even allow Reserve Officer Training Courses on their campuses.

In the years after World War II, virtually every member of Congress was a veteran of military service. By 1971, three-quarters of the members had worn the uniform. Today, only a third of the 535 members of the Senate and the House of Representatives have served.

The consequences:

  • Not having veterans throughout the decision-making process damages the country’s ability to make sound decisions on the use of our military. Without them, the political leadership has less understanding of the true cost of war and who pays that price.
  • Any division between the military and the rest of us weakens the country and, the authors argue, increases the risk that the military “will be overused and under-led and that support will run out fast for any project that becomes a political liability.”
  • Finally, “When those who benefit most from living in a country contribute the least to its defense and those who benefit least are asked to pay the ultimate price, something happens to the soul of that country.”

Ethanol Investing: Counterpoint

Monday, June 26th, 2006

In Ethanol Investing: Counterpoint, Robert Rapier, a chemical engineer who has worked on alternative fuels, explains two common misconceptions about ethanol:

The first misconception is that ethanol has the potential to make us energy independent, or to displace significant amounts of foreign oil. The second is that Brazil’s energy independence “miracle” can be replicated in the U.S.

On the first point:

According to a 2002 USDA report on corn ethanol, “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update”, it takes 77,228 BTUs of fossil fuel inputs (natural gas, gasoline, and diesel) to produce 83,961 BTUs of ethanol. This gives a ratio of ethanol output/fossil fuel inputs of only 1.09.

On the second point:

The question then arises: “Just how much did widespread use of ethanol in Brazil contribute toward their energy independence?” The answer is: “Not much”. In 2005, Brazil produced 4.8 billion gallons of ethanol, or 114 million barrels. However, a barrel of ethanol contains approximately 3.5 million BTUs, and a barrel of oil contains approximately 6 million BTUs. Therefore, 114 million barrels of ethanol only displaced 67 million barrels of oil, around 10% of Brazil’s oil consumption. In other words, Brazil’s energy independence miracle was 10% ethanol and 90% domestic crude oil production. Brazil did not farm their way to energy independence.

Mark Sisson on Steroids in Sports

Sunday, June 25th, 2006

Art De Vany reprints a letter from Mark Sisson on Steroids in Sports, explaining why the notion of a fair playing field is a farce:

Hard training raises EPO and hematocrit, but drug companies also make artificial EPO which does the same thing without training (intended medical use is for recovery from chemotherapy which destroys RBCs). Artificial EPO is banned. Now here’s the irony: research confirms that if you train at sea level and sleep at 14,000 feet, your body makes red blood cells at an impressive rate and amount. Several companies have developed expensive “altitude chambers” for home use where you can now train at sea level and then retire to your room for the night, simulating an altitude of 14,000 feet or higher. The end result is that you have, within the letter of the law, manipulated your own EPO to artificially raise hematocrit, yet using artificial EPO to do the same thing is punishable by a 2-year suspension. Talk to an endurance athlete from a developing nation with $2 to his name about THAT level playing field.