Good and Bad Procrastination

Monday, December 26th, 2005

Paul Graham contrasts Good and Bad Procrastination:

What’s “small stuff?” Roughly, work that has zero chance of being mentioned in your obituary. It’s hard to say at the time what will turn out to be your best work (will it be your magnum opus on Sumerian temple architecture, or the detective thriller you wrote under a pseudonym?), but there’s a whole class of tasks you can safely rule out: shaving, doing your laundry, cleaning the house, writing thank-you notes — anything that might be called an errand.

Good procrastination is avoiding errands to do real work.

His key point:

The reason it pays to put off even those errands [which get worse if you put them off] is that real work needs two things errands don’t: big chunks of time, and the right mood. If you get inspired by some project, it can be a net win to blow off everything you were supposed to do for the next few days to work on it. Yes, those errands may cost you more time when you finally get around to them. But if you get a lot done during those few days, you will be net more productive.

More poetically:

People who fail to write novels don’t do it by sitting in front of a blank page for days without writing anything. They do it by feeding the cat, going out to buy something they need for their apartment, meeting a friend for coffee, checking email. “I don’t have time to work,” they say. And they don’t; they’ve made sure of that.

As Richard Hamming asked, What’s the best thing you could be working on, and why aren’t you?

The Other American Exceptionalism

Monday, December 26th, 2005

Gerard Alexander describes The Other American Exceptionalism:

In most European countries, the median voter is both less religious and more dependent on government than the median voter in the United States. This tugs American politics to the right and European politics to the left.

Conservative views on Market vs. State:

American conservatives believe that a healthy modern economy is so complex and innovative that most economic decisions have to take place in the private sector, where scattered information is located, and risk may be rewarded or punished. Government is best at enforcing rules of the game and engaging in limited redistribution. When it does much more than that, it creates inefficient regulations and bureaucracies prone to expanding rather than learning.

Some numbers:

The result is that average U.S. per capita income is now about 55% higher than the average of the European Union’s core 15 countries (it expanded to 25 in 2004). In fact, the biggest E.U. countries have per capita incomes comparable to America’s poorest states. A recent study by two Swedish economists found that if the United Kingdom, France, or Italy suddenly were admitted to the American union, any one of them would rank as the 5th poorest of the 50 states, ahead only of West Virginia, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Montana. Ireland, the second richest E.U. country, would be the 13th poorest state; Sweden the 6th poorest. The study found that 40% of all Swedish households would classify as low-income by American standards.

Conservative views on Predators versus leftist European views:

By and large, American conservatives believe that although international conflicts may arise from uncertainty, misunderstanding, and mutual threats, they usually result from simple predation, power-hunger, and hatred. Global cooperation is possible when would-be predators are deterred, which requires muscular firmness. Democracies are uniquely suited to be enforcers of international order because they are least likely to be its transgressors—which is the reason Americans have traditionally championed an integrated and assertive Europe, instead of seeing it as a threat.

Some Europeans share this view, including most British and many Dutch and Danish conservatives, as well as Blair and other Laborites. Once upon a time, the Gaullists thought like this, and José María Aznar and other Spanish conservatives do so still. But most European governments now practice what Americans would recognize as a liberal foreign policy. This is not so much because Europeans inhabit what Robert Kagan calls a “post-historical paradise of peace and relative prosperity.” Instead they insist on seeing misperception, insecurity, and pride as the root of most international conflicts, which accordingly are best defused by reassurance and the careful avoidance of confrontation, ultimatums, and threats. The Spanish government’s response to the Madrid bombings — hasty withdrawal from Iraq — was denounced as appeasement by most Americans, but not by most Europeans. Of course, the British response to the London bombings has been quite different, at least so far.

Some factoids:

American conservatives believe that the deterrent approach toward international predators should be firmly applied to would-be domestic predators as well. One might expect the same sensibility in Europe, given high crime rates there. Despite enduring stereotypes to the contrary, Europeans now match or surpass America in most crimes, including violent ones (except murder and, to a lesser degree, rape). In per capita terms, Belgium has more assaults than the U.S., the Netherlands nearly the same number, and France is rising fast. England and Wales have more robberies, the Dutch almost as many, and England and Denmark beat America in per capita burglaries and (here joined by the French) in theft and auto theft. After lecturing Americans that expensive welfare states would ensure social peace, many Europeans now find themselves saddled with both high welfare costs and high crime, while American crime rates have dropped. Western Europeans have met high crime rates with policing and prisons, of course, but more notably with multicultural appeals, jobs programs, and policies aimed at “social insertion” of the alienated. As Theodore Dalrymple explains, such policies transmit the message that criminals are victims, too, and their actions understandable responses to trying circumstances. The result, as in foreign policy, is a lack of resolve among the virtuous, wink-and-nod cynicism among offenders, and excuse-making by everyone.

Voting and the Feminine Mystique

Monday, December 26th, 2005

Voting and the Feminine Mystique reports on a new study that shows that parents of daughters are more likely to vote left-wing:

Professor Oswald and Dr Powdthavee drew their data from the British Household Panel Survey, which has monitored 10,000 adults in 5,500 households each year since 1991 and is regarded as an accurate tracker of social and economic change. Among parents with two children who voted for the Left (Labour or Lib Dem), the mean number of daughters was higher than the mean number of sons. The same applied to parents with three or four children. Of those parents with three sons and no daughters, 67 per cent voted Left. In households with three daughters and no sons, the figure was 77 per cent.

But it was the “switchers” who provided the most compelling evidence. By examining declared voting preferences for the period 1991 to 2004, Professor Oswald and Dr Powdthavee found that 539 people switched from Left to Right, and 802 switched from Right to Left. The most significant difference between these two groups of switchers? The voters who swung from Right to Left had borne, on average, more daughters.

Professor Oswald, the father of two daughters, sat on the results for three months. He decided to release them this week, after finding the same pattern in German households.

"For God’s Sake, Please Stop the Aid!"

Monday, December 26th, 2005

Kenyan economist James Shikwati pleads, For God’s Sake, Please Stop the Aid!:

Huge bureaucracies are financed (with the aid money), corruption and complacency are promoted, Africans are taught to be beggars and not to be independent. In addition, development aid weakens the local markets everywhere and dampens the spirit of entrepreneurship that we so desperately need. As absurd as it may sound: Development aid is one of the reasons for Africa’s problems. If the West were to cancel these payments, normal Africans wouldn’t even notice. Only the functionaries would be hard hit. Which is why they maintain that the world would stop turning without this development aid.

The Monarch and Henchmen 21 & 24 Sing the Christmas Blues

Wednesday, December 21st, 2005

IGN Film Force’s Holiday Havoc Day 13 features the Monarch and Henchmen 21 & 24 (from Venture Bros.) singing Hard Candy Christmas.

Stalin’s half-man, half-ape super-warriors

Tuesday, December 20th, 2005

I’m not sure what to say about Stalin’s half-man, half-ape super-warriors:

Moscow archives show that in the mid-1920s Russia’s top animal breeding scientist, Ilya Ivanov, was ordered to turn his skills from horse and animal work to the quest for a super-warrior.

According to Moscow newspapers, Stalin told the scientist: ‘I want a new invincible human being, insensitive to pain, resistant and indifferent about the quality of food they eat.’
[...]
Mr Ivanov was highly regarded. He had established his reputation under the Tsar when in 1901 he established the world’s first centre for the artificial insemination of racehorses.

Mr Ivanov’s ideas were music to the ears of Soviet planners and in 1926 he was dispatched to West Africa with $200,000 to conduct his first experiment in impregnating chimpanzees.

Meanwhile, a centre for the experiments was set up in Georgia — Stalin’s birthplace — for the apes to be raised.

Mr Ivanov’s experiments, unsurprisingly from what we now know, were a total failure. He returned to the Soviet Union, only to see experiments in Georgia to use monkey sperm in human volunteers similarly fail.

A final attempt to persuade a Cuban heiress to lend some of her monkeys for further experiments reached American ears, with the New York Times reporting on the story, and she dropped the idea amid the uproar.

The Undercover Economist on Wealth and Change

Monday, December 19th, 2005

Nick Schulz interviews Tim Harford, The Undercover Economist, who explains that “if you would like to be rich and have nothing change, then you will be disappointed”:

I start by looking at the medieval city of Bruges which was the richest city in Northwestern Europe, in the 13th, 14th, 15th centuries. And it was rich because of trade. People shipped goods from all over Europe. They were traded in Bruges. Bruges was the sight of the first stock exchange.

Tall ships sailed up and down the river’s (wind). And then one day the river Zwin started to silt up. And Bruges was cut off from the world economy and just didn’t change for 500 years. So this to the metaphor of what happens if the anti-globalizers get their wish. What happens if the protectionists get their wish? The river silts up. And basically all the trade moves to Antwerp.

Bruges is now bustling only because of tourists who come to see what a presently preserved 15th century city looks like. And they admire this beautiful architecture that these guys who were once incredibly wealthy, what did they put up? And now in Bruges basically you can get very nice chocolates and beer there. And it is a beautiful place. But it is just tourists sites.

So I say you can be rich like Bruges in the 13th to 15th centuries, or you can have nothing changed like Bruges from the 16th through the 20th centuries. But you know you can’t be rich and have nothing change. Because economic change is dynamic.

The takeaway message:

The way I like to think about the impact of trade — you can point to a town where people are people are put out of work because what they did has now been shipped off to China. And the suffering is very real. But so was the suffering of secretaries who typed when they were all put out of business by Microsoft Word. We don’t look back and say, if only Word Perfect had never been invented. All those girls would still be down in the typing pool typing away. They would still have those jobs.

Those jobs have been lost. Well yes those jobs have been lost. But we don’t mourn the passing of those jobs even though the day when they got their unemployment slips was a painful day for them. And some people maybe never recovered. But a lot of people would have retrained, got better jobs. And certainly as a whole America was better off from not having erected high barriers against Microsoft.

A new technology is actually just the same as a new trade. China might just as well be some futuristic factory just off the coast of California for all its economic effects. We just ship all our stuff off the coast of California. It goes into the factory that is just floating outside Los Angeles. And all this great stuff comes back. For the economic effects on the United States, it makes no difference.

So we shouldn’t be afraid of trade any more than we are afraid of technology. It has real effect. It does hurt people. But overall the effects are very positive.

Tim Harford also looks at economic development and the effectiveness of foreign aid, because, frankly, we don’t know which aid agencies are doing a good job:

What about randomized trials? You could — say you want to improve school performance in Kenya. Well, you could give out textbooks to half the schools. And measure the results. This is the half that got the textbooks and the half that didn’t.

One charity actually did this as a randomized control trial the same way that you would evaluate a new pharmaceutical product. And they found textbooks didn’t really help. So they tried again. They said OK, we’re going to supply teachers with flip charts, whiteboards, and marker pens. That didn’t work either. They tried something else. They said OK, we’re going to give the kids de-worming tablets so that the tapeworm that infects a lot of these kids is going to be killed. The kids are going to be better nourished. They will be able to better concentrate in schools. Now that worked. That worked big time.

And to me those two failures of the textbooks and the flipcharts, they were tremendously successful failures. Because we learned something.

The Rock Star’s Burden

Monday, December 19th, 2005

In The Rock Star’s Burden, Paul Theroux says that Bono “not only believes that he has the solution to Africa’s ills, he is also shouting so loud that other people seem to trust his answers”:

If Malawi is worse educated, more plagued by illness and bad services, poorer than it was when I lived and worked there in the early 60′s, it is not for lack of outside help or donor money. Malawi has been the beneficiary of many thousands of foreign teachers, doctors and nurses, and large amounts of financial aid, and yet it has declined from a country with promise to a failed state.

In the early and mid-1960′s, we believed that Malawi would soon be self-sufficient in schoolteachers. And it would have been, except that rather than sending a limited wave of volunteers to train local instructors, for decades we kept on sending Peace Corps teachers. Malawians, who avoided teaching because the pay and status were low, came to depend on the American volunteers to teach in bush schools, while educated Malawians emigrated. When Malawi’s university was established, more foreign teachers were welcomed, few of them replaced by Malawians, for political reasons. Medical educators also arrived from elsewhere. Malawi began graduating nurses, but the nurses were lured away to Britain and Australia and the United States, which meant more foreign nurses were needed in Malawi.

When Malawi’s minister of education was accused of stealing millions of dollars from the education budget in 2000, and the Zambian president was charged with stealing from the treasury, and Nigeria squandered its oil wealth, what happened? The simplifiers of Africa’s problems kept calling for debt relief and more aid. I got a dusty reception lecturing at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation when I pointed out the successes of responsible policies in Botswana, compared with the kleptomania of its neighbors. Donors enable embezzlement by turning a blind eye to bad governance, rigged elections and the deeper reasons these countries are failing.

Mr. Gates has said candidly that he wants to rid himself of his burden of billions. Bono is one of his trusted advisers. Mr. Gates wants to send computers to Africa – an unproductive not to say insane idea. I would offer pencils and paper, mops and brooms: the schools I have seen in Malawi need them badly. I would not send more teachers.

King Kong, the Ultimate Fighting Champion

Sunday, December 18th, 2005

I first saw King Kong — the original — at age 14 or so, well before I knew anything about real martial arts. (I believe I had a couple years of strip-mall McDojo kempo under my brown belt.) It struck me as a better movie than I expected, with much better special effects than I expected for a movie from the 1930s.

Years later I found myself at a ritzy party where the host was playing classic movies throughout the house, when I started watching Kong’s famous bout with the T-Rex — and I noticed that Kong had just shot in for a single-leg takedown.

And he circled to take Rex down. He was using legitimate grappling techniques! Naturally I couldn’t stop watching.

Throughout the match Kong ties up Rex. I suppose the head-and-arm tie-up has unique strengths and weaknesses against a dinosaur with very big teeth and very small arms.

At one point he actually steps in and hip-tosses the big lizard.

After taking Rex down with a sagging headlock, he goes for the ground-and-pound, but Rex gets his legs in — classic jiu-jitsu — and pushes him away. (OK, it’s not quite a black-belt’s open guard, but it’s something.)

In the subsequent scramble, Kong hops on Rex’s back and goes for the rear naked choke. (Note: “naked” because it doesn’t use the opponent’s collar or lapel; known as mata leão or kill the lion in Portuguese.)

Finally, after snapping Rex’s jaw and breaking his neck, Kong stands victorious, roaring and beating his chest — just like any good mixed-martial arts (MMA) victor in UFC or Pride.

I recommend watching the whole fight (7.45 MB).

Edit: I’d been wondering how and why that fight scene was so well choreographed. I had assumed that the stop-motion animators were working from footage of pro wrestlers (back when the bouts were fairly credible). It turns out there’s an even better explanation (from IMDB):

Both Merian C. Cooper and Ernest B. Schoedsack had been wrestlers, and they acted out the fighting moves for the battle between the T Rex and Kong in the effects studio, before the animators shot the scene.

Edit: A Danish jiu-jitsu purple-belt by the name of Christian Berger Graugart has posted the footage to YouTube — with no reference to this page. Sigh.

Edit 2: Christian Berger Graugart has updated his post to reference to this page. Huzzah!

Media Photoshop Retouching

Sunday, December 18th, 2005

Media Photoshop Retouching explains that “the number of tricks used to achieve the increasingly exaggerated ideals is growing,” and demonstrates all the work done on a typical magazine cover photo, stepping through the eyes, lips, nose, hair, breasts, waist, etc.

Illustration Magazine

Sunday, December 18th, 2005

I just discovered Illustration Magazine, via Boing Boing, and their archive includes PDF versions of their older issues and thumbnails of their more recent issues.

As they say:

Illustration is a beautiful, educational, and scholarly magazine devoted to the history of American illustration art. Published quarterly and printed in full color, each issue features the highest quality printing, photography and color reproductions of original art available anywhere.


For those with an interest in popular culture, commercial art and design, publishing history, comic books, paperbacks, pulp magazines, or collecting original art, Illustration is the best source for new information on the illustrators of the past.

ESPN Courts Female Viewers With World’s Emotionally Strongest Man Competition

Saturday, December 17th, 2005

ESPN Courts Female Viewers With World’s Emotionally Strongest Man Competition:

The hour-long weekly show, which will run opposite ABC’s Monday Night Football, features an international cast of powerfully caring, emotionally resilient, deeply sensitive men pushing themselves and each other to the limit with astounding feats of inner strength in domestic settings around the country.

I haven’t been keeping up with The Onion.

The Great Xbox Shortage of 2005

Friday, December 16th, 2005

Tim Harford (The Undercover Economist) explains Why you can’t buy the one present you really need, in The Great Xbox Shortage of 2005, and explains what Microsoft should have done:

Microsoft has got it wrong, too, but they have missed out on a far more obvious opportunity. Why didn’t they sell their initial supply of Xbox consoles, packaged as a ‘limited edition,’ using online auctions? All the while they would promise $300 consoles as soon as stocks were available. Since at an auction the price is set by the buyers, not the seller, Microsoft could have made a killing, absolutely guilt-free, and created no more annoyed, empty-handed customers than they have with their current strategy.

Mightier Than the Pen

Thursday, December 15th, 2005

In Mightier Than the Pen, Matt Pottinger explains why he left his position as a Wall Street Journal correspondent in China to join the Marines:

It’s a cliché that you appreciate your own country more when you live abroad, but it happens to be true. Living in China for the last seven years, I’ve seen that country take a giant leap from a struggling Third World country into a true world power. For many people it still comes as a surprise to learn that China is chasing Japan as the second-largest economy on the globe and could soon own a trillion dollars of American debt.

But living in China also shows you what a nondemocratic country can do to its citizens. I’ve seen protesters tackled and beaten by plainclothes police in Tiananmen Square, and I’ve been videotaped by government agents while I was talking to a source. I’ve been arrested and forced to flush my notes down a toilet to keep the police from getting them, and I’ve been punched in the face in a Beijing Starbucks by a government goon who was trying to keep me from investigating a Chinese company’s sale of nuclear fuel to other countries.

When you live abroad long enough, you come to understand that governments that behave this way are not the exception, but the rule. They feel alien to us, but from the viewpoint of the world’s population, we are the aliens, not them. That makes you think about protecting your country no matter who you are or what you’re doing. What impresses you most, when you don’t have them day to day, are the institutions that distinguish the U.S.: the separation of powers, a free press, the right to vote, and a culture that values civic duty and service, to name but a few.

The Marines generally don’t take on 31-year-old desk-jockies as officers:

He said if I wanted a shot at this I’d have to ace the physical fitness test, where a perfect score consisted of 20 pull-ups, 100 crunches in two minutes, and a three-mile run in 18 minutes. Essentially he was telling me to pack it in and go home. After assuring him I didn’t have a criminal record or any tattoos, either of which would have required yet another waiver (my age already required the first), I took an application and went back to China.

Can computers predict which movies will flop?

Thursday, December 15th, 2005

Can computers predict which movies will flop?:

Sharda, an expert in information systems, has been working on the model for seven years and analyzed more than 800 films before publishing a paper that appears in the February 2006 issue of the journal Expert Systems With Applications.

Sharda applied seven criteria to each movie: its rating by censors, competition from other films at the time of release, strength of the cast, genre, special effects, whether it is a sequel and the number of theaters it opens in.

Using a neural network to process the results, the films are placed in one of nine categories, ranging from ‘flop,’ meaning less than $1 million at the box office, to ‘blockbuster,’ meaning more than $200 million.

The results of the study showed that 37 percent of the time the network accurately predicted which category the film fell into, and 75 percent of the time was within one category of the correct answer. Among the correct predictions: ‘Spider-Man’ and ‘Shrek’ were rated as blockbusters, while ‘Waking Up in Reno’ and ‘Running Free’ were pegged as flops.